My Twitter-size comments from shortly after the news broke that Jeff Skinner had been traded are at the bottom of this post. I stand by that initial reaction. What follows are more detailed thoughts on today’s big trade.
Because of the magnitude of the deal and the fact that I am not sitting down to write this until after midnight, I will break it into two parts. Today’s first part will focus on the on-ice (and to some degree in locker room) evaluation of the trade. Part two will consider bigger picture things like the effect on the fan base and community.
Preludes
Coming out of the Dougie Hamilton/Micheal Ferland trade and before the Calvin de Haan signing, I wrote an article on July 3 entitled, “Is the other shoe about to drop? And if so, what does it entail?”
In that article one of two possible series of moves detailed on July 3 was:
Justin Faulk is traded for a scoring forward => Calvin deHaan is signed as a free agent => Jeff Skinner is traded primarily for high-end futures possibly with a depth forward or defenseman included
By adding de Haan via free agency instead of trade, this version of dealing sees the Hurricanes replace Faulk, replace Skinner and still net a nice pile of futures to boot.
Two of those three deals are now a reality.
Then on July 4, I followed up with an article entitled, “The next domino is…?”
In that article, I wrote:
So I think the ideal outcome goes like this:
1) Justin Faulk is traded for a comparable forward who is proven at the NHL level and leans offense.
2) Jeff Skinner is later dealt with the primary return being a high-end package of futures.
Obviously, I missed on the order, but I still think it is quite possible that the end result ends up being more or less accurate.
Jeff Skinner for ….?
The official trade was Jeff Skinner for exactly zero games of NHL experience. The Hurricanes netted mid-tier forward prospect Cliff Pu, a second round pick in 2019, a third round pick in 2020 and a sixth round pick in 2020. So in a nutshell, the Hurricanes collected four middle-tier type futures.
The crux of the deal and likely a Brind’Amour influence
In covering the deal thoroughly, I will of course discuss what was received and its value relative to Jeff Skinner, but that is not the point of this deal. This deal is the first of what will likely be two moves (Justin Faulk being the other) to make a change to the culture, chemistry, locker room, leadership, attitude or whatever else you want to call it.
As I said on Twitter at the close of my initial thoughts, especially those who are upset to see a fan favorite depart with no NHL players in return, this deal will be pinned on Tom Dundon and Don Waddell who are favorites for fan wrath right now. But I actually think this deal more than any other that we have seen thus far has Rod Brind’Amour’s fingerprints all over it. From the very outset of trade rumors and rumblings leading up to the 2018 NHL Draft, Jeff Skinner’s name was front and center. The team never denied it, and even commented to suggest that he was in fact available.
I think it is like this. When the team collapsed in late winter and early spring last season, it was an utter train wreck. Anyone who watched it and has been unable to wipe it from his/her memory knows it. Though there were definitely elements of poor play as well, there was something bigger. The positive is that I think Tom Dundon and management recognized it and committed to addressing it. The negative is that this means having to part ways not just with random fourth line depth players and youth but actual core players and leaders.
All indications are that the team did not try to re-sign Jeff Skinner (which would be the only other viable option this summer in my opinion) but instead charted a course to trade him.
Decision-making is reported to be a group effort these days, but I fully believe that Rod Brind’Amour likely had the biggest and likely decisive vote in this decision. Dundon is on record as highly valuing Brind’Amour’s opinion. He knows a thing or two about winning (and also losing) leadership and locker rooms. And he has witnessed the past few years firsthand as an assistant coach. In my opinion, the decision to part ways with Jeff Skinner at a bare minimum had a strong blessing from Brind’Amour but more likely was actually his preference and/or suggestion.
The Hurricanes have already seen significant changeover with the departure of depth forwards Derek Ryan, Lee Stempniak and Marcus Kruger, team icon Cam Ward and high draft pedigree youth in Noah Hanifin and Elias Lindholm. But absolutely nothing had changed with the formal leadership group of the team with all of Jordan Staal, Justin Faulk and Jeff Skinner still in tow.
In looking for a restart and a change in attitude and culture, you can not just chip away at the depth players on the roster. There must be change to the leadership too. If not, departures look more like scapegoats and accountability seems to come with exemptions.
Personally, I do not see Jeff Skinner as any kind of locker room cancer or negative in that way. But he was part of a leadership team that failed and did so in a way that needed change, and I also think his departure is part of a necessary change to the team’s culture.
Replacing Jeff Skinner on the ice
The positive
The headline of this deal for many who are against it is the fact that the Hurricanes lost a player who was second on the team with 24 goals in 2017-18 even in a down year. He is a proven and consistent NHL scorer. What’s more, he is incredibly good at both creating and finishing his own offense which means that he is capable of scoring regardless of line mates.
The negatives
No doubt, the Hurricanes ability to score goals stepped down a notch with Thursday night’s trade. But I think oversimplifying his departure as now needed to add X goals fails to consider the totality of Jeff Skinner’s game and pros and cons.
Lack of development in terms of decision-making and defensive play
As I wrote awhile back, winning hockey games is not about scoring goals. Winning hockey games is about scoring more goals than you allow. And in this regard, it is not clear that Jeff Skinner, regardless of who replaces him, is a net positive. His game never matured in terms of decision-making and defensive play without the puck. When coaches and broadcasters feel the need to note and praise a player for brief spurts of responsible play six or seven years into his NHL career, it is telling as to where his game really is defensively in total. Because of that, the Hurricanes have generally lost/been outscored with Jeff Skinner on the ice. Significant is that this has been true regardless of what level he has been scoring at and generally at a worse level than the rest of the team. I fully realize that plus/minus is a flawed stat, but when it holds negative across seven seasons it is not a fluke, and when it is consistently worse than the rest of the team and partial season line mates, that normalizes reasonably well for situational negatives like playing on a bad team, weak goalie play or whatever else that should also impact team mates.
My burning question is whether it is possible to replace Jeff Skinner with a player who maybe scores 18-20 goals but is a better all-around player and actually improves the team regardless of scoring.
Lack of chemistry with line mates
Another angle dives into a regular topic of controversy which has to do with line mates. Many argue that Jeff Skinner has played largely with depth type forwards as line mates which no doubt is true. His regular centers the past couple years have been Victor Rask and Derek Ryan. What follows is the suggestion that Skinner would have been better with more help on his line. My opinion is different in that I think the one glaring weakness of Skinner’s game offensively was that he seemed to lack an ability to either make his line mates better of have them make him better. His whirling dervish one man attack with the puck on his stick did net goals but did not so much generate offense for his line mates. Further, his propensity to play with the puck on his stick did not mesh well with centers more accustomed to handling and distributing. Skinner’s foray with Jordan Staal was an unmitigated disaster that saw the two both finish at the bottom of the league for plus/minus. And years of playing on the same team with Eric Staal but rarely with him was actually coaches (all three of Maurice, Muller and Peters saw it the same way) understanding the lack of fit with his style of play and a stereotypical offensive center.
In building a 2018-19 set of lines that included rookies Martin Necas and Andrei Svechnikov, I was mostly at a loss with where to plug in Skinner. At a high level, putting a veteran who is a good offensive player with the two rookies seemed to make sense. But my fear is that that could have instantly put both Necas and Svechnikov in complementary roles that could stunt their development. Necas’ strength is that of a puck-carrying/distributing center who needs to play with the puck, not in a read and react role (i.e. what Victor Rask does when playing with Skinner) next to a wing who tends to keep the puck.
While there is definitely a loss on the power play and in terms of scoring in general, the bigger question is whether the offensive positives significantly outweigh the negatives that also departed when Skinner was traded and whether a lesser scoring, well-rounded forward can replace him.
The return
In return, the Hurricanes received what I would call a medium-level prospect and three draft picks.
As I said on Twitter initially, the return is underwhelming and disappointing. I am obviously not privy to what other deals might have been available, to what degree Skinner’s no-trade clause hindered things or to what degree all options were thoroughly explored, but my initial thoughts are that even if Skinner needs to go, I would have held out a bit longer.
But there are a couple mitigating factors. First, if I am correct that this change is as much about leadership and culture transition as anything else, it is not as simple as just keeping him into the season and waiting out a better deal. Second, especially after watching the Tavares situation unfold, if the decision had been made not to re-sign him next summer, then the market is what it is, and maybe you have to take the best available offer versus maybe getting nothing in the end.
Cliff Pu
He rates as a good second-tier type prospect definitely with NHL potential but probably more in a third line type role. Steve Kournianos’ well-timed article at The Sporting News this week had him ranked ninth in the Buffalo Sabres’ prospect pool (which rated first in the NHL).
The draft picks
Even with some changes, the Sabres still have a good chance of being a bottom half team in 2018-19 which could push the second round pick closer to the first round. But again, the Sabres have three first round picks for 2019, so one would have hoped that the Hurricanes could pry one of those loose.
More succinctly, the return just was not good. As part of a series of two moves that saw the Hurricanes net a replacement forward in a deal for Faulk, I was actually okay with trading Skinner for futures, but I would have hoped for a first-round pick and/or a higher-end prospect.
The other domino
Back on July 4 after the Hurricanes added Calvin de Haan, I considered Justin Faulk and Jeff Skinner to be an interconnected set of dominoes. Because it is hard to trade a scoring forward for a scoring forward (team needing offense does not gain much just trading offense for offense), my expectation was that the team would first trade Justin Faulk for a forward who could replace some of Skinner’s offense and then possibly trade Skinner for futures. These deals are complicated and because Faulk has two years on his contract there is maybe less urgency, but if forced to bet, I would still say that Faulk also departs before training camp. In terms of actual news breaking, August is usually a slow month, but my hunch is that Waddell will be busy trying to pull off one last trade before training camp.
