With yet another round of Hurricanes and Oilers trade rumors popping up after the Leon Draisaitl extension, today’s Daily Cup of Joe considered the balance of patience and urgency for Hurricanes general manager Ron Francis.
Aside from more micro-level individual player, trade and transaction decisions, this balance between patience (trusting the youth in the prospect pool) and urgency (making moves to add veterans to win now), will likely prove to be the biggest ‘hindsight is 20/20’ item for the 2017-18 season. The range of potential outcomes runs the gamut. Francis could go with what he has, and it could easily prove to be enough to push into the playoffs. At the same time, it could fall short. He could add one more impact player only to find out that the younger players actually present better options.
The Monday Coffee Shop focuses on this subject and asks readers to chime in on where Francis should be on the patience versus urgency continuum.
Carolina Hurricanes polls
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Discussion questions
Rather than putting forward a specific set of questions, let’s do two things.
1) What are your thoughts on anything related to the patience versus urgency dilemma facing Ron Francis?
2) Add your own question on this or anything else for other readers to comment on.
Go Canes!
Like most things in life, it is a case of balance. And even aphorisms seem to reflect this:
He who hesitates is lost. Look before your leap. Fortune favors the bold. Slow and steady wins the race.
However, for GMRF there is a little more guidance. He is part of a business, so money is paramount. So the only deal that makes sense is one that is affordable for the entire length of the deal. For example, Toronto might be sacrificing one of it young stars with Marleau’s contract. I would not want Carolina to sign a “top center” only to lose the flexibility to sign both Skinner and Aho in two year.
My personal take is that the organization did what was imperative already: added a top goaltender; added a forward who can score and improve the team every shift on the ice; turn two weaknesses (fourth line center and one RHD) into at least modest strengths. This was accomplished while maintaining a talented and DEEP prospect pool.
This year’s team is much better than the past several teams. There will be options next off-season to “seize the moment” (for instance Bryan Little will be a UFA and might sign a 2 or 3 year contract, thus adding both an additional piece while Williams is on the team and also giving the prospects more time to develop).
IMO GMRF has hit the sweet spot so far.
My additional question is:
With 2 more centers (Roy & Kuokkanen) coming soon and potentially trying out at center next season, do we want to add another 2C to the roster?
RNH would be an upgrade over Ryan but is it worth the cap issues? IMO, no. It’s getting a 1C or nothing for me. Duchene is a fringe 1C. His FO% is league leading which is well above RNH.
Im for the slow method as it is working (thank you scout team for hitting on some big time 2nd, 3rd and 4th rounders). I don’t want to miss the playoffs again. I hope to see GMRF go patient into the first month(s) to evaluate some key players.
Fleury- does he look ready? Is he showing flashes of being a good defender?
Hanifin- how is he progressing?
Fleury vs Hanifin- who has the most value? Who do we want to keep long term?
Roy, Gauthier, and Kuokkanen- How do they look? When do they look ready to move up?
Lindholm and Rask- are they looking like top forwards consistently?
Answering those questions and we decide the next move quickly. If Fleury looks ready now, maybe we maximize Hanifin’s value and get a top forward. Whether it is a right winger or center will depend on the other questions. Maybe the young checker forwards look like they will be ready next season plus Lindholm and Rask are playing well. We should only target a 1C. Maybe everyone is clicking and we hold for a later veteran pickup for cheap at the deadline. A lot of variables but the growth of the team and evaluation of the prospects in the early months should decide our next move(s).
Trying out Aho at center next season, my bad.
The Canes primary problem in the last 7 or 8 years has been that they manage to be good enough to avoid tanking (and therefore miss out on the essential top talent that comes with having top picks in a draft) while not being good enough to make it into the playoffs.
And, for this season, it seems like the CAnes have signaled to the fans that this is the year they want to take it to the next level and make the playoffs.
They have done it by signing JW as a very capable winger, made a bet on Darling as a capable NHL goalie, and filled all the role player roster spots on both third and forth lines with NHL players.
The team has transitioned from “give the kids a chance to learn a lesson and the team to get a good pick nextyear” to “we need proven talent to get proven results”.
I think another season of being one or two spots outside the playoffsis the worstpossible scenario for the fans, but I still think, barring pleasant surprises from our prospects, that this is where the Canes are likely headed.
There is a lot of promise, but if we look aroun the league there are no Canes players in any of the top 5 lists: centers, wingers, defenseman, goalies. We have seen that such high end talent players are truly the difference makers (look at Pit and Chicago).
