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Thursday is officially training camp eve which is of course a magical day for hockey fans especially after another long offseason. Starting tomorrow, Coach Bill Peters begins the process of taking the mix of old and new and young and old puzzle pieces and assembling them into cohesive groups that are worthy of earning a long-awaited playoff berth.
The announcement of the players for each of two different practice groups provided significant clues as to Peters’ starting point for line combinations and defense pairings. Sorting out the D pairings and forward lines is the topic of part 2 of my training camp preview for today’s Daily Cup of Joe which you can find HERE.
Today’s Coffee Shop polls and discussion offers you the chance to take your turn at playing Bill Peters and building a winning combination of lines and defense pairings.
Carolina Hurricanes polls
Please remember to click ‘vote’ after each individual poll answer.
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Discussion questions
1) If you were Bill Peters, what would be your forward lines?
2) If you were Bill Peters, what would be your defense pairings?
3) What will you be watching/evaluating most closely during the first week of training camp that includes three preseason games?
Go Canes!
Let me preface this by saying I would have a long discussion with Eric Tulsky. Because my combinations suggested below are based on the information available from public analytic information (hockey-graphs.com, hockeyviz.com, moneypuck.com, quanthockey.com). If Tulsky has better or additional information I would listen to him.
1) First= TT/Staal/Williams. These three drive possession more than any other forwards and the analytics indicate that Williams should make Staal more of a threat in close, which no other player on the team can do.
Second= Skinner/Rask/Lindholm. When they were together last year all three was at his best.
Third= Aho/Ryan/Stempniak. The numbers that Aho gets as much “finishing” from these two as other pairings and given the strong indication that the other lines are the best way to utilize those players, this line is predetermined.
2) I will use the 1+1=3 meme for Pesce/Slavin. But the numbers then indicate that having two weaker/inexperienced players together create something like .5x.5=.25. So the total of the “it just makes sense lines” is 3.25. Whereas the strong link analysis of hockey indicates that a strong player (Pesce and Slavin) improve weaker players. So Pesce/Fleury and Slavin/TVR work out to 1+.5=1.7. So the total is 3.4 and better than 3.25. Ask yourself why were the Canes defensively below average last year. The 37 minutes without a strong player, or even 15 minutes since Faulk’s offensive skills make him a different type of strong D, sunk this team. Should that be the starting position this year? Two different goalie analysis (hockeyviz and money puck) indicate that Ward and Lack were slightly above league average. That should make considering new pairings more of an option. It IS BROKE. There is a way to fix it.
3) Does Williams elevate all the Canes? Who is going to the next level: TT? Lindholm? Rask?
I apologize for the “out there” perspective. But I tell my kids there is truth in numbers, you just have to look at them when you don’t like the stories.
1/ I like the smell of what ctcaniac has cooking. I’d be watching the 3rd line carefully for production and possession, but I have high confidence in these first two lines.
2/ I’ve been a big weak-link guy but am becoming swayed that maybe I’m wrong here. Still, I think Slavin/Pesce is a must at home; maybe, and very reluctantly, split them up on the road only if Faulk/Hanafin starts off looking too much like Faulk/Hainsey did last year. Since we’ve built this team from the backend out, we’re only going to make the Playoffs this year if Faulk and Hanafin are solid defensively, whether paired together or with others. I liked them together after the trade-deadline and that would be my default starting point.
Sidebar: all our focus this offseason has been on Slavin/Pesce (contract extensions), Hanifin (possible extension, “is he really going to be a top-pairing guy” discussion), Fleury (probable battlefield promotion), and TVR (new to team). We have hardly talked about Faulk at all, yet he is one of our best offensive weapons period and is a notorious slow starter. One of the season keys to me is whether Faulk can pretend that October is January and round into mid-season form far sooner this year. We’re going to need a full season of solid two-way play from him, not just ~40-50 games of it.
3/ On D: is Darling the real-deal? how does Faulk/Hanafin look (#2 above)? Is Fleury ready? On O: is Lindholm picking up where he left off last season? Is Rask any faster/better skater and ready to take the next step? How is JW used? Is TT stronger? Who among our prospect Forwards is closest to playing at NHL speed with NHL strength?
1. One thing that is apparent about Bill Peters and his forward lines is that he likes to shift them up. About the only line that has remained relatively steady through a given season in his tenure is his 4th line. He is opportunistic versus a given opponent, and he mixes it up during a game to get some energy. So I won’t offer preferred lines, but some comments on line combos and players.
I think it is a mistake to describe Lindy as being part of a defensive line. He was one of the top assist guys in the league in the last 2/3 of the season and his ratio of primary assists was amazing. His goal-scoring was off, but watch for that to change this year. Regardless he has been a playmaker and he has a wicked shot.
With Kruger on board and his ability/willingness to take faceoffs in the defensive zone and his solid play as a defensive forward I think you are right to have been assuming all along, Matt, that this will take some of that responsibility off Staal’s shoulders. In turn I think Staal’s offense is likely to go up as his individual numbers. Remember the original TSA line from last season (the line with the 2:14 shift?) – that was not a checking line. That was a line with skilled offensive players driving possession in the offensive zone. That type of line will be much more viable.
To CT, watch the numbers change on some of these players. The past won’t predict the future.
I think Williams will prove to be an excellent jack-of-all-trades with an ability to play well on any line and elevate that line.
2. I think you will likely see a platoon system, at least initially. With Slavin/Pesce and Hanifin/Faulk at home, when Peters can control the match-ups, and Slavin/Faulk and Hanifin/Pesce on the road.
tj. I really love to look at graphs and read analytics. But I don’t have the statistical background to create original work. That being said, my understanding is that stats like Corsi and expected goals are more predictive than points. You are correct that not the past is not fully predictive for the future. But the analytics do often indicate how to best combine players to maximize future success.