Netting it out
1) As a former player and captain who gets it who has been in the locker room for the past couple years, the one thing I trust Rod Brind’Amour with is effecting the change needed in leadership, culture, etc., and more than anything, I think that is what this deal represents.
2) The 30-goal potential that was lost will be hard to replace, but I think focusing only on goals for and ignoring goals against fails to understand the full version of Jeff Skinner.
3) Regardless of who replaces Skinner, the team improved defensively today and possibly also in terms of building out lines that mesh and see 1+1+1 be greater than 3.
4) In the bigger picture, this deal is in my opinion the biggest for the fan base since the Eric Staal trade in terms of rocking the community and representing the painful version of possibly necessary change. I will address that significant aspect of this trade in part 2 hopefully on Friday.
Twitter-size comments from shortly after the Jeff Skinner trade announcement
I will post detailed thoughts later tonight but wanted to open this up for reader comments.
Initial Twitter-size comments are here:
2/? More than anything this is the 1st of what will likely be 2 "change the culture" trades. For as much as @NHLCanes had done this summer, this is the 1st that touches the 2017-18 leadership group.
— Canes and Coffee (@CanesandCoffee) August 2, 2018
3/? Another part of it is making a necessary decision now on whether Jeff Skinner is part of the long-term plan. He was set to be an unrestricted free agent next summer. (reference John Tavares)
— Canes and Coffee (@CanesandCoffee) August 2, 2018
4/? Frankly, the return is disappointing. Pu is not from the top tier that #Sabres have available, and #Canes did not net a 1st-rounder. No-trade clause and desire to get it done were probably factors but still.
— Canes and Coffee (@CanesandCoffee) August 2, 2018
5/? As I wrote awhile back (from July 4=>https://t.co/3mBzxyHWsc) , it's 2 dominoes. Faulk for some kind of Jeff Skinner replacement and Skinner for futures. Still likely though in reverse order now.
— Canes and Coffee (@CanesandCoffee) August 2, 2018
People are going to pin the Jeff Skinner trade on Dundon/Waddell because they are much better targets for wrath, but I think the deal has Brind'Amour's fingerprints on it as he tries to reset the culture and locker room.
— Canes and Coffee (@CanesandCoffee) August 2, 2018
What say you Canes fans?
1) Deal/return aside, what are your thoughts on parting ways with Jeff Skinner?
2) What are your thoughts on receiving a package of four futures in return?
3) What are your thoughts about this being more about the broader transition than on-ice production?
4) Anything else?
Go Canes!
I think this is a misprint. There was no trade tonight, only a giveaway. Very unfortunate that more could not come back for Skinner. I seek to be a positive guy, but this is horrible. A trade did not have to happen today so the team gave him away.
+ 1,000
According to DW:
“We talked to every team in the league over the past four months, and ultimately the Sabres were the team that provided us with the best value in return, including three picks and a prospect we like in Cliff Pu.”
Ladies and gentlemen, it’s official, the Canes are poo.
jm–welcome to the world I have feared since Dundon took over. I have said it before, but it bears repeating. Dundon’s business experience is either failure or taking advantage of vulnerable customers.
The way I see it most Canes fans are willing to take their business to other types of entertainment if the product is poor. In that sense it is like a restaurant, which is a business Dundon ran into bankruptcy. There are a few fans so dedicated (I consider myself one of those) that they are vulnerable to exploitation. Do a quick internet search on the settlements against Santander finance–we have been warned.
I don’t like to be unfairly harsh on people–especially when I don’t know them.
There may be a way this could be a reasonable trade. Perhaps Waddell was trying to trade Faulk first, but the trade partner wanted a specific prospect from the Canes. If that prospect was either Gauthier or Roy, Waddell might have been reluctant to part with one of those specific skill sets in the organization. From what I have been reading this evening about Pu, he is a combination of the best aspects of both Gauthier and Roy. He is a right shot, fairly big (either 6’2″ or 6’3″ depending on the source), and several Sabres’ fans have indicated he is really fast. Additionally, he was third in the OHL in face-off % won at 62%.
So I will walk back my earlier criticism (at least of the management team) if a trade involving Faulk and Gauthier/Roy returns a LW who has already produced 20+ goals in the NHL (Saad, RNH, maybe even Drouin). If that happens, then today’s disaster at least looks like part of plan.
“So I will walk back my earlier criticism (at least of the management team) if a trade involving Faulk and Gauthier/Roy returns a LW who has already produced 20+ goals in the NHL (Saad, RNH, maybe even Drouin). If that happens, then today’s disaster at least looks like part of plan.”
I’m with you CT! I’m with you!
We literally got Pu for Skinner.
Such a softball headline for the New York Post: “Canes get Pu for Skinner”
Seems like a thin haul, but considering the constraints I suppose it was all they could get. Either the Canes wanted Skinner gone really badly or Skinner wanted out in the worst way. Or both.
From a purely Hurricanes perspective, I see why people are a little put off by the return, but our history suggests we’ll get decent value out of the deal. I have been followed Pu mildly as he was a teammate of Foegele and Helvig, and he has performed very well since his draft year. He still just turned 20, so he’ll be another rookie coming into his first AHL year.
Also, given our track record of drafting later round in the past 6 years, I don’t see why we’d complain about a 2nd and a 3rd. The 6th rounder may be near irrelevant and GMRF may be gone, but scouting director Tony MacDonald and his team are still in place and I have high faith that they will make just as good use of those picks as they have in the past several years.
Seriously folks. Based solely on the Hurricanes strengths of recent years and not just on the league average value of the assets, I think we have a strong possibility of coming out on top, seeing as we just give up one single, solitary year of Jeff Skinner.
I too have watched Pu through Helvig and Foegele and watching game replays. Pu caught my eye as a up and coming nice to have player. His has great speed and good size and most of all can distribute the puck. Didn’t realize his high face off % was that high. I just watch hitelites of him on utube and saw his speed, great hands, grittiness and goal scorer mentality. Also played on PP. He may end up being a bust but I see what the front office see in this kid. Could he be paired with Goat and Roy in Charlotte.
Like Matt very well articulated…. I think too this is a change in culture move that was blessed by Brind’Amour. As much as I will miss Skins I won’t miss his whinning and one man show when he has the puck. Not a team player on the ice. And his defensive lapses were brutal. Also this does open up dollars to sign Aho and TT.
Wished we got a number 1 back but boy are we stacked with depth players and chips to make deals going forward. Would love to see top 6 coming to us for Faulk.
Honestly, reading more about this kid and discounting the poo jokes (poor guy has to be pretty used to them), sure I can see how he could potentially turn into a serviceable player (could is the operative word).
My frustration with this trade is that this team can no longer afford staying in the build for the future mode. What the team needs is a solid kick in their collective behinds, signs that the team needs to perform now, get into the playoffs now, that this is no longer small market, full of excuses team where players can do their best. I just don’t see what message trading away the teams top scorer for a collection of lower round futures and a prospect is sending.
If skinner desperately wanted out it’s a bad message.
If TD is interested in shedding salary rather than winning it sends a bad message.
If the team does not believe in the new coaching staff getting the best out of their star player it sends a bad message.
If tje management cannot extract a first round draft pick in exchange for a player one year removed from an over 35 goal season that sends a bad message.
Sure, the scouting staff has found a number of gems in the later rounds but the chances of lower round draft picks turning into NHL players fall off quickly, we can’t get sidetracked by a few brilliant picks. They won’t always happen.
If a combination of Faulk and a prospect or AHL player is traded away from a quality forward, maybe stone from Ott or any of the ones already mentioned, I can give this trade a chance. If this is it and the team is going into next season with this roster I cannot agree the team has improved from last year, except on defense and betting on too many rookies.
Going back to Matt’s article about goalcount, right now we have to subtract 25 to 30 goals from the prediction. skinner was traded without a goalscorer coming back.
While I 100% understand the frustration, if they end up not being as good as we all think they can be (yet again) this year, are you really going to bail on the team? The momentum will move forward regardless, we just need average goaltending to win. We still have Justin Faulk to trade, who should (based on recent trade values) generate far more of a return than Skinner. If you want to be worried, by all means, I’ll gladly let you. I’m totally, 100% good with this deal. Y’all have fun with the fretting.
So the departure of Jeff Skinner is definitely a minus for goal scoring, but when I try to put math to it I do not think it is as much as simple math suggests.
First, if you just plug someone into a decent lineup slot in the top 9, I think you net 10-15 goals. Less obvious but also worth considering is the fact that there is another chunk of power play time available. So a forward who was not previously on the power play now gets power play ice time and maybe 4-6 goals?
Assuming the Hurricanes do not add another veteran forward in a trade for Faulk, I view the team as being down 10-15 goals depending on if you want to count Skinner for 25 or 30 and also what math you put to his replacement and power play ice time.
It is possible that this trade is a precursor for another one. Yet Buffalo has three 1st round picks next year. It is beyond me how the canes could not have gotten one of those picks.
The really frustrating part to me is the timing. I have said before it is better to not make a trade than to make a bad one. I really liked the way the summer was trending. If Skinner needed to go, and he probably did, perhaps waiting would have gotten a better return.
