Mailbag: How the Canes transformed their prospect pool

by | Jan 19, 2016 | The Pipeline

It was time to turn things over to readers this week and answer your questions. It’s important to remember I am not a scout and have not see all the prospects play this season. I am limited in my personal evaluations and rely heavily on scouting guides and other scouts analysis.

With that said, I’ll take my best shot with these submitted questions:

He currently projects as a third line center, similar to Victor Rask’s early projections. Unlike Rask, I think the third line will be his ceiling. I don’t think he’s suited for limited minutes as a 4C. That’s one reason I feel he and the Hurricanes organization elected to have him remain in Sweden this season.

Fellow countryman Erik Karlsson has played limited minutes in his first season in North America in the AHL, with 4 points in 27 games. Meanwhile Wallmark has 24 points in the Swedish League and has represented his country in International events. Whether either is indicative of an individual’s long-term success remains to be seen.

I don’t expect Wallmark to put up big numbers, but can see him as an every situation player, similar to Riley Nash early last season.

 

It’s a tough call projecting Lorentz. He seems to be a classic late bloomer. Like Wallmark, he was passed over in his 18 year-old draft year. He was never a huge point producer in Midget hockey, and became a full-time OHL player at age 17. Yet, He doubled his point production in his second season, finishing 5th on Peterborough in scoring.

I’m hoping he was a victim of a deep Petes’ team. Lorentz was projected as a bottom six grinder by Hockey’s Future and Scouting reports for the 2014 draft. I think he’s capable for playing second line wing, but more likely a third line on a deeper team. With increased ice time on a rebuilding OHL club he’s already set a career high in points in 43 games. He’s a big forward with decent skating who can join the AHL next year.

It’ll be interesting to see if he can blossom like Phil Di Giuseppe once he’s working with the Canes coaching staff full-time.

 

Early guess would be two of Tyler Ganly, Josh Wesley, or Kyle Jenkins — provided both Wesley and Jenkins are signed and do not re-enter the draft in June. They’re at the bottom of the depth chart at the moment.

Let’s ignore the trade deadline for a brief moment: The Hurricanes have rights to 15 defensemen (10 signed, 5 RFA) before any prospects I cover enter the picture. The NHL team is likely to carry seven defenders again, leaving eight others for the Checkers. There will be a number of roster decisions to be made with the Checkers as players like Rasmus Rissanen who is over the 260 professional game limit that designates them as veterans. AHL clubs are limited to dressing 5 skater at or above that limit each game. Guessing from Ron Francis’ past decisions, he’ll resign Rissanen and Michal Jordan who may both be in Charlotte next season.

After those decisions, I expect Haydn Fleury and Roland McKeown to be full-time Checkers next year. Add Carrick, Lowe and Biega to that discussion there is only one more spot on Charlotte’s back end.

 

The turn around really began when Ron Francis was hired as Director of Hockey Operations in June 2011. He worked as an assistant coach and Director of Player Personnel, which focuses more on pro rosters. Once he moved off the bench and could focus on scouting, the organization was able to fill the Canes roster more via trade.

Combine that with the Team’s best draft in 2010 (Skinner, Faulk), the big club didn’t rely on first round picks immediately playing for the Hurricanes (Lindholm, Hanifin aside). Now, the Checkers could slowly become a better development team.

Struggling in the 2008 and 2009 drafts set the organization back and is the key reason, in my mind, for the long playoff drought. There was no one in the system to fill in for the loss of key players like Dennis Seidenberg from the 2009 playoff team. Then holes forced players like Jamie McBain, Drayson Bowman, Zac Dalpe, & Zach Boychuk on the NHL team before they were fully developed.

 

I think he may have a cup of coffee (short call-up) toward the end of next season, but think he could fight for a spot in 2018. I have no problem with Sergei playing three full AHL season. Remember, the organization typically has players rights for seven years when they sign 3-year Entry-Level contracts. There is no reason he needs to be in the NHL by year two or three.

He’ll be best served to find chemistry with 3-4 other players in Charlotte and all graduate to the NHL at the same time. This is the recipe for success Tampa Bay used in recent history: build Championship AHL team and have those players succeed in the NHL together.

 

Roy should return to the QMJHL for his final Major Junior season in 2016-17. In that time I hope he can push his offensive game that leads him to be a second line center. He has the defensive side of his game and that should translate when he turns pro. He currently projects as a 3C on a three-line team, but he has more untapped potential. With a season or two in Charlotte, he could become a similar player to Patrice Bergeron under the right circumstances: great two-way, right handed center out of the QMJHL.

