Parts 1 and 2 of “Building the 2019-20 Carolina Hurricanes” acknowledged the positive trajectory of the team currently but took sort of a devil’s advocate starting point.
Today’s Part 3 looks at the more positive side of things and considers potential upside that resides within the existing roster and organization.
Change in mindset
The sizable hurdle that the Carolina Hurricanes cleared to climb into the playoffs should not be underestimated. After familiar looking ups and downs with more downs in the first half of the season, the team turned the corner and never looked back. The team’s consistency was high, and each and every one of the rare letdowns was followed up immediately with a rebound win. In the NHL, I do think there is ‘learning to win’ is a legitimate thing. If that is the case, then the 2019-20 Carolina Hurricanes should have an advantage over the 2018-19 team simply because the group now knows what it takes.
Remaining upside for a youthful roster
If the Hurricanes were to bring back the exact same roster for the 2019-20 season, there would still be the potential for reasonable step-wise improvement. So many of the leaders on the team are young and still growing as players. Andrei Svechnikov is the most obvious case for future upside, but there are others. Sebastian Aho is still only 21 years old and entering only his second season as a center. His 83 points in 2018-19 would be solid if they proved to be his ceiling, but I think it is possible that he still has one more gear. Warren Foegele and Lucas Wallmark were also rookies last season and have the potential to find a higher gear in their second seasons in the NHL. Even on the back end which is mostly a set of veterans, Brett Pesce and Jaccob Slavin are still early enough in their careers that upside, especially offensively, is still possible. In short, the roster is loaded with players who are very early in their NHL careers and could improve significantly.
Help from Charlotte
What is most significant about the Charlotte Checkers championship is the fact that a significant part of the core of the team was young players who are legitimate NHL prospects. The success was not the story of a bunch of AHL veterans outplaying kids. For the Checkers, it was very much the kids.
What is more, the type of young players leading the way match well with where the Hurricanes have room for improvement. One are for improvement is scoring. Players like Morgan Geekie, Julien Gauthier, Aleksi Saarela, Martin Necas and maybe even Andrew Poturalski are all players whose strengths include scoring ability. Ideally, one or two of these players breaks through in a big way and becomes a top 6 forward, but even if that does not occur there is room for decent step-wise improvement scoring-wise if a couple of these skilled players push their way into the bottom 6. In addition to the forwards, Jake Bean projects as an offense-leaning defenseman who could drive scoring from the back end and more significantly help boost one of the two power play units. Finally, there is Alex Nedeljkovic. Goaltending was overall a strength for the 2018-19 Hurricanes, and there are no guarantees with young goalies. But the potential is still there for more upside in net if Nedeljkovic continues to develop.
Improved special teams play
Special teams were generally a weakness in 2018-19. I do not see that as being just a function of the talent level. I think both the power play and penalty kill are a matter of figuring it out and/or just finding a rhythm. A modest boost, especially for the power play, could provide a nice boost for the team in total.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Which of these do you see providing the greatest upside for the 2019-20 season?
2) Do you see any other potential areas for upside from within the current roster and broader organization?
Go Canes!
The forward group has so many good prospects that it is highly likely another 2 or 3 will be ready next year. In addition to Geekie, Gauthier, Saraala, Necas, and Potsy, Jurco, Roy, Kuokkanen, and Patrick Brown all had solid seasons. Kuokkanen was out for awhile with an injury but played well when available. Toss in Maennalanen and that’s 10 guys who are close enough that any could take another step forward next year and fill a role.
Jason Shaya had s lot of fun with Roy and Gaithier playing together this year, first calling them the French Connection and then the Twin Towers. It’s an intimidating line.
Geekie has been on the fastest improvement path. Necas skill with the puck on his stick and Saraala’s sniping ability are well documented. Poturalski had a great year and is Calder Cup MVP. The wild card is what the players will do in the off season – who will come in and surprise the way Foegele did last year. It literally could be any of the 10 forwards mentioned (or none) who come in and surprise.
I loved RBA’s framing of the off-season. The prospects need to head into the summer with the mentality that they are one month behind peers in the gym. That mentality has the best chance of having them ready for the next step.
Speaking of… Bean still looks like he is maturing physically. A good summer in the gym is perhaps more important for him than anyone else in being ready for the next step.
2) Stelio Mattheos is an RBA style player who has flashes of brilliance now. It will be fun to watch his trajectory.
As pointed out above, about 10+ CLT players will be vying for maybe 1-to-3 NHL slots. And with the NHL team possibly bolstering their top 6F with a proven NHLer, most of the open NHL slots will be bottom 6 roles to start. Necas/Brown/Roy/Gauthier/Jurco (if signed) may have a straighter path to the Canes based on RBA’s team need, than say Sarella/Potsy/Kuokkanen. I think Geekie is a dark horse similar to how Foegele burst on the scene, but even he may be subject to the numbers game.
On defense, Bean/Fleury likely crack the roster, but one of these players, if not McKweon, may be packaged for NHL upgrades at forward or goaltending.
We thought last year’s competition was intense, this year will be nuts.
Two more names. Jesper Sellgren looked very good in the Checkers playoff run, skilled with high hockey IQ, kinda like what we thought Ryan Murphy would be, already defensively better than Gostisbehere is on his good days. While for some here Haydn Fleury is the reincarnation of Tomas Kaberle, Haydn has a big upside, really stood out in the AHL playoffs, and consistently improved in limited use in the NHL last season. Here’s a way out there prediction. His real breakout year will be in 2020-21 on the expansion Seattle team. If you include Potularski on your list, you should include Tomas Jurco as well, however, both are UFAs. Jurco is on rumor lists everywhere since he does not have to wait until July 1st to talk to other teams.
