Yesterday’s Daily Cup of Joe kicked off what will be a meandering series entitled, “Building the 2019-20 Carolina Hurricanes.” That first article considered the 2018-19 season as a starting point.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe continues on a similar path and considers the risks for downside that could see the team go from playoff darling to back on the outside looking in.
Goaltending
The Hurricanes entered the 2018-19 season with two sizable question marks in goal. The starting tandem included reclamation project Scott Darling and other goalie looking for a rebound in Petr Mrazek. In a bizarre twist of fate, the Hurricanes caught arguably their biggest break of the season when Scott Darling was injured late in training camp, and the team was forced to reach to the waiver wire for veteran Curtis McElhinney. At the time, Mrazek was off to a slow start. McElhinney stepped in and provided a calming and stabilizing presence when the team was teetering on the brink of early playoff elimination. That foundation charted a course upward that saw the Hurricanes receive above average goaltending for the first time in years. When a team is successful, there are always multiple contributing factors, but I think that strong goaltending was near the top of the list for the 2018-19 season. With Darling likely set to be bought out, and Mrazek and McElhinney scheduled to become free agents, the Hurricanes do not actually have a goalie under contract right now. Alex Nedeljkovic who is a restricted free agent will certainly be in the picture, but the team has decisions to make past that. If goaltending were to swing from being a positive to being a negative, that could result in a significant swing in terms of points in the standings.
Off-season watch: Just like last summer, the Hurricanes will need to decide on two goalies. The situation is somewhat similar to last summer, and the stakes are just as high.
Health, especially with scorers
As noted in yesterday’s article, the Hurricanes were on the right side of the injury line for the 2018-19 season. The team did have to overcome Jordan Staal’s injury in the middle of the season, and Micheal Ferland was held back by a recurring injury in the second half of the season, but in total the Hurricanes were a healthy group with nine players playing all 82 games and another player logging 81 games. If the team does not add scoring help, I think it could be especially vulnerable to losing one of the few offensive catalysts like Sebastian Aho or Teuvo Teravainen.
Off-season watch: Adding a player or two would offer more depth if the team encounters more injuries.
The offense in total
One huge positive from the 2018-19 season and also the playoffs was the team’s ability to generate offense from its forecheck. That success of Brind’Amour’s system gave the team the ability to generate offense 18 players deep that was not dependent on raw playmaking. The result when working was balanced scoring that reached across the lineup. That system-driven offense is a huge positive but it is not a 100 percent substitute for sheer playmaking and finishing ability. The Hurricanes surged late in the season to finish a respectable 16th in goal scoring, but the team did face intermittent scoring issues especially early in the season. The system-generated offense is a double-edged sword. No doubt the effect on depth scoring can be positive, but being light on pure playmakers and finishers makes it harder sometimes to get the couple big plays needed to swing a game. Also with only one true scoring line, an injury to Sebastian Aho could be catastrophic offensively. The team does have two potentially positive wild cards in this regard. First, there is significant room for improvement for the power play which would provide another source of scoring. In addition, the Hurricanes have players at the AHL level who could boost scoring if able to win an NHL spot and settle in.
Off-season watch: In an ideal world, I think the Hurricanes could use one more player capable of being a catalyst not just a complement on a first or second scoring line. Past Matt Duchene and Artemi Panarin who will cost a king’s ransom in free agency. In terms of next level options, there really are not a ton of options via free agency, so if this is an off-season priority, a trade might be required.
Expecting rather than earning success
At the very center of the Hurricanes 2018-19 season was a team that to a man worked incredibly hard. That every player, every game, every shift work ethic is critical. If the Hurricanes get cocky based on 2018-19 and just expect to make the playoffs, the team will almost certainly find itself on the wrong side of the ledger in too many games. The experience of Rod Brind’Amour and hopefully a returning Justin Williams will need to provide leadership in this regard.
Off-season watch: Training camp should offer an early view into whether the Hurricanes are able to quickly re-find the top gear that propelled them to success in the second half of the 2018-19 season.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Which of these risks for the 2019-20 season concern you most?
2) What, if anything, would you do to address any of these risks during the off-season?
3) Do you see any other risks that could be pitfalls in 2019-20?
Go Canes!
Certainly goaltending is the primary concern. Close behind that is top 6 scoring help, especially someone who can jumpstart the PP. I think you’re correct – this team is one Aho injury away from being desperately thin at the top.
Another pitfall could be holding a spot for Williams late into the summer. With Ferland certainly gone, Williams’ decision amplifies the urgency to add to the top 6. If the team THINKS Williams is coming back, they may not be as aggressive as the need to be should he retire. If they would have paid Ferland $3.5 mil/year and Williams was earning $4.5 mil/year, that’s potentially $8 mil/year that the team might have to go sign or trade for a scoring help.
Williams coming back is ideal, especially because of his leadership and connection to RBA. But if he’s going to retire, I hope that his decision comes before the draft so the team can be aggressive.
