For something different, more positive and for a good cause, please stop by today’s post on our “Caniac Ice Cream Challenge.”
If you were away from hockey over the weekend and through Monday afternoon, the NHL trade deadline came and went on Monday afternoon. There were some big deals for rental players, but the marquee players with contract term past the 2017-18 season stayed put. The Carolina Hurricanes only a minor deal sending depth forward Josh Jooris to the Pittsburgh Penguins in exchange for AHL center Greg McKegg. I covered that trade in a short article earlier this afternoon that you can find HERE.
The bigger story for the Hurricanes is what they did not do and what in means in the bigger picture of a 2017-18 season that seems to be quickly deteriorating.
As I said on Twitter just as I was starting to write this article…
Sitting down to write post trade deadline @NHLCanes article. I feel like I could literally write 12 different articles coming at it from completely different angles. My newest slogan for my Caniacness….#NeedsMoreIceCream
— Canes and Coffee (@CanesandCoffee) February 27, 2018
The Caniac Ice Cream Challenge!
And just like that, the official Canes and Coffee sponsored “Caniac Ice Cream Challenge” is born.
Pulling together our entire team and leaning heavily on the “coffee” part of our name, the plan is to work into the wee hours of the night and come up with………………..something. So please check back tomorrow for details on what will hopefully be something fun for March. Goodness knows the Caniac Nation could use something fun and positive for March.
So check back on Tuesday to see what we figure out and how you can play.
Back to your regularly scheduled program…The 2018 NHL Trade Deadline for the Carolina Hurricanes
Important to note that final grades are still premature
The vast majority of all assessments written about the Carolina Hurricanes right now either formally in media outlets or informally via social media posts are written from the angle of the team missing the 2017-18 playoffs. With Columbus adding players today and winning and the Hurricanes sputtering mightily that has most definitely become the most likely outcome. But it is not the only outcome. While the odds are certainly against the Hurricanes right now, the odds of a rebound and playoff berth are not 0 percent nor are they that close to 0 percent. If the team beats the odds and does make the playoffs any interim assessments of all things Hurricanes for the 2017-18 are suddenly viewed in a completely different light.
Going back to last summer
At the most basic level, I do not fault Ron Francis for the lack of activity at the trade deadline (details on that below). From my final trade deadline preview part #2 that laid out priorities, I was not a fan of adding rental options of players who are scheduled to become free agents at the end of the current season. Without rehashing that article, I wrote off broad categories or trade types based on likely high costs combined with the potential to get nothing in return especially given that I think the Hurricanes issues (‘iffy’ goaltending, consistency issues, etc.) are not so easily addressed by one player anyway.
Initial disclaimer noted, if the Hurricanes miss the playoffs again, I do consider this season a failure even if there are (which there would be) positives to be also claimed. And if that happens, I think that in terms of personnel moves that are the responsibility of Ron Francis that the driver for the lack of success does not reside with the trade deadline but rather with his work last summer. The Canes entered the last offseason with two primary needs – improved goaltending and the addition of a scoring catalyst ideally in the form of a top 6 playmaking center. I talked about that in part 3 of the trade deadline series which was entitled “Identifying the need” and also linked to my original article from last May. At a basic level, Francis tried but missed (at least so far) in terms of addressing the goaltending issue when he added Scott Darling. In terms of adding an offensive catalyst, he mostly passed possibly because prices were too high. Instead, Francis’ big addition was Justin Williams who is a great player who does make the team better but who in my opinion does not meet my requirement of being a pure offensive catalyst. Then I think Francis compounded the problem by following that up by building a fourth line that was unlikely to help with scoring depth. The combined result is that the Hurricanes have not significantly (if at all) improved in net which has them still 21st in the league in terms of goals allowed and even worse at 26th in the league in terms of goals scored. Not surprisingly, that equates to being about similar in the standings which is below the playoff cut line which includes only 16 teams.
Shorter version is that if the 2017-18 continues in the current direction and ends in a ninth straight playoff miss, I pin it on the miss and the pass from last summer and not at all the 2018 trade deadline.
And Francis did not really miss on any players who made sense in my opinion
Rather than just looking at player after player and saying, “Ohhh! He’s good. He could help.”, my starting point was two things. First was focusing on players who had contract term past the 2017-18 season and in the process immediately excluding all rentals. Then I followed up by focusing only on players who I thought could be true difference-makers, ‘offensive catalysts’. I do not think the Hurricanes can make significant headway from here by simply adding to the volume of depth scorers.
With a process that started from the top down by setting pretty stringent requirements, the list of players I was interested in entering the trade deadline quickly screened down to a total of six players. Three players met the playmaking center requirement fairly well. Two wings offered the potential to provide high end finishing in the form of a player who could support the generation of a playmaking center from within (Aho or Necas). And one offensive generational talent was worth creating his own category for to be considered. Of that, only one of the six players was traded and for a pricey cost of a first round draft pick, a third round draft pick, a prospect and another UFA who was later flipped for another third round draft pick.
