Yesterday, I posted part 1 of a 2-part series looking forward to building out the Canes roster for the 2016-17 season. You can find my thoughts on goalie and defensemen HERE. The short version is that that part of the equation is reasonably set. Ron Francis will have a critical decision to make in terms of a second goalie, but the blue line is mostly set with players already under contract.
The forward position is much more wide open with a bunch to be figured out between now and next October. With the departure of Kris Versteeg and Eric Staal, 2 more openings were created to go most of the veteran depth forwards coming off contract at the end of this season.
When I net it out, I think you have a first or second line of Nestrasil/JStaal/Nordstrom. They were so good for an extended period of time that I think they are officially a thing. Then you have Skinner/Rask/Lindholm. All 3 figure to be top 9 forwards, but I am not sure if they fit together, and I also view the trio, if left together, as being a good third line and not really a second line. Then there is Jay McClement set to center the fourth line.
If you slot them pessimistically hoping for significant additions, it could arguably look something like:
____/_____/_____
Nestrasil/JStaal/Nordstrom
Skinner/Rask/Lindholm
_____/McClement/____
If you slot it this way, Ron Francis has the tall task of building out an entire first line. Even if you bump Jordan Staal’s line up and call it the first line, Francis still must build a second line or at least most of it.
In terms of filling the 5 blanks, Phil Di Giuseppe is currently a front runner to win 1 of the slots, and it is possible that 1 or more of the unrestricted free agents (Nathan Gerbe, Brad Malone, Riley Nash, Chris Terry) could be brought back. It is also reasonable to think that a spot or 2 could be won by another prospect with Brock McGinn and Sebastian Aho near the top of that list currently.
Francis should have some budget this summer with more than $20 million of contracts coming off the books, but it is still hard to just go buy a first or second line.
So what are Francis’ options to fill the spots not taken by the young players?
1) Follow the Toronto model and rent veterans short-term
One option is to add a number of veteran free agents on inexpensive short-term deals like Toronto did this season. If it works out real well, you count your blessings. If it does not, you have some modest assets for the trade deadline and are not locked into anything long-term.
2) Spend more distant futures to add young NHL-ready help
Another option is to spend from the stockpile of draft picks and prospects who are farther out to add a couple players who could slot into the NHL lineup as a top 9 forward for the 2016-17 season. Options available or potentially available include Jonathan Drouin, Nail Yakupov, Kerby Rychel and others. There are also some promising young players like Ryan Nugent-Hopkins in Edmonton (who needs help on defense) and Alex Galchenyuk (who seems to have dropped in favor in Montreal) who could be available.
3) Captalize on a buyers’ market for the higher-end free agents this summer
Projections seem to mostly have the NHL salary cap as flat for next season with some even saying it could fall. That would be a boon for the Hurricanes who have a ton of budget and salary cap room since it would squeeze the big market teams who are pressing up against the cap and limit the competition for free agents this summer.
If I was in Ron Francis’ shoes, I would lean toward a mix of #1 and #2. Combined I think a mix of these 2 approaches to match Francis’ mantra of building to have a deep system capable of winning not just once but regularly in the future but also play for 2016-17. Trading futures to add NHL-ready young players would decrease the volume of the prospect pool, but it would do so in adding young players who can be part of the long-term, not just short-term lottery tickets. And filling in some of the remaining open slots with veteran NHLers on short-term contracts makes a play for 2016-17 but not by trading futures to do it.
If I had to guess, I think Riley Nash has the best chance to return among the veteran depth players. None of Chris Terry, Nathan Gerbe or Brad Malone have carved out an every-night role this season. My hunch is that Francis will either free up those spots for youth or fill them with players that are at least ‘maybes’ for winning spots in the top 9.
Regardless of how it all shakes out, the opening day roster at forward stands to look significantly different in October 2016 than it did 1 year earlier.
Go Canes!
