Today’s Daily Cup of Joe builds a bit off of yesterday’s article considering players at the AHL/NHL cut line and also pulls in a few other situations that might or might not see more roster changeover before the start of the 2019-20 season.
At a basic level, I think the Hurricanes (signing remaining restricted free agents should be fairly routine) could be set for the start of the 2019-20 season. That is to say that there are no pressing needs that must be met. But at the same time, I think there is still significant potential for the Hurricanes to do another deal or two mostly pruning at the bottom edge of the NHL roster.
Situations with potential for action include:
Justin Williams
The biggest open item right now is the status of Justin Williams. I am on record as believing that the need/value of another year of his leadership is underrated. With much greater expectations on the 2019-20 Hurricanes after a return to the playoffs and two series wins, I think the team could face a greater level and different type of pressure if it faces adversity from a slow start or downturn. At some point the team will need to transition to younger leadership, but I think one more year of Justin Williams would be a huge positive. It takes pressure off of other players, and it buys more time and tutelage for the younger leaders who could be next.
I do not have any inside information on the situation and the team’s comments have been fairly vague, but I think there is a decent chance that Williams has decided to return and has been waiting out the financials. He suggested at the end of the season that his decision would be partly based on the team’s prospects for the 2019-20 season. I think the team has done its part in that regard making some additions to at least back fill losses. In the process, the team needed to have and utilize available salary. Again, it is just my hunch, but I think part of the delay with Williams may have been his willingness to sign for ‘what is left’ giving the team maximum flexibility and resources to build a 2019-20 winner. With the Dzingel signing completed and minimal cost uncertainty remaining, I think if Williams is coming back it will be soon. The one open item that could have an impact is Brock McGinn’s next contract but even that should be in a fairly tight range.
Net: With the unknown wild card being his personal and family considerations, I think Williams will return and has maybe just been waiting for the financial math to settle out. With him, the team has made modest improvements and has playoff success and a young group to build on. I think at a hockey level at least that lures Williams back for one more year.
James Reimer and the goalie situation
With the addition of James Reimer in trade for Scott Darling, Don Waddell managed a great step-wise move in unloading Darling’s contract. The Hurricanes did have to take back a non-desirable contract in Reimer’s but unloading Darling without having to pay futures and/or eat a significant portion of his contract to do so was a win. At least in Reimer the Hurricanes have a player who can fill a role with the Hurricanes and/or might be tradeable at some point. So in and of itself, that is an upgrade to a tough situation.
But the other factor in play is that Alex Nedeljkovic had a strong 2018-19 season at the AHL level and seems ready for at least a try out at the NHL level. Reimer blocks that. In addition, Reimer costs $2.4 million more (actual salary not cap hit) for each of the next two years. In addition, Reimer is due $2.25 million in signing bonuses for the 2019-20 that present a financial risk in the event of a reasonably probable lockout.
If the Hurricanes did not have Nedeljkovic waiting in the wings, I think there would be a stronger case to just keep Reimer and at least give him a shot at rebounding to be a solid 1B goalie. But when one considers Nedeljkovic’s development and need to at least try out at the NHL level and the cost for Reimer, I think the team would prefer to trade Reimer. So I think he would definitely be available. But for the same reasons the Hurricanes might consider trading him (fairly high salary and fairly tough 2018-19 season), there might not be a market for him right now. So while I do think the preference would be to trade Reimer, I think the odds are greater than 50 percent that that does not happen before the start of the season.
Also on the topic of goalies, Forsberg figures to be fourth on the depth chart, but as long as his next contract is a two-way deal, I actually think the team would prefer to keep him. If he has an appropriate AHL salary, he represents a viable insurance policy with NHL experience sitting fourth on the depth chart for virtually no cost.
Net: I think the team is likely shopping Reimer now but that a deal is more likely during the season as team’s realize they need goaltending help and hopefully Reimer gets off to a decent start.
