The big news last week was the trade of Jeff Skinner to the Buffalo Sabres for a prospect and four draft picks. I covered the on-ice and locker room angles on that trade HERE.
Just like with the trade with Calgary, the trade prompts the question, “What’s next?”
A plan in process
On July 3 before the signing of Calvin de Haan, I suggested that a series of three moves that I believed would remake the Carolina Hurricanes roster heading into the 2018-19 season.
You can read the article for a deeper dive on the rationale, but the upshot was two somewhat similar scenarios including this one:
Justin Faulk is traded for a scoring forward => Calvin deHaan is signed as a free agent => Jeff Skinner is traded primarily for high-end futures possibly with a depth forward or defenseman included
By adding de Haan via free agency instead of trade, this version of dealing sees the Hurricanes replace Faulk, replace Skinner and still net a nice pile of futures to boot.
The order is off, but two of the three deals have happened with Calvin de Haan being signed as a free agent and Jeff Skinner being traded for futures.
The last piece – Justin Faulk
During the rounds of interviews following the Jeff Skinner trade, General Manager Don Waddell said that he was happy with the team and ready to enter the season with Justin Faulk in tow.
And I have a bridge to sell you…
Because Justin Faulk is under contract for two years, there is no John Tavares game of chicken pressure as there was with Jeff Skinner. It is true that the Hurricanes could enter the 2017-18 still with Justin Faulk and at least in terms of taking on risk of losing him for nothing, that would be okay.
But I think all that means is that if there really is just no reasonable offer right now, the team could go the Matt Duchene route and just hope to wait it out for better offers.
But that is a far cry from saying that the team in any way wants to go this route. The reasons for doing the last of the three deals that I proposed actually increased with the Skinner trade:
1) The need to replace Jeff Skinner
Though Waddell would never say so, the departure of Jeff Skinner, with only rookies available to fill the slot, does leave the team even lighter on proven NHL scoring. If the team hopes to push for the playoffs in 2018-19 and not instead go the route of a rebuild and a roll of the dice (on the rebuild happening ahead of schedule), then the team really needs to add another proven player to replace Skinner.
2) Justin Faulk is an expensive duplicate on the current blue line
If you put salary to the side, Justin Faulk would fit very nicely into the Hurricanes lineup as a decent third pairing defenseman who would boost the power play. But you do not invest $4.8 million of salary cap hit in that narrow role. And in terms of just being a third right shot defenseman for the third defense pairing, I do not think Faulk is enough of an upgrade over Trevor van Riemsdyk to justify keeping him. I guess the team could bump Haydn Fleury out of the lineup and play either van Riemsdyk or Faulk on his off side. But again, I think Faulk is just too significantly overpriced role-wise, and if the Hurricanes thought Faulk fit the long-term plans in a higher role in the top 4, it would not have made the additions that it did this summer.
3) Faulk is likely part of the bigger transition
Like Skinner, Faulk’s name popped up early and often in the trade rumor mills prior to the 2018 NHL Draft weekend. Just like with Skinner, there is a good chance that the team, likely with heavy input from Rod Brind’Amour, had decided that Faulk was not part of the long-term plan and maybe was part of the transition that needed to happen leadership-wise. So while contractually there might not be nearly the urgency to reach a fast resolution as with Skinner, the desire to push fully forward into a new era could still add a different kind urgency to get this deal completed before the start of training camp or at least the regular season.
So what is to be made of Don Waddell’s comments?
I say that it is purely posturing for trade negotiations.
Best guess is that Waddell has received interest in Faulk. There are any number of teams who need another of the ultra-rare right shot defensemen, and the fact that Faulk brings goal scoring to boot should make for interest. But that gets tempered by his ‘meh’ 2017-18 season defensively and his current trajectory in that regard and then again if the trade demands are high.
With Skinner, I think the team made the hard choice to just get it done even if the price was low partly due to the contract situation with the no-movement clause that could impede deals and also the potential to lose him for nothing next summer. But in taking a small pile of futures for Skinner, the stakes are very high for a Faulk deal. Waddell and company need to get a comparable level forward capable of back filling Skinner’s roster slot in this deal. That somewhat decreases the number of teams who might be willing to ante and limits the potential suitors in the process.
Best bet is that Waddell has at least a handful of forward targets and probably even offers out, but thus far he has been only counter-offered. Rumors awhile back had the Blackhawks balking at a Faulk for Brandon Saad deal. Edmonton is another team that could use blue line help, but perhaps they are also trying to offer a lesser package of futures instead of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.
