The season officially ended on Sunday, and after a couple fairly quiet days, deal season might have officially launched with news that the Tampa Bay Lightning have traded Jonathan Drouin to Montreal for high-end defense prospect Mikhail Sergachev and a conditional draft pick swap that sees Montreal also net a second-round pick in exchange for a sixth-round pick if Sergachev plays 40 or more games at the NHL level.
Canes and Coffee has already been busy working to build the 2017-18 Carolina Hurricanes roster. The most recent entry worked through a large list of mostly good players who did not make the cut for a top 10 target list for impact forwards.
Or if you want to start from the beginning or browse all of it, “2017-18 Carolina Hurricanes Roster Building Central” has a chronological list of all of the entries.
The series of articles has mostly laid out what my plan would be, who I like and don’t like and a number other related things that chart a reasonably definedpath, but either during the day Friday or otherwise soon I will take a shot at naming names and doing deals.
But for Friday’s Daily Cup of Joe, I am going to take a small diversion and offer up an anecdotal list of things I feel that I like significantly more or less than others.
Things I like more than others…
Speed over size. Don’t get me wrong; all other things being equal, bigger is better than smaller. And I do think there is a need for size in a lineup and also that the Hurricanes are a little short in this regard at forward. But if forced to choose only one of fast/quick or big/strong, I take fast/quick every time especially when it comes with skill (which it often does because undersized pluggers get ZERO chance develop or surprise whereas players with size get time and chances to develop into a player over time).
Nathan MacKinnon. By no means is it the case that others do not like Nathan MacKinnon. They do. But for me, he is just head and shoulders above the other options. MacKinnon was the focus of my June 6 Daily Cup of Joe that ranked him as the top target. At 21 years old he has significant upside and the potential to be a true C1 on a scoring line. He is reasonably proven at the NHL level despite his age. He is locked in for six years at a reasonable (not cheap but reasonable) $6.3 million per season. He plays with pace mostly in a straight line which fits Bill Peters’ system and how he wants to play and attack on offense. Put more sucinctly, he is just better than even the good alternatives. Big question is whether he is even available and what the price would be.
Phil Di Giuseppe. I have been on the Di Giuseppe bandwagon for some time. To be clear, I do not see him transforming into an elite scoring, pure top 6 forward. (That is possible but unlikely.) But I like what his game has become in terms of his play without the puck. He is decent skater who pushes it every shift to play a step or two faster than he is. He is physical, and important for his hard forechecking, physical style of play, he is incredibly consistent shift in and shift out. As a player drafted more for his skill than rugged play, I continue to think that he is inches away from being able to slow things down just an instant with the puck on his stick and finish more. There are no guarantees, but I think if he can do that, he becomes a pretty good #8 or #9 forward who brings a physical element that the Hurricanes are light on and also enough scoring. Admittedly, my upside vision for Di Giuseppe was not realized at all in a scoring-lite 2016-17 season that say him produce only at a level for a serviceable fourth-liner.
The Edmonton Oilers trade options at forward. I had Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Jordan Eberle at #9 and #10 respectively in my rankings for ‘big fish’ forward rankings for the Hurricanes. Both players are much-maligned right now. And as players now past 25 and known quantities, neither has much ‘wow’ factor or untapped upside. But I think both players have a few good things going for them. Both are proven NHLers. Their floors are pretty high, and the predictability of what a team would receive in either is reasonably well known.
I also think that both are better than advertised in terms of level of play. I had an interesting conversation with someone who covers the Edmonton Oilers full-time and tracks them at the same every-game level that I track the Canes. Neither’s 2016-17 top line statistics were eye-popping. Eberle had 51 points and Nugent-Hopkins an even lower 43, barely above the ‘good depth scoring’ level. But viewed in the context of their role, maybe that is not so bad. Nugent-Hopkins is viewed as being the third line center behind McDavid and Draisatl in Edmonton, but in reality, he spent much of the season in a C2 checking line role somewhat similar to Jordan Staal’s playing a bunch of minutes against the other team’s best. Quite regularly, Edmonton’s preference was to exploit mismatches and weaker lines and defensemen with a lethal McDavid/Draisatl combination and then trust Nugent-Hopkins very often with Eberle to hold their own against the opponents’ top scoring line. Nugent-Hopkins finished a minus 3 and Eberle a minus 6 which compares poorly on an Oilers’ team that was slightly above even in total. But the Hurricanes do not need another Jordan Staal to lead a shutdown line. What if one of them was returned to their roots so to speak and teamed with a higher-end offensive player or two and tasked with opening things up and scoring? Is 65 points possible? That is the question that Francis and his scouting team must answer in assessing Nugent-Hopkins and Eberle.