The logjam at the bottom of the blue line depth chart
At the point where Trevor van Riemsdyk returns from his shoulder injury (and assuming everyone else is healthy), the Hurricanes will have eight defensemen who are either certain NHLers or have to clear waivers to go back to the AHL. If one counts van Riemsdyk in the core five defensemen, that leaves Haydn Fleury, Gustav Forsling and Roland McKeown sitting in #6 to #8 slots and needing to clear waivers to go back to the AHL. Because of the age and potential upside for these players, I think all three would be a risk to clear waivers. Because of his physical tools, draft pedigree and NHL experience, I think Fleury would be claimed by a rebuilding team for certain. I also think Forsling’s experience would make him appealing to teams lacking #6/#7 depth. And though McKeown is unproven at the NHL level, I think there is a good chance that a team would take a chance on him to at least give him an NHL tryout. The situation is exacerbated by the fact that Jake Bean had a strong 2018-19 season as an AHL rookie such that the team likely wants to get him into the mix at the NHL level in 2019-20. So that makes nine players for only six or seven slots.
Because of that and the risk of losing a player or two for nothing via waivers, I would expect that the Hurricanes will consider trading a depth defenseman to clear the logjam and collect some type of futures instead of nothing. Van Riemsdyk’s time line could be a big factor. If he is out, the team can keep Fleury, Forsling and McKeown at the NHL level and send Bean to the AHL without risk of losing him. But at the point where van Riemsdyk reenters the mix, the team is up to eight defensemen at the NHL level.
Who goes could be partly a function of which player nets the fairest return and partly a function of what the team projects for upside for these players.
Net: At the point when van Riemsdyk returns or maybe when his time line becomes clearer, I think the Hurricanes will move one of Fleury, Forsling or McKeown to add futures instead of losing a player for nothing on waivers.
Other
I would be surprised to see the Hurricanes make any more moves past these situations related to the current group. One potentially open item is filling the physical void left by Micheal Ferland’s departure. In an ideal world, the summer’s additions would have included more of a physical element. But I think that is something that will need to be addressed by committee and not from another addition to the current group.
The team does also still have five restricted agents to re-sign. But four of those are AHL players who have minimal leverage/negotiating power and should be routine. Brock McGinn is a bit bigger of a situation but by filing for arbitration his re-signing is guaranteed just at an unknown cost.
Net: Though anything is possible, I would be quite surprised to see the Hurricanes make an NHL level deal outside of what I highlighted above.
Though I think the Reimer and blue line situations will be deferred, I think the team would move sooner if the opportunity presents itself. As such, either of these two moves could fall out of the sky anytime between now and the start of training camp.
What say you Canes fans?
1) What do you think of the possibility that Justin Williams is decided and just unselfishly waiting for the financials to settle? In general, do you think he returns?
2) Do you think the team is actively shopping James Reimer? Or do you think the Canes are content to at least start into the season with Reimer as a 1B with experience?
3) How do you think the team will proceed with the logjam at the bottom of the blue line? Might it risk sneaking a player through waivers at the end of training camp to try to maintain organizational depth? Or do you think the Canes will instead convert a defenseman to modest futures rather than risking losing one for nothing?
4) Does anyone think Waddell has one more ‘out of the blue’ deal still in him this summer?
Go Canes!
1. We need Justin IMO. Hopefully we can meet his salary needs withion what we have available to pay. Maybe he takes less dollars now with a guarantee of some position with the team when he hangs it up. No reason for me to believe this. Just wishful thinking.
2. I believe Reimer isn’t actively shopped. Behind our defense I think his performance would match his past good year performances statistically. The past couple of years he has played on teams with poor defense corps IMO.
3. Fleury starts the season unless traded (he is the most marketable IMO). Forsling is kept with McKeown traded with Bean to Charlotte.
4. No more deals planned IMO other than stuff around the edges maybe. Need to give Gautier and Necas some room as they present probably as good a chance at filling discovered holes than anyone we could get in a deal that wouldn’t seriously hurt us elsewhere like defense.
Justin Williams is a true leader. His outspoken disapproval of Bill Peters was shocking to me when he stated that he was disgusted with some people who believed that there was a shortcut to winning. I will likely never know all of why he said that, but I know enough about young men as well as team sports to appreciate the courage it took for him to sound off that way.