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Look for the next mailbag after the February 29 NHL Trade Deadline.

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Prospect reports for Jan. 12, 2015 – Jan 18, 2016

2015 Draft Picks:

Sebastian Aho, 2nd Round (#35 overall)

  • Last week: 2GP – 0G-0A-0PTS, 0 PIM, 7 SOG, 0.0% shooting (Liiga), 1GP – 0G-1A-1PT, 0 PIM, 0 SOG, 0.0% shooting (CHL)
  • Kärpät lost it’s two Liiga games in OT/SO after winning in the first leg of it’s CHL semi-final series.
  • This Season: 29GP – 11G-12A-23PTS, 2 PIM, 72 SOG, 15.2% shooting (Liiga)
    9GP – 3G-5A-8PTS, 6 PIM, 16 SOG, 18.7% shooting (CHL), 7GP – 4AG-8A-12PTS, 4 PIM, 16 SOG, 31.2% shooting (WJHC)
  • Next Game: Tuesday, January 19, 2016 vs Lukko Rauma (CHL Semi-Final), Friday, January 22, 2016 vs. KalPa Kuopio (Liiga)

Callum Booth, 4th Round (#93 overall)

  • Last Week: 2GP (2 Starts) – 0W-2L, .895%, 2.83GAA
  • This Season: 28GP (28 Starts) – 14W-11L-2OTL, .900%, 3.08 GAA, 2 SO
  • Next Game: Thursday, January 21, 2016 vs. Shawinigan, Cataractes

Nicolas Roy, 4th Round (#96 overall)

  • Last Week: 3GP – 3G-3A-6PTS, 2 PIM, 16 SOG, 18.7% shooting, 64.9% Faceoffs
  • Chicoutimi Seguenees went 1-2 with Roy recording 4 points in the lone victory against Victoriaville.
  • This Season: 39GP – 27G-26A-53PTS, 51 PIM, 150 shots, 18.0% shooting, 61.4% Faceoffs
  • Next Game: Wednesday, Janurary 20, 2016 vs. Baie-Comeau, Drakkar

Spencer Smallman, 5th Round (#138 overall)

  • Last Week: 2GP – 2G-2A-4PTS, 2 PIM, 5 SOG, 40.0% shooting
  • Saint John Sea Dogs went 2-0 with Smallman recording points in both games.
  • This Season: 37GP – 10G-17A-27PTS, 45 PIM, 82 SOG, 12.2% shooting
  • Next Game: Thursday, January 21, 2016 at Charlottetown, Islanders

Luke Stevens, 5th Round (#126 overall)

  • Last Week: 2GP – 1G-3A-4TPS
  • This Season: 14GP – 10G-15A-25PTS
  • Next Game: Wednesday, January 20, 2016 at St. Paul’s HS

David Cotton, 6th Round (#169 overall)

  • This Two Weeks: 2GP – 0G-1A-1PT, 0 PIM, 4 SOG, 0.0% shooting
  • Waterloo Black Hawks went 1-1, 0-1 when Cotton recorded a point.
  • This Season: 30GP – 10G-11A-21PTS, 8 PIM, 72 shots, 13.8% shooting
  • Next Game: Friday, January 22, 2016 at Fargo Force

Steven Lorentz, 7th Round (#186 overall)

  • Last Week: 3GP – 2G-1A-3PTS, 2 PIM, 5 SOG, 40.0% shooting
  • Peterborough Petes went 2-1, 2-0 when Lorentz recorded points.
  • This Season: 44GP – 19G-20A-39PTS, 22 PIM, 111 SOG, 17.1% shooting
  • Next Game: Thursday, January 21, 2016 vs. Saginaw Spirit

2014 Draft Picks:

Haydn Fleury, 1st Round (#7 overall)

  • Last Week: 3GP – 0G-0A-0PTS, 0 PIM
  • Red Deer Rebels went 1-2.
  • This Season: 31GP – 8G-17A-25PTS, 29PIM (WHL)
  • Next Game: Wednesday, January 20, 2016 vs. Moose Jaw Warriors

Alex Nedeljkovic, 2nd Round (#37 overall)