In addition, Nugent-Hopkins and Eberle have the greatest chance of being had for a reasonable or possibly even discounted price.
Things I like less than others…
Talking about acquiring Leon Draistatl. He fits in the ___ is the ____/McDavid that matches up with Malkin/Crosby that seems to be working out pretty well. I think there is literally zero chance Draisatl leaves. If someone puts forward a crazy max offer sheet, the Oilers will grumble, plan revenge and then match it to keep him. And there is no way the Oilers are trading him. I wrote about the improbability of Francis using offer sheets in more detail on June 1.
The potential for Eddie Lack having a future in a Hurricanes uniform. I recognize that views are mixed on the goalie situation and that things slant in Ward’s direction overall, but I am still surprised by how many people think Lack could be a #2 in Raleigh next fall. Unless Las Vegas surprises and selects Ward, I just do not see it. Ward was better than Lack in 2016-17 for a much longer period of time. Lack’s short burst of a few games in March did not change that. Further, Ward’s tenure and locker room leadership role with the team do matter. Though I think Francis will try to include Lack in another deal, I continue to think that the most likely ending is an Eddie Lack buy out shortly before the June 30 deadline after all other possibilities have been exhausted. I do think there is a small chance that Francis keeps Lack to be a veteran in Charlotte, but that is the equivalent of having a $1 million goalie in the AHL ($3 million 2016-17 salary less $2 million that Canes would owe him if they buy him out). For a team that has an internal budget and with a general manager doing all he can push for the playoffs in 2017-18, I do not see Francis investing $1 million in an #3 goalie in the AHL.
T. J. Oshie. He is a good player and a proven goal scorer, but I am on record as coming nowhere close to paying him $6.5-7 million only to realize that his production next to Victor Rask or Jordan Staal will not match what he did next to Kuznetsov and Backstrom.
A whole bunch of other good NHL forwards in terms of being a fit for what the Hurricanes need to add. I ranted and raved about this twice already in my May 31 article about ‘shiny things’ and also in my June 13 article that put a large number of pretty good forwards distinctly in a second tier largely because of an imperfect match between what they could bring and what the Hurricanes needed.
Valentin Zykov’s chances to crack the Hurricanes’ opening day lineup. To be clear, he did everything he could to make an impression in his one NHL game in 2016-17. (I do not count his second game with a single shift before being injured.) I also think his consistency going to the front of the net are something that the Hurricanes need more of. Based on those two things alone, I think he will be watched in training camp. But I think it is too much of a leap to mark him as a high probability or even 50/50 shot to make the opening day lineup based on the tiny sample size. I pin his chances at 15-20 percent.
What say you Caniacs?
What things are you reading or hearing during the off-season buzz that you feel differently about than the majority?
If not Valentin Zykov (or maybe you do like his chances), which dark horses do you like to seize an opening day roster spot?
Go Canes!
Like more:
First, I totally agree with you Matt about SIZE. You and dmiller got me interested in the analytic world of hockey. I have been catching up on all the articles and podcasts from HockeyGraphs. They had a recent podcast about drafting strategy–a woman is working on a model based on past drafts. Two big findings: 1) Small players are significantly underrated; 2) In general, teams should “shoot for the moon” and draft players with first-line potential even if they also have a much higher risk of being busts. When the draft discussion comes around on C&C, I have some strong opinions on specific players.
Second: AHO AT CENTER. I understand that others are high on this as well. But since you mentioned Draistatl, my opinion is that sometime in the next 3-5 years Aho’s numbers will be statistically equal to Draistatl’s as a center. Watching the World Championships made me think Aho is in that group just behind McDavid among young centers.
Third, the whole FIRST LINE/FIRST PAIRING concept. No doubt certain players will get significantly more minutes due to special teams (and if you have a Crosby, McDavid, or Karlsson you get as many minutes a night as practicable). But the future is where all forwards get 12-13 minutes of 5-on-5 and all D get 16-17 minutes of 5-on-5. And I actually think this is a good thing for the Canes as they are developing young skill players who will be “depth” forwards and “bottom” pairing D.
PESCE. I am not saying others don’t like him enough, just that there seems to be a general feeling that he is super solid, but not quite the potential elite D-man that Slavin is. My opinion is that they are pretty much equal and will both be near-elite for the next 8-10 years.