Watching him stand between Skinny and a ref, edging him away before the ref was abused enough to call Skinny for unsportsmanlike conduct, watching him talking to bullies about laying off one of our players, etc. never fails to impress.
Willy is now contemplating retirement. Is he serious? We all know that he has another season in him. Yet, I believe that he is unwilling to subject his body to the abuse bullies in the NHL will inflict if my beloved Canes don’t adequately replace Michael Ferland’s powerful deterrence. But he is also concerned about his teammates. The little Finns need protection.
Dzingel is a step in the right direction. But we need more.
It is foolhardy to invest millions in undersized young players while not protecting them.
Milan Lucic, Patrick Maroon, James Neal, Dion Phaneuf, and Darren Archibald come to mind. I am sure that Donny and Tom are working on it. I am sure that there are other enforcers available about whom I am unaware.
I doubt that Willy will sign until Donny and Tom bust a move. I don’t blame him. This will be a test of class for Donny and Tommy. Are they willing to defy the “heavy hockey is dead” stats worshippers? Are they willing to spend to the cap?
Or will they cave and sacrifice our lambs to the slaughter?
Time will tell.
A cheaper, younger, more reliable version of Lucic would be Zack Kassian. Perhaps a deal with Edmonton can be had for the 28 year old physically imposing winger.
Justin Williams will turn 38 when the season begins. He has played in !244 games. Were he to return it will be his 21st season in the NHL. Retirement is looming. Is there one more season on the tank, or has it been enough? A tough question for us, life defining for him. Retirement for athletes is not like ours. We work until we are old and play after. Athletes play while they are young and have to figure out what their work will be while they are old. He has seen first hand many players who went out on top with the Cup in hand. He has seen more who played one season too many. This would be his 3rd year as a Cane, one coached by Peters, one partnered with Brindy. Likely his heart says take another kick at the can, his head says time to move on. What is his body telling him?
For me the surprise wouldn’t be an “out of the blue deal” from “the committee”. The surprise would be if one did not occur. There are 74 days until October 1st. Seems impossible this roster won’t be noticeably different given all that tinkering time.
1. I have long thought that JW returns for one more season, if only under the mantra of “unfinished” business. I have no idea what is motivating his delay in signing and don’t want to speculate. I do think that a Williams at reduced capacity from last season is a drag on the team and he was showing his age last year. I have wondered if he really is planning to retire before the start of the season.
2, 3, 4. I am with surgalt in thinking that a deal will happen of some sort; it may not be a blockbuster deal but I don’t think this is the lineup we start the season with. I don’t know if it is Reimer or some blueliners or what. But Waddell has shown himself to be a dealmaker and he will continue to “dabble” as he recently said. What that “dabbling” will lead to, time will tell.
1) My take is different. My hunch is that Williams has always intended to return—but he is being asked to take a significant pay cut. As others mentioned, he is strong minded/outspoken. I think he knows he is worth more than he is being offered and is not happy that his decision to raise his family in the area is being used to squeeze him. My prediction is he ends up in Colorado—another team that needs leadership, secondary scoring, and a right shot.
2) Yes. The other NHL-ready acquisitions (Haula and Dzingel) have numbers.
3) I think they seek a deal. If none is available, they risk losing McKeown.
4) No—I expect any moves to be for futures.
The cap ceiling (sure feels weird saying that) is the constraint on the salary offered to JW not the perceived attempt to get a big “home town” discount. JW could be compensated in other ways after next season. He could be offered a cushy scouting job in the destination of his choice. I can also see him in the Rockies. I’m recommending the scouting responsibilities in Aspen, Co., all expenses paid. He could work from home scheduling trips to overlap with school vacations. Or, as an assistant coach to RBA, if he wants to see if coaching would be a desirable next vocation. JW is not only considering a fast approaching inevitable retirement, but even more importantly the trajectory for his families future and the rest of his life.
In coaching I see JW as a player development – the same first rung of coaching that RBA started on. I don’t see him as an assistant coach to start off.