The stakes are high
I think the next deal to be done makes or breaks the summer in terms of deciding if the 2018-19 Carolina Hurricanes enter the season with a reasonable chance of pushing for a playoff spot (pending goalie play as always) or if they are just so young, inexperienced and light on scoring at forward that they are really more in rebuild mode with some hope that the rookies arrive ahead of schedule and expedite the rise by a year.
Waddell knows this and needs to figure out how to make a trade happen. Does he need to work the phones more in August? Or more likely does he need to put the phone down, somehow spread some credible rumors that a team or two are close and then wait for his phone to ring with a better offer from someone who balked earlier but gets fearful and now does not want to miss out.
Speculating at deals
Chicago and Brandon Saad
There at least seems to be interest though no deal here. Is there enough credibility in Waddell’s alleged willngness to enter the season with Faulk in tow? Better yet, can he get a credible rumor or two out there the forces a team like Chicago to reassess given a scenario where they could miss out? If the negotiation restarts, might Waddell sweeten the deal with a modest amount of futures after adding some in the Skinner deal. I like Saad as a good complementary player who is well-rounded enough to slot on a scoring line with Aho/Teravainen or on a checking line with Staal.
Edmonton and Ryan-Nugent Hopkins
Nugent-Hopkins could be a good fit adding veteran strength at the center position, but he could also slot at wing if necessary. Regardless, he offers another option who has some contract term at a reasonable price and adds a proven NHL veteran who replaces some of the scoring lost with Skinner’s departure.
Montreal and Max Pacioretty
At first glance, Pacioretty maybe does not seem like a great fit. He is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent next summer, so he could be here and gone in a year. But a few things line up…First, Montreal has pretty much punched his ticket out of town, so there could be some urgency to just get it over with. Second, if the Hurricanes want to put some emphasis on making the 2018-19 playoffs, he is a very good fit, and I think a short-term upgrade over Skinner. He brings similar scoring acumen, but as more of a prototypical receive/finish scorer, I think he fits incredibly well with Aho/Teravainen, whereas Skinner did not. Third, remember that Faulk has only two years remaining on his contract, so yes the Hurricanes could lose Pacioretty after a year, but if Faulk is not part of the long-term plan, he is gone only a year later. Finally, this is not a trade deadline deal that only sees him around for 4-6 weeks. Pacioretty would have a full season to settle in. If he meshed well with Aho and Teravainen who both figure to be long-term Canes and the team made the playoffs, does Pacioretty like his new situation and want to stay? It’s not inconceivable.
Part of me feels like the Canadiens need to sweeten the deal a bit to make up for the one year difference in contract term, but regardless, the message that this deal would send would be immense. To the fan base that has endured a tough summer seeing fan favorites depart, this would send a very clear message that the team was pushing hard for the playoffs in 2018-19. For the rumblings about Dundon’s potentially spend-thrifty ways, this would be another mark in the opposite direction. And to the team, adding a proven veteran and leader would send a strong message that the time is now.
Minnesota and Nino Niederreiter
Adding a 25-year old power forward with term on his contract to boot — What’s not to like? For whatever reason, his name has seemed to make recurring visits to the rumor mill over the past few years. Right now, Minnesota seems to be stocked on the blue line in general and maybe even more so on the right side. But if the Wild suddenly deals away Matt Dumba who has also been a regular in the trade rumors, that could be a domino and a sign that just maybe they are interested in Faulk. Until then, I am looking elsewhere first.
What say you Canes fans?
1) What are your thoughts on the potential of keeping Faulk and the team’s overstock on the blue line into the 2018-19 to wait out a better deal or simply see how that works out?
2) In a similar vein, do you think Waddell’s comments in this direction credible or merely posturing as I suggest?
3) What do you think of the trade options that I offered? Which do you like? Do you suggest any other potential targets?
Go Canes!
1) I love the Canes’ potential rookies. But this option puts way too much of the season on their play.
2) Posturing makes sense–but why not posture regarding Skinner. I guess the DeCock article two days before the trade indicated some posturing. But if it was, it resulted in a disappointing return.
3) Pacioretty might still be in play. I think at this point both Saad and RNH are long shots. My guess is one would have happened if the trade partner were willing. A team not on your list that has a significant need for a right-shot D with power play ability is Toronto. Nylander is not happening–but could Hyman be had? He is a solid two-way player and has experience with a young center. While you mention all the above trade targets fitting with Aho/Teravainen, I think the bigger need is a two-way winger for Necas. This is especially true if the organization wants to try Neas/Svechnikov. Zykov has already shown he complements Aho/TT. However, putting Ferland with Necas/Svech would likely fail.