Finally, HAYDN FLEURY. I think he can be nearly as good as Slavin–especially if paired with Pesce. The one statistic that gives me confidence is 8 minutes of penalties in his first season playing with professionals/adults. He obviously didn’t get overwhelmed or caught out of position too often. Those things are key for a young D. If the Canes can get the 3/4 D that you think they should, then if it is a right D, I would pair the acquisition with Slavin and give Fleury every chance to succeed playing beside Pesce.
Like less:
HITS AND GRIT are overrated. Again the analytic folks display this clearly. For instance, there seems to be an overwhelming consensus that come playoff time being more physical is mandatory. Again HockeyGraphs has looked into that. And for the past two seasons it just isn’t the case. That is not to say that hits don’t increase in the playoffs, just that the teams who hit more and increase their hitting more from the regular season fare worse.
MY OWN IDEAS from 3 months ago. Seriously, the more I read posts and comments here at C&C and dive into some of the analytic stuff, I realize I have opinions that don’t have any good basis. So by the time the season starts all of the above will make me think “boy was I ignorant.”
I am on the fence about Zykov. For one game, he added a net-front presence that the Canes didn’t have. It was the first game of the point streak, and probably just coincidental, but starting with that game Lindholm, Skinner and others seemed more likely to fight for position around the crease. Almost like they saw what Zykov do it and thought “oh yeah, that makes sense.”
Matt and Cory have convinced me that Foegele has the intangibles to make the team and improve the fourth line (whether it plays 9 or 13 minutes a game).
CTCaniac…Bunch of great comments as always, but I especially like the Pesce one. Slavin might be best right now. Faulk has become an elite blue line scorer. Hanifin’s ceiling is incredibly high. Pesce…He is just a really solid defenseman, exactly the kind teams need to win.
There’s been some comparison of Slavin to Vlasic which I believe is warranted. But as I think about their games, I believe it is Pesce that is the more comparable.
ct, you covered this topic in great detail and have some good observations. For sake of brevity I’m going to give my opinion of each of your points.
1. Size versus speed. Speed is most important and a must. Given that two players are both equally fast, then give me the big man. He opens the icemore IMO.
2. Aho, I think you may be right here. Put Aho on ice with teammates comparable with what Draisaitl plays with and he might be the better of the two.
3. Agree with you. The future is 4 lines that can play reasonable minutes.
4. Pesce. IMO you are correct in your assessment.
5. Hayden Fleury. I HOPE you are right. I have no knowledge to refute your assessment so I am optimistic you are correct. I like your reasoning. It’s the first I’ve seen amongst the C&C experts that is a real positive sign that he may be ready for prime time.
6. Hits and grit. Strength in clearing players from in front of the net and hits in that area to me are just another valuable asset a player can have. Otherwise, just running helter skelter and hitting everything in sight just take the hitting player out of position usually. Not high on my list of needed attributes, but if done in a controlled manner can help in defense as I have outlined and on offense to open up the ice some. Speed and size opens the ice better though IMO.
7. Smarts. I’ve read your stuff for months now. I don’t recall having much disagreement with you on anything because anyone cited any proof positive analytics. I agree that analytics are a useful tool in analysis, but disagree with the “Boy, am I ignorant..” phrase. Relative to the rest of us C&C’ers at least, you are as good as they come and one reason I read this site every day.
8. Zykov. Getting to the front of the net with good hands is the key for CONSISTENT scoring IMO. If that is a description of Zykov, he will be productive at some point IMO.
9. Amen on Foegle. I saw him on TV this year. That with the opinions and views of others has me convinced he will be an NHL player.
Great comments ct. I agree with everything you said. Size is not everything, aho will be elite, pesche is just as good as slavin (that is why we should extend both at the same rate to keep everyone happy), and fleury has the potential to be great also. That is why I am so hung up on not trading the D.
MacKinnon would be great but I just do not see it. The Avs will want so much. I do not see them as a trade partner. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins or Jordan Eberle would be nice addition but I am not sure Edmonton wants picks. Anybody we trade with will have to want draft picks. I do not see us moving to many players. Montreal will probably want a D for Galchenyuk. Unless they are good with McKeown/Carrick and picks we probably will not trade with them.
I am in the camp of thinking T. J. Oshie would be the best UFA addition. Look at what he does in shootouts. Even though I would want him I do not think we would pay the high salary and somebody would outbid us. We have the cap space but I think internal budget would not allow it to happen.
RF may not do too much trading unless he can unload some picks. We are fortunate that we have several guys in the AHL and Q who could make the team. Roy, Foegele, Saarela, Wallmark and Zykov. I do agree they are still developing but any one of them could surprise.