Summer is not over, but today was not a good one for the home team.
fogger, your optimism should be an example to us all man. I 100% support you in that, but I just can’t share it.
I think today’s trade was pityful, no matter how I try to justify it, and, unless it’s followed by another brilliant trade, I think it’s sending the wrong message to the fans.
I’d rather have the eternal optimist’s view, and I will more than happily admit how wrong I was if, in 9 months, the team is playing the playoffs, I’ll buy the beers. I just don’t see it happening.
Let’s hope Matt is right and this is just the #2 domino in reverse order. Perhaps this sends a clear message to Montreal regarding trade value for Patches since Skinner is a fair and comparable situation. If Faulk is traded to the Habs for Patches then I would be happy. Otherwise, would we sign Nash as a UFA? We need scoring forwards to move the needle.
I’m already seeing the headlines “Canes trade away Skinner for Poo and picks”.
i’ve tried to hold back but I have to have one honest go at it, I won’t go on about this out of respect for my fellow Caniacs , but here it goes, my one time on this trade:
Seriously, just a second here, we trade away a guy who scored 61 goals over the last 2 years, with the last year being his worst in his career, for a prospect that is not even Buffalo’s first tier and a collection of lower round picks, in a year where Buffalo had 3 first round picks. NO, seriously, sorry, I can’t defend it, it’s so stupid as to be laughable, unless you are a Canes fan, in which you should reach for your calming beverage of choice and look at other interesting sports teams in the triangle, or purchase a Sabres jersey.
I can’t buy DW’s argument that the Canes tried to shop Skinner to every team in the league and this was the best offer they got, sorry, may I remind you that the caps just signed Tom Wilson (who has never scored more than 14 goals in a season) to a more expensive contract.
Supposing for a second that this is true: should the team have gone ahead with this deal?
Skinner is in a contract year, he will be playing as hard as he ever has because this is his chance at the really really big bucks.
the Canes have tons of cap flexibility this year, if ever there was a year to go all in, keep your top scorers and push forward into the playoffs. The fans are growing impatient, the team needs a jolt, an injection of energy, quite frankly, it needs to make the playoffs this upcoming season.
At best, the Canes make the playoffs, Skinner makes an impact, he finds his mojo and the two come to terms on a long-term deal.
The worst, he finds his mojo, or most of it, the team doesn’t work out, he is traded to a contending team at the deadline.
The only reason to trade Skinner now vs. at the deadline is if the team gets an offer they can’t refuse. Sorry, but a prospect and 3 lower round picks is not an offer you can’t refuse, this can’t be worse than whatever Skinner would fetch at the trade deadline, it is very likely much much worse than a team eager to go all in and win the cup would offer at the trade deadline.
OK, end of rant, I won’t go on another, and I stick by the fact that I sincerely hope I’ll have to eat my words and wash them down with a cold brew (or hot coffee).
Nice Rant! I support you!
I recall a comment I read on Facebook. The writer was a former employee of the Canes who said he had talked with an associate of TD – sometime in late April, maybe. He said that Dundon wanted to move a number of player he considered contributing to the losing culture – 5-7 players actually, with named players including Hanifin (check), Skinner (check), Faulk and Rask (the effort has apparently been there for both).
This guy’s backstory checked out – and the fact that the post disappeared quickly from Facebook gave it credibility in my mind.
If TD wanted the player, every effort was going to be made to do so. Skinner’s limited list of teams made a deal difficult.
In the end:
1) Buffalo get’s a player to add excitement in what will be a down year, and one who should net a good return at the deadline;
2) Skinner gets to play on a team that has Eichel as a quality center and should be in a position to shine individually. He will be on a playoff team by the end of the season. And he will enjoy being courted and rewarded during free agency.
3) The Canes get assets for the expiring contract of a player who is not in the long-term plans of O/M. The Canes remove a piece that O/M considers problematic from a team culture perspective (apparently). And the team gains, in those assets, trade chits to use at the deadline (presuming we are buyers – which I think is a good assumption).
Overall, I think the trade works for all three parties.
For the record, we have now moved or not re-upped 10 of our 23 roster players from last season – almost a 45% turnover rate. And I don’t think we are done yet.
“If TD wanted the player” ==> “If TD wanted to trade the player”
So, who is the real GM here? I think we know.
Breezy your post hits it on the head, you just can’t sugar-coat it…TERRIBLE TRADE! Of course the stupidity to broadcast their intentions months ago insured the inadequate return!!! -NOT REALLY TOO BRIGHT- TD kinda shot himself in the foot, eh?
Blame this mess on Jim Rutherford and Skinner, not current ownership, management or coach. Rutherford gave Skinner a full no trade clause in a contract to someone who at the time was 20 years old. That is never done, for obvious reasons that came home to roost yesterday. When Skinner played his way out of town, the Canes were stuck in a situation where the entire league knew what teams would be acceptable trade partners and therefore the Canes had absolutely no leverage. In my view, the Sabres did the Canes a favor.
I am on record on this site as being very much against trading Skinny. I believe that this team has used and abused him badly. He has been the team’s top scorer for years. Such a position made him a target for every goon in the NHL. Yet, we never gave him any protection. To his credit, he has been tough enough to keep showing up when he could. When he couldn’t it was usually because of a concussion.
By my count, he has suffered 4 concussions. Concussions, I am told are cumulative. Most knowledgeable hockey people will tell us that Skinny is heading for an early retirement. The management teams of all 31 teams are knowledgeable hockey people.
Skinny has a temper that is infamous. He spends too much time in the penalty box because of retaliation as well as a big mouth with the refs. I can’t sit in judgement of the kid. The stuff the goons are doing to him hurts. A lot. It’s not fair that he has been forced to face the goons all alone, but that’s the deal.
His contract is entering its last year. He has a NMC. Any team that gets him will have difficulty moving him. Thus, they will be likely to lose him to free agency.
Jeff Skinner was a rental player. Pure and simple. He has been rented. We walked away with a prospect and three picks.
Could we have acquired better? Probably not. And trust me when I tell you that. Probably not.
And his alleged defensive liabilities were not given any consideration. Knowledgeable hockey people will tell you that such matters pale in comparison to scoring. But the real issues Skinny brings with him that I mentioned above have suppressed his trade value significantly.
I tip my cap to the Canes management team.
We should do better with Faulk.
One more thing. For those of us who loathe TD and can only spew hateful things, Buffalo was high on Skinny’s list of acceptable cities. His home is Markham, Ontario. Jeff is going home.
I tip my cap a second time.
I dont feel any of the despair that others feel.
Jeff Skinner wasnt a teammate and didnt have a slot on this team next season. Keeping him would hurt the team more than help. Yes, yes we need to score but do we need to give up 96 more even strength goals than he will score? He is a minus 96 for his career for those counting.
Where was he going to play? With Aho? Nope, Jeff hogs the puck too much? With Necasnichov? Nope, he hogs the puck too much and isnt a reliable line mate to put with 2 rookies. So our options are Staal and Rask. A league leader in d zone start percentage next year or our 4th line center. Which one of those scenarios would going to lead to him getting 25 goals and get a high trade deadline return? None, IMO.
Pu seems to be another Geekie type pick. A late blooming 3rd rounder. Buffalo wasnt giving up big prospects or big picks for Skinner, who wasnt negotiating a contract. I would have like to seen the 2nd rounder be a conditional first instead (the condition being Skinner re-signing with them).
All I can hope for if we use some futures to get a guy that fits the team better. A reliable 2 way and scoring winger (Patches maybe) or a reliable center to show Necas the ropes.
Welp. Not what was expected or hoped for. I’m disappointed in the return. However, having slept on the trade, a couple thoughts:
Maybe, just maybe, the rest of the NHL sees what we see with Skinner. A player who can score goals, but is also a serious defensive liability who’s style of play can hinder linemates and doesn’t translate into 3×3 or shootouts. Hence, no team may have been willing to give up a lot, especially for nothing more than 1 year.
As good as Skinner is, when trying to imagine a lineup for this team, I could never put him on a line that I felt great about. Skinner-Aho-TT? That line needs someone to crash the net like Zykov or Ferland. Skinner-Necas-Svech? Nope, two rookies need someone more disciplined and responsible who can model a proper 2 way game. Skinner-Staal-Williams? Well, Skinner-Staal hasn’t worked in the past but I guess this is where you put him because Skinner can’t be on the 4th line.
There’s a LOT riding on the emergence of some new goal scorers (Svech, Zykov, Ferland, etc), but after so many years missing the playoffs, a dramatically different locker room is good.
Darth…I am responding to your writeup because I WANT WHAT YOU SAY TO BE TRUE. I don’t right now (see my comments below), but I want what you say to be the answer to why this deal was made.
Excellent write up as always, Matt.
I can definitely see some of those arguments, I don’t agree with all, but we’ll all cheer for the team when the season starts and hopefully these prove to be the right decisions.
I’m wondering what else is in the works to mold the team.
This opens up a potential slot for yet another Checker call up, such as Walmark, but I am hoping the team can sign someone with more experience, ideally trade Faulk and Rask to someone for one of the high end two-way scorer we’re hoping for, still looking at the Leafs, Oilers, or the Wild (though the Wild do not need defense, they need scoring).
Criticism and hate are two different things, threatening someone physically is hateful, disagreeing with someone’s decisions doesn’t have to be.
I admit to being TD’s biggest critic. However, I am certain that I have remained factual and not hateful.
The facts remain: the company he led was fined more than $10 million for violating a law meant to protect U.S. service members; a public employee whose job it is to make sure markets work for everyone called the business TD led “predatory.”