It would be odd to keep Faulk at this point, but I’ll admit an element of excitement about seeing a blueline with both Hamilton and Faulk. If he stays, I could see TVR playing his off side with Faulk. Faulk then gets o-zone starts and 2nd PP unit time – reducing his defensive liabilities and maximizing his scoring potential.
Surely the Canes aren’t done, but perhaps they are frustrated with the offers. I think the right approach is to wait for a strong offer, but there’s still some urgency to do it this year because Faulk has more value (getting more return) with 2 contract years remaining than 1.
The best case scenario would be a top-6 center to address the team’s biggest need – other than in net (if Necas isn’t ready for full season of NHL, the Canes are really weak down the middle). RNH makes a lot of sense, but not sure the Oilers will let him go. I think Hurricanes should be willing to overpay a little to get better at center – send Faulk with 1-2 draft picks we just acquired or send a prospect from Charlotte, where there’s a growing logjam of talent.
I am sure Waddell is posturing a bit, but he was echoed by Dundon when he was on the radio last week. One thing to also consider is the salary cap. If they trade Faulk the Canes will need some salary coming back. They can’t do another futures trade.
Everyone assumes the Canes need another forward. What if they don’t? The team is stacked with LWs. The current roster includes DiGiuseppie, Ferland, Martinook, McGinn, Turbo and Zykov. That’s 6 on the left side and leaves out Foegele.
I can see the Canes going into camp and the start of the season as they are. See which of the youngsters is up to the task before pulling the trigger on a trade. I think other teams are mostly set at this point as well, but may realize they need an upgrade on the right side of the blueline after camp the first month or so.
I have no idea who the Canes may get. They need help up the middle, but prying away good centermen is difficult. His name always comes up, but I’ve never seen any indication Edmonton is willing to part with RNH. I don’t think Saad is going anywhere either. I think it’s closer to November or later until Faulk is moved.
A few thoughts on the way ahead or “next domino”-
First, I still think the return on Skinner was unfortunate. This is not a knock on Pu. He sounds like a right handed Foegele, so that is not a bad thing. Will Buffalo’s 2nd rd pick be in the top 35? Probably so. It just seems the deal was rushed and patience would have been an a better course of action.
Second, I appreciate the owner going on the radio and facing the media on Friday. He could have hid out in Texas until the storm calmed. He chose to talk to fans and explain it had to be done. I don’t like the trade but Dundon was a stand up guy in this situation. Sorry, CTC, not jumping on the “revile Dundon” train yet.
Third, Faulk is probably in a new uniform come October. I don’t see a guy making over 4.5 million playing 3rd pairing. That is not cheap but smart.
I see a deal where perhaps we get a good player and a questionable contract. Not Lucic bad but perhaps something more palatable. As long as the contract is three years or less it should be ok.
I am not worried about the Cap. In three years, Aho, TT, Necas, Svech, and Hamilton are going to be making a lot more than they are now. So I am not screaming for more spending.
I think the team needs a big scoring winger and a guy who can take draws on the PK. I don’t think the team needs a top six center. Aho and Necas are those guys. I get they are very young, but one is a top ten prospect in hockey and we know Aho is super talented. I offer that Faulk and prospects or picks can get the team in a better position starting the season.
My comments about the cap is in relation to this season. The Canes are now pretty close to the cap floor. Trading Faulk and not getting similar salary in return could put them below the floor. In other words, Dundon has to spend that money anyway. Unless they can get someone they like better than Faulk at a similar price they have no financial reason to move him….in the short term
I agree. My point was that all this cap room is flexibility when big contracts start next year and when Necas and Svech come off ELCs.
I was as certain that we wouldn’t see Faulk back as I was that we wouldn’t see Skinner back but the current line appears to be falling that way.
I will reinforce what lts said regarding Dundon’s comments – that we are not actively talking with anyone nor are we planning to do so.
But I wouldn’t call it posturing – I would probably think of it more of a reset. It looks like we were shopping Skinner, Rask, Faulk and Hanifin. And the word I heard on Twitter was that the Canes’ asking price was too high for each. I just don’t think we were looking at the return we wanted when we were actively shopping him.
