For the second time since the All-Star break, the Hurricanes took to home ice in a winnable game against a team below them in the standings. And for the second time since the All-Star break the Hurricanes emerged with a win.
With “results matter” growing in importance above all else, the perfect two for two is phenomenal. And with the Flyers losing to the Devils, the Hurricanes tied for the eighth and final Eastern Conference playoff spot with the Flyers and that is straight up since both teams have played the same 51 games.
And that Caniac Nation is a good place to be in early February.
As for the game itself, it very much reminded me of the Senators win on Tuesday. The first period was reasonably well played both ways without a ton of gifted grade A chances in either direction. The 7-7 shots on goal tie and 0-0 score were not far off in measuring a first period that saw both teams playing a more conservative after the loose and wild 6-5 affair last week in Montreal. The Hurricanes blue line was sound defending off the rush and marking men in their own end. Whereas goalie Cam Ward did need to make a few stellar saves early in Tuesday’s game, Thursday was more about just needing to be sound and rarely spectacular.
As the game wore on, the Hurricanes gained a possession advantage from a 79% winning percentage in the face-off circle and reasonable ability to advance and keep the puck. But despite playing with the puck more, the Hurricanes really did not gain a sizable advantage in terms of grade A scoring chances. Brock McGinn was in alone on Carey Price twice before finishing late on Justin Williams’ heady centering pass. And along the way Brett Pesce notched his first goal of the season a shot through a screen after earlier half-whiffing on a better chance stepping in to receive a pass inside the top of the face-off circle. The goal early in the second period was perhaps a deserved reward from the hockey gods.
The third period was more of the same without a ton of great opportunities either way. A Justin Faulk break down created arguably Montreal’s best scoring chance late, and Ward continued to play an assertive and confident game. When Justin Williams found Brock McGinn with a centering pass from behind the net, the game was suddenly in hand with a two-goal lead and less than five minutes remaining. The Hurricanes salted away the win with a conservative power play effort up two goals with only 2:31 remaining.
Notes from the Carolina Hurricanes 2-0 win over the Montreal Canadiens
1) Cam Ward
Ironically, this shutout was somewhat similar to his other 2017-18 shutout against the Pittsburgh Penguins in that the story of the game was at least equally how air tight the defense was in front of him. But that said, the Hurricanes did not collect their second goal until inside of five minutes remaining, so through 55 minutes of hockey the game offered no margin for error. On this night, Ward did not need any.
2) Solid effort from the defense
As noted above, this game ranks right up there with the 4-0 win over the Penguins in terms of just playing the kind of solid game defensively that the Caniac Nation has been envisioning for a few years now. As noted above, Faulk was beaten once for a path to the net, but I honestly struggle to remember another true break down of significance. All six of the defensemen receive high marks on the night, but the player who stood out to me was Haydn Fleury who had a 3-4 really good defensive plays interrupting passing lanes that could have led to good scoring chances.
3) Brett Pesce
Good for Brett Pesce getting on the score sheet with his first goal and also onto the ice as one of the game’s three stars. The good version of his game is that of a steady, unsung hero, so it is nice to see him get an occasional turn with more recognition.
4) Brock McGinn
He was arguably the Hurricanes’ most dangerous player offensively. He was in alone on Price at even strength and then again shorthanded before finishing late by filling the front of the net to receive a pretty Williams’ backhand pass in front.
5) Balance on the blue line
For the second consecutive game, the ice team was really balanced on the blue line. The current trend is toward having three nearly equal pairings and coaches Peters and Smith allocating ice time more based on preferred match ups or simply which pair seems to be going best that night. Pesce was the only defenseman above 20 minutes with 21:04 of ice time. Fleury was the lowest still with 17:18 of ice time. The balance bodes well for playing the second half of the back-to-back on Friday and more generally for the busy schedule that lies ahead.
6) Jordan Staal
I thought he played the quiet version of his top-end game. He did not muster a ton offensively, but he played his big and mobile brand of hockey that just seems to take away space to do anything when he is on the ice.
7) Max Pacioretty
I am on record (repeatedly) as thinking he is the guy for Francis to make his first big ‘win now’ trade and push this team over the top. Is it confirmed that he did in fact board the Montreal team bus to head to the airport? 🙂
Next up is a quick turnaround with another home match up against Detroit on Friday and a chance to capitalize on three straight home games against sub-.500 teams with a 3-0 mark.
Go Canes!
I checked in about 20-25 games ago and I thought now would be another good time to comment on a game thread. Matt, great analysis of tonight’s game and here is me and you both hoping Pacioretty is Francis first big trade splash – he would be such a perfect fit for the team (Aside from some magical elite 1st line center).
Otherwise i’m glad to see the Canes pick up points in consecutive games after losing a pair but overall this is a team stuck on the definition of the bubble. The last time I commented there was optimism abound (it was during one of the TSA lines scoring streaks) about this being a playoff team but as time wears on there are two very clear issues:
1. Scoring
2. Goaltending in the long run.
First it is pretty clear that the Canes are not a great offensive team despite loads of potential. They are either a few years away from internally being a good offensive team (with Aho and Necas being the prime candidates to become difference makers) or they are outside acquisitions away. I have believed since the beginning of the season they were still 1 top 6/9 player away from being a playoff team and at least 2 top threats away from being a legit contender and I still think that is true. McGinn has really shown his worth in the top 9 but with that said I believe improving on Victor Rask, Brock Mcginn (pushing him to 4th line) and Derek Ryan’s spots in the top 9 are essential to the Canes becoming better. With that said, I trust Francis and his patience to not settle for a marginal upgrade or gamble to replace any of those guys but to wait until he finds a surefire upgrade. It’s nothing against those guys, Ryan and Mcginn have especially proven to me they are everyday NHL players this season. Rask unfortunately has probably lost all his trade value since two years ago, so I don’t see him being a key piece in a trade to significantly improve the forwards.