And the two biggest names on my list, Erik Karlsson and Max Pacioretty, seem destined to return to the trade list when the offseason starts. So in that regard, it is not so much that the Hurricanes missed out or were outbid. Rather, the bidding war and negotiation just shifted forward into the offseason.
I think Francis’ potential to win either these players would have been higher at the trade deadline with fewer bidders and the chance to make an offer that caused the seller to jump early. But that said, I have no way of knowing whether Francis tried in earnest to do exactly that but was rebuffed or if he was just inactive on this front.
Deals I would steal
In the past, I have written an article entitled “Deals I would steal” after trade deadlines and the start of free agency. The idea is to note any deals that I would steal for the Hurricanes if given the opportunity. And on this count, there really is not much there except for one oddball category. I liked Derick Brassard but would have pulled up short of giving up a first-round pick plus to get him. Patrick Maroon is useful and not crazy expensive for a third-round pick, but I already voted against any and all rental type trades.
Interesting goalie option might have been worth stealing
The only thing that jumps out to me as interesting is Philadelphia’s acquisition of goalie Petr Mrazek for third and fourth round draft picks. IF the Hurricanes plan to mostly ride out the 2017-18 season with Cam Ward in net. And IF the Hurricanes plan to part ways with at least one of Cam Ward (contract expires) or Scott Darling (would need to be bought out or somehow traded with salary retention). Then adding an impending free agent goalie with re-signing potential could have been interesting. Worst case is he does not work out, and you just part ways at the end of the season minus a fairly modest trade cost. But if instead, he works out, the wins are potentially double and both fairly significant. First is that 10-12 games of a hot goalie could be just what the Hurricanes need right now to reverse course and push up into the playoffs for the 2017-18 season. Second is that with the Hurricanes having two failed transitions under their belt on their last two tries in Lack and Darling, bringing in a goalie for an audition before committing for three or more years seems like an incredibly prudent and worthwhile thing to do right now. One downside to the Mrazek deal is that he is only a restricted free agent but with a qualifying offer of $4 million per year, he is more or less an unrestricted free agent. By having him on the roster, the Hurricanes could have had exclusive negotiating rights to him until July 1 pretty similar to what they had with Darling last summer when they acquired him from the Blackhawks.
The press conference
The press conference that followed the passing of the trade deadline was in itself a somewhat newsworthy event despite the lack of actual activity to discuss.
Shortly after it concluded, I tweeted:
Two big picture things jump out right now. 1-I fear the team is out of touch with the state of @NHLCanes fan base rigth now; 2-I fear that Jordan Staal being out of lineup could incorrectly influence the upcoming offseason with "If we didn't lose Staal in crunch time…"
— Canes and Coffee (@CanesandCoffee) February 26, 2018
In hopes of diligently parsing through a number of different things that are significant from the press conference, I am going to save that for a separate article but will note a couple high level things.
First, the vast majority of conversation from the team lately gives me the impression that the front office is growing increasingly more out of touch with the core fan base. I am not suggesting that Francis’ job is to take direction from fans, but I think where there is a growing gap is at least recognizing where the fan base is and addressing their issues head on in a way that understands the situation.
Second, thank goodness for Mark Armstrong from ABC-11/WTVD. In my opinion, too many of these press conferences go by with what I call standard fare for questions from the formal local media. They only touch the obvious surface and mostly settle for addressing the easy stuff that stops short of any tension and uncomfortableness. But today at about the midway point of the press conference, Mark Armstrong took the mic and made a strong but respectful push for additional levels explanation, harder to get at details and with it another level of depth into where Ron Francis is right now. That is invaluable right now as we try to figure out which end is up in terms of Francis’ effort to rebuild the Hurricanes into a winner.
Keeping up with the Joneses and potentially trying to jolt the system
Finally, while being on record as not wanting to spend futures for short-term rentals focused only on the 2017-18 season, assessing what other teams in the same group of teams fighting for the last playoff spot in the Eastern Conference is worth noting. The Columbus Blue Jackets moved most aggressively adding scoring help in the form of Thomas Vanek, blue line depth in the form of Ian Cole and more forward depth in the form of Mark Letestu. The New York Islanders were not as aggressive, but they did add blue line depth in Brandon Davidson and forward depth in Chris Wagner. The Florida Panthers who are quietly creeping up under the radar because they have so many games in hand were quiet.