I think the reset is intended to make others come to us wanting him, as opposed to what we can get for him. It makes sense to back away. Teams are going to see what they have in training camp, preseason, and early season. If they see a weakness on their team that Faulk would fill the will be knocking on our door and we will be the ones in a position of strength.
If that proves to be the case there is an interesting sidebar that suggests the O/M is still low on the learning curve when it comes to making deals that work.
Anyway, I would not be surprised to see Faulk early in the year although it is conceivable he comes in and does so well with new teammates, culture, etc. that he becomes a primary player and wins his way back into O/M’s good graces. That would be great for the Canes – possibly not so good for either TvR or Fleury.
If TD/DW actually believe that they are done making changes and plan to keep Faulk, then what does the credible case look like? I think it’s a combination of the following:
– defensively, our team is stronger with Hanifin and Dahlbeck out and Hamilton and de Haan in. On a better defensive team that needs to rely less on Faulk for defense, his defense actually improves. That might take pressure off our goaltending and give them a chance to improve, too.
– offensively, we now have two proven PP points – Hamilton and Faulk – and other younger players could fill in if pressed. We would have the potential to drive a great deal of offense from the blue line on the PP and 5v5.
– our depth on defense is now unquestioned even if expensive which makes it far easier for RBA to enforce accountability through playing time and role. This has not been true for quite some time at any position. Nothing quite changes a culture faster than competition for playing time and role.
– we still have optionality and can decide to make a trade on a time-frame that increases our leverage – ie, later, or when teams call us out of their need.
– as for roster construction, yes, Faulk is expensive if viewed as a 3rd-pairing defensemen, but might it make sense to overspend a little to receive all the benefits outlined above. I think it might.
I think that combination of factors is credible. I would be fine entering the season with Faulk if that meant that our defense was, as we’ve been thinking it would be for two seasons now, the true strength and personality of the team.
The flip side is that we are “down a man” on offense. I’m not sure that’s entirely true because I do believe in the concept of addition by subtraction. Almost anyone else who will replace Skinner in the lineup will create a more balanced line on both sides of the puck. Further, the amount of competition and hunger among the forwards vying for his playing time will lead to the same accountability that (theoretically) now exists on defense.
Having said all that, I think it is somewhat more likely he is eventually traded than he stays. I like the Pacioretty idea but I like doing something with TOR the most. Hyman, Leivo (under the radar player), Kapanen, Nylander (obviously) all would be fine with me (with parts thrown in to balance things out).
1) The league consensus (at this early juncture) is that Buffalo got the better end of the Skinner trade, so other teams will test if we are as desperate to give Faulk a fresh start. Best guess is that we start the season with Faulk, and I agree with other posters that it could be fun to watch. The party line on TVR coming in (according to RF and BP) is that he can play either side.
2). Posturing to address (1) above. We can not appear desperate or the other teams will make low offers and wait us out. The other GMs all know each other and they talk. We simply have to be more patient than they are to get a good deal. Wait wait wait. And if one of the candidate teams has an injury in pre-season or early season, the price just went up.
3) I like all of the trades that you put forward, but I don’t think we will get that. Another set of futures is more likely. Plus I like our set of forwards how they are. We are not in position of having to push a rookie into service before he is ready (I don’t think) because we have so many on the bubble. Surely some will be ready. The canes website is showing 13 forwards on the roster now including rookies Zykov, Svechnikov, Necas, and Maenalanen. However I wouldn’t pencil them in yet, there’s another half dozen behind them at various levels of readiness.
Also I don’t see them trading Rask at this point. Although he did have an off year, he still finished even in +/- (is that expressed as +0?). Combined with the fact that we are light down the center, and he is a keeper.
The cutoff in +/- moneyball looks to be -6. We’ve retained every player above that mark, and starting below Pesce, we moved 9 of 12 players at -6 or below (In order best to worst +/- are Kruger, Dahlbeck, Jooris, Lindholm, Stepniak, Nordstrom, Ryan, Hanifin, Skinner).
The only 3 players remaining below -6 (in order) are Williams, McGinn, and Faulk. We look intent on keeping Williams and McGinn.
It is quite striking to look at this list: https://www.nhl.com/hurricanes/stats/regular-season/skaters/pm
Agree about Rask. I’m not his biggest fan, but at this point they can’t afford to lose an experienced centerman that is decent on draws. This is Rask’s chance to show he’s the player they thought they locked up long term. If Aho & Necas work out at center and Rask doesn’t step up he could be out of here pretty soon. Wallmark also may have an opportunity to replace him in the long run.