I agree with you he is facing imminent retirement (I, unfortunately, still have a few years to go! LOL!).
And I agree with you on the cap constraint. If we are down to $2M in cap space (just a guess number – CapFriendly has us at $4.6M right now) would JW really be that “unselfish” to accept it? Or we would need to shed cap space to sign him? Or it is more likely he looks for a few extra million on another team that may be better equipped to win the cup? COL comes to mind, but even BOS and STL have the roster spot and the cap space to offer him $5M and not blink.
I find it interesting that we have the lowest number of contracts of any team in the NHL – only 36 of a maximum of 50. How are we going to fill the roster in CLT??
While they count towards the total of 50 permitted, salaries paid at the AHL level are not counted against the cap, even though they are 2 way deals. Only the days that a player is “called up” is the NHL salary paid adding to the amount spent towards the cap.
I think a fascinating aspect of prospect development is considering different ways to deploy those assets and when.
Especially once you get past the first or second round, a low percentage of prospects will ever see the NHL. And the majority of those will be depth players who are not difference-makers and could be fairly easily replaced. While there is value in having capable depth available, the bigger wins are developing a handful of top half of the roster players.
In this regard, I think an interesting inflection point is prospects who are a bit older (23-24) who are fairly deep into their development. From that point, can a team with reasonably accuracy project a player’s ceiling? If so, I think that could be a good time to ‘harvest’ assets and convert them to more futures if a player is assessed as depth/replaceable level only.
I think that is part of what happened with Nicolas Roy. I do think he could be a regular NHLer, but I just do not see his ceiling as higher than a decent third-line center. As such, he would mostly meet my description of ‘replaceable’ and I actually think he slots about where Wallmark does anyway. But before he has seen much NHL action and still has at least potential upside is maybe a good time to collect value.
Getting back to this article, I think Roland McKeown is interesting in that regard. He is at that older prospect age but without much NHL experience to define how good he can be. The evaluation process is imperfect but the Hurricanes should have as good of a read on him as anyone. If the team sees his ceiling as a #6 type defenseman (again replaceable), is now a good time to collect value if in the form of a draft pick and add another chance to gain a difference-maker down the road?
Would love to know what different teams including the Hurricanes have in place for a general strategy for if/how/when to make calls on prospects and what value they place on ‘he can be decent depth’ versus ‘we can get another chance at a difference-maker’ instead.
McKeown is an example of why there are waivers – so good players don’t get trapped in an organization’s farm system. He was considered a top D prospect when he was with LAK and he has been in our organization a long time without getting a decent shot on NHL ice. Last year it was because of the backlog on the right side – and I really don’t think RBA has a high trust level in the prospect pool. McKeown shows all indication he will be a solid 3rd pairing D on the NHL but because he has never gotten the shot there is no way to truly assess his potential and be able to make the call you describe.
While I think that these are the obvious open items, I would not be surprised to see something different happen, especially if Justin Williams doesn’t come back. GMDW has proven not to be afraid of making more significant trades and I think he would pull the trigger on another one if he felt it improved the team even when it appears that the roster is mostly defined.
As for Justin Williams, I would love to see him back for another year and we would miss his leadership – we would also miss his production, which did not tail off last year even if his speed did. He would add toughness, finishing, and leadership and we still need all three.
Having said that, if he doesn’t come back, management has not been afraid to roll the dice and the most interesting opportunity out there for scoring is with Vegas and Gusev. He could replace JW’s production – maybe even exceed it – at the same general price-point, and we could get him in a trade for relatively little. That intrigues me. I’m also still intrigued by Puljujärvi and maybe we can get him for some of our surplus defense which EDM desperately needs.
What’s interesting to me is how deep our roster is with proven NHL talent. There really aren’t that many true “open” slots. On offense, there are two open slots: one seems to be Necas’ to lose; and I believe the other is Saku’s to lose it if he re-signs because he brings more of the Ferland factor than anyone else and he was very effective in his role during playoffs. We haven’t had this amount of quality offensive depth in quite some time.