1) Health. That is key for even the best teams.
2) I think “earning” wins will actually come more from Checkers call-ups than outside players. Whether it was scoring 2 goals in the last 100 seconds of a game or bringing in a decent backup goalie in Tokarski and turning him into a beast, the Checkers even more than the Canes got the best from every player every shift. Vellucci has instilled team commitment into the entire prospect pool. Sure whomever is up will be a rookie and will have struggles, but I think Necas, Bean, Ned and one other forward (Saarela, Kuokkanen) will boost both the offense and the winning atmosphere.
3) Other teams will have made adjustments to offset the constant forechecking style. RBA will need to counter with his own modifications.
Finally, I see Williams’ situation differently than Darth. Given the captaincy and success, I would be stunned if Williams doesn’t want another year or two. My guess is the organization might be trying to economize–otherwise I see no reason he isn’t already signed.
Risks. Hockey is a risky business. Roddy, Tommy, and Donny find themselves managing risks every day.
We fans don’t get to see or even hear about most of them. But those risks are there, nonetheless.
Our blindness puts us in a position to take things out of context and jump to erroneous conclusions. Let us here take a look at Willy and his seeming indecision as to whether or not to sign for another year or two.
Several on this site assume that Willy is yet another victim of Tommy’s miserly ways. “Another victim”? What other victims are there?
Some think that Willy is trying to decide whether he has another season or two in him.
Looking at Willy’s history, I doubt that he is motivated by money. He has often expressed a soft spot in his heart for my beloved Canes. He and Roddy were a part of the magic that took this team deep into the playoffs this year as well as to the Stanley Cup in 06.They made a pact with the players. And the players with them. The duration of this pact extends beyond the end of last season.
Willy is not going anywhere. He might retire, but he will not leave my beloved Canes for greener pastures. For him, there are no greener pastures. This is it. He demonstrated his devotion to the team and its members in every game.
So, why is he not just signing up? That’s easy. Michael Ferland.
Say what?!?!!!
I know. I know. Heavy hockey is dead. Today’s NHL and all of that. Yet, just look at the playoffs.
We played most of the playoffs without Ferland. We played much of the playoffs without our number two enforcer, Jordan Martinook. And some of us on this site couldn’t figure out why Aho went quiet. Where was Svech? What happened?
What happened was our scorers were getting the snot knocked out of them by Wilson, Ovi, Orpik, Leddy, Marchand, Chara, Kuraly, et al. Our hitters (and we have several)were uninspired absent the inspiration normally provided by Ferland and Martinook.
We have scorers. We have an enviable stockpile of them in Charlotte. We don’t need to give away the family jewels for Matt Duchene, Artemi Panarin, Taylor Hall or the like. I absolutely promise you that you will be hugely disappointed if we do.
What we need to do is either sign Ferland or replace him. And by replacing him I mean his ability and willingness to visit violence upon those who wish to take liberties with our guys.
No need to worry about chemistry. A nasty intimidater who swiftly and effectively comes to the rescue to save one of our guys from bullies will easily win the hearts of his teammates.
We need to replace Ferland and maybe add another one to our defense corps.
Once we accomplish this, I have no doubt that Willy will sign. So will the Seabass.
Your logic is compelling, I agree completely. During the cold war MAD (mutually assured destruction) kept the world safer. While this in no means suggests we hire a goon to skate 7+ minutes a night, fear of retaliation on a large scale would keep our skilled players safer. I agree someone like Ferland is worth the money needed, I also suggest Carrick has a Gleason-like game and could provide a 3rd pairing nuclear deterent.
Go check the Canes record in the playoffs this year in games Ferland played vs. games Ferland did not play.
I was unable to find those stats. What were they?
You can just look at the lineup for each game and see if they won or lost. It isn’t pretty for Ferland.
Less Staal and Ferland, the team avoided the serious injury bug in 2018-19. Had Aho, Slavin or any other vital player went down for even a small stretch we may have missed the chance at this electric playoff run. While you cannot replace every star player if they were to go down, perennial playoff teams have reasonable contingencies in place (see Bruins).
My opinion probably goes against most, but I think Williams retires. He did his duty and overshot even the highest expectations, and that just isn’t something he may be able to repeat emotionally and physically. And lets face it, with adding talent to the roster he’d be relegated to 3rd/4th line duty, which we have a plethora of suitable players on the cheap chomping at the bit. The team is in better hands now, and I think management goes offseason shopping. We can insert Necas, Bean, Fleury, McKweon and Ned into the mix and they will likely play key minutes in phases. But it all starts with known firepower. I still feel we need to pay for a playmaking 2C that can backfill as a 1C (if Aho were to miss time). We need a veteran left shot defenseman who can backfill top 4D. We also need a veteran goaltender who has been a proven starter and will pair nicely with Ned (60/40 split until Ned shows ready). This means not paying a few current roster players to make this happen, but again, the team HAS to get better and improve. You can improve from last year by inserting a few rookies AND bringing in a couple proven NHLers. Improving with near the exact roster may only lead to let downs.
