I entered the first of three games on a tough road trip with some reservations about the quality of the Hurricanes past few wins, gaps in their game and the repeatability of the early success.
Recap for the Hurricanes 5-4 overtime win over the Wild
More than anything, Saturday’s crazy 5-4 over the Minnesota Wild reinforced the fact that there are any number of formulas for wins in the NHL and that simple can do attitude and determination count significantly too.
And though in some ways the win was as imperfect as the previous wins that I questioned, the team still earned a sizable plus in addressing my pre-road trip questions.
Through two plus periods, the game was very simply a tale of two different stories. At even strength, the Hurricanes were utterly dominant. The three icings that Minnesota took in first five or six minutes of the game were a harbinger of things to come. The speed and tenacity of the Hurricanes young legs were too much for the Wild pretty much constantly and in all three zones. My count was a 13 to 3 shot advantage at even strength in the first period and a three 3 to 1 advantage in terms of drawing penalties which racked up even more shots. But the flip side was that the Hurricanes continued to struggle mightily through two plus periods in terms of special teams.
Jordan Staal who seems to be being rewarded for his strong play with a fluky goal per game lately kicked off scoring by kneeing a puck into the net on a rebound on a Trevor van Riemsdyk shot. But then the special teams struggles reared its head. The Canes failed to score in 1:18 of 5-on-3 play with a 1-0 lead and then yielded a power play goal against to be back at even to close out the first period despite holding a 20 to 5 shot advantage.
The second period was more of the same. Brett Pesce finished a pretty play with a targeted tip of a Sebastian Aho pass playing 4-on-4 hockey. The Hurricanes again dominated possession, shots and everything else to the tune of a 16 to 4 shot advantage yielding a two-period total of 35 to 9. But along the way the Hurricanes failed to score on four more power plays thereby leaving the Wild within striking distance despite playing another period mostly under siege.
And strike they did. First, the wild scored what was more or less a power play goal shortly after a penalty kill ended, and then they tacked on another. Suddenly, with 14 minutes remaining, the Hurricanes found themselves unfairly down a goal. But that only set the stage for a chaotic third period that is starting to become this team’s comfort zone. Sebastian Aho mercifully ended the team’s power play dry spell, when he rifled home a rebound from Justin Faulk blast from the face-off circle. But the Hurricanes resolve would be tested again, when the Wild again claimed the lead with 4:13 remaining. But the never say die Hurricanes scored their second goal of the season with the goalie pulled. Justin Williams scored his first of the season from a tough angle with 1:09 remaining to push the game to overtime. That set the stage for Aho to cap off a good night beating Devyn Dubnyk from between the face-off circles off the rush to run the Hurricanes point streak to six games and 100 percent of the 2018-19 season thus far.
More than anything, this win was another indicator of a difference in terms of attitude, resolve, resiliency and whatever other intangible words you want to tag to last season. And not to be lost is the fact that the team picked up two more points in the standings and pushed farther into the season still in incredibly good shape in that regard.
Player and other notes
First and foremost
Analyzing the game results always includes a number of details especially on the player front, but it is important not to jump too quickly to that and miss the all-important bigger picture. The team exited the 2017-18 season needing a change in attitude, character, leadership or whatever else you wanted to call it. Right now, this team is learning to win and more importantly what it feels like to expect to win but at the same time do the necessary. Under Brind’Amour this group has yet to leave the arena without a point now in 11 games. And the two third period comebacks suggest a never say die attitude. This transformation trumps any and all details that follow.
Sebastian Aho
Even with Eric Staal trying to taking liberties by banging him around a bit when the puck was not there, Sebastian Aho rose up and was the best player on the ice on Saturday night. Ironically, he somehow fired over the cross bar from within a foot or two of the crease, getting nothing for his best chance. But he scored the all-important power play goal to break that bad run and pull the Hurricanes even when the game seemed to be slipping away. He had the pretty pass on Pesce’s goal. And of course he closed things out in overtime.
Andrei Svechnikov
After a run of generally strong games, Andrei Svechnikov had a tough one on Saturday. He took three minor penalties of which at least two were the unnecessary variety. Sometime within the next couple days, Brind’Amour will find the right way to discuss the sloppiness and help the 18-year old gradually make adjustments as part of his ongoing development.