If the truth seems loathsome, perhaps it is the person who made that truth that is to blame.
ct…everything you say may be true, but this is a hockey site. I’m more interested in what your views are on the trade, why it was made, should it have been made, etc. than I am about whether TD has been a scoundrel in business. If Matt heads a column wanting our opinion on the ethics of Tom Dundon, IMO that will be the time to go into the unrelated to hockey things if you so desire. Sure we want our owner to be a good person. As far as I can determine our owner has been since he has been associated with this team. IMO we just made a stinking deal for us, but I’m upset about it because it doesn’t seem to help our team to win hockey games which should be our focus. In other words the deal stands on its own. Whether Rod Brindamoor is a divorcee, TD is a scounderel, or any other such data isn’t really relevant IMO. You are at your best, and one of the best, on this site for really giving good insights and ideas about hockey IMO. Personally, I look forward to that type input.
Red, I think as owner and primary decision-maker these days TD’s entire body of work can be explored and critiqued to provide information on the type of team and types of decisions he makes.
BTW, there is nothing with being divorced – I have quite enjoyed the experience these past 10 years! 😀
raleightj…my comment was aimed at MY own desire and preference to read yours, ct’s, and everybody else’s opinions on hockey goings on when I come to this site. If you feel something about TD’s history in the restaurant business is relevant to this trade, fine. I was trying to point out that IN MY CASE I enjoy reading your and others views on hockey goings on. I may be over sensitive about this, but while the team is trying to create a new atmosphere in the clubhouse, I am also trying to help create a new atmosphere about our team amongst us fans. When you, ct, lessthan, powerless, breezy, jm, dmiller, and all the others write about HOCKEY it makes for a development of such a good atmosphere no matter how much our opinions may differ.
What can I add that hasn’t been said and said well already? Am I disappointed? Hell yes! Why? From my point of view (not knowing all the facts surrounding the deal) we just let a 30 goal scorer go for virtually nothing. We could have gotten nothing at the trade deadline or at the end of his contract. We are in a need to win THIS SEASON mode. This trade does nothing to help THIS SEASON.
What could be the explanation for this fiasco? The first was tipping our hand at the end of last season that we wanted to get rid of Skinner. The second seems to be an over reaction to the Tavares situation. The third seems to be our originally granting a player at a young age and giving him a blanket no trade clause (thank you Ron Francis). The fourth seems to be putting the first (running him into the ground while still a Canes asset and while we were trying to make a deal for him) and the fourth (he resented the treatment management and the fans gave him all off season and made it hard for management to move him other than his terms.
The bottom line though is: We got nothing to help us win THIS YEAR for what was one of our star players. In fact, we strengthened an in conference rival as a gift. Well, we let Cole walk for nothing. We let Whitney walk for nothing. So what’s changed? Nothing!
For once, I hope I am wrong!
One correction – Rutherford signed Skinner, not Francis.
We got several things from the Skinner trade. We got a better locker room for one. I think that is what ultimately drove the trade. And have more assets to trade at the deadline for our closer.
I think this is solid given all the circumstances.
As I said to Darth and Chris above…I hope you guys are correct. I’m actually pulling for you to be correct because it bodes well for the Canes. I’m ready to move on and make the best of what we have. This sure opens up the roster for some youngsters who we seem to have a lot of.
Being relatively new to Raleigh (5 years) I think the fan base is overvaluing JS. I just don’t see anything more than a cherry picker that plays against weaker competition. His line mates were always behind him. I can’t think of many times when he created a break a way for teammates. No setup ability, no physical play, no commitment to defense. This team was too soft and needed change. I actually like the trade.
If JF does get traded, the Canes will need to absorb salary from somewhere. It looks like they are currently 2M above the cap floor.
Chris…as with Darth above, I hope you are right. As you can see from my comments above I think the deal stinks. My major reason is that we got nothing to help us win this year. But again, I hope your reasoning is the right reasoning. And, for the sake of my sanity and my continued good relations with my wife, I’m going to put on my rose colored glasses (as I have been for 9 years now) and go along with your approach to things. By the way, can I borrow some glasses cleaner from you? Just kidding…good writeup and one needed to bring me back to earth.
Dittos. Could not have said it better on Skinner ineptness and detriment to the team.
Your write up is excellent Matt you really cover a lot of discussion. The one area I would disagree with is the value of return. From the new end analytical perspective that some of the better run teams are employing today – namely Toronto – this is the type of return that they would covet. And before I defend the return let me just staunchly state – I am a big Jeff Skinner fan and I absolutely think the Canes needed his goal scoring to contend for a playoff spot this season however if he was not part of the long term plans – ideal situation is to trade him.
Now compared to Matt Duchene the return here was not good – but Duchene is a center, good faceoffs, good defensively and overall in that sense a superior player to Skinner. But to receive 4 assets for a pending UFA without an extension in place that is actually pretty decent value. Compare for example the return that Evander KAne netted from San Jose and it is a little similar (with them getting a medium prospect, a conditional first, and one other draft pick.
I’m also pretty high on Cliff Pu as bringing another all-around competitive, physical winger with skill into the system. The best teams have an entire roster of players that is skilled, fast but also mean and tough to play against. I think on that line of thought the next domino to fall may indeed be Faulk and I hope the return is a top 9 forward and a little more as well.
I think looking at the Canes rosters the only two sore spots outside of goaltending that stick out to me in terms of not fitting the ‘new style’ of play that they intend to achieve – that being fast and physical – are Victor Rask and Justin Faulk.
1) Deal/return aside, what are your thoughts on parting ways with Jeff Skinner?
Honestly… I’m happy he is gone. I liked watching him and he seems like a great guy, although He didn’t make us better. It didn’t matter who he played with and still had similar numbers. Not my preferred style of hockey for sure. I was on a soap box 6 years ago banging the trade Jeff for OEL.
Looking back at the Seth Jones Draft… Id make that deal with Nashville in a hearbeat now. Jeff and the 5th for the 4th = Seth Jones!
2) What are your thoughts on receiving a package of four futures in return?
I was always fine with futures the moment we traded for Hamilton and signed deHann. Makes sense actually. I am NOT happy with the level of those 4 futures though. The best asset Jeff Skinner brings us is a 2nd!!!?!!? Seriously WTMFMF!
3) What are your thoughts about this being more about the broader transition than on-ice production?
I agree.. its about addition by subtraction. We will be better. Jeff didn’t always pull the same direction as the rest of the team. He does his own thing and I’m sure that’s the major factor. Funny when I see Buff fans saying he is going to light it up playing on Jack’s wing. Nope. We know how that will go. Put him on a 3rd line with nobody and he will put up the same numbers.
You can suspect all day that it was RBA’s decision but that’s just grasping for reasoning.
4) Anything else?
Yeah.. put as much as of a positive spin on it as you want. The bottom line is this rant.
The best asset Jeff Skinner returned us is a 2nd Rd pick. That’s rough. That’s poor asset management.
Ive been one of the most positive Canes fans. Always say patience and we will see how these things work out. Not this time! This return is really terrible. So the going rate for a 30 goal scorer is a 2nd? I’m not even listening to the we got a 3rd too… a 3rd round pick has less then a 12% chance to play in the NHL. Ohh a middle prospect Pu, 9th on the Sabers prospect ranking… whats that put him at 6 max on ours? Seriously!?
Last Rant… Sorry I need to vent guys.
Poor poor POOR asset management. I would trade middle picks and middle prospects all day for legit 30 goal scoring forward. Hell lets get Panarin for a package of a 2nd, 2019’s 3rd and 2028’s 6th with Janne K and Gauthier. Done deal right? No you say? That’s not enough?
How about… lets do Faulk, and everything we got from Buff and get a top 6 30 goal scorer.. oh wait… That’s not enough you say.. well no shit! cause what we got back for our 30 Goal scorer wasn’t enough. Wait it was plenty of assets just not much quality. Quality over quantity. Maybe one of those picks and or Pu turns out. maybe they don’t.. but play the percentages! Even a 2nd has a lower percentage of working out. So you take the low percentage chance at even an NHLer let alone a 20 goal scorer comes from that trade. MIND BLOWN!
Just Trade faulk now for another 2nd, 3rd and middle prospect and we can just all hold hands and sing chants in the hopes we get one of them to hit and return to the playoffs before 2025. Nice work, nice asset management.
At least he didn’t John Tavares us.. that’s what the spin is right? At least we got something.. at least? My half full Canes glass is at an all time low.. oh shit, its empty!
Ive been suspect of trades before but I tend to have had the back of the GM and always say time will tell… I liked the Jordan trade. We did well in the Hamilton Trade, gotta give to get. Heck I was ok with the Jack Johnson trade for Gleason and Belanger.. This one is downright terrible asset management.. did I mention that? I feel like I said it…
Just preparing the fan base for Houston I guess..
You know.. you didn’t have to trade him right now.
Bottom Line. I’m good with not having Skinns on my team. I wish him much success. Terrible asset management though. Like historically bad!
DW and TD
Thomas Tatar was traded this past deadline for 2 not 1.. but yes, 2! I repeat 2 first round picks oh and lets not forget that all important 3rd they received. Marinate on that one!
Maybe its a misprint and we got 2 firsts and not that 2nd.
Clown Shoes boys, Clown shoes.
I feel much better now.. Thank you 🙂
Oh my, still chuckling about “clown shoes”.