  • Last Two Week: 2GP (2 Starts) – 1W-0L-0OTL-1SOL, 0.96 GAA, .969%
  • This Season: 7GP (7 Starts) – 4W-1L-0OTL-1SOL, 1.41 GAA, .949% (NIA)
    19GP (19 Starts) – 9W-7L-1OTL-1SOL, 3.21 GAA, .907%, 1 SO (Flint)
    26GP (26 starts) 14W-8L-1OTL-2SOL, 2.71 GAA, .917% (OHL Totals), 6GP (6 Starts) – 4W-2L, 1.66 GAA, .942%, 1 SO (WJHC)
  • Next Game: Thursday, January 21, 2016 vs. Owen Sound Attack

Roland McKeown, 2nd Round (#50 overall)

  • Last Week: 3GP – 0G-0A-0PTS, 2 PIM, 5 SOG, 0.0% shooting
  • Kingston Frontenacs went 2-1.
  • This Season: 33GP – 6G-23A-29PTS, 33 PIM, 94 shots, 6.3% shooting
  • Next Game: Friday, January 22, 2016 vs. Saginaw Spirit

Warren Foegele, 3rd Round (#67 overall)

  • Last Week: 3GP – 2G-2A-4PTS, 0 PIM, 11 SOG, 18.1% shooting
  • Kingston Frontenacs went 2-1, 1-1 when Foegele recorded a point.
  • This Season: 29GP – 7G-23A-30PTS, 28 PIM, 59 shot, 11.8% shooting (OHL)
    5GP – 0G-1A-1PT, 6 PIM, 8 shots, 0% shooting (NCAA)
  • Next Game: Friday, January 22, 2016 vs. Saginaw Spirit

Josh Wesley, 4th Round (#96 overall)

  • Last Week: 2GP – 1G-0A-1PT, 2 PIM, 3 SOG, 33.3% shooting
  • Niagara IceDogs went 1-0-0-1, 1-0 when Wesley recorded a point.
  • This Season: 14GP – 3G-2A-5PTS, 6 PIM, 21 shots, 14.2% shooting (NIA)
    24GP – 2G-10A-12PTS, 21PIM, 42 Shots, 4.7% shooting (Flint)
    38GP – 5G-12A-17PTS, 27 PIM, 63 shots, 7.9% shooting (OHL Total)
  • Next Game: Friday, January 15, 2015 at Ottawa 67’s

Lucas Wallmark, 4th Round (#97 overall)

  • Last Week: 2GP – 2G-0A-2PTS, 0 PIM (SHL)
  • This Season: 30GP – 6G-18A-24PTS, 10 PIM (SHL), 5GP – 0G-0A-0PTS, 4 PIM (CHL), 3GP – 1G-0A-1PT, 2 PIM (Team Sweden / Channel One Cup)
  • Next Game: Thursday, January 21, 2016 at Karlskrona HK

Clark Bishop, 5th Round (#127 overall)

  • Last Week: 2GP – 1G-1A-2PTS, 2PIM, 3SOG, 33.3% shooting, 62.3% faceoffs
  • Bishop returned for his first games of the new year after missing Cape Breton’s last four.
  • Cape Breton Screaming Eagles went 2-0, with Bishop recoding a point in both games.
  • This Season: 30GP – 12G-16A-28PTS, 58 PIM, 66 shots, 18.2% shooting, 52.7% faceoffs
  • Next Game: Tuesday, January 19, 2016 vs. Moncton, Wildcats

Kyle Jenkins, 7th Round (#187 overall)

  • Last Week: 3GP – 0G-2A-2PTS, 0 PIM, 3 shots, 0.0% shooting.
  • Peterborough Petes went 2-1, 1-0 when Jenkins recorded a point.
  • This Season: 38GP – 2G-19A-21TS, 18 PIM, 86 shots, 2.3% shooting
  • Next Game: Thursday, January 21, 2016 vs. Saginaw Spirit

No 2013 Draft Picks

2012 Draft Picks:

Collin Olson, 6th Round (#159 overall)

  • This Season: 9GP (7 start) – 2W-5L, 4.15 GAA, .877%
  • Next Game: Friday, January 22, 2016 at St. Cloud State Univ.

Brendan Collier, 7th Round (#189 overall)

  • Last Week: 2GP – 0G-2A-2PTS, 0 PIM, 0 SOG, 0.0% shooting
  • Northeastern went 2-0 last week, with Collier collecting both points in one game.
  • This Season: 22GP – 3G-6A-9PTS, 8PIM, 14 SOG, 21.4% shooting
  • Next Game: Friday, January 22, 2016 at Merrimack College

2011 Draft Picks:

Grégory Hofmann, 4th Round (#103 overall)

  • This Season: 35GP – 12G-10A-22PTS, 43 PIM

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