One of my concerns with inaction is the potential message it sends to the team at a critical time. At a point in time when team is struggling and has to have some amount of self doubt about playoff possibilities, Francis only move was to subtract a potential NHL player at the same time that Blue Jackets who are ahead of them are adding three. While I would not do a deal simply to make a statement, deals this time of year can make strong statements. As far as Hurricanes history goes, the move by then General Manager Jim Rutherford to move early and aggressively to add veteran Doug Weight for the pricey cost of a first-round pick made an unmistakable statement that the 2005-06 Carolina Hurricanes were gunning for a Stanley Cup.
Jofa helmets and a promise of bobble heads
And somewhere along the way, my list of nonsensical requests/demands from the Carolina Hurricanes organization grew from one to two.
We didn't even get bobble heads. My list of bizarre, unreasonable and for most unexplainable @NHLCanes requests now includes two items — Darling & Ward practicing in Jofa bucket helmets & the GM making an official announcement on bobble heads.
— Canes and Coffee (@CanesandCoffee) February 26, 2018
Go Canes!
GMRF is definitely out of touch with the general masses. He said the prices were too high this summer for scoring help. Last year they were too high as well. They were also too high at deadline. And they will likely be too high come draft day and July 1st. While he is correct the prices are high, the newsflash is they will never be low.
He likes this team, and we are where everyone thought we would be in the standings, yet we continue to yo-yo around the playoff line (mostly below) with no sense of boost to help the team get over the hump. We are better in his eyes this year because we are in a true playoff hunt, yet the playoff line came down due to other team’s poor play.
He points out his coach wears his heart on his sleeve and says some things he shouldn’t at times, yet oddly the fans see many of BP’s complaints as reasonable (we need people to score, at least one more top 6 guy). That was achievable. Other teams around us did such.
In essence, this is all on GMRF. He did nothing to address the elephant in the room. While we are a bubble team, and that’s fine as we are polishing a rebuild, he did nothing to help boost morale with even a modest pickup. With the unfortunate absence of Staal for however long we probably needed it even more. It almost appears as though he is hardened to the fact we are sticking to this core no matter what…the core that proved again this year being above the playoff line was too much.
The next stretch of 10 we may very well win only 2 games. It’s a tough one starting tonight in Boston. I hope I am wrong in all this.
Matt, you are probably right. The absence of Staal may give upper management even more reason to stand pat this summer by thinking they would have had the pieces from within, and if they had cut down on the number of blow outs we’d be in. That’s the unfortunate disconnect between the general masses and the front office.
live_free…, I like your writeup with one exception. BP is not without blame for this season. Earlier in the year he stated he was happy with the roster and players we have. He stated we could win with the players we had in the room. Now when the fat is in the fire, he is bellyaching about needing more firepower. Only within two weeks of the trade deadline did BP change his tune (after a losing streak). That’s a little late IMO. If he had put the burr in RF’s saddle earlier in the year, which he did not, maybe RF would have or could have responded. No free ride here from me for BP. He has not got the best out of what he has ands further he NOW accepts no responsibility for the results. If you remember early in the season he was constantly saying it was his responsibility. As far as I’m concerned, this coach has shirked any responsibility and dumped on RF. You and I can “dump” on RF because we did not mislead him earlier in the season by claiming we had the horses to get into the playoffs. BP doesn’t have that luxury as he misread the capabilities of his roster. Either he misjudged the talent level, or he judged the talent level correctly (it was capable of making the playoffs) and he just didn’t get the best out of the talent he was provided. Let’s hold RF’s feet to the fire, but let’s not kid ourselves and let’s hold BP’s feet to the fire.
Well! Here we are. I know that I felt angry and frustrated last night. Do I believe what Ronnie said at the interview? Yes. As far as it goes. But there is more. Much more going on behind the scenes that nobody is willing to tell us.
You see, I am not a believer in analytics. I believe in the humanity of each player. So while others look at players by concentrating on statistics, I look at players by concentrating on how they play. So I wasn’t hoping that Ronnie would bring in a savior, scoring catalyst like Matt Duchene was for Ottawa. I don’t believe that one player makes a team. I don’t believe in short cuts to winning.
Jim Rutherford put together a Stanley Cup champion. However, he had a record of drafting a bunch of not-ready-for-prime-time (NHL) players.
Ronnie has been putting together this group for a while now. We have a line up of potentially elite scorers. Some of us don’t see this yet. Given time, they will. But we have all the scoring talent we need. What we lack is a couple of men who will give our team a new identity. Who will give our team the opportunity to show the world what we can do. I know that my fancy stats fanalyst friends hate this, but what we need is grit. Ronnie could have obtained grit for cheap yesterday. (Tommy Wingels and Patrick Maroon were sold for practically nothing). We will meet Wingels tonight.
This is one of the many things I don’t understand. Ronnie and Bill both pay lip service to the concept of grit. Yet, nothing gets done in this department. Why? Fans show up for that kind of thing.
