Carolina Hurricanes Coach Bill Peters and General Manager Ron Francis have 17 games remaining in the 2015-16 season. The team will play to win hockey games and build on a strong December through February, but it will also look to collect information necessary to build the team for 2016-17.
In part 1 of this 2-part series, I will address the defense and goalies which is by far the easier of the 2 parts to sort out:
Goalie
When GM Ron Francis extended Eddie Lack for 2 more seasons before he even played in a Hurricanes uniform, he committed half of his goalie tandem to Lack. Lack has played better as the season wore on, but I think Francis would like to get a better feel for what Lack might be capable of in a longer run. It will be interesting to see if he can win/keep the starter position over a stretch of games in the last 5 weeks. With the organization likely to be very young and inexperienced in Charlotte next season, there will not likely be any ready help there. This makes it critical that Lack find a comfort zone and also that Francis spend his second slot wisely.
Things to learn: Whether after settling in, Lack can grow to be a #1.
Spots to be filled: The other half of a 1A/1B tandem. Re-signing Cam Ward is 1 possibility as are a number of other free agent and trade options. Based on Lack’s inability to seize and keep the starter’s job, I think Francis is looking for an equal partner not a cheap backup who is not expected to play much.
Defense
The blue line for 2016-17 looks reasonably full and reasonably solid. With James Wisniewski back in the mix and all of the current starters under contract or only a restricted free agent, the Canes are probably 6 deep with starters and really only trying to sort out depth roles. We can debate whether some of the young players slot higher or lower or what the best pairings are, but at a basic level something like Hainsey/Faulk, Slavin/Wisniewski, Hanifin/Pesce looks pretty solid and is a nice set of right-left pairs. That leaves Peters and Francis evaluating who works best together and also young players for both their ability to provide depth for 2016-17 and step into a bigger role beyond that. This second project puts Michal Jordan, Ryan Murphy and possibly Trevor Carrick in the mix with Haydn Fleury potentially joining the fray next summer.
Things to learn: Which pairings work best together of the big 6 (at least those in the lineup) and also an evaluation of whether Hanifin could be ready to step up into the top 4 like Pesce and Slavin. The most significant thing might be Ron Francis projecting which of Ryan Murphy and Trevor Carrick have a role longer-term and which might therefore
Spots to be filled: Unless Murphy or Carrick surges up the depth chart in March, the Canes are really just looking for #7 and #8 depth (possibly from Charlotte if they add a veteran to sit in the press box at #7).
Within the next day or 2, I will post part 2 which will address the more complicated forward position.
Go Canes!
A couple scenarios I will throw out in hopes of some back and forth discussion:
1) Fleury comes into camp and is on fire and forces management to keep him on the roster. He gets the Hanifin scenario (starts on the 3rd pair). We also see enough evidence in the last 17 games that Slavin and Hanifin can handle top 4 minutes and situations. How does the left side D shake out? Where do you put Hainsey?
2) We have 2 experienced D in Hainsey and Wiz, both with one year left on their contracts. Most likely, regardless of how the team does next year (missing playoffs, getting in and out, or getting in for a long run) one of them or both will not be extended. Does that change any thoughts on keeping Murphy around? We have a depth of L shot D and 4 R shot D with Murphy. Do we package him with picks to try and improve at forward? What if Wiz isn’t fully healed, or struggles?
There is a criminal lack of appreciation for Roland McKeown among the Canes’ fanbase. He’s having a better season than Fleury, has been praised by his coaches for his play and his leadership, and his Kingston team (where he’s the captain) is poised to make a deep run in the Memorial Cup….and I’m a Fleury fan.
With that said, the best possible scenario would be for neither Fleury nor McKeown to be in Raleigh next year (unless injuries crop up). That scenario assumes that the development and showing of Hanifin, Slavin, and Pesce wasn’t a fluke and also assumes that there’s no sophomore slump. And with Ryan up on the big club Trevor Carrick and his 39 points is the leading scorer in Charlotte. He definitely deserves a look.
To me the interesting question about the D is this: Will RF trade some of his young D to get some immediate help at forward? Canes essentially need an entire top line? The current imbalance between D and F prospects with the Canes is huge. Edmonton has the opposite problem, so seems to me they are potential trading partners over the summer.
With regard to goalie, it will be interesting to see how much the Canes spend on Goalie 1B. The Canes have ~$15M to spend just to get to the salary cap floor, so it would not surprise me if they pick up an ugly contract (maybe like Jimmy Howard?) if they can get some other young forward assets as part of a package deal.
While I would love to see an upgrade in our forward corps, trading away our young defenders, in some cases before we even see what they look like in the NHL, feels premature. All one had to do was see what happened when Faulk and Pesce went down with injuries. Depth, folks, is the mother’s milk of champion teams. We are just now beginning to nibble at it, but it’s not there, fully baked, yet. Would love to see another blueliner or two taken with those picks at the draft. Don’t get me wrong, I want us to use at least 5 picks in the 1st 4 rounds on forwards (we have 8 picks in the top 105 of this year’s draft). The first two rounds are deep at forward and the top three rounds have a number of solid defensive prospects.
Just a thought. Since we apparently have a glut of defensemen why couldn’t we try Murphy at a forward position. He has the puck moving and skating skills and certainly is fast enough. Of coursed, a trade for a forward would be the better approach if it can be made.
It is a misconception to say we have a “glut” of blueliners. That will clearly prove itself in Charlotte next year, much as it has at the tail end of this year (see Charlotte’s recent losing streak as proof). But Ryan Murphy looks to have been passed by other young defenders and Francis may have waited too long to extract reasonable value out of him. Yet, in my opinion, that is what needs to be done with young Ryan. He needs a fresh start somewhere else, a place where the blueline isn’t so crowded.