Tatar is on a long term contract… Skinner is a pending UFA. To draw a comparison between the value in those trades doesn’t make a lot of sense.
Sebastian Aho was a 2nd round pick, Jesper Bratt 6th rd, Andreas Johnsson late round – again i’ll take 4 assets versus 1 expiring asset. Eric Staal got 2 2nds and a medium prospect and people felt that was pretty decent return.
HUH? Its just an example of asset management. Feel free to pick apart whatever you want. 2nds have a decent % of success across the league. You miss my point though. If a 2nd rd pick is the best asset we get back… Then that’s a complete fail at asset management IMO. I like Pu as a prospect. But he isn’t a sure thing.. and a 6th is far from making an impact. Again. My opinion is poor asset management. Thought that was blatantly obvious.
Tatar is a fine example of a recent trade that garnered more in return.. that’s the point of mentioning. Before the trade He had a grand total of 28 points too… With only breaking the 50 point plane once in his entire career. So you would give up more assets for a guy that going to get you 40 points vs. a guy that will hit 60 just because he has 3 years left? Hint.. there are more guys that get 40 than 60 fyi so one would by that rational assume that the value for the player getting 60 is exponentially higher than the guy getting 40…
I can simplify it for you. Take the Jordan Staal trade then… is that a better comparison? No.. ok, he is a center, I see your point.. hmm… well I guess we pulled one over on the Sabers then! Nice work my friend you convinced me.. Those silly Sabers.. They are so going to miss out on That 2nd next year when they have 3 1st rd picks… and oh in a few years that 3rd and 6th are going to sting them right where it hurts.
Well just look at Datsyuk and Zett, they are late round gems! Or more fun, lets play the game where you look through the draft and pick out that one guy and say.. we could have drafted him there. Come on, That’s a silly and ridiculous argument. The percentages are down right terrible after the 1st round. I’m not making it up. Its fact. I’m super happy we drafted Mark Alt in the 2nd what a steal!
2nd Rd picks that played 200 games in the NHL
2010- 9 Players
2011- 10 Players
3rd Rd Picks that played 200 games in the NHL
2010- 2 Joakim Nordstrom & Radko Gudas
2011- 3
4th Rd Picks that played 200 games in the NHL
2010- 1 Joonas Donskoi in case you really wanted 2know
2011- 3
5-6-7 Rd Picks
2010- 7 players in 3 rounds!
2011- 3 an average of 1 player per round. I’m really good at math if it wasn’t obvious :p
Total 2-7 round picks that played 200 games w/ half of the players coming in the 2nd bloating the rest of the rounds.
2010 – 19 players out of 180 drafted
2011 – 19 players out of 180 drafted
Pretty sweet return on Investment right!?
Feel free to peruse past drafts and cherry pick guys.. I mean Mark Stone was a 6th rd pick in 2010 So wait.. its super easy right? Heck yeah.. those silly Sabers. Schooled them!
I feel so much better now. Thank you! I so appreciate you taking the time to drop 3 names to make the case.. and it totally worked! Solid work my friend. Aho Bratt and Johnsson its that easy!
Lets Go Canes!
I never said anything about it being easy – you put A LOT of words in my mouth with your reply there. I just think that before we pull an EA sports and act like this trade was just a robbery going the other way – we have to think to ourselves what value did the Canes indeed extract here.
You say I am cherry picking names and you reply by cherry picking Mark Alt? Let me ask you a question, would you rather have a roughly 19/180 percent chance of drafting an NHL caliber player with a number of selections that you accrued trading Jeff Skinner? Or would you rather have ZERO of those assets by letting the player walk?
You also chose to COMPLETELY ignore the point I was making about contract situations DEFINING value. First of all to compare the Jordan Staal trade… I mean that was YEARS ago and evaluation does change over time. In a comment I left above I provided an ideal comparable.
Look at what the Sabres got for Evander Kane at last years trade deadline. You are talking about a LEFT WINGER, who scores GOALS around 20-30 per season, who has questions surrounding his character, but plays a very physical power forward game. Overall aside from style of play in a production sense he is a VERY similar player to Jeff Skinner. INCLUDING the most important part – CONTRACT situation being similar. Kane had a bit of the season left while Skinner has the entirety of the season left (which has positive rammifications from games played perspective but negative ones from salary owed, both things that play into the value you receive).
So Evander Kane returned a CONDITIONAL first round pick, a CONDITIONAL 3rd round pick, and a 22 year old MEDIUM prospect named Dan Oregan.
Jeff Skinner returned a non conditional 2nd, 3rd, 6th and a 20 year old medium prospect. The chances of Skinner signing in Buffalo after this season I bet are SLIM TO NONE – therefore the chances of getting a first for him were also going to be limited. Sure Kane got MORE value but god forbid Evander Kane is a BETTER player who actually throws the body and isn’t a plug in his own end like Skinner.
So Tatar who you are in love with using as the comparison guy here even out returned Evander KAne? Who is CERTAINLY a significantly better player than Tatar. Again – if you can’t understand how important contract situation is in trade value (unlike in EA sports…) then you won’t understand why Tatar received such a large return and Skinner and Kane received such a ‘small’ return.
Considering cap inflation Kane and Skinner are going to be 6.75 million dollar players in their coming contracts to get you what – 40 – 55 pts? Tomas Tatar might be a versatile 30-50 pt player but when he costs 5 million on a long term deal his value becomes a little higher.
You used the word asset management a lot and I’m just confused as to what magical dictionary definition of that word you are using that is CONTRARY to what successful front offices in the league use. For example the Toronto MAple Leafs have openly utilized asset management in the form of trading down to accrue MULTIPLE assets for 1 asset, and also have done things like trade Nick Spalings and Roman Polaks of the world for multiple low draft picks to multiply their assets. Lone behold Ron Francis who rebuilt our prospect cupboard used the SAME asset management strategy. To build prospect depth and thus increase the asset VALUE of your organization you need to make draft picks and the more draft picks you make the greater chance you have at selecting a Nikita Kucherov or Jamie Benn (yes I will continue to cherry pick). Because the point of naming these players is to make the statement that – all it takes is 1 jamie benn or Nikita Kucherov to change the direction of your franchise for MANY years. So to simply scoff at the value of late round picks and not even be interested in multiplying your chances of selecting that Kucherov/Benn you must subscribe to the Jim Rutherford model of franchise building – that is WHO NEEDS ANY draft picks amirite? Let’s just trade them all for proven value…
Think about the value you can GAIN in an organization when you acquire a 3rd round draft pick, draft a SOLID player and then can turn him into greater value much the way Buffalo just did with Cliff pu. I really do see all of the points you are making but perhaps we are just fundamentally on different sides of the spectrum when it comes to what we think is best for asset management.
The Canes got 4 assets and in my eyes 4 chances of finding a top 6 forward for one KNOWN quantity asset and the known quantities are that – middle 6 winger, not resigning here unless at OVER market value, not a complete player.
Some will say that trading Skinny for Winnie (the Pu) left Dundon looking like Eeyore. But not me. While mildly dissatisfied with the return, it was surely the best we could get. Why?
As Matt said succinctly “winning hockey games is not about scoring goals. Winning hockey games is about scoring more goals than you allow”. It was this +/- fact that made Jeff Skinner a liability, and why he was seldom on the ice with the game on the line. Even paired with our best defensive center it was a disaster. Skinny finished last season -27.
Not explored in the comments as much is Matt’s assertion that RBA was likely behind this trade. I agree. If you want RBA’s wrath, be lazy during a shift, e.g. don’t bother to play defense.
If this trade opened up a spot for Warren Foegele, he is exactly the type of player that RBA would want. Not only did he set the all-time Checkers franchise record for goals scored by a rookie, he led all Checkers forwards in +/- at +22. Contrast to Skinner’s -27 and it is a net gain of 49 goals in goal differential (within the constraints of the flawed +/- stat). Yes it is true that Foegele played in the AHL and we’ll have to see how his game translates to the NHL, but I hope to find out. He only has two settings – Off and Distort. The kid plays all out all of the time, bringing energy and excitement every time he steps on the ice.
(aside: Zykov was last place in Checkers forwards at -13).
This set of future picks helps set us up for deadline trades. If we are good enough to get to the playoffs with the team we ice in October, which I think we are, then having the flexibility to be a buyer at the deadline is a good thing. Note that two of the picks are in the 2020 draft, which gives us deadline trade flexibility in next two seasons.
As others pointed it out it also set up Buffalo for a deadline trade of Skinner, as they are likely to be a seller at the deadline.
All in all, I lean slightly negative on the return. Regardless, our team just get better at scoring more goals than we give up in TD & DW’s game of +/- moneyball.
Nice work with the Winnie and Eeyore!
Ive enjoyed the posts..
So I don’t like the trade.. but are you not entertained!? I for certain am 🙂
Yes, definitely entertained!
Flegele will be a real asset if his skill translates to the NHL. I have been calling for a Disruption Line (instead of the outdated 3rd line or checking line) for some time. I think Foegele/Staal/McGinn would be ideal. The one thing that bothers other fans is that means Williams Is slotted with Rask–and folks argue Williams can’t be on the “fourth line.” Again, the Canes are going through some significant changes. Isn’t it time to change the concept of 1st-4th line. Let all the lines play roughly 12 minutes. The remaining time will be special teams.
