Let me start by saying that I am generally pleased with the current state of the Hurricanes especially if Justin Williams returns for one more season as the captain. So the aim of this article is not to predict doom but rather to acknowledge potential Achilles’ heels.
The blue line
The trade of Calvin de Haan made sense in that he was a fifth top 4 defenseman and pricey for that role. When one also considers the injury risk coming off a second shoulder injury, the trade measured by itself has some merit. But I think what the team lost was a potential stabilizing force. De Haan was arguably the team’s most boring defenseman in 2018-19. His game is a non-dynamic, vanilla version of being decent defensively but not offering much offensively. But in terms of being part of the formula that worked in 2018-19, I think de Haan played two key roles. First, he was part of the equation that helped Justin Faulk right the ship after a tough 2017-18 season. At the same time, de Haan made it possible to bump Dougie Hamilton to the third pairing when he was struggling such that he could find his bearings and not have to do so under the pressure of a top 4 role.
Justin Faulk rebounded in 2018-19, but is there a chance that he hits another bump in the road?
Dougie Hamilton had a tremendous second half of the season in 2018-19, but he struggled in the first half of the season and actually has a history of that.
The biggest thing about the departure of de Haan is that the top 4 must now all perform. The backstop behind them is not there to the same degree. Trevor van Riemsdyk is a proven veteran, so it is possible he could step up into a higher slot if needed, but I still think the blue line is much more of a risk factor than most believe.
Goaltending
To a certain degree, I just think goaltending is always a risk. But I think that is even more true for the 2019-20 Hurricanes. Lost in the second half surge and playoff run is the fact that Petr Mrazek really did not find his game until the midway point of the 2018-19 season. If Mrazek starts slowly like he did in 2018-19, the Hurricanes will need some help from another goalie to stay afloat. The team scores well in this regard in terms of volume of options, but really does not have a safe and sound backup. James Reimer has a good resume and experience but must rebound from a tough 2018-19 season. And Alex Nedeljkovic did all he could do at the AHL level to earn a shot in the NHL, but he is completely unproven. At a basic level, I like what the Hurricanes have for options in net, but at the same time I think those counting the goaltending as a sure thing are missing on the general history of the position and more directly the Hurricanes recent history.
Leadership (if Justin Williams does not return)
The biggest wild card still remaining is whether Justin Williams will return or not. I am on record as thinking the need for his leadership for one more season is underestimated. I think the challenge in 2019-20 will be the transition to being a team with expectations. If the team hits a bump in the road which it most certainly will over the course of a long 82-game season, it will face a different kind of pressure as a team with expectations that are not being met. I think helping the team push over this different hump is the last big ask from Williams short but powerful reign as the team’s leader. If Williams does not return, I think there is significant risk with the leadership of the team. Other players are capable of playing a leadership role, but I think Williams is at a higher level in terms of absorbing a ton of the pressure and also knowing how to force the team’s mentality to where it needs to be over the course of a meandering six-month NHL season.
What say you Canes fans?
1) What do you think of these three potential weak links for the 2019-20 Carolina Hurricanes?
2) Do you see additional potential weak links with the current Hurricanes roster?
Go Canes!
I’m not worried at all about defense or goaltending this year despite thinking there’s a decent chance both will see some rocky moments. Our depth throughout the team is a lot stronger. DeHaan hurts a bit, but Fleury deserves his shot and there are enough D in this system to find someone to work in the third pair if he can’t adapt. For the first time in a very long time we’re looking at a roster of players with NHL experience that is competitive without expecting miracles from AHLers or rookies.
It’s going to take a massive team slump to sink a season like we’ve seen in the past. RBA is seemingly a player’s coach, but not afraid to bench someone if they’re not performing. Williams not coming back and offering that liaison between the bench and the ice still seems like the difference between the 2018 Canes and the 2019 Canes from last season. Consistency is key for this system and it could be unstoppable if the team buys in and our depth of talent continues to grow/produce on schedule.
Matt, I believe you are correct in your analysis. I must say that you have hit the nail on the head about Willy. Neither Roddy nor the team will do well without him. With both Bales and Willy gone, it will be like losing both Ferland and Martinook in the playoffs.
I am still concerned about the loss of Ferland. Martinook might be able to fill the agitator role that Ferland played so well. We have acquired two men who can hit and fight. Maybe Saku can learn the agitator role too. I hope.
We still have a big hole on defense. A gaping hole. A huge chasm. It exists on the left side of the third pair. There is nobody to fill the skates of Calvin de Haan. Let alone giving us a big strong aggressive defense minded defenseman who is always in a very bad mood.
While the fancy stats fanalysts won’t like him, the grass roots fans, as well as our goalkeepers will love him instantly.
Also, too many goalies.