On defense, we are certainly going to lose someone to a waiver claim unless a trade happens first.
I do not think GMDW is done tinkering.
After reading all of the above…I’m more confused, and less sure of what ought to be done, and EVEN WHAT WILL BE DONE!
I lean towards Willy staying, Reimer staying, McKeown starting the year in the NHL, BUT…I won’t be surprised if I’m totally wrong!
There’s still a lot of moving parts, situations…??
I tend to believe that doing nothing, would be the worst thing, because of the very likelihood of losing DEPTH-Big time!
I’m hoping that a trade or three will move out depth and bring in a significant player (or two)!
Thinking of Willie coming back and the importance of his leadership. My first thought is that his leadership is definitely needed and essential. Then I thought, well, if it’s just one year, then we will have that leadership void problem next year… but, that is OK because our future leaders will have one more year of JW’s experience and that will help…..
but then, I think…. well maybe that is not a good thing…. maybe it makes JW’s leadership be a crutch that gets leaned on a little too much… maybe it keeps the future leaders from getting the experience they need to learn to lead…. maybe it makes the JW leadership style be too ingrained in the culture and makes it harder for a new leader to come in and exert their own style…. maybe it makes it harder for the room to accept the new leader…
So, just a little outside thinking….. and yes, I am often paralyzed into indecision because of my “little outside” thinking 🙂
I don’t see Williams returning to Carolina. Great person and presence, and he emptied the tank last year…but let’s face it, his speed is waning and I don’t think the team is willing to spend high on him. Realistically he doesn’t really fit our 3rd line mold. As hard as this is to say, it’s time to move on. It’s time for others to take the reigns and be “clutch”.
I think Mrazek and Ned are both viewed as 1A types, whereas Reimer is a constant 1B. So essentially Ned I think is Mrazek’s replacement. Reimer is a 1B to start the year, and as soon as one goalie struggles or gets injured, gotta give Ned the 1A and see what he’s got. I would hold onto Forsberg if we can for depth.
Donnie definitely has another trade up his sleeve (or two). I think it may involve players most are not considering, such as TVR and/or Wallmark. A package of NHLers (maybe toss in a goalie) just may get us the bottom-6 physical forward we all crave while keeping the young defenders. I think McKweon/Fleury could be a solid 3rd pair and/or Forsling as 7D.
The Rangers have 7+ million in cap, with 21 roster spots filled (they need 23) and 41 out of 50 contracts signed. We are much closer to the edge than NYR going into next season.
Your trade concept is interesting – I don’t think DW is finished but I don’t want to guess what he will do or wants to do. But we are going to have a boatload of cap space available for the 2020/21 season – one has to look forward to that.
And your comments oJW are certainly reasomable.
Nice “outside the box” post.
But they have yet to sign Jacob Trouba, Pavel Buchnevich, Lemieux and DeAngelo.
Trouba is probably not going to accept much less than 7 to 8 mill and Buchnevich probably won’t accept a sub 4 mill contract.
I wouldn’t be surprised if JW is done as a player in Carolina. I hope he’ll be hired on as an assistant coach or development coach.
I think this year should be considered a bit of a remolding year, not necessarily rebuild but kind of a transition year. I hope the team can execute successfully and go all in for victory in 20/21 (lockout permitting). Not giving up hopes for this coming year, just realizing the team will be experimenting with new chemistry and new faces.
It’s weird that the ceiling is actually something to consider, but there are teams like the Rangers that are in absolute cap hell, we might even be able to pick up someone like Kreider from them.
I’m still primarily hoping the golden Gusev can be acquired. I think svech can do with a Russian countrymen on the team.
One thing more, this team is going to be really good! In no way can you tell me that we revert back to mediocre! So, it becomes more about whether we keep a really good player…OR AQUIRE A GREAT ONE!
Can’t wait to see the pre-season games!
It’s ironic that the Marleau assistance to Tor seems to be actually hampering the team’s ability to fill the roster.
I have to say it was the most perplexing deal of the offseason for me (not in a good way).
I’d rather have singed JW for that money, a late first round pick isn’t worth that amount.