Riding the horses
Jordan Staal’s 23:25 of ice time is an amount he surpassed only once in 2017-18. Justin Williams’ 20:41 is the most he has played since rejoining the Hurricanes. Teuvo Teravainen logged 21:50 which he bettered only once in 2017-18. Sebastian Aho played 20:45. As the game wore on, Brind’Amour shortened the bench and played the two anchors to his top two lines as much as he possibly could. That group had all of the four goals and six assists collected by the 12 Canes forwards. Had the team lost and had to carry what could be a tired crew into the second half of a back-to-back with travel, this could have backfired. But with a big win in hand, Sunday’s game is for bonus points, and there is also a good chance that the feel-good attitude coming out of Saturday could provide more fuel.
Valentin Zykov
In his return to the lineup, he logged only 4:43 of ice time. He seemed to get caught with his head down a couple times in what was a physical game.
Brett Pesce
He had a strong game in total and collected his second goal of the season. If my math is right, he now has both of the only two goals scored by the blue line which is odd considering the group and also the fact that he does not play on the power play. Regardless, his goal on Saturday was a big one, and his game in general was a key contributor to the win.
Jaccob Slavin
He just continues to play well and look even faster than last year. He continues to be the team’s best defenseman or close on an every game basis.
Curtis McElhinney
The game was a nerve tester for the goalie. The team was completely dominating but not scoring which left McElhinney waiting with nothing to do for minutes at a time but no margin for error when a shot came his way. He fared well early but not so much late. The first goal against saw McElhinney square to the initial shot but then somehow allow the rebound to end up behind him. Then the late goal that was almost the difference-maker saw McElhinney get beat short side from an angle where there should not have been net to shoot at. All in all, Saturday was not a good night for McElhinney, but right now the team’s run and gun style has been incredibly forgiving for goalie play.
Next up for the Canes is a flight, trip through customs and a fast turnaround on Sunday night in Winnipeg against a good team. As I said on Twitter shortly after Saturday’s win, the team already did well to get one out of two for the back-to-back, so it is playing for bonus points on Sunday.
Go Canes!
This team never quits. Special teams were not good. Goaltending was challenged. Rookies, even Foegele, had an unremarkable night. Yet this team won. Great effort and great win.
For years I have watched stars steal games from the Canes. Tonight Aho owned this game and got the win for the Hurricanes. It would be a truly great October if he is locked up for eight years.
Canes won and have the most points in the league for teams who have played 5 games. I don’t care if they win ugly or win 5-0. Keep piling up the W’s.
Oh yeah, was Eric Staal such a dirty player in Raleigh? I don’t remember that, maybe he didn’t care enough to assault other players.
I’m with you on locking down Aho ASAP. It’s not like his value is going to go down anytime soon. Give him what he wants while we can still afford it.
Agree, but if I’m Aho’s agent his price just went up this week.
Another great way to win. The team continues to impress. Much like the Islanders game, the Canes played better but were not overly successful against a strong goalie performance. But the second, third, and fourth goals all exemplified why this team is for real. The Teravainen–Aho–Pesce sequence was beautiful. The formerly poor power play looked potent as Aho scored following a strong sequence of passes and shots. Finally, with the goalie pulled the Canes kept firing quality shots until Williams got one in. Then having the three offensive stars together in overtime was perfect. While the PK continues to be a real problem, the Canes are doing almost everything else right. The team has turned me from an optimist into a believer.
With all the good outcomes for the Canes (and Checkers for that matter), not signing Aho and Teravainen in July is looking like a big mistake. It could cost the team $2-3M per year. With other youngsters like Svechnikov, Foegele, Necas eventually needing new contracts, the Canes need to sign as many players early as possible. Last year the team did just that with Slavin and Pesce (who is going to be an enormous bargain). This year the management missed making the right decision.
I agree about Aho, but I haven’t seen enough out of Teravainen to merit a big contract. He’s a passenger on the Aho line most nights. Aho is going to get someone to pay TT way too much. Much like Tavares did for Mike Moulson and Kyle Okoposo. Hope the Canes don’t take the bait.
lessthan. Aho is a great player. However, Teravainen is much better than he gets credit for. He is not just Aho’s second fiddle. He is an excellent passer, underrated defensively, and has hockey IQ close to Aho. One of my go to places to better understand the game is HockeyViz. The data there clearly show that last year Teravainen benefitted Aho more than the other way. In fact, Teravainen was the single player on the Canes who made every teammate better in 17-18.
The comparison is not so much Tavares/Moulson as Scheifele/Wheeler. Together Aho and Teravainen are dynamic, both make the other better.
