My past few posts have looked forward to building the 2016-17 Carolina Hurricanes.
First, I listed players with the most to prove in the last quarter of the season.
Then I assessed the 2016-17 roster and openings in goal and on the blue line.
Finally, I assessed the 2016-17 roster and openings at forward.
This post is sort of another variation of the first post that highlighted players with the most to prove down the stretch.
Here is what I would be looking for from each player if I was Bill Peters and/or Ron Francis:
1) Phil Di Giuseppe
He is in a good spot right now. He has proven capable of playing at NHL speed, being willing to bang bodies when given the chance and play a sounder defensive game than might have been anticipated from a player labeled as an offensive forward. I think the minimum bar for Di Giuseppe to clear is to continue to be sound defensively and offer some ruggedness in his game. If he does that, he would seem to be a shoe in for at least a fourth line slot next season on a team that has numerous openings. If he can be sound enough defensively to play his way into that role, he easily has upside offensively relative to a run of the mill fourth-liner. The higher bar for Di Giuseppe to clear would be to play his way into a higher slot. He will see more ice time and power play time down the stretch. To clear the higher bar, he needs to find a higher gear offensively and look like a dynamic offensive player capable of 50+ points in the right role.
2) Chris Terry
Chris Terry is in a tough spot right now. Along the way, he did make progress defensively, but because of his lack of mobility he just is not great defensively. And so far in the 2015-16 season he has not been great offensively either with only 4 goals and 0 assists. Right now, he is is tracking toward not being qualified on a 1-way deal but instead either being let go completely or offered only a 2-way deal that could see him back in the AHL as deep depth next season. To get better, Terry will need to be lights out offensively down the stretch and a noticeable difference-maker.
3) Brock McGinn
I am not as optimistic about Brock McGinn’s NHL future as more optimistic Hurricanes fans. I appreciate his work ethic and lunch pail style of play, but I just am not sure he is capable of transferring it to the NHL level. In his earlier NHL stints, McGinn showed a willingness to forecheck hard and bang bodies but just did not have the ability to get in on the puck soon enough. The result was too often passes behind him leading to quick rushes the other way. I think he has 2 obstacles to overcome to make it to the NHL and stay. First, he needs to be a couple steps faster to the puck. This can happen from raw speed or a better ability to read plays and get a quicker jump. Second, I think he also has an adjustment to make in terms of separating opposing players from the puck. At a lower level, he could do so with big hits, but at the NHL level I am not sure he has enough size to regularly bang NHL defensemen off the puck. He will instead need to use some combination of that along with Nathan Gerbe-like tenacity.
4) Riley Nash
I think Riley Nash is in a decent position. His strengths are his flexibiilty, defensive acumen and skating ability. I actually like Nash as a fourth line center, more than McClement even. But McClement is anchored in the fourth line center slot for 1 more season which leaves Nash looking for a slot elsewhere. He has numerous advantages over other players competing for depth spots. He can play center or right wing in a pinch which offers flexibility. He is not a liability defensively. And he can also take face-offs and kill penalties. I like Nash as a fourth-liner or #13 forward for 2016-17. To convince Peters and Francis of the same, I think he just needs to look like he is a top player among the depth forwards.
5) Nathan Gerbe
Gerbe has had a hard time of it in 2016-17 between injuries, less ice time when healthy and a scoring drop off. Right now, I think he is on the outside looking in for next season. To play his way back into the mix, I think he needs to do 1 or both of 2 things down the stretch. First, I think he needs to prove capable of being an offensive spark in a depth role. Second, I think it would help him to play with and look good next to Jay McClement such that he can position himself to be part of a good fourth line. I just do not see him earning a spot in the top 9 next season even if things go well.
6) Brad Malone
I actually think that Brad Malone has had a very good year in his role as a depth forward who brings some old school grit. When inserted into the lineup after being out of it multiple times, he entered with exactly the fire a coach would want for a player of his type. He had a run in which he knocked opposing players out of the lineup with hard but clean hits. He has dropped the gloves when necessary. He also chipped in at least some offense. If having an enforcer type who could slot somewhere between #10 and #13 was a requirement for the 2016-17 season, I would bring Malone back in that role. The issue is that with the changing NHL, I am not sure the Canes will carry a Brad Malone type at all. If I am right, to win a new contract and a slot for 2016-17, Malone would need to show that he is capable of much more offensively which might be a stretch for his skill set.
7) Derek Ryan
To stick at the NHL level and draw into consideration for a slot in the 2016-17 NHL roster, I think Ryan must do 2 things. First, he must be dynamic offensively and produce. As an older prospect who is undersized, I do not think being okay will be good enough. He needs to look like he is part of the solution to the Canes scoring limitations. Second, he needs to be a capable NHL center defensively such that he can be trusted.
As an aside, I voted to try him at right wing in training camp. He looked pretty good in preseason and produced some offensively. But with Staal, Staal, Rask and McClement, there really was no room for him to win a spot at center. With Eric Staal gone, there could be a center slot (if Lindholm does not seize it) available, but I think there could be more room at right wing.
8) Ryan Murphy
As noted in my blog on the defense, Murphy probably slots at #7 on the Canes blue line right now, and that is only if he is not passed by new recruits (Fleury and McKeown) like he was this season. His skill set actually projects nicely as the offensive half of a good third pairing with him doing the heavy lifting moving the puck, creating offense and contributing on the power play. The issue is that Murphy has yet to prove capable of transferring his offense to the NHL level. Version 1.0 of Murphy a couple years back saw him race down the ice right past his forwards and often into a dead end. Version 2.0 comes with improved play without the puck and more controlled puck movement. But we are still waiting for a version that can use his speed to open up passing lanes and generate offense in bunches for the forwards on the ice with him. To raise eyebrows down the stretch and stake a claim on the longer-term blue line depth chart, I think Murphy needs to maintain his improved defensive play and also find a higher gear offensively.
9) Michal Jordan
I think he is in a similar position as Chris Terry. He was given an NHL slot when Francis signed him to a 1-way deal, but he has not really played well enough to get it back for next season. He struggled early when dropped into a top 4 role on his off side with Wisniewski’s injury. Faulk’s injury saw him get another chance. He looked good initially, but more recently, he and Hanifin had struggled in the bottom pairing. The Canes might consider re-signing him on a 2-way contract to be a #8 or #9 playing in Charlotte but with NHL experience, but I think it takes a huge end of the season for him to earn more.
10) Noah Hanifin
His long-term with the team will not come down to what happens down the stretch this season. He will be a part of it hopefully in an increasing role. But what the remainder of 2015-16 will tell Peters and Francis about Hanifin is how likely he is to be ready for a bigger role in 2016-17. He is playing in a top 4 role for the first time (other than very short stints), has a pretty solid partner in Pesce and will see a heavy helping of top half of the roster NHL forwards. This will be a test for Hanifin. I think the key to bringing his game up to this level is his ability to improve in a couple areas without the puck on his stick. First, he needs to be much better at sorting things out in the neutral zone and in his own end. Second, I think he is still learning in terms of playing offense without the puck especially supporting his defense partner in moving the puck up the ice.
The volume of things to watch and track as a Canes fan is significant right now. Even though the team is playing real games and even still trying to pull off a huge surprise by going on winning run, March has a bit of a preseason vibe to it. Literally, half of the roster is playing to seize a front runner position to win a 2016-17 roster spot.
Go Canes!