What has me excited is that the data indicate that TT and Lindholm should have more productive years. Also, Williams will make one of the lines different in several important ways that are more offensive.
The numbers indicate a few potential negative trends. But hey it is preseason. Not going there.
My understanding of the predictive vs. descriptive aspects of fancy stats (and I do not use that term derogatorily) is that predictability from year to year is limited, i.e., the stats may be predictive within the current season but this year’s stats don’t offer much predictability towards.
And once you establish a relationship (or not) there is then a need to explain the observation.
I think the lack of predictability from year to year in part, at least – and maybe in large part in some cases and with some stats – reflects a change in roles or other observations. Some, of course, are a result of skill level and player tendencies which are less mutable. And I would suggest some stats – those you reference that indicate makes whoever his pairing partner is better – are pretty solid both descriptive and predictably (barring injury, perhaps).
I think stats like xG, Corsi, other possession stats are going to change dramatically this year over last for several players – particularly I think Staal. A change in the quality and type of players on the team who can line up with him will change his game in a way that will affect the numbers.
To put it one way, the original TSA line was a beast early in the season. Peters moved away from it, in my opinion, not because it wasn’t good but because Peters couldn’t balance the other lines as well. There will be fewer limitations. I actually think an Aho-Staal-Lindholm could be an incredibly effective offensive line with solid play in the D-zone and neutral zone as well. The numbers for each of those player will look very different that being the case.
1. Forward lines: I’ll leave this up to others to decide. I will just say no young forwards will make the team. The forward roster is set.
2. Pesce/Slavin and Hanifin/Faulk for top two pairings. My concern here is depending on Fleury as part of third pairing. He looked lousy to me at Traverse City. He was timid (hit no one, sunk back in on goalie, lousy gap control) and appeared to fear speed inordinately. Hope he appears better in training camp or we are in trouble on the third pairing.
3. Fleury…see above.
I’m inclined to agree about not being impressed with Fleury in TC but haven’t seen much chatter about it. Hopefully it was just a bad string of games or I only saw the bad plays and he comes into training camp in better form.
RedRyder… I’m always ready to take a SWAG (silly wild-ass guess)… so starting with the “young forwards” I think Foegele makes the team on Ryan’s line w/ Stempniak! -3rd
1st -Staal -Aho -Lindy. 2nd -Rask -Skins -Willy 4th -Kruger Nordy -Jooris. …leaving Teravainen as the 13th (extra forward)!!
With both Jooris and Kruger (defensive forwards) signed, it seems to me that RF and Peters are leaning HARD towards guys who are more physical and defensive oriented…Foegele fits that mold better than TT IMO …I ADMIT IT IS A SWAG!
puckgod, of all the young forwards Foegle probably has the best chance to make the team. That’s because his strengths (speed, can score some, and is excellent forechecker, defensive player, and can play on the PK) will fit in better than most of the other young forwards. The other young forwards just don’t appear to be able to add offensively enough at this point to offset their deficiencies in other areas. Kukounenen might have a chance, but he sure didn’t light up things in Traverse City. So I will say if any young forward makes the team out of camp, you are probably right.
I agree about forward lines being set, though if RF had a great trade, something involving a Nugent-Hopkins, or some other center, it could make things interesting.
I know we’re all counting on Fleury, but don’t forget Carrick as a left hand D. If Fleury’s not ready, I could see Carrick making the team while Fleury gets sent down for more seasoning. I feel confident that no on will be rushed because “it’s their time”.
I wasn’t wowed by Fleury. However, the more I watched (admittedly on a poor quality one-camera feed through NHL.com) the more I think I understand what makes Fleury good. He doesn’t look like he is “stopping” the other team because he doesn’t make a lot of aggressive takeaway plays. I do remember half a dozen times where he challenged an opponent either when they were entering the Canes’ end or when the puck was about to cross the blueline in the offensive end. Every time Fleury made the play. None were overwhelming or overly physical plays, all were effective.
As RedRyder mentioned, he seemed to back off when a player from the other team was in full flight. But as I watched it happen multiple times to me, at least, I saw that Fleury was keeping himself between the goalie and the puck. Not once did he get passed–I noticed this happened one to two times to Thilander and Carroll, but I am pretty sure it didn’t happen to Fleury. Again nothing “wow,” but effective.
Obviously the Chicago game was a team-wide disaster. In fact, most of the problem was whoever had the puck giving it away between the goal-line and center ice. It happened all game. And Fleury had two ugly giveaways himself. I will admit he is not the dynamic puck-mover that Bean is.
Still, I think he showed solid play that was reflected in the team only allowing 2 goals in the three games that weren’t the disaster.
Like red ryder I’m not going to play the line combination game. It is just not in my skill set. Instead here is a set of random observations.
1. Hopefully Coach Vellucci learned more about his team this season, than I did about the relative quality of our prospect pool. All I got was the pool is largely young, green and have a lot to learn. Any definitive judgement on any player from the “viewabilty” of those games is highly subjective at best.
2. Given the opening day roster is as much a reflection of contracts as skill, I expect no rookie to break into the opening night roster. There just aren’t slots available unless RF sends players away in a trade. We will eventually get to see some of the rookies here, but only based on injuries and/or trades.
3. There is little reason to expect any rookie to impact this teams performance. That expectation is hard to avoid, but in reality is unreasonable.
Line combinations/defense pairings at practice on Friday were:
Forwards: Teravainen/Rask/Williams, Aho/Staal/Lindholm, Skinner/Ryan/Stempniak (not 100% on 4th line, and I thought I saw some flipping there).
Defense: Slavin/Pesce, Hanifin/Faulk, Fleury/van Riemsdyk.