Zykov/Aho/TT
Skinner-replacement/Necas/Svechnikov
Foegele/Staal/McGinn
Ferland/Rask/Williams
Nice article Matt. Both the “Trade” and the article has caused a lot of thought as to what direction the Canes are headed. One thing I hope is that this trade is not a salary dump to free up funds to get an overpriced UFA to join the ranks of forwards we have. If it’s for a trade to get someone who was awarded a larger contract from arbitration in a trade involving Faulk then I would be amazed by the Front Office. After reading these posts and some others about Pu I am willing to give the young man a chance to prove himself. THe only aspect I still wonder about is why we couldn’t swing a deal for one of the three 1St Buffalo had. But as Waddell said draft picks are a currency to be used leading me to think he has something else working in the background… Only time will tell about this transaction on whether it will be a positive for the Canes.
Well boys and girls, I guess I owe some apologies. I owe an apology to Lessthanstable for what she or he saw as a threat. Please know that the man who said what you inferred as a threat is over 70 years old and is trying to recover from the surgical removal of a rather large cancer from his upper body. You were never in any danger from me.
Actually, I am not that kind of guy. I am normally able to handle name calling of the sort you were throwing at me (accusing me of being a liar as well as attacking you with what you characterize as “passive aggression”) with a certain amount of equanimity. But earlier this week I got some less than great news from my oncologist. That is not meant as an excuse for my behavior. There is no excuse for behavior on my part that makes anyone fearful that I might hurt them. I guess my over-reaction to your insults was the result of trying to deal unsuccessfully with the news from my doctor.
I offer my abject apologies to you, Lessthanstable. While your behavior was disgustingly disrespectful and offensive, my reaction was not justified.
I must say to some of the rest of you, I noticed the shunning and the not-very-subtle snide comments aimed my way. Even Matt decided to not take issue with the inciting event (the insults).
I get it, gang. I will not be taking a time out here. I am leaving this site. Nobody will be sad to see me go. I get it.
Matt, please shut me down completely on this site. I don’t want to be tempted to try to post anything. My posts are not welcome here. I get it, gang. Matt, please also stop the monthly withdrawals from my checking account.
powerless…hang with us. You have not been shunned or pushed aside. Everybody’s input is valuable. Shoot, I cited you in a positive manner above before I even got down here to read this post. None of us are looking to or want to chastise any contributors I am sure. Also, each day is a new day and a new topic. There is no carryover effect from prior days IMO. Personally, I hope you will reconsider and keep posting.
lts said nothing that would reasonably be considered an insult or a threat.
You do have a pattern of restating others’ words and opinions and you have done so in ways that come across as offensive, insulting and even textbook “passive-aggressive”. I have noticed that going back to an exchange you had months ago with ericiverson. Your words come across that way and your tone. I am not saying you are – but the words you choose to use are.
This is simply offered as a view for you to consider or reject as you wish.
And, in the end, this is the internet – nobody misses anybody here! 😀
Powerless, I am very sorry to hear about the medical issues that you are dealing with. Thank you for the explanation. I desire to live in a world where apologies are accepted. Yours is gratefully accepted by me.
Best wishes.
powerless, it’s up to Matt, but if it were up to me, I’d invite you to continue participating. I personally haven’t been offended by anything you’ve said and haven’t thought anything you’ve said crossed the line. But maybe I’ve missed a few of your choicer comments. Do what you’re going to do … go canes.
powerless, for some reason I didn’t read all of yesterday’s comments until now … I’m not sure what happened yesterday but I think in time you’ll reread the exchange and realize you over-reacted. It certainly seemed entirely out of character.
Maybe you should take a break for a while.
First, I am sorry to hear about your medical issue. I hope you enjoy a rapid and full recovery. I can understand how that can be hard.
I am sorry if my comment yesterday came across as harsh but that was intentional. Physical threats of any kind cannot and will not be tolerated. There is no room or time for someone to try to figure out if they are serious, credible, dangerous or otherwise. It’s just a simple no and never.
If you do not change your mind and request otherwise, I will delete your account per your request on Sunday. To be clear, this is per your request not your removal by me.
TD had to have wanted Skinny gone. I guess its about changing the culture but what we got back for skinner is absurd. We gave him away. We just lost a 30 goal scorer with very little in return. I will go read other comments but I am very underwhelmed with what management has done. My confidence in them just took a serious hit.
d-rob, you said it best, asset management. Its highly probable that RBA wanted him gone also. I get the no defense and not really being a team player. I thought with RBA ridding him and it being a contract year that we would see a lot more out of skinner this year. The biggest problem I have is the return we got for a 30 goal scorer. To me it is miss management. I am sure the no trade did not help either, a very big mistake by JR. Maybe it is the best they could do with a bad situation and management clearly wanted him gone. They still get an “E”, the return was pitiful.
I am sure Faulk and Rask are on the list. With this trade, my hopes for a top 6 forward are very low. We are willing to give assets away to get them off the team.
I thought the same.. Contract year and RBA as the Head… I could have envisioned a big year for Jeff at PNC.
I think he can have a good year in Buf..
Matt, great post and I agree with your general themes …
I’m a Jeff Skinner fan. He is exciting to watch and his smile lights up a room. He made being a Canes fan more enjoyable for me. Having said that, I’m fine with this trade. Let me explain …
1/ This was not a fire-sale by a bumbling management team. This was a rational decision made without emotion (that’s good and bad but mostly good). This is the same management team that made the CGY trade a month ago, signed de Haan, and, maybe more importantly, did NOT re-sign any fridge RFA/UFA’s. I’ve been quite happy – surprisingly so – with how this management team has performed so far and give them every benefit of the doubt that they explored every possible option with the same intellectual rigor before making this deal. As my father would say, “they didn’t get stupid overnight.”
2/ The market spoke and the return we received was the best the league thought Skinner was worth among the possible options. And really, why is this return a shocking surprise to any of us? We know his weaknesses all too well. The league obviously knows them, too, and doesn’t value his goal-scoring as much as they worry about his weaknesses.
3/ On any team, whether in sports or business, when you identify someone who is NOT a cultural fit, no matter how productive that individual is, even an A-player, you are always better off removing that person from the team as soon as you can. Anyone who isn’t familiar with this principle of team management has never been responsible for building or managing a high-performing team, or has never been on a team that had a poor cultural fit leave.
4/ The world hates a vacuum and now that Skinner is gone there is more space for others to grow in ways that weren’t possible before. Who fills that space has yet to be determined but it will be filled and we will likely be surprised by the details. I’m betting RBA won’t be surprised.
5/ We were not going to re-sign Skinner to his next UFA deal. That decision had been made. It’s likely he knew that and had been told directly (though maybe indirectly). Yes, he’s a professional, but who in there right mind would want to be a part of an organization that didn’t want them? He’s a human being? Getting top performance from someone in that situation is unlikely. Once that decision had been made, he had to be traded; staying was no longer a realistic option for him or for the team.
6/ We won’t know who “won” this trade for quite some time. If Skinner does not extend with BUF, they gave up a lot of assets for one year of Jeff Skinner on a rebuilding team – that doesn’t seem all that worthwhile to me. And why does anyone think BUF will be able to flip him at the trade deadline for more? He still has his NMC and can veto anything; it’s very unclear he’ll be more valuable then and quite possible he’s less valuable if he doesn’t develop any chemistry with Eichel or Middlestat or whoever he plays with and confirms that quality of his play (tough to play with) on a second team.
7/ I’ve been talking all summer about avoiding the Tavares situation with Skinner and we did that. But I think the San Antonio situation with Kawhi Leonard is equally instructive. When SA realized they had a player that didn’t want to play there, they bit the bullet and moved on even for a lower return that most expected. It’s behind them now and they can focus on the future. Jeff Skinner is behind us now and we can start to focus on the future. Don’t underestimate how valuable focus is to any team.
I know there are many who value Skinner’s goal-scoring and think we could not afford to lose his production even when that production is coupled with poor defense and little/no chemistry with line-mates; I’ve read those comments above. And I know that his NTC reduced the possible trade partners. And like everyone else, I would have preferred a higher return.
In the end, I believe we made the correct first decision to not extend Skinner, and then once that decision was made, we did the best we could for Jeff and for this team. I’m excited to have more clarity around our team for next season. We’re going to be better; it would be tough for us to be much worse.
Very good and rational points DM. I guess I am emotional more because of the return we got. I understood the weaknesses of skinner. Its hard to believe we could not have gotten a better return but I suspect skinner with his no trade clause caused that. Time to move forward.
I knew I shouldn’t post anything before you did dmiller. Your pragmatic common sense approach to things always make my blubs look kind of bad. You didn’t fail to do that again today. I second icecobra’s comment above.
I think everyone should read your comments on 6) before judging the return of this trade. The simple fact is nobody will know who ‘won this trade’ until this summer because it all depends on where SKinner signs next. If he was just a one stop shop in Buffalo then honestly they just sent us 4 assets to receive one season of Jeff Skinner. If he does re sign there then I will start looking more closely at the Evander Kane deal and I would have thought – why couldn’t it have been a conditional first round pick/second round pick that if he re-signs we get one of Buffalos lower firsts?
Until that moment i’m not ready to throw management under the bus for getting ‘bad value’.
Powerless, hang in there and consider this…
I’ve been in one of your loafers (I’m lucky to be reasonably healthy), I’m in your age group and was for awhile “personna-non-gratis” HERE! At least I probably should have been…
I spent some time just “lurking”, but found I needed to “mouth-off”, so (tail between legs) I CAME BACK!
Now I join the other opinionated, “geniuses”, who know-it-all! Lol…
WE all have our bad days, at least us old farts!