What is Bill doing with this team? Why won’t he tell us? What’s going on in the locker room? Why are the players so inconsistent? Why does it seem that Ronnie and Bill are at odds? Why don’t they make Justin Williams the team captain? Why do they insist on keeping Haydn Fleury in the line up? Why are so many of my friends down on Jeff Skinner? Don’t they watch him every game as enemy players keep trying to part his hair with their sticks? Don’t they realize that he is a rare treasure; an honest to goodness pure scorer? The enemy players do.
Can Bill be as clueless about his players as he seems to be? What is Tom all about?
This team, right now is capable of great things. We can make the playoffs and go deep. All we have to do is be willing (each and every player) to go to any lengths to get there.
Your writeup really asks the right questions IMO. IMO BP is an egotist who thinks he is going to win by shuffling players around. We have a very young team and IMO the constant shuffling of roles and lines has sucked all the confidence out of these players. Each one doesn’t know if he is part of the problem or part of the solution IMO. Each day after a game BP gives us the Nordy, Rasher, Lindy, etc. rundown like they are his buddies. His remedy for anything seems to be rotating Dahlback and Fleury and Jooris and DiG in and out of the lineup as if these players are the only ones held responsible for poor results. Has he asked RF to call up any young players from Charlotte? Remember at the beginning of the season he was happy because RF had provided him with NHL level players and he didn’t want to have any inexperienced players. If we the fans are as mixed up about what is going on, imagine what the players are going through.
I am okay with not selling the farm for rentals. I get that we arent in same position as 2006. At the same time there was enough low priced individuals to give us some depth / make us better. The two examples were the two you mentioned, Mzarek and Maroon. 3rd round picks and a “meh” college guy? We wouldnt be given up much but 3rd rounders for the next 2 years and Max Zimmer. Sign me up. Yet GMRF is capable or willing to sway a deal? Its time for him to go, HHOF and retire jersey or not.
My 2 biggest take aways from that lethargic PC:
He hopes to do better in the offseason. HOPES?!?!? Hope isnt a method
He is upset that BP has asked twice in the media for more help? He is mad that BP actually shows emotions but yet does nothing to help the man?
I won’t argue with you on your appraisal of RF’s performance even though I disagree. Who knows, you may be right and I’m wrong (won’t be the first time for me). On BP, you say he asks for help. When? Two weeks before the trade deadline after his team has tanked on him? That’s called shirking responsibility in my opinion. Let’s look at the move RF made bringing up Wallmark when we were short at center. BP used him in the first game on the 4th line as a wing and gave him 4.78 minutes of ice time. In that same game he played Ryan (hasn’t scored a POINT in a lifetime) 16.53 minutes. In the next game Wallmark played 7.39 minutes and Ryan played 18.05 minutes as the 4th line center. How in the world does any of that make sense from a coaching perspective? How did that give Wallmark any chance to show what he can do? To me, it’s coaching nonsense.
Did you see the deadline presser by GMRF? He mentioned HCBP asking for more talent twice and looked / sounded displeased with HCBP for
doing so.
BP STATED ALL SEASON THAT HE WAS PLEASED WITH HIS TEAM AND AS LATE AS TWO TO THREE WEEKS BEFORE THE TRADE DEADLINR WAS PROCLAIMING HE HAD A TEAM TO GET INTO THE PLAYOFFS. ONLY WHEN THE TEAM TANKED AND WENT ON A LOSING STREAK DID HE START DISTANCING HIMSELF FROM THE PENDING FAILURE. ALL OF A SUDDEN ALL THE “I’M ULTIMATELY RESPONSIBLE” ANSWERS HE GAVE WHEN THE TEAM PLAYED POORLY EARLIER TURNED INTO a DUMP ON RF AS BEING HIS PROBLEM.
RF STATED IN HIS PRESS CONFERENCE THAT BP WEARS HIS EMOTIONS ON HISSLEEVE AT TIMES. HE STATED THAT SOMETIMES IT WAS NOT IN BP’S BEST INTEREST TO DO SO. I TOOK THIS TO BE REFERRING TO BP’S OUTBURSTS AGAINST INDIVIDUAL PLAYERS (LACK, RASK, ETC.) THAT BP SEEMED TO AFTER THE FACT REGRET MAKING. RF NEVER REFERRED TO BP ASKING TWICE FOR MORE TALENT IN THE CONTEXT THAT YOU STATE AS FAR AS WHAT I HEARD.
I’VE COMPLAINED ABOUT EVERYONE (FRANCIS, PETERS, FORSLAND, TRACY, BETTMAN, GOD, TO NAME A FEW) AND EVERYTHING (SCHEDULING, WEATHER, BACK-TO-BACK GAMES, THE BYE WEEK, CONDITION OF THE ICE, THE ANTHEM SINGER, ATTENDANCE, ETC.) POSSIBLE DURING THIS SEASON AS MY FRUSTRATION HAS GROWN. THE ONLY PERSON I HAVE NOT HELD ACCOUNTABLE IS “ME.” I GUESS I’M JUST LIKE BP ONLY I AM NOT SMART ENOUGHT TO MAKE A MILLION OR SO BEING RESPONSIBLE FOR NOTHING.