First, ctcaniac, thanks for the compliment. Participating in this discussion is one of the daily activities I’ve come to enjoy the most, and the back and forth with you and the rest of us is what gets me to challenge my views on hockey, which are less informed than you make them seem. Nevertheless, thank you for giving back to me here.
Like more than others:
1/ Lindholm/Aho at Center. I think they’re going to be ready far sooner than others do, maybe even the coaches. I realize it’s a short sample size, but Lindholm was top 10 in primary assists since December; to me, that’s the definition of an elite playmaker. Put a great finisher on his line (Eberle, etc.) and it scores in bunches. And he’s become physical, too – I just think he’s become a real beast and expect it to continue next season. Aho – it’s just a question of when, not if.
2/ Finisher over a Center. See #1. By ’18-19 with Lindholm, Aho, Staal, Rask, we become very deep down the middle. That is why I’m not sold on trading a Top 4 on D for anyone, even McKinnon. Let’s surround these guys with elite finishers: there are more of them, they’re not nearly as expensive, and it probably wouldn’t include giving up anyone on D.
3/ Nylander. He’s young and talented and our core guys just played with him at the Worlds. He fits #2 above but is a natural Center so could be a great fallback if I’m wrong about #1.
4/ Totally agree on Pesce. His offense is underrated because he lacks Slavin’s speed and flash, but his shot from the point is better than Slavin’s. I actually think we’re going to have serious competition among Pesce, Slavin, Hanifin, and Faulk for who plays point on the PP. Within a year, all four will be good options (if Hanifin’s shot improves – I hope he’s working on it this offseason). And he’s our most physical D-man.
Like less than others:
1/ Getting an elite Center. See above. Enough said.
2/ Trading any of our core 4 on D. I just wouldn’t do it. Period. The upside is too high for the value we’d receive back in a trade. Maybe next year, when we have more serious Cap math issues and when the performance is more proven, the time will be right. Not this year.
3/ Our depth at Forward. I’m not yet convinced that anyone is ready to come in and do anything approaching what Aho did this year. Everyone seems at least another year away and more in the productivity range of PDG or McGinn. I’d like to be wrong here but my sense is that Gauthier and Roy and Foegele and Saarela are still developing physically. Wallmark and Zykov may be the only exception. They may be excelling against their age-group but the NHL is a man’s league and I’m just not sure they’re ready for that yet. A year in CLT is probably in order for all of them.
As for Zykov, I have no idea. I haven’t seen enough of him. What I do know is that we need someone to plant himself at the top of the paint and not get pushed around there. He seems to have that Hornqvist-like skill, which we need more of.
One more thing … I don’t like Rask’s contract. I think it’s too long at that price for the production, and I don’t see him having a ceiling much higher than where his is now. To hedge all this Center talk, I would be in favor of trade like this: Rask + 2nd/3rd for Stepan. Hard to do inside the Metro, but look at what TBY/MTL just did.
DMiller, I tend to agree about Rask, and also think Stepan could be a good choice…I’m curious about why you thought about him, and what other C you might consider as well?
Thanks!
I like the idea of somehow upgrading the Center position without giving up a Top 4 D-man. I also don’t like Rask’s contract. NYR is going to be rethinking their formula. They don’t have a 2nd or 3rd this year so getting Rask and more salary cap space and a pick may be a nice fit for them.
Stepan isn’t the only name that would work here. Maybe this is how we get Galchenyuk or even RNH.
Dman, I agree with your assessment of Rask and have stated so previously. I’ve also suggested him as part of a trade to Colorado along with Fleury to get MacKinnon or another one of their top line forwards (Duchene or Landeskog). I don’t know that I agree with the trade for Stepan, but your opinion is as good as mine. Base upon my outstanding prognostications (????..it’s all in the eye of the beholder), RF might be better off listening to you.
I’m with you on not trading any of our core defensemen. On Nylander I share your thoughts.
Love the idea of trading Rask and picks for Stepan but I believe it will take that plus one of the young d-men (Fleury, Bean, et.al.) to get within shooting range to make a deal. Stepan would be a great fit. I didn’t realize he’s so young (27 I think?). Seems like he’s been around forever.
Guys, I couldn’t disagree more about Rask’s contract. It is as solid as it gets. A 45-55 point center in this league typically gets paid in the $3.75 to $5 million range. Look at Rakell, Frolick, or Anisimov. All have similar production (or less) and all have comparable contracts. Wait to see what Kevin Hayes or JT Miller gets paid this season. My guess is they get higher salaries than Victor.