Great article as always. One other possibility is that Lindholm slots in as a 3C with Aho on his wing. Ron could then spend some money on a solid veteran winger to complement and stabilize that young line. Would then see DiGiuseppe on the wing with Rask and Skinner. That would make filling the remaining forward openings much easier. Very easy to put together a decent 4th line with McClement. JStaal line certainly played like a 1st line for a long time. Would allow us to keep our picks and build the system for the long term while remaining competitive next year.
OK, to stir the proverbial pot. What if Francis puts a trade package together with the two first round picks we have this year, and one of our defensive prospects to get the 2nd or third pick this year. The draft this year is expected to yield only a few young stars that could make the jump immediately to the NHL(My thoughts would center around one of the two Finns).
Note of interest: I am not a huge E Staal fan . . . . but . . . . .
Laine or Puljujarvi/E Staal/Aho
DiGiuseppe/JStaal/Nordstrom
Skinner/Rask/Lindholm
Nestrasil/McClement/McGinn
Ryan – in the door
So what do you think? Am I Psycho?
As far as free agents go, I have always liked Okposo, Plekanec, Nielsen, and Nash(er)
I look at Skinner, Lindholm, Di Giuseppe, and Rask as the catalysts to building out the top 9. Now, Nords/Staal/Nesty have played well this season and the hope is the chemistry can continue, but for the sake of this, let’s assume they going into next season intact. We have seen a lot of Skins/Rask/Lindy this season and last. The nice surprise addition was Di Giuseppe when he was called up and hit it off with Skins and Rask. I think (and Peters just stated this) that you must put Lindy in C and see if he can do it going forward. If he proves for the remaining of the season that he can play C at a consistent rate then we keep him there and try and take one of Di Giuseppe or Skinner and put him with Lindholm. It will be easier for GMRF to shop this summer for 1/3 of lines vs trying to shop for an entire 1st line.
If Lindholm and Skinner can form the best 1st line for us going into next year then put them there and let GMRF do the rest to find the best complement for that line. It is overdue for Skinner to be a top 6 winger. He just has to figure it out and keep producing.
Going into next year I’d like to see:
Skinner / Lindholm / ____
Nords / Staal / Nesty
____ / Rask / Di Giuseppe
_____ / McClem / ______
I understand this isn’t the most ideal, and that some are overslotted a bit, but it’s what is best for the players, it’s time for Lindholm to develop into a 1 or 2 C and Skinner to be a 1 or 2 Winger. Regardless, that is a lot easier for GMRF to pick and choose and pry the right pieces to fit.
The Canes are going to have to spend ~$15M to get up to the salary cap floor. How do you see that money being spent? Some will go to Rask and Nordstrom but that will only make a dent. Veteran rentals on the cheap and guys on their entry level contracts are not going to get us there.
I agree we might see a big trade for someone relatively young like RNH. I would much rather see that than a big veteran free agent signing.
Good thoughts Matt….the options given the players we’re going into next season with are in big-time flux. We don’t have a true #1 center (although that may end up being Lindy or Rask). It really feels like we’ve got two 2nd lines. At any rate, based on what I know, what I think, and a little bit of what I hope, here’s how I see the lines shaking out:
Skinner/Lindholm/XXX
Nordstrom/Staal/Nestrasil
Di Giuseppe/Rask/Aho
XXX/McClement/Nash
Extra forward
Hainsey/Faulk
Slavin/Pesce
Hanifin/Wisniewski
Extra defender
Lack
XXX
I think Ron Francis either trades for a scoring forward or signs a significant free agent to fill in the wing on the 1st line (right wing?). The Nordy/Jordy/Nesty line stays in tact. Aho makes the team and is eased onto Rask’s 3rd line and you’ve got a little physicality with PDG on that line. The 4th line will again be solid (I think Peters and Francis will re-up Nash, especially with his late season surge) and will have a slot open for a Checker to come in an take it (Sutter, Woods, McGinn?).