I think the the powerplay is going to be better. I know it’s a results-based business, but it’s not like the shots and chances aren’t coming. Dougie is gonna heat up, and a little Z net-front definitely wouldn’t hurt, since of those 4:43, zero came on the man advantage if I’m not mistaken. Kind of weird seeing how he’s been deployed early this year. The kill is concerning though. Quite a few missed assignments and the goaltending will of course be a question, probably all year.
I didn’t think starting Mac tonight was the move to start with, and tonight sort of confirmed that. Mrazek needs to play a little bit and be given more of a chance than he has. I get riding the hot hand, but a 35 year old goaltender isn’t suddenly going to be able to handle a starter’s workload and be consistent.
By the way, I’ll just go ahead and throw this out there, Ned was rock solid for the fourth straight game last night, stopping 34 of 35. He’s played all four games for Charlotte, all wins, and has a .933 Sv% and 2.01 GAA to show for it. Kid could make a push for Raleigh, just have to see how things shake out with Mrazek/Darling (and to a lesser degree, McElhinney).
Either way, 4-0-1 feels awfully nice.
We’re seeing a repeatable formula that is getting results even if there are obvious issues to sort out. And since there are always going to be issues to sort out, I’ll take these issues with 4-0-1 over different issues and a lesser record.
We are riding our main horses a little hard early in the season. I thought Necas was much better tonight and Foegele not as good as he’s been. Zykov took a very hard hit early and maybe that had to do with his limited playing time – wondering if he was injured.
Good point on Z
Pick up the wins while you can. The thing that scares me the most is looking at how the Canes rely so heavily on their top 6 (top 5 tonight with Foegele getting sat a lot in the 3rd). I mean how many minutes are Aho, Terevainen, Staal, Williams and Ferland going to end up playing this season? They’re all playing such massive amounts of minutes I do fear their play tails off over the season if the Canes can’t find a way to have the bottom 6 increase their total minute yield.
I think one thing that shouldn’t be lost in this game was the Brind Amour vs Peters difference come end of the game. How many times in the past 3 years have we seen Bill Peters call timeouts and spend the ENTIRE TIME frantically scribbling on his beloved white board pointing at everyone “you go here!” “and you be here!”. What did BrindAMour do in the final timeout with whiteboard in hand? Do NOTHING more than explain and talk to his players ‘in general’ he never once got that whiteboard out to draw up a play – instead he just seemed to try to motivate them verbally. He spoke mainly to Aho and Williams during that time – and what do you know those were the two that pretty much factored majorly into the game tying goal.
I agree so much with your second paragraph. Overcoaching is and epidemic in sports. I watched a NLCS game turn into a spring training game the other night. There are a ton of very taltented players playing in the NHL. Taking off the restrictions and letting them play is am move most coaches don’t have the guts to make.
I also was concerned about the TOI for many of the forwards last night, but when you look at how Svechnikov was playing it kind of explains it. Brind’Amour couldn’t lean on the Wallmark line because they either couldn’t be out there because Svechnikov was in the box, or he didn’t want to put Svechnikov back out there because he was a trainwreck. That’s the thing with young players…they will have some rough nights. The Canes may pay for that tonight in Winnepeg, but getting two points when you can is what you have to do.
Matt. I was wondering about your “challenge ahead.” I think the D will actually be better against Winnipeg and Tampa. As you mention, Slavin looks faster. The Granlund goal last night highlighted the one weakness in Slavin’s defensive game, he is only average (not saying he is bad, just not his usual strong self) when the defensive play requires little movement. Last night he was caught almost motionless after the face-off that led to Granlund’s goal. I think this is also why Slavin has been on the ice for so many short-handed goals. The truth is that he and Hamilton have not been great as a pair, I think it also has to do with the fact that both want to quickly transition. Slavin’s strength is using his speed and stick when the opposition is attacking quickly–his play late in the game was a good example. Both Winnipeg and Tampa play up-tempo games that will bring out the best in Slavin.
It is not odd that Pesce is leading the blueline in goals. He is the most rounded of the big 5. While Faulk and Hamilton have a better history as offensive threats, Pesce has shown in his last 25 games (12 points) serious scoring skills that he is learning how to use. Pesce is also as solid defensively as Slavin and de Haan. The Canes are seeing the emergence of another top-tier defenseman.
Pesce is a true shut down D man. I hope the offense continues, but he is good without it. Slavin is a puck mover. He isn’t as good as Pesce positionally, or one on one. But, damn can Slavin get you out of trouble and the team going the right way when he gets the puck on his stick.