I’m really glad Cam has been playing solid this season but if history has taught me one thing it is that Cam Ward is a starting calibre goalie for stretches and over the course of a starting workload his numbers tend to show he is a below average starter. So with that said I think everyone at the start of the season understood the importance of having TWO goalies and unfortunately if the Canes are forced to ride Cam from this point on until the end of the season we are going to eventually see the return of leaky Cam and the playoff hopes will be dashed along with it. So at some point they’ll need Darling, or we all have to pray this season is an extreme outlier for Cam and he can start 55+ games and be a top 15 goalie. If Darling is broken, then we just have to pray.
Having those two variables at play as problems moving forward I would say makes the playoffs look less likely. I don’t feel like speculating on the goalies because the goaltending picture is set for the season, but what do people think about the offense moving forward? I’m with Matt on wanting Pacioretty, my concern is that he is going to cost 1 – 2 roster players and possibly one of the dmen. The only roster players I’d be comfortable subtracting to add at the moment are Fleury and Rask, I feel like subtracting any of the others would just create a hole that would instantly need to be plugged.
My guess is there is as close to unanimity as we are going to see at Canes and Coffee–Pacioretty would be a great add. The place where I think we part ways is who should be traded.
I am not as comfortable as fifty would be with trading Fleury. As Matt mentioned last month, Fleury might be the key to our D–he and Faulk have played well together. While it is only two games, Fleury has been the equal of our other defense-first D-man (Pesce and Slavin) against Ottawa and Montreal. Not saying I wouldn’t trade him for Pacioretty, just that I wouldn’t be comfortable. In addition to Fleury’s upside, I am not sure Dahlbeck, who admittedly has played well lately when asked, can maintain the needed level for the 30-game push into the playoffs.
One of my earliest comments on this site argued that folks undervalue Cam Ward. I know his save % has not been league average for many years, but deeper analysis (if you don’t believe me please see the article/chart “Standardized Goals Against” at hockeyviz) indicate that he is a good (not great) goalie. The specific analysis at hockeyviz is as objective as possible–in other words the author has absolutely no concern with having an opinion about Ward, the data do all the work. So this season is only an extreme outlier in that Carolina has been playing better in front of Cam. If that continues, he will do fine. That being said, I hope Darling starts tonight. In fact, I hope he starts Sunday if he wins tonight. Cam plays his best with several days rest–even if the team splits the next two games, a regulation win against the Flyers would be huge. So I think Darling getting two starts followed by a well-rested Ward makes sense.
February is going to be fun and exhausting. Between all the home games and the trade deadline, the Canes will be a different team by the end of the month. I believe what will be different is that the team will sit atop the wild card standings.
Ctcaniac and I are of a similar mind on this issue. Yes, who wouldn’t love to get Patches? He’s awesome. And if it costs a decent but not overpowering package of prospects and picks, I’m all in. Where I’m out is simple. This is a seller’s market, and if Bergevin successfully starts a bidding war for Pacioretty, there’s only so high I’m willing to go. If we start getting into Duchene price territory….have fun in St. Louis patches. Prospect and a pick? Welcome to Carolina.
I also think the comments about Cam are valid if you think about the system that we play. Since there are so few shots against, my favorite stat of Save Pct, will not tend to view our goalies favorably. Cam has been on point the last couple of games though. Which, I agree with ctcaniac yet again, let’s make sure he stays rested and give Darling a go tonight.
I am not on the Pacioretty bandwagon for reasons previously stated – Bergevin is not going to give their captain away for p-and-p. They apparently want top-end forward in exchange. So let’s not give it further thought.
I think the only real trade chips we have are Rask, Faulk and Darling. I would not touch any of the other D. They are young and still promising development. Not what you want to loose. You loose a D, gain some scoring and now have a hole to fill. I would rather get a UFA at the end of the season. Skinner has been on some peoples list. He is still pretty dynamic and other teams have to be on the lookout when he is on the ice. Plus/minus is not so good but I still value his role, so he is not on my trade list. There are other 4th/3rd line guys but that does not make a trade. GMs want to get equal or better value.
You mostly have to look at players who will be UFAs at the end of the year. GMs will move those but players who still have contract will require equal value in return.
Yes, I would love Patch, but agree with Raleigh, it will probably cost too much.
icecobra, I vehemently disagree in that Darling is not a trade chip. He is playing terrible right now and sell low-buy high is not a path to hockey success. He’ll pick it up eventually. He’s not a bad goalie. But to puckgod, you’re right… Our leading scorer this year totally didn’t come from a trade.
And we’re not sitting tied for a playoff spot right now. under-performing GM…
I am a big believer in the “Hockey Trade” ie. Trading from strength to a team with a different strength. Most fans tend to overvalue their teams’s players, but when both teams’ fans are unhappy…then you likely have a good/ fair trade!
That said…players can be much better under some systems, than others. Good GM’s can exploit acquiring under-performing players!!
…now this team has an under-performing GM…who literally won’t try to improve the team in any trades!