First, I don’t fault GMRF for a lack of activity: buying a Rental made no sense, there probably wasn’t a market for any of our UFA’s, and Tatar doesn’t fit the description of “high-end difference-maker.” The McDonagh/Miller trade is interesting but very expensive – a very good roster player in Namestnikov, two prospects, and 2 1sts – and I’m not sure McD would have agreed to come here anyway (has a M-NTC).
Second, we have to remember, if we don’t make the playoffs, our 1st round pick could turn into a Nolan Patrick or a Nico Hischier like it did for PHI/NJD last year. A low chance, but if it did, that would make trading our pick look idiotic. It’s not worth the risk for such a short-term gain.
Third, and this is what I’m thinking most about this morning, I did hear GMRF say something very interesting at the press conference (@2:10) when answering one of the first questions about what to say to the fans who feel we’re on a “hamster wheel.” Towards the end of the answer, he said, “… and with the addition of Tom here moving forward, we maybe have the ability now to do some things that we haven’t been able to do in the past.”
That’s about as clear a statement as I’ve heard from anyone that we’ve been “on a budget,” and that previous ownership was only willing to invest so much into the team. If that really was true then (PK) and it’s not true now (TD), the upcoming offseason might look very different. I don’t have to remind anyone (but I will) that our payroll is 30th in the league, and $7-mil below the 29th team: that’s the equivalent of RNH, Matt Duchene, ROR, Pacioretty, [pick your favorite high-end player] – and that’s just to get us to 29th!!! (The median payroll is ~$13-mil more than ours.)
I personally believe that we’re going to have a very active offseason. I don’t necessarily expect us to sign a high-priced UFA – that seems to be what gets everyone in trouble – but I do see us making hockey trades where we take on much more salary. No guarantees, but we have a deep prospect pool, a full docket of draft picks, and now, a capacity for a higher payroll, so at least I think we’ll try. I don’t think it’s possible to overstate what a difference that might make.
Like everyone, I’m disappointed that our team has faltered over the past two weeks, that every other team in our division (ex-NYR) added, that Darling has underperformed, that our plan for the 4th line didn’t work, that we haven’t called up any prospects to inject offense/new life into the team, etc., but I’m still a fan, and I’m going to continue to hope that we find our groove over the remaining 20 games – something we did find at some point in every other season coached by BP – with or without #11.
Like Scarlett famously said, “tomorrow is another day.”
Testify!
I advocated for Maroon, if Ron was going to make a move, and he decided not to. He had good reasons, and he knows how to run a hockey team better than any of us, without even trying. It is right to question and be skeptical, but at the end of every heartbreaking game, I’m able to sleep peacefully trusting in Ron’s process.
I asked my roommate last night why he would rather be sad about this season, when he could be excited about the overall big picture, because I legitimately don’t understand the despair. I mean, he cursed me out for that, but the question still remains.
Also as for goaltending, Matthew, i disagree highly with your prudence on Mrazek. Mrazek is very hot right now, but he’s hot right now, for the first time in a season and a half. They had to give up two conditional picks for him and one of those conditions is practically already met. We traded Jooris to save a few thousand bucks, we’re definitely still in rebuild mode, and that’s okay. One more year of this, and we’ll be virtually drowning in prospects, with assets at every level. Life is goooooood.
I understand about TD is here and GMRF says we have a chance to do more. Here is the funny thing, what UFA comes here? JVR, maybe because of his brother? We aren’t one piece away and have more questions than answers. We are sticking our heads in the sand if we believe the off season is a fix for this. We would have to throw more money than everyone else to get a guy to sign. That only hurts the franchise long term. We all know GMRF isnt going to risk the long term health of the franchise, he has said and proven that for 4 years. Color me skeptical with the notion that we can fix this in the off season.
Free agents are nice. The development of Necas, Kuokkanen, Foegele, etc. etc. etc. is going to be better. JVR would be a nice piece too. Of course there are questions, but it’s still all about the player development. We trade when its a steal and we sign when it’s convenient, but it’s really all about the player development. There are no sure things in PD, but it’s really the most effective way for us to fill all our needs.
Your usual level headed view. Good writeup IMO. One correction. “Tomorrow will be a better day.”