Last year was effectively year 3 of the Canes rebuild. While it seems long, and last seasons trip to Eastern Conference finals seems to belie the fact, we are just entering year 4 of the rebuild. Started by Ronnie Franchise slowly and methodically it was amped up last year by “the committee” without disturbing the trajectory originally set in place. RBA spent a lot of time under Bill Peters. Hopefully the laters inability to trust and develop youth on the squad did not transfer totally to Rod. The on-going rebuild will require some of that next season from the coaching staff.
1) I think there is more upside for Svechnikov/Aho/Wallmark and to some degree Teravainen. I also think Necas/Bean and one other Checker will contribute. So my answer is these two factors will be equally important.
2) We all tend to forget that the opening night roster will be better than the 18-19 team because:
A. Niederreiter will be part of the team for 82 games. Niederreiter can be counted for 20 goals and 50 points. In 75 games last year Niederreiter/Rask/Zykov combined for 15 goals and 39 points;
B. The goalies played at a 101 point pace for 74 games–the other 8 were games Darling started. Even if the new goalie combination includes Ned, I think it is a reasonable starting point to think they can produce at the 96-point pace that usually gets into the playoffs; C. Having Jordan Staal all season would be another improvement–but shouldn’t be taken for granted as other injuries will surely offset having Staal for 82 games.;
D. You mentioned the possible offensive upside from Pesce–once he moved to LD, he was one of the best D-men in the league. In the 32 games in Feb-Apr Pesce scored 4 goals and 18 points, that corresponds to a 10goal/46 point season without any power play time. That added to the fact that Pesce/Faulk shut down some of league’s best top lines translates into more success over 82 games.
And we forgot Clark Bishop. He fit right in and may have played out the season with Carolina if not for an injury. That’s an 11th forward who, with a good off season of condition, could compete for a role.
I think the competition to make the playoffs will be even tougher next year. Especially if guys like E. Karlson. Panerin and Bob are in the east next year. Having said that, I still would be patient. The canes should give their young players a chance.
The team will miss the “enforcer” part of Ferland’s game if he is not brought back. Maybe Foegle or even Saku can do that. I put enforcer in quotes because it is not like decades ago. However, it is still Hockey and you need to able to match up with the Tom Wilsons.
Metro rival Washington’s addition of Gudas to their back line gives them some cap relief and noteworthy additional nastiness. It also reinforces our need to build our nuclear deterrent capabilities.
This week we might want to put up a trade or UFA post with all that’s happening around the league.
I wonder if Quick + Toffoli from the Kings in return for our first round and one or two of our bottom 6 guys (or Fleury ) would make sense.
Sounds like the Kings primarily want to shed JQ’s contract since they have 2 or 3 capable goalies behind him and it sounds like the Canes may be interested.
If this is the case the Canes might be able to pick up Toffoli after a down year without giving up too much in return.
A goalie tandem of Quick and Ned sounds a bit scary, but maybe it’s the way to go.
I think Toffoli is worth a bet as a right handed center on a fairly reasonable contract, someone who can add some playmaking and mentoring.
Still prefer Petr and Ned. Quick had one bad season at 33 and make 7mil next year then 3 for 3 years, 5.8 Cap hit. So that could work if we don’t sign Petr.
Not sure Toffoli adds much more than Wallmart but he does have better hair:)
I read a recent piece in the Cardiac Cane by Joshua Ryan a day ago. In it he proposed a trade between the Canes and the Oilers. Take a look at this;
To Edmonton:
Brett Pesce
RFA Rights to Haydn Fleury
Aleksi Saarela
Roland McKeown
2019 third round pick
Later 1st round pick
We get
Leon Draisaitl
Milan Lucic
RFA rights to Jesse Puljujarvi.
The more I think about this, the more intriguing it becomes.
Don’t think Holland trades Draisaitl. The other 2 a negatives
Interesting, but not with Pesce. We can’t trade a top D men with reasonable cap hit for a pretty good F with twice the cap hit, especially when we add Lucic toxic contract and Paljajarvi is as yet an unproven quantity.
But Fleury + MacGinn + Saarella + Faulk for Leon + rights to P boy sounds interesting.
Oh, in more gossip, the Kings have bought out Phaneuf, so if we want a tough defenseman on the cheap he can probably be signed for a few pucks and some bbq.
Also the latest Eklund rumor blog claims that Pit is talking to Car about a Jordan Staal trade (I don’t believe it and Eklund says nothing about what Pit would give up).
I’d take Malkin for Staal + Fleury, since we have Walmark and Roy and Bishop who are a poor man’s Staal, but short of getting Malkin (who apparently wants out of Pit, again, according to rumors) I’m not sure I’d be in on any such trade. I put the odds of this happening at about 10,000 to 1, but stranger things have happened.
Leon Draisaitl, a “pretty good” forward? He scored 50 goals and 55 assists with a plus 2 rating on a bad team. What would you call a great forward? How many forwards in the NHL scored 100 points or more last season?
Yes. It is the toxic contract of Lucic that would make it worthwhile to the Oilers. That and Draisaitl’s 10 million plus cap hit. We need Lucic to replace Michael Ferland.
Holland is in a desperate way. He needs defensemen. They don’t come much better than Pesce. He needs to unload payroll.
Look at this one a bit longer. It grows on you.
Why would anyone even take Fleury? 🙂 Leave him out and not give the 3rd as a sweetener.
Not a bad idea, just trying to picture it without giving up Slavin or Pesce.
It is a mistake to describe Draisaitl as a superstar. He has only McDavid to thank for making him look like one. Draisaitl can’t hold his own line. And he gave MacLellan all season fits for failing to play full shifts and giving up some shifts entirely. That style of play doesn’t fit in with RBA’s “don’t take a breath” approach to the game.
*fits all season