I’ll keep this short and simple!
Williams returning is important, and if he doesn’t we need a veteran who can replace him…WHO, I DON’T KNOW!
Because of the good GK results from Mraz and Mac,I’d resign them both, and ALSO KEEP NED. LET THEM COMPETE…in camp, THEN decide what to do…LATER!
Lastly, and most importantly, I’d sign Panarin!
I don’t care how many POSSIBILITIES WE HAVE IN CHARLOTTE, THE BREAD-MAN IS A STAR!
Because replacing Williams would likely be hard, maybe they could sign him as a player-coach! Win/Win, and maybe he could Fix the powerplay!
The biggest risk is injury – we didn’t quite skirt around the injury demon. In addition to losing Staal for 30 (+/-) games. Ferland played the last half of the season with a nagging injury (according to Sara Civian). Aho was playing injured for the last 20 games into the playoffs (according to RBA). We lost TvR late. Martinook and CdH played injured late and into the playoffs.
Goaltending is a risk, of course, but that is hopefully well addressed by preseason.
The other risk is regression, both individually and as a team. Both RBA and DW indicated at the end of the season that this team “over-achieved”. If there is n effective regression to the mean – and that can be expected – we won’t be as good – so we need to get better as a team.
And one other risk – RBA won’t trust players (specifically from Charlotte) who can make a difference. He didn’t trust Fleury and we played 5-deep on D against Boston. That is not going to cut it. Playing Fleury more – even if you have to protect – gives him confidence and takes the pressure off the other 5. I can see this issue raising it’s head again next season.
tj. I too worry that RBA will be hesitant to let skilled players fail. I hope I am wrong, but I think he gave Foegele much more time than he would give Saarela with similar production. I understand that Foegele causes havoc even when he isn’t scoring. But if a Saarela or Gauthier ever find their scoring touch at the NHL level, the Canes will have a scary good team. Rookies are going to struggle to produce, but skilled rookies need a lot of games and significant time in those games to develop.
Exactly, and your choice of names is a good one. Saarela deserves an opportunity to showcase his shot at the NHL level – that shot may make up for other areas of initial weakness. To this day I don’t think RBA gave Zykov a real opportunity to play his game.
Edmonton nor Vegas gave Zykov much of a shot either.
I absolutely agree. Fleury was the clearest example of this for me.
If RBA brings him up to play D, he needs to play D, if he is just going to sit on the bench we might as well bring in any guy off the street to do it.
Having only 5D crushed the team in the Bruins series, it would not have fared any worse by letting Fleury actually play; or, if he could not be trusted, bring up Bean.
Fleury even scord a short-handed goal after returning to Charlotte and was a key defensemen in their run to the Calder cup.
RBA must find the right approach with skilled players, because we need them too.
Culture and toughness alone wont win you a cup.
We gave a 40+ goal scorer away for nothing, in his final contract year too. That was about the ddumbest trade any manager could ever make, and hopefully that kind of mistake is not going to be repeated.
Having a “tough guy” or “goon” or whatever you call them is all well and good, but they cannot prevent key players from getting injured and their tendency to fight will at minimum yield a powerplay, wich can be detrimental, at maximum can distract the team from its primary task, to win goals, and get them banned for one or more games.
Yes, we need at least one tough guy, and Ferland did well and should be resigned for the right price (maybe 2.5 mll for 2 years), but I think after you hva one tough guy, you actuall need to score on your powerplays, to discourage the enemy from taking advantage of you.
I think in the Bruins series the Bruins were all too happy to take penalties, knowing that it would practically reduce their chances of being scored on, due to theCanes pathetic powerplay.
breezy. Excellent points.
I will just point out the Canes made the ECF. It wasn’t pretty, but we all would have taken being swept in late May had we been offered that at this time last year. Think about the progress: Canes found a 1C; Canes have good goalie options; everyone on the fourth line scored more than 2 goals.
I will go on record now and say I will take another playoff appearance even with a first round exit if Necas, Bean, and Ned become contributors. Because that will mean after next season only the ECF or playing in June will be acceptable. I want to see the Canes win next year, but I just as much want to see them add the last pieces of what is going to be a great foundation for the next 5-8 years.
If you are wondering about Ferland, earlier today Waddell said he has not talked Ferland or his agent. Because Waddell is talking about everyone else he is talking with it is safe to assume, I believe, that Waddell will go the UFA route.
https://www.newsobserver.com/sports/article231439148.html
The Canes need to have open roster spots for Checkers graduating to the NHL. As a UFA Ferland is vacating one of those slots that will be needed unless a trade occurs that sends more players away than arrive. Ferland may be a victim of contract demands of dollars and term that surpass his value, or simply a victim of the numbers game in the NHL. Either way his path back to the Canes will not be an easy straight line.