Correction noted 🙂
Generally, I was ok with RF standing pat at the deadline given the prices and contract situations of those being talked about. However, Evander Kane was practically given away by Buffalo, with the Sharks not really having to commit anything long term to find out if he’s a good fit moving forward post Joe Thornton. One side of me looks at that deal and wonders why if RF thinks his team is good enough to stay in the hunt for the last playoff spot, why wouldn’t you consider adding a top six forward for the run with no long term commitment having to be placed into the deal? What is there to lose…a conditional second round pick? I’m not saying I would recommend the deal and Kane isn’t the ideal centerman you’d prefer, but one certainly can make the argument that it may have been a good deal to make both in the short term and long term. What if he helps the Canes slide into the playoffs and walks away after the season? Who cares, the dynamics of making the playoffs and re-energizing both the team and the fan base would be worth the short term investment in my view. If they miss the playoffs at least they did something, and maybe Kane’s style of rugged play helps to change some of the culture in the locker room. Having said all that, RF may have talked to Buffalo and they wanted more from him than they eventually received from the Sharks and it wasn’t a good deal to be had. Then ok. Maybe we’ll get some hints over the next few days.
IMO Kane wouldn’t be much help to us. This guy is overrated IMO. You may be right, I just disagree on that point. I would agree with your reasoning if I thought Kane would play at the level you think he would. I just do not think he’s as good as you think he is. Of course, I have been wrong on things like this (I’ve asked Matt to erase all of my comments made prior to the trade deadline to destroy the evidence). Good writeup tenin…
I agree with you in that I’m not a huge Evander Kane fan either. However, if added to the squad, he becomes the third highest scorer behind Aho and Tevo and second in goals. It’s not like we’re talking about the Canes being loaded with offensive talent to start with. All he has to be is significantly better than just one of the wingers currently playing on the top three lines and I think he is – with all his faults/deficiencies. Se la vi.
I’m not disappointed we didn’t make any big moves at the deadline. Prices were high on rentals and as Matt pointed out none of the big targets with term left on their contracts were moved. The only reasonable move I would’ve considered was for Maroon but even he has already mentioned wanting to return to the Oilers for next season.
As bummed as I am the way this season is playing out, we really aren’t better than last year there just happens to be a number of other teams doing just as bad, I am still excited about our future. We’ve got a lot of good young players and prospects with tons of potential. I want the Canes to be a perennial playoff contender and that does take time.
I do have a few concerns about the future though:
1. Yesterday’s press conference really made it seem like Francis is not in touch with the fan base. I’m not sure what he expects to see out of this team in the last 20 games that we haven’t seen in the first 60; especially with Staal most likely missing a significant amount of games. I also worry that missing Staal could be used as the excuse if we do miss the playoffs again. Hopefully this is not the case and Dundon is going to loosen the purse strings and allow RF to go find us those few pivotal pieces we’ve been missing.
2. There seems to be some growing tension between RF and BP. I’m not of the opinion that either/both need to go right now, another season of the same next year would be a different story, but I worry about the overall effect of them not being on the same page anymore.
3. I am still confused at the unwillingness to bring up any of the guys from Charlotte for a serious look. They look great on paper but we have no idea how that will translate at the NHL level. In my opinion now is the perfect time to give them a shot and see if they can make an impact in the playoff chase; and don’t just stick them on the 4th line, lets give them some real minutes and see what we’ve got.
4. Goaltending… The Canes’ seemingly never-ending problem. I firmly believe that with league average goaltending this year we would be competing for WC1 or top 3 in the metro. I’m not sure what the answer is here. How likely is it we can trade Darling if we retain 50%? Is it worth buying him out after one year? Do we re-sign Ward? Is Ned or Booth capable of playing back-up or better next year? What other potential starters will be available? Raanta? I agree that Mrazek would’ve been a gamble but we can’t get much worse than what Darling is giving us and the price wasn’t exorbitant. Another option I mentioned yesterday was Lehner, who apparently isn’t happy in Buffalo; he is at least a proven starter. This is the one area that still gives me anxiety as we don’t seem to have any answers yet.
Ned’s been on fire down in Charlotte of late. I think he’ll contend for the backup job in camp next year. Booth I would see getting a full year in Charlotte before he contends, but he has to beat out Helvig, who will likely be on his ELC next year. I would imagine that resigning Ward would be the economically efficient option. Raanta would be great, but we’d have to outpay Arizona, and he might not be bidding war material. Carter Hutton might be a good option to play along with Darling and Ned next season too. I call Ward comes back though.
So you think we have 3 goalies next year?
Hutton is interesting and has good numbers but again he’s never been a starter either. He’s only played more than 30 games once in 2013-14.
I’m just going to start praying to the hockey gods that Ned turns out to be our Jaccob Slavin of goaltenders.
Carter Hutton? An older goalie who never has really been a #1 and has limited NHL experience but has fared well in short run (importantly) in shielded/protected situation? What could go wrong?