1) The D won’t be as strong. But it shouldn’t be a big concern. One of Bean, Fleury, Forsling, McKeown will rise to the occasion.
Goaltending should be the biggest concern. I think playing in front of a confident goaltender is like playing behind a good pitcher in that it takes pressure off everyone. In baseball it is called pitching around mistakes—one error doesn’t lead to a three-run inning. Something similar was obviously not happening with Darling in net (even in Charlotte). Think about the Washington game in December. The Canes were up 4-1, yet the entire team started to make mistakes after the second Washington goal and turned a sure two points into a last-minute heroics one point. The concern has to be that both Mrazek and Reimer have histories of struggling.
On the other hand, Ned seems to instill confidence in those playing in front of him—Charlotte was 88-1-1 the past two seasons when leading after two periods. Also, Ned is not “completely unproven.” His win in Vancouver in January should count for something. The Canes were 1-2-1 in the previous four games. The were heading into the all-star break, which had ruined seasons perviously (h.t. to tj). Another loss and the terrific February/March likely wouldn’t have mattered. Ned gave up two quick goals early in the second. Then the team and Ned played some of the best hockey of the year. It was only one game, but it provided some proof.
I am not really worried about leadership (NYI did fine after their captain departed). However, I am concerned if Williams signs elsewhere—that just doesn’t send a good message.
2) Randomness. After being on the wrong end of “breaks” in 16-17 and 17-18, things seemed to change in the Boston game on 12/23. After falling behind 2-0 the Canes scored without even shooting when a TT pass went off a defender. Then short-handed magic occurred and instead of being the middle of a 5-game losing streak, the Canes had some puck luck. It returned a couple more times early in January. Once helping the Canes finally get by NYI and then in a key game that started Buffalo’s descent from playoff contender to bottom dweller (if I remember correctly the Canes scored 3 goals due to what Forslund calls “pinball” action).
Finally, Brock McGinn made a great play to save game 7 in the first round of the playoffs. While it was great, he had to be EXACTLY where he was or the puck crosses the goal line before he can knock it away. So that play was mostly skill but involved enough puck luck that the season continued and became truly special.
I am merely saying that the Canes are not yet the Lightning or Capitals where they have superior talent that ensures the playoffs. That might happen this season if Svech makes significant progress and Necas has a season that puts him in the Calder conversation. Or the season could also see the Canes miss the playoffs if a few bounces and non-goalie saves go the wrong way.
1. CdH is a loss, but one of the storylines from last year was which D do we trade (because have 5 top-4) to bring in more offense. That answer last year was “none”. But CdH was the trade – cap space to sign Aho with the uncertainty of an offer sheet being extended to him and adding a middle-6 guy like Dzingel.
I think Faulk is less likely to slump – contract year.
And I am betting Dougie doesn’t break his finger again in October. 😀
We have short-term risk in the bottom pairing until TvR returns, but this should open the door for McKeown to show what he can do (and I think he will be impressive to the point that maybe TvR is tradeable??). And Bean will push Fleury for the 3-LHD spot.
Assuming that 3 goaltenders are going to fail is a reach. Mrazek has been consistently inconsistent in his career and there is no reason to suspect that will change. But when he is on he is on. Reimer is looking for the fresh start and he knows he has a chance to get big minutes – in fact, he can expect to do so. Without him, we would be over-relying on Ned’s ability to transition to the NHL game. Ned gets his time on ice this year though.
Staal still commands respect on the team and around the league. You have other winning guys in the locker room. Without JW there is a stepdown but I don’t think it is of the level that makes or breaks the season. If he doesn’t sign I really doubt the team would what wonder WWJ(W)D when the tough times roll. 😀
2. To me a risk factor is how ready will AHL players be under Warshofsky, and whether he can push their development like Vellucci did. It was frequently said how well the players were prepared under Vellucci, and in his role as AGM he was definitely their advocate.
Another risk factor is the goalie coach – Bailes was a true “goalie whisperer”. He could read them and made the right choice night after night who to have in net.
Another huge risk factor is the PP. As several writers here have said, we are very predictable when we need to be adaptive. It is not a personnel issue, it is a coaching issue. The uncertainty is whether that gets figured out.
I, of course, equated “possible weak links” to “risk factors”. 😀
Your last paragraph is very important IMO. We need to get away from old canned patterned power play modes. We need more creativity.
Very good writeup overall IMO.
Thank you, RR.
Your assessment regarding respect everyone has for Staal is why I think the captaincy is his if Willy decides to move onward.