Very interesting statistics about +/- and the changes in the Canes roster.
I’ve been calling the roster moves “plus/minus money ball”, although I am certain Tulsky and crew are providing far more sophisticated stats, it just happens to correlate to plus/minus.
For completeness de Haan and Ferland were 2nd in +/- on their teams, Hamilton 6th, and Maenalanen 8th, all positive. The only outlier is Martinook, who was near the bottom in +/- in Arizona.
1) It is possible we keep Faulk. TVR can play either side and Faulk can score. His weakness, defense, is not as necessary on the 3rd line. Expensive, yes, but quite a D core.
2) It could be credible, because it may have to be. The thing right now is blood is in the water, the sharks will be out. We traded skinner for nothing, which means fire sale. You can bet teams will not offer anything of value hoping they can repeat what buffalo did. I love all the possible forwards in return but I do not see it happening. Every team will be low balling now. We have no credibility. Every team is thinking fire sale in NC. We have shown that if we want to get rid of a player, we will dump for nothing. And we put Faulks name out there.
3) What do I think of the trade options, great, but pipe dreams. We will get no offers like that. We did tremendous damage to our negotiating position. Maybe later in the season or during training camp some other team will be desperate and actually offer equal value but the probabilities are not that high.
We haven’t really analyzed the actual return for Skinner yet – most of us here seem to think it was quite low – but I’ve come to think that while it wasn’t our Best Case outcome it was darn close to our Expected outcome. It certainly was not a giveaway. Here’s what we got:
– a Top 10 rated prospect. We have a deep pool of players like this in Charlotte, but I’ll gladly take another to improve the odds of developing a Top 9 forward who we will control for 6-8 more years.
– A 2nd in 2019. Barring a huge season, this is going to be a pick in the 38-45 range – and there’s not much difference between a pick here and one picked late in the 1st round, which everyone was hoping for (would have been either SJO or STL’s pick).
– A 3rd in 2020. Go back and look at what a 3rd was able to obtain at last year’s Trade Deadline – a very good rental. That might come in handy this year should we be on-the-bubble or, even better, wanted to make a deeper push.
– A 6th in 2020. This kind of makes us for some of the difference in value between the 2nd we received and the late 1st we didn’t.
All in all, I don’t know of anyone who thought we were getting more than a decent prospect and a 1st for one year of Skinner, and that’s basically what happened here. We shouldn’t be all that displeased.
I have to strongly disagree with that opinion, and the question remains, with this type of return, why trade skinner at all?
Why did the team talk him down so much that a. Forced Skinner out of town and b. lowered his asking price down to below even a first rounder.
The Buffalo player thinks they absolutely fleeced the Canes in this deal, the Hockeybuzz panel of experts thinks so too (1 out of 3 experts indicated the CAnes might safe face with another deal), the Pit blogger says Buffalo couldn’t possibley trade Skinnner away for anything less than they gave up for him, indicating he doesn’t understand why carolina did.
And look at what Col got for Duchene.
But, hey, I’d rather your opinion was right and next spring you know PU will be on everyone’s lips around the leak.
When it comes to trading Faulk, no trade is better than a bad trade.
I like all the options above but I don’t see them happening, except a trade scenario with Tor who really are top heavy on forward and need more balance on the blue line.
Management can quiet the fanbase (or at least me) by making some moves to sign our key players to longer term deals right now, showing they are thinking of the future of this team, not about cutting salaries across the board.
I think the team should’ve considered an offer sheet on Stone from Ott, he was hoping to leave and Ottawa is a total trainwreck right now (I hope for the Canadian market’s sake that we’re seeing the loest of the lows in Ottawa and the Sens will find a way out of this mess).
I think this team is unlikely to make the playoffs but there is competition and excitement and potential there, which at least is better than a team of overpaid players who have grown comfortable with their roles and do not feel the pressure to win.
I think my views on the management decisions this offseason are pretty well known to the community, but I’m taking the positives out of it, and there will be a lot of nervous youthful energy and compete when the season starts.
And the Canes could win the points per dollar competition.
Agree with CTCAINIAC about the amount of pressure on the several rookies /Checkers who might be ready to play, but shouldn’t feel “it’s them or nothing”!
We really need one top-6 forward IMO…and if one or more prospects can make it to the show…then so much the better, eh?
Posturing? Probably, but no one gets fooled by that…
Some of the trades seem good, but somewhat unlikely IMO.