Stick around, besides what else can we do at our age?
Nice message pg.
We all have times in life where we could be better. The beautiful part is the process of getting there.
At the same point if we all always agreed on everything we would be a bunch of boring narrow minded morons… I appreciate the difference of opinions. I appreciate the commentary especially today.. It actually helped me feel way better about the trade.
We have a great group.. we don’t have to agree on every topic. Heck I disagree with half of everybody, but only when they have the opposite opinion than I do.
Feel free to rib me any time guys!
1. I think the time had come – for both Skinner and the Canes to part ways. The right words were being said but the right actions weren’t in play – possibly on either side of the fence. I wish him the best and I know he will be a star wherever he goes. And people will then say we should never have traded him – but like a marriage that has been in decline, things always get better after the divorce. 😀
2. Given that he is a rental and offered only a limited number of teams as trade options, we actually did pretty good getting Pu and picks. You have to like Pu as a legitimate mid-6 center – he’s big, plays a great 2-way game, and scores (>1.2 ppg the past 2 seasons in the OHL) with a 2:1 A:G ratio. I like those numbers. And we have depth now at center with roster and legitimate NHL prospects (Staal, Aho, Necas, Rask, Wallmark, Kuokkanen, Pu, Roy). And, if nothing else, for Skinner we received all-important trade chits, as I said above, for deadline time.
3. I definitely think culture change was a big driver – although I don’t know any of the details in the locker room. And that has to do, at its kindest, with my comments in 1. The time for change had come.
4. I like your analysis on points, Matt – we don’t really lose a lot. And I like what others have said – we open up slots for better LW prospects than we have had in previous years with Zykov, Ferland, and the improving McGinn. Each of those players complements different lines and can be moved around – they are all gritty, solid players who can make plays around the net and be strong on the boards. Meanwhile, Skinner was an odd-duck fit to the team as constituted – thanks to the posters who pointed that out.
I just saw on Twitter that Dundon will be on Gold and Ovies’ show this afternoon at 4:15. I can imagine the primary subject of the conversation.
Hey Raleigh, where do you find that? I have never listed to it.
I would also like to know where to listen to this.
Link:
https://www.wralsportsfan.com/hurricanes/audio/17745912/
Matt,
Thank you for your kind words regarding my health issues. I understand fully that threats are not to be tolerated. While I did not make a threat against anyone, I can understand how a woman could interpret what I was saying to Red as a threat. I will regret that for the rest of my life.
Please note that I made my request to you to delete my account and for you to cease your monthly withdrawals from my checking account after painful and due consideration.
I have always had the utmost respect and liking for you; until now. You let her attack me with name calling and treatment that was completely lacking respect for quite some time before she thought she was being threatened. And up to now, you have not addressed that issue. I guess you didn’t really mean it when you assured us that you wanted us to treat each other with respect.
I have participated here and paid money into your site because I liked and respected you. I was enjoying myself among others and learning from them as well. Now, i feel betrayed because you permitted the attacks. I do not like being called names. Why should I pay for that?
I will answer my own question. I shouldn’t. I won’t. No need to wait until Sunday. Do it now, please.
Respectfully,
Bill
Here’s a link to the Hockeybuzz panel discussing the trade:
https://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/HockeyBuzz-Hotstove/Thoughts-on-the-Jeff-Skinner-trade/187/94204
As they said, it looks like a highway robbery on the surface but it depends whether the management has one more ace up their collective sleeves.
I found the reference to the replacement value stat interesting, I need to go look at that.
Good or bad, Skinner is no longer a Cane. I think he will tear it up in Buf (just like Eric staal in Minnesota).
I like all the different considerations and views and those have definitely made me feel slightly differently about the trade, but I still maintain it was a dudd. We have no one’s word but the management’s that they explored every option, if I made a questionable decision I’d say the I explored every option, whether I did or not (and to be fair to myself I do explore every option for important work decisions).
But the team should go all in this year, durn all about building for the future, this team needs to win now to get the fanbase back, the team has to show a drive and desire to win now, not to keep maturing players and collecting prospects, we’ve seen a whole decade of that.
So I am hoping management will add one or two more pieces up front to help with scoring.
There is hope.
Everybody thought the caps took a major step backwards last year, through combination of luck, chemistry and drive they won the cup, so in hockey anything’s possible.
Though the Canes do not have the superstar player that can put the team on his back like Ovechkin. We have a promising Russian, and we have to hope he’ll end up more Ovi than Yakipov.
So. I may have a different point of view than everyone else, but… In sleeping on it and thinking about it, and trying not to be subjective and letting my disdain for Jeff Skinner affect this, here is what I think about the whole situation.
I’ll start off by saying the return is light. I would have felt a little better about Pu and a first. Or maybe if they added in another solid prospect like Rasmus Asplund.
But.
Skinner does not have a ton of value right now. He’s SUCH a one-dimensional player, and we all know it, even if that one dimension is a big question mark on this team. He doesn’t make his linemates better. He’s a liability everywhere but near the offensive goal. He coasts in the neutral zone without the puck. He’s scared of getting hit and forfeits possession on the attack and in the corners. He just. doesn’t. play. the game. the right. way. We’ve been hearing about the culture change, this was the most necessary move if they were serious about that by far, in my opinion. Look at the Boston Celtics, the best example I can think of off the top of my head. Marcus Smart. HORRIBLE offensive player. Shooting percentage is one of the worst in the NBA and its not close. And yet, he is absolutely imperative to that team’s success. Diving for loose balls. Locking down the other teams best scorer on a crucial possession. Or delivering a perfect pass to a teammate for a big bucket. When’s the last time you saw Jeff Skinner dive to block a dangerous shot? Or make a huge defensive play to save a goal? Or chip a puck out at the blue line after a steady attack against? Or just generally make a big play for a teammate? Every play you can think of made by Jeff Skinner is a goal by Jeff Skinner. Or a fancy attempted move. Yeah, I’m good on all that. Don’t need it. I want guys in the room that will show the young players the way (Williams, Staal, probably even Ferland, etc. Are the guys I want leading Aho, Svech, and so on). Players willing to sacrifice themselves for the good of the TEAM. And, he made it pretty clear he didn’t want to be here to boot – which wasn’t really a secret and further drove down the value. But more importantly, that toxicity in our locker room come training camp, a guy that doesn’t really wanna be there… just horrible for a young team.
So the return… Broken down one way, Cliff Pu is a skilled playmaker with size and speed. He can also play center or wing, and you love to have that versatility. According to some people more familiar with Buffalo/their prospects, many think he profiles as a solid middle-six player that can play on the PP and provide solid secondary scoring in a year or two. Additionally, a 2019 second rounder… Checks Buffalo’s roster… that’s a solid top 50, possibly even top 40 pick. Aho, Faulk, countless others are waving (I know those are ‘hits’ but you get the point). That’s obviously valuable. 2020 third is probably top 75. Also valuable. Pesce, Erik Cole, Foegele drafted in that range… Anywhere in the top 100 picks you get a solid shot of selecting an NHL player. After that its a crapshoot, but it still happens. Odds are, though, players selected in the top 100 are at least 50-50% to make the NHL. So… Lets say we get five years (two in juniors, three on ELCs) of two mid-roster NHLers for one year of Jeff Skinner (Another thought… Using early picks on goalies is always risky, but early second is usually where the top goalie prospects are selected… What if we use one of those to select a franchise goalie that holds down our net for 12-15 years?). That’s a hell of a lot better than the return the Islanders just got for the face of their franchise. Who is about 100X better than 53.
Lastly, and this kinda ties back into the earlier point about locker room chemistry and all that… Even with all the young talent, and being that a lot of young players struggle on the defensive side of the puck, many of the players we’re bringing in are solid two-way players. Foegele is a shutdown penalty killer and extremely hard worker. Svechnikov and Necas both have reputations as hard working, responsible players. Even as teens (or early 20s in Foeg’s case), I expect them to be better overall players than Skinner with more of a positive impact on the team. Truly, I do. Skinner and Hanifin (and Faulk… still to come?) have been victimized time and again on goals against over the last few years. We could make a pretty sickening low-light reel with just those guys on it. They may have added goals, but those will be replaced by the players on this years roster, and it won’t cost the defensive garbage that came with 5 and 53 (and 27). So, we go into the year with a lineup like this one…
Zykov-Aho-Teravainen
Ferland-Necas-Svechnikov
McGinnn-Staal-Williams
DiG-Rask-Foegele
And a top 5, maybe top 3 defense in hockey. I like that lineup better than any one the Canes rolled out in 2017-18, by a good margin.
Skinner was not a positive influence on the Carolina Hurricanes except for in his rookie year and 2016-17. And moving forward, the franchise is better off without him. I truly believe that. We didn’t win in nine years with him. Its time to move in a different direction.
BW–optimism is always a good thing. However, in an effort to understand all the moves since the draft, I have been reading sites related to other teams. While fans who watch the Canes on a regular basis believe Skinner was one-dimensional, Hanifin didn’t make sound decisions in his own end, and Faulk is a liability, many Flames fans are saying similar things about Hamilton and Ferland. They specifically commented that Hamilton made glaring defensive lapses and took unnecessary penalties. Calgary fans really think they improved their compete level from the trade. It is always possible that both teams will consider the trade a clear win. But it is also possible that Hamilton will be Faulk form 16-17 in that he scores goals but is defensively so-so.