Goal tending is virtually a weak link for every team in the league. Even the teams with perennial Vezina trophy candidates are in deep kimchee if an injury occurs. Right now, if Ned starts the season in Charlotte we have 3 good options on the depth chart. That’s as close to solid in goal as it can be for most of the teams in the NHL. In the salary cap era, the math doesn’t work for teams to carry 6 top four defenseman, (unless they have top 4s on ELCs). We will start the season with 5 top 4s and at least 3 realistically viable bottom six candidates. Many teams will envy our defense shortcomings. Leadership could be an issue IF JW does not return. To me, this hinges on RBA being a 2nd year coach capable of driving motivation with or without Justin Williams on the bench. Pre-season power rankings are beginning to appear in the press with the Canes in the top half. However, my playoff ticket money will start going into escrow in October with the fear it will be available for a winter vacation in February. Somethings don’t change easily.
Something that’s hard to measure and/or quantify that I worry about: will this team start the season with the same mojo that it found after Jan 1 last season and play with the same aggressive, physical, and high-pressure fore-checking style that led to all our success? Will we work as hard as we did last season? Will the message stick, especially if JW isn’t there?
I’m not saying it won’t – each player should realize how effective it was and what they must individually contribute. You just never know whether the team will take a collective breath.
We are as deep as ever with the most talent we’ve had in quite some time and more than last season. It’s going to come down to hard work and effort. Will it be there?
PS. The Athletic has a survey on fan’s confidence on our Front Office here: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSe9bmFvSJoNn9flXc4hNFOkSBhFr56MAhxS-oGasGUDz1dWmA/viewform
The road to the Cup likely passes through Washington/Boston. The Caps have added Gudas and Hathaway, two tough players. Canes now have a bulls-eye on their jerseys and are minus Ferland. We’ve added skill but lost grit and hitting (de Haan and Ferland combined for 370 hits – #2 and #3 on our team). We saw how the Blues wore down the Bruins with their physicality.
I agree with pwrlss that our biggest weakness may be team toughness.
blinkman. Physicality is hard to measure. If you use hits, Carolina had 4 players not named Ferland or de Haan who had more hits than the Blues player (Maroon) with the most hits in 18-19 (based on Hockey-Reference statistics).
Hockey-graphs tracks playoff hits every year and finds basically the same two things: 1) hitting does not increase in the postseason; 2) the team with more hits is no more likely to win a series. I do think playoff hockey is more physical in that there is more neutral zone trapping and use of sticks along the goal line. The Canes are above average at both of those.
All of the above comments and views are well taken and worth considering IMO. My input will be just limited to further expounding on one of the things brought out by several of the contributors that I feel is most important. That concern is whether Williams comes back and the effect on the team if he does not. In my opinion it is crucial that he be part of this year’s team. Between Williams, Staal, and Faulk we have as good leadership on the ice as any team in the league. Excellent on ice leadership is where everything good starts IMO. I watched San Jose (Thornton, another old geezer like JW and Pavelski), Boston (Chara, another old geezer and Bergeron), etc. and saw how those players led their teams to success with less depth than the Canes currently appear to have.
Just food for thought.
I am not concerned about goalies, the team is as deep in the goalie position as ever, maybe more than ever. I think we have an excess of one, in fact. Ward never lived up his billing as an elite goalie or worthy of his 6 mill salary, and neither do many goalies around the league. I think having more options is better.
The third d pairing is a potential weakness. Trading down from 5 to 4 proven top 4 D men means we’re taking risks. Risks are inevitable in this business and the team had to make a move at some point. I’m worried that the CDH will come back to bite us next year when Faulk is ready to cash in on his big contract, it looks like top 4 D men are going for insane prices this year and this might only get worse, CDH’s contract would start looking mighty affordable if the going rate is 7 or 8 mill for a top 4 D man.
Powerplay is a huge unknown and the biggest blemish on last season. There simply must be changes in the PP coaching and management. As I’ve said elsewhere, if the team’s PP is really bad the opponents will feel empowered to push the envelope and take liberties with our players, they know there will be no consequences, it might even be beneficial if the PP is effectively less effective than 5 on 5.
We have crucial seasons for key players coming up. CAn Aho shake off his lackluster end-of-season and playoff play and return to form?
Will Svech be able to take another step forward or will he fall victim to the dreaded sophomore slumpies?
Is Necas ready to kick some butt at the NHL level?
Can Fleury prove himself as an NHL defenseman?
Can we build a 4th line with the right level of compete, toughness and scoring (Fogele is key, I think saku might be good there too if he bruises and hits and nets a few goals to prove he belongs in the NHL).
Can Hala take on 2C duties (I think Jordan Staal is best utilized as a 3c).
It’s going to be a fun season, but it could go either way.
https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2019/08/hurricanes-notes-williams-van-riemsdyk-forsberg.html Interesting reading
From the article posted by surgalt:
1) Expect a decision by JW in the next week or two.
2) Expect TvR on ice in time for the start of the season (he’s already skating).
3) Expect the signing of a goalie coach very soon.