CT your interest and apparent understanding of analytics /stats, is most welcome and appreciated by me. I think they are very useful, and cause “people-and even me-” to think! (Mostly a good thing)…
In my working career I took several “STATS” courses, and HATED everyone! They just bored me, I knew they could be useful, but…
Anyway, someone who utilizes them can learn a good deal, and I’m glad you take the time and effort to pass on all this good info, thanks.
I agree with a lot of your takes, on Fleury and Foegele especially.
One question… about HITS, what more can you tell us about effectiveness /or lack thereof?
puckgod. I probably overstated what the Hockey-Graphs article discussed. What they concluded based on studying 2014-15 season, 2015 playoffs, and 2016 playoffs was: “no decisive correlation was found between a team’s increased hitting and success.” For this year’s playoff they found: “there has not been a clear pattern throughout the playoffs that shows a link between increased hits and CF% per series.”
As I think about that more, I think the finding is not so much that hitting or “playing with grit” doesn’t help, but that changing a team’s propensity to hit doesn’t improve the other parts of a team’s game nor does it have any significant impact in decreasing the ability of the opponent to execute.
Or more simply, hitting may be fun for the fans but it doesn’t really help a weaker team win a series against a better team.
In the playoffs, successful teams don’t change their style, they just ratchet up what has been working well. So if they are a physical team, the intensity of that physicality will increase. If they are a skill and finesse team, ditto. Teams tend to “dance with the one that brung ya”.
“Be careful what you wish for…” this is what came to mind, when I considered which, if any of the prospects, are possibly ready for THE BIG TIME… Certainly Walmark seems on the cusp, and Fleury could possibly do pretty well on the 3rd pairing… but are they BOTH MENTALLY AND PHYSICALLY READY…? We may see in camp.
If RF believes one or two of the rookies are ready for primetime, it could (probably would) change /confirm his plan(s) for player acquisitions… I’m not sure THAT is a good thing…?
Our forward lines are NOT deep in talent, and two adds would not be overkill…IMO! That said, I don’t really expect RF ADDS TWO FORWARDS, one maybe… (unless we’re talking the cheap variety).
My thinking is…I’d rather have an excess-talent-problem…than a lack-of-talent-problem… AT THE VERY LEAST…THIS WOULD BE A NOVEL SITUATION for this team…grin, grin, LOL!
One thing PG, Wallmark played two professional seasons with men in Sweden, the 3rd best league in the world. I’m not worried about his mental make-up. Physically, he’s a bit slight, but didn’t look out of place at all during his end of the season audition. Only time will tell.
Matt, some very interesting observations. The debate over size and skill is one that has raged in the NHL forever. Interestingly enough, the one characteristic that’s missing in this discussion is strength. Sidney Crosby’s lower body strength is off the charts (to go along with his mad skills). Lindholm’s game dramatically improved after Rod Brind ‘Amour called him out on his off-season conditioning and strength work (he worked out with Backstrom’s trainer last summer). Skinner puts in the long hours in the weight room. Rask’s slight step back might be attributable to his off season shoulder surgery where he didn’t have as much time to get into game shape (therefore tailing off as the season wore on). Aho is sneaky strong. Pesce is one of those wiry strong guys you’d never want to get into a street fight with. I could go on….the point being is that strength is one of the most important factors to consider.
I really hope there’s some way that GMRF could snag Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. I believe he would be able to step right on to a scoring line with Skinner. It would allow Rask to center a line with Teravainen and a bigger body. Otherwise, I’m also in the came that Top 6 scoring forward of any variety cures a lot.
I believe that Wallmark and Fleury have the inside track and have been pencilled in to the line-up. Essentially, the 4C and #6 LHD roles are theirs to lose. There is some likelihood that one other Checker could make the team (1RW – doubtful or 2LW or 3LW – more probable). In the end, I wouldn’t be surprised to see 2 good but not great players added to the roster plus a #5 RHD. We were close last season, but not close enough. There was a talent deficit and Ronnie needs to fix that before October.
Finally, and I’m one of the biggest Warren Foegele fans out there. He’s not ready for the NHL. Give him 1/2 a season in the AHL, give him some spotty call ups, and let him get used to pro speed and skill. Valentin Zykov, Aleksi Saarela, and Andrew Poturalski probably have the best shot with Janne Kuukonen having an outside chance. Personally, of all these guys, I believe Zykov has the best chance. Not only because he impressed with his fearlessness in going to the net, but also because of his wicked wrister and skating that is much better than most know. He’s also very responsible defensively. Even though he is listed as an LW, he’s got a right-handed shot and should easily be able to slip into a 3RW role. That’s why I give him a slight advantage to making the team.