Our scouting has done a fantastic job in the second and third rounds, but you rarely find generational talent in those rounds (compared with top 5 picks), and the Canes simply haven’t sucked enough to shop in that bargain bin.
As a one time #1 pick I think RNH is worth a shot. With the salary inflation around the league his 6m cap hit may prove a bargain in as little as 2 years.
I think he has not been given the quality of line mates to really show what he is capable off, and that the best is yet to come for him.
If not, I think a short-term contract for a free agent forward or a trade to bring in a veteran with 1 or two years remaining is something the Canes should do to go all in.
If the Canes start does not doom them it is quite possible that such a bargain might be available by December from a team that has tanked, but waiting on it is risky.
The first few years of the Ron Francis era were mostly defined by cleaning up legacy contract issues and stockpiling futures knowing that the team would not realistically have the skill or depth to be all that competitive. That’s a stage for patience. I think we’re now through that stage.
I think we’ve entered a new phase, where we have very clean and reasonable contracts, young and talented players that are still getting better – in some cases much better – complemented by experienced Cup-Winners, with a very deep prospect pool. GMRF has systematically improved the team, year over year, and we now have our best team in quite some time. We should be very competitive this year with a realistic goal of making the playoffs, but we’re not a lock by any means. I don’t think this is a stage for patience anymore but we’re not quite at the point of urgency either.
It seems to me, though, that the real window to make a deep run is either 2018-19 or 2019-20 – the Cap won’t really be an issue before then giving us the wherewithal to make opportunistic or even decisive moves to obtain the one/two players that might put us over the edge if they don’t come from our own prospects rising up through the system. This is when I see the need for urgency.
I think GMRF has struck the exact right balance so far: patience in the early years; somewhat less of it now; and urgency to come soon. I think we just all hope that we have the need to be more urgent because we’re ahead of plan.
Breezy and dmiller make excellent points. My only point of departure would be that the organization may never have to become much more urgent. Top 5 players are likely never available for trade. And winning the bidding for such a UFA will hasten hitting the cap.
Both Ottawa and Nashville almost dethroned Pittsburgh with rosters similar to Carolina.
Washington is an example that urgency doesn’t always result in more success.
I may be alone, but having a team that competes this year and should improve each of the next five years is a perfect blend of urgency and patience.
I think we’re all with you.
I am as optimistic and excited about the start of this season as I have been since around 2013, or whenever we thought Semin was the answer (I try to forget the lockout season).
And, to be fair, I think the Penguins had more than their fair share of puck luck in this year’s run to the cup.
Their top talent did come through to scor the OT goal against the Sense (then again, people could argue it was ultimately just luck).
* Nashville was missing their #1 center, Ryan Johansen.
* The refereeing in the playoffs pathetically favored the Pens (at least two Nashville goals were incorrectly waved off), these things are a game changer.
But, the Pens won the cup because they have two centers in a class of their own and their goalies got hot at the right time. Their defense was anything but great.
This is why I would feel even better with one more elite offensive player in the mix.
Our offense needs one more key piece, a top 6 C/W who can help catapult this team over the hump. RNH is certainly an option, amongst others we have mentioned this summer. Do we have this piece already in the young kids, perhaps? But do we want to hope or be more assured for this year? Neither option assures success, but which one has more assurances?
GMRF is smart and knows this. I think this is why he has mentioned several times he is open to making a move that makes sense and the team better. Ending a long playoff drought makes sense to Peters and everyone involved. It makes sense to the fan base and potential new ownership group. Which is why I don’t believe GMRF is going to mess around with hope…he will put every assurance within reason into acquiring more assurances. He’s done a great job of this so far, and I believe he is not finished.
This doesn’t mean sell the farm for pricey veterans…it simply means we are capable of taking on salary the next few years, understanding not every current roster player or prospect will be due big paydays. We will most definitely lose a key piece and more over the next five years whether through prospect development or via trade to fill other needs.
For instance, Roy could be Staal’s replacement, Williams is only a 2-year deal, Ward will retire (that’s $13+ mil savings right there). We may also trade a Faulk or Hanifin in a couple years for other needs. This is why I don’t worry about re-signing Aho or Skinner. We can speculate on a fixed roster and project far out, but rosters and salaries are variables year to year, while needs change. The good teams deal with this all the time. The time is now to make the playoffs…GMRF knows this and has set the table for success. The fun begins!
Breezy and lfod have it RIGHT! Hoping we’ve done enough…when we know we can do more is DUMB IMO… Money is STILL NOT THE ISSUE!
Being sure WE DON’T FAIL…IS!
Fan patience…is running VERY VERY THIN……