Either you have a weak memory or a strong stomach. 🙂
I mean, everything could go wrong, it’s a freaking goalie Matt. Unless we want to drop mad money on Raanta, we really don’t have any other option other than to bring Cam back was my main point there. I’m not exactly thrilled to roll with Cam and Darling for another year and hope Ned gets better, but looking a few months out, that’s probably going to be our best option. Hutton is legit the 2nd best free agent available. I’d say trade, but we don’t exactly do well with that either. As far as this team goes, apparently I have a stronger stomach than many here, but this is the reality we have.
RR…regarding BP: A good coach has to say his players are good enough to get in (otherwise he’d not be motivating). That said, BP has urged GMRF to obtain scoring help well before this year. At the end of last season (before the draft) BP stated he wishes the team only used 3 picks out of the many they had. He wasn’t kidding, he wanted scoring help. We did land Williams, but we used most picks and did not land the offensive spark BP and the general masses were clamoring for. So I do think BP was vocal in what his teams needs were before this season. But again, if you don’t obtain those players you have to work with what you got. BP words about the team being good enough can appear as motivating his players, but deep down he knew well before this recent losing streak. We have had difficulties potting goals all year.
RF gets a failing grade for me for this trade line.
If this core is good enough to make the playoffs, why not try to improve it.
Enter both Kane and Maroon, players that can add the physical edge that everyone says the Canes are lacking, Kane is a damn good goalscorer on top of that, and if he comes here and likes it he can re-sign here as a free agent, it is not like we automatically loose a player that becomes a UFA July 1st, we have a run at qualifying that player before any other team does).
Enter O do ya (I like spelling it that way), an experienced defenseman that still has some gas in the tank and could help our groaing blue line.
Enter the Rangers/Lightning deal, I think we could hav done that deal with one of our defenseman, prospect and a couple of picks, JT Miller is pretty good, physical and one of the guys we mentioned as a good fit last year. MCD is injury prone but a good defenseman.
Also enter the two goalie deals that were done recently, I think the Canes should have been in on either of those, and then could have tried to send Ward to Pit for a shot at the playoffs and maybe for a decent pick or prospect.
The only thing RF did was to trade away what I consider to be the best of the 4th liners for an even worse player, thus helping out his old Penguins team more than the team he is supposed to manage.
And, yeah, he saved $130000 .. that kind of mindset makes no sense to be honest.
The only thing left to do is hoping that we can get some Checkers rotating through Raleigh to show off their stuff. We can rotate players and leave the Checkers with enough quality to get to the AHL playoffs.
But so far this duo has not showed faith in our prospects and has not given them a chance so far.
RF was a legendary hockey player, a great captain and, I am sure, is a great human being, but I do not trust him as a manager andI don’t think he is doing a good job this year. I also feel he is out of touch with the fan base and that us fans deserve a better product on the ice.
All I can do is hope and wait, but I admit being a Canes fan is getting a bit tiring and the enthusiasm is fading, thank goodness we have a community like C&C to have fun discussions and keep some sparks alive.
Matt, nice write up as always. While I’m as frustrated as everyone else, after thinking about the Canes situation, I am not as upset with GMRF about the trade deadline. I agree with Matt that the problems are offseason ones and not something that could be fixed at the deadline.
If you’re GMRF, your big picture coming into this season was framed by 2 major conditions. You had an owner who was desperately trying to sell the team and trying to goose the bottom line to make it more attractive to a buyer. This limited your ability to make personnel moves you would like to make because of financial constraints. So, you stick to smaller moves and make the one big splash you were allowed to make by signing Darling. If money were no object, you probably would go in a much different direction, but that’s not an option.
At the same time, you have committed to building through the draft and develop process, which takes much longer than any of us would like, given the LONG playoff drought we lived through. You had some reasonable success last year and took some steps forward. You had to assume that this season would see continued steps forward, especially with the addition of a goalie that had a good chance of being successful at the price you were able to pay. Many others, fans and professionals, thought the same thing. You probably had some inkling that the rest of the division would take a step back and improve your chances for a playoff birth this year. Not an unreasonable position to defend at the beginning of the year.
Fast forward to the trade deadline and your big picture has changed dramatically! You have a new owner who is willing to spend a lot more money. That gives you flexibility to build the team much differently. Not something you can change on the fly and they have probably been discussing that new approach with TD.
At the same time, you’ve seen your team not develop as you would have hoped/thought, especially during crunch time when the intensity picks up. Not a surprising development for a young team. Gonna be a lot of steps forward and steps back, and in our case that has evened out overall, such that we aren’t much better. You look to Charlotte and see prospects develop. While its nice to think calling up some guys to join the big team, would make a difference the likelihood of them helping significantly is slim. Many of the players in Charlotte are in their first 1-2 years of professional hockey and still working on developing their games. We have seen what happens when you rush that process in Lindholm, Hanifin and others. Even Fleury who was given a whole year to develop in the AHL has significant holes in his game. So, its insanity to think that you can repeat the same process and get di different results. So, your best bet is to let them continue to develop and get a taste of what it takes to win under pressure and with intensity in the AHL playoffs. That will pay benefits down the road.