As far as Ferland, I am pretty sure most of us will be somewhat disappointed. He played with a player who recorded 60 assists. That tied with Crosby for 7th best in the league. Ferland is a product of Gaudreau. On a line with two rookies, he will be fortunate to score a dozen goals. Yet I keep reading comments by other Canes’ fans penciling him into one of the first two lines. Another fact that really strikes me is that neither Hamilton nor Ferland spent time on the penalty kill–that is where you play defensively responsible players. The Canes lost three key pieces of the PK and have added one (Martinook, who you don’t even have in the lineup). Add to that all of the subtractions were players who didn’t commit many penalties while Hamilton, Svechnikov, and Zykov are penalty-prone. The Canes lineup you indicate has one big problem–the penalty kill. Look at the numbers for really successful teams (Washington, Tampa, Pittsburgh, Boston, even New Jersey last season). Those teams kill you when you take a penalty. You may like how hard-working the revamped lineup looks, you may like their compete level, you may like their grit. However, the penalty kill has been weakened. Also, you are counting on a player whose shooting % was 14.6 last season to continue that on a line with two rookies. When I look at performance more than traits of players, I don’t find reason for all the optimism. The Canes may well play harder without Skinner, Hanifin, and Lindholm. But they will also commit more penalties and struggle after they commit them. Finally, if Faulk isn’t traded for a 20+ goal, strong two-way LW, then the lineup has a significant hole.
All that being said, I am thrilled to see Aho at center, Svechnikov win the Calder, and Zykov prove that TAZ can produce for 82 games. It is going to be a fun season. But the Skinner trade was still bad.
Absolutely. I agree with all those points. Martinook can be inserted in that LW4 spot but I do want to see PDG get a shot and see if his late hot streak was a fluke or him turning a corner. Foegele, McGinn, and Staal can kill penalties, surely one more guy from that group can too? Maybe Aho is ready for that? Williams is a veteran… maybe? Surely one other player in that group could do it? But who knows. And yeah, I know Ferland isn’t a great defensive player and was a product of his linemates. But he could likely replicate those numbers with two dynamic players like Necas and Svechnikov and he brings the physical edge (by the way that’s moreso why I included him in the “I like the way he plays better than some others we got rid of” category) that would fit well nice to the youngsters and keep big hitters from taking liberties with our young stars. I just think this upcoming year’s team will be more complete and tougher to play against but also very talented. The only thing I truly worry about is the obvious one, the goaltending. But even there I expect one of the two to have a legitimate rebound behind a phenomenal defense core. Also, I know Hamilton is average at best defensively. But according to the metrics he’s far better than Hanifin. How much of that can be attributed to playing with Giordano I have no idea, but regardless… the offense he’ll bring will make it worth it. I’m very excited about this team. More than I have been about the canes in some time.
BW. If being tough to play against is a focus and the Canes are still looking to make some trades, I would be thrilled if they could get Blake Coleman from NJ.
I will admit to not having seen a lot of him–just like I haven’t seen a lot of Ferland other than highlights of his fights.
But based on NJ fan sites and statistics, Coleman is an attacking player who was fifth in the entire league in hits. He is excellent on the PK and has a takeaway/giveaway ratio over 3. He also has shown increasing offensive skills as his time on the ice increased from around 12 minutes in October to more than 16 from February on. One other thing is that he takes face-offs, not extremely well but he can likely improve. And the Canes are going to need help in the circle early in the season.
If Waddell is being honest and the Canes are likely to retain Faulk, maybe TVR for Coleman would work.
Waddell is not being honest about the Canes retaining Faulk.
There is less urgency and more potential to hold out a bit longer to get a fair return, but make no mistake the team’s desire to move him increased not decreased with the Skinner trade.
What Waddell is doing is posturing and doing all he can to create the impression that only a fair offer gets a deal done. The team lost in terms of value received in the Skinner deal, and it knows it. But in doing my 3 steps from early July out of order (De Haan fills out the top 4, Faulk gets traded for forward help, and Skinner goes for futures), the team is short veteran top 6/9 forward with Skinner gone and no replacement yet.
Waddell will spend August trying to figure out if the better way to move things along is to work the phones or more likely actually pretend like you really don’t need to/care to with the aim of moving Faulk for a comparable forward.
Matt. I hope you are correct. However, I am a little concerned with you change in tone. You are critically honest about the players in assessing how they have performed and tempering some of our too optimistic assumptions that they will suddenly make dramatic improvements.
Waddell already has a track record as a GM. It indicates that he is below-average. I understand that acquiring de Haan fit perfectly with what you would have done. But I don’t believe that Waddell is dramatically better–basically as good as you are at laying out a plan.
Also, I have seen folks talk about how +/- players are being moved. That is true. It is also true that players who have or are in line for decent salaries are being moved. At this point, the Canes are at the bottom of the league in salary. I am pretty sure that is intentional.
Sadly, I noticed the same. I am not sure if the new owner has any desire to keep the Canes in Carolina, nor to honestly make them a quality team.
Obviously I’d like to be proven silly, but little I’ve seen so far, other than the Calvin signing, gives me much confidence in the Canes management team.
The new GM’s last team was forced to move. Yes, people can come up with a million excuses for that (though none for Skinner apparently), so that’s ok then.
3 players with salary expectations are unceremoniously rushed out of town, Skinner after nothing short of a media smeering campaign by the management and staff (Cole’s interview was an imbarrassment, even if it were true there was no need to broadcast those comments).
The Canes get a bargain backup goalie.
There is downgrade in scoring, unless the prospect pool produces miracles, which could happen but that’s courtesy of RF’s work and random draft lottery fortune.
The team is plummiting to the salary floor. NHL success is not measured in points per dollar and logic says that the best players typically earn more money.
And there’s the whole Kaiten circus.
I want to be silly and I’ll admit to it if the rest of the offseason proves it, or, to a lesser degree, if the team on the ice proves it (if the improvements come from rookies the team succeeds despite management, not because of it).
But my enthusiasm for this team, after 10 years of unwavering commitment is at an all time low.
That being said, talking hockey with you guys keeps it alive, so Matt and y’all, you are awesome.
I agree with Matt. I said basically verbatim the same thing about Faulk over on a Canes Country board.
CTC – the Thrashers were a joke all the way around, staff-wise. Here, he’s surrounded by some really good hockey minds. Krepelka, Dudley, Tulsky, all very well regarded. There was a really good article, I believe on the Athletic, about the Canes draft war room, a behind-the-scenes look at the way they work together… It was really cool, and gave me a good deal of confidence that together, they’re leading this team the right direction. So I’m not gonna put all of Atlanta’s struggles on Waddell. He’s made some good moves here this offseason. You don’t like the Skinner move, fine, but wait until training camp or the start of the season before you start judging the job he’s done. As I said before, moving Skinner, who is not part of the future of the team, opens up spots for players that Dundon and Waddell decided ARE part of that future.
and Breezy – did you actually listen to the Cole interview or just read the hot-take headlines trying to blow stuff out of proportion and act like he completely trashed Skinner as a player and person? I’m curious as to what, exactly, he said that you thought was out of line. He WAS given too much leeway to do things that other players wouldn’t have gotten away with. The contract with a NMC and such WAS a bit uncalled for for a RFA that really had no leverage. And Cole even said that its not all on Skinner, but the franchise that allowed him to do those things. So. I agreed with every word.
This gaggle of fans is “really diverse”! That is most likely a very good thing. We tend to like when people agree with us, but it appears that the group here is strong…because “collectively” we can see many sides of the situation, and ultimately come to a balanced viewpoint…!
Now, I want to tell you that you’re all wrong, if you don’t agree with me…of course, but ALAS that is unlikely!
Don’t expect me to be so reasonable very often, especially when I’m imbibing a good bourbon /or single malt! THOUGH it’s usually just a decent “craft-brew”…!
One last item regarding Skinner. I never really liked him as a player. I viewed him as selfish, immature and although an elite goal-scorer, not much of a team player. Last summer he initiated a personal campaign to get kids to read more. It was clear to me that this wasn’t just another athlete with a marketing campaign to make him look good to his fans. He was serious about the benefits and used his personal experience reading books while doing all the traveling these guys do to promote the message. His efforts struck a tone with me as I, like Jeff, value reading and how much it means to have an empathetic society that can be learned through good books. I was really impressed with his passion and thoughtfulness, and started to look at him more as a person than a player. I think sometimes it is hard to separate the two. His particular style of play may be selfish (in my view) but that doesn’t mean he is a selfish person or not a good teammate off the ice. That’s probably not news to most who visit/remark in here but I have to remind myself sometimes that these guys are real people, with real lives and emotions. I wish him the best in Buffalo both on and off the ice and hope he keeps spreading the message of a good read is a good mind.
Ten. Excellent insight.
As a reader, you understand that all of us are creatures of our early experiences. It is pretty well known that Skinner was a figure skater as well as hockey player growing up. I always thought his style of play reflected that background more than being selfish. Figure skating is a solitary (or at best a two-person) challenge. What I saw was Skinner trying to outskate the opposition, which often meant not focusing/relying on his teammates.
After all this fantastic discussion let’s just take a moment to reflect on how Jeff Skinner regardless of the player is an absolute class act off the ice.
I’ve watched many of his interviews since he has left and he has had absolutely NOTHING but positive things to say about his time in Carolina. He truly did not burn the bridge in the slightest – even Eric Staal after he left took his shots and he kind of deserved to make them. So Kudos to Skinner I hope he receives a warm welcome from the 500 fans in attendance.