This was an awesome game to watch, exactly why I love hockey.
And the good guys managed a character win, Aho was a beast, totally up there with the top tier of NHL centers if he can keep up even a resemblance of that performance.
But there are obviously weaknesses.
* The Svech line played badly, svech took 3 O zone penalties and Walmark took a penalty too, I don’t think any of them factored on the score sheet. Tough night for that line, I am sure they will bounce back but it was a learning moment.
* I don’t see what Necas is doing on the NHL roster right now. The kid needs to play big minutes in clt instead. Roy has cooled of from his red hot start but I’d like to see him or Kuakkenan called up.
* Faulk did not have a great game, he factored in on the scoresheet for an important assist, but he took a bad penalty, had a lot of missed shots and looked his last year self a bit.
* The canes have to work on special teams. Special teams are all about systems and her is where Roddy would benefit hugely from someone with NHL experience of playing systems. He has done a remarkable job so far as an HC but his strength is the motivation and communication, he needs a little bit of stragedy and systems help.
* We won’t keep winning playing the top 6 forwards so much. They will get tired or injured and the team has to be ready to respond. That being said, the team has split minutes evenly in some games, so yesterday was a bit of an exception.
But, man, these types of games are fun, really fun, and the never-say-die attitude was on full display.
I agree with almost all your assessments but I didn’t see Faulk as bad last night. In fact I’d say WOW – the most impressed I’ve been with anyone this season could arguably be Faulk. There isn’t a more clear example of a single player going from Peters style to Brind Amour style. He’s been snarly, physical, and a threat to shoot quite often. He hasn’t had too many complete blunders – and him and De Haan have looked a real steady pairing together.
To see BRandon Saad on the 4th line and being written about playing badly and not consistently I’m thinking the Canes are in better shape having NOT traded Faulk ++ for Brandon Saad. Faulk’s value in my opinion is skyrocketing from his talented 3rd pairing rank last season to climbing back into top 4 caliber.
I agree 50. He did take a bad penalty but I really think his play has been good. You always look for the guys who you think are not cutting it, so I have been looking for Faulk. There will always be mistakes but I do not think this is the same Faulk we had last year. My observation is he is back.
Faulk has looked much better. He still seems to not have the confidence shooting the puck like he has had in the past. Last night Dubnyk stopped a Faulk shot with his head diving across the crease. Faulk needs a few breaks to go the other way.
There were a lot of positives from last night. How long has it been since we get behind and did not fold. The formula is repeatable. This is all about full effort and the belief that you can win regardless of what happens. Sometime you need to also give credit to the other team. Our power play look horrible, there is a big but… Dubnyk is phenomenal. That was one of the best goalies I have seen. The only reason the wild were in that game was because of his effort. Its not like our shots were perimeter only. It took amazing passing and plays to beat him. I was very encouraged by how we scored on him. The resiliency, something we have not seen here in forever.
Mac (easy spelling this way :-)) was not good. He had a bad night. The team was strong enough to overcome that. For me the biggest fear is will the young guys run out of gas later in the season. Outside of this, this is repeatable.
We have a back to back with border crossing this evening. It will be hard against a good team but I suspect the effort will still be there.
I still do not get why Z is not on the power play.
Zykov isn’t “earning” any time on the PP. His 5 on 5 play has been forgettable. He isn’t fitting in the process for Brind’Amour, IMO. Would I like to see him there? Yes…I think it would be a different look that may work, but the coach is going to have to go against his mantra to put him there.
There will be no naysaying from this source. Winning is the only thing that matters. How we do it only becomes a factor if we are not doing it. I could pick apart every little thing that took place in the game where the Canes could have done better, but they obviously are playing on the whole better than their opponents. Thus, relative to their competition they have been the better team.
On the personnel side of things all the contributors above have made some good (IMO) suggestions about possibly moving some players from Charlotte to replace players who are not currently performing well.
fiftymission cap points out his error about trading for Saad. Well, I was right there months ago with this same idea. So while I won’t say fifty had “good” company, I will say he h to ad company with what at the moment appears to be a bad idea.
Regarding the season so far as a whole, I find the contributors to this site seem to have upped their game
I wrote the above because my wife said “shut up and be happy, we are winning” when I started over analyzing (in her opinion) things. So I’m relying on all of you gals and guys to cover things for me until I regain control in the household. It seems the more the Canes win, the more I hear “I told you so” from my beautiful counterpart. I’m sure you all will understand.