With all of that information, you approach the trade deadline much differently. You know you have structural problems that adding 1 or 2 players won’t fix. You also know that you have money to spend and can build the team much differently in the offseason. You have a good idea of who fits into your new long term plan from the current team and who is likely to fit from Charlotte.
That is how I would frame GMRFs thinking and why, while very disappointed, I am hopeful that this will be a very active offseason and leaves me hopeful for the future. Sorry for the long post.
please comment more frequently, mr hatty.
seconded
I would just like to add two things; 1) When the trade giving Evander Kane to the Sharks came down, I was both sad as well as relieved. He seems to have everything. He’s big and fast and a scorer. Yet, a Sharks fan on the site I was looking at commented, “I thought I learned in biology class that Sharks couldn’t get cancer. ”
2) Jay Greenburg wrote a column today about the deadline he titled, “The buyers all mitigated their risks “. It was very interesting. His ending gave me food for thought. He wrote, “And to the teams that are in striking position of a playoff spot that did nothing, coming away balking at the prices. That may be wise and patient, yes. But it is also an admission that you didn’t have enough goods in the cupboard when you needed them.” Hmmmmmm.
Oh! And one more thing.
Paul Stasny?
Who knew?
Did you know, Ronnie?
Judging from the fact that Vegas got involved in the Brassard deal to keep the Jets away from him, I’d be willing to bet that the Blues would have lowered their asking price just to keep Stasny out of the West.
You knew that. Right, Ronnie?
I get the distinct feeling from the news conference that we are willing to settle for mediocrity if the price is too high, so we wait another year for a play-off push. I am somwhat disappointed that we still use the excuse that the price was too high. The question is will the fan base wait another year or will they simply turn their attention to other areas and forget the Hurricanes? I am still a fan of NHL Hockey but I can’t really say I will buy a ticket to see the Hurricanes. Rather I will be buying a ticket to see the opposing team beat the Hurricanes on home ice. Tonight in Boston we will see what the team is really made off after GM RF has said it was up to the personnel in the locker room. If we lose by double digits, the team has given up this year. If we keep it close they may have a slim chance of making a season of it, probably not in the play off but will make it interesting. If the latter is the case I may stick with the team for another season to see if they can fix it during the off season. Otherwise I may deem it a lost cause and move on. I agree with many of the above posts, where it looks like GM RF is still being handicapped by the expense, where BP has not been given the tools to succeed. While they might bring up pieces from Charlotte to evaluate I am wondering if they will get more then a few minutes of ice time per game. If that’s the case then I would fault both the GM and the coach for flushing the season this early. As you might of guessed I believed this season was the one to take us back to the play offs but have now lost faith we will get there since all the other teams in contention have tried to improve but the Hurricanes still think the cost is too high.
There is a pro hockey team in Fayetteville. I am going to try a game.
I keep forgetting that. You have to really love the game to play pro hockey in Fayetteville.
I only want to make a comment about a recurring theme I have read about on previous posts (excluding this one) , and that is the discussion about moving Victor Rask.
I think it is a very difficult thing to do as a fan to swallow a dose of reality to know your favourite team has created a no-win situation with a player. The last time I can remember is Alexander Semin of course – with that buyout hurting everyone both literally to the team’s cap and emotionally to the organization and fanbase.
But I have read people optimistically discuss trading Rask in package deals etc. But NHL GM’s are much more frugal NOW than they were even when Semin was bought out, and Ron Francis has handed a 6 year contract to a player who is seemingly at BEST a slow-footed passable 3rd line center at 4 million dollars a year. There is probably not a GM in the league that would touch Victor Rask for anything. Even for a 7th round pick just taking that contract is probably not even worth it! So Victor Rask i’m pretty sure is untradeable at this point. I mean he is worth something if you solely look at the boxscore statistics he seems passable but when you watch the video of how slow he plays it does not look like he is going to return to being a first line center potential candidate. The easiest comparable to make Rask untradeable is looking at how David Poile in Nashville signed Calle Jarnkrok to a 6 year deal worth a whole 2 million per season. HALF of what Francis signed Rask to. Jarnkrok is definitely the better player. Plus even worst case scenario if Jarnkrok is a 30 pt bottom 6 player then 2 million is fair value. Our worst case scenario with Rask is the same but that extra money makes his value plummet.
So the organization is quickly heading toward a buyout with Rask or just burying their pride and him on the 4th line because on a playoff contending team that prides themselves on speed Rask just does not fit in anyones top 9. Along with Scott Darling (who I have hopes for a bounce back next season) these two eat up 8 million dollars of hugely negative value.