The Daily Cup of Joe today is entitled, “The double-edged sword of optimism.” The aim is not to squash the good vibe that has been building over the summer. Rather, the aim is to question whether the dial could flip too far into the positive, maybe a little bit too soon and pave the road for another even bigger round of disappointment.
The Thursday Coffee Shop opens the floor to bandy around whether the expectations being built for the 2017-18 Carolina Hurricanes are underdone, overdone or maybe just right and also take the temperature of the fan base in terms of where the bar is set for the current season to be a positive one.
Without further ado, to the polls we go…
Carolina Hurricanes polls
Please remember to click ‘vote’ after each individual poll response.
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Discussion topics
1) Does anyone else feel like maybe the cart is starting to get ahead of the horse in terms of balancing near-term optimism with objective odds of success? If so, does that represent a problem?
2) Where do you think the Hurricanes will land in the Eastern Conference/Metropolitan Division standings in all of the season previews and predictions about to be released? Where should the Hurricanes be ranked?
3) What is your read on the fan base in terms of having the right balance of optimism and patience?
Go Canes!
1) Nope. As several articles have indicated, the team improved the most in the league during the off-season. It added one of the top three goalie free agents and arguably the second best (I would say only behind Shattenkirk) skater free agent. Kruger and TVR are upgrades as well. Don’t forget the subtractions that made the team better–it wasn’t totally coincidental that the Canes played well after the trade deadline. Nothing against either of them, but Hainsey and McClement made the team worse as did Tennyson.
2) The previews will have them 4th or 5th in the division and either taking or just missing the last wild card spot. Hurricanes should be ranked 3/4 in the division and the top wild card pick.
3) I think the hard core base (represented by C&C readers) are a tad over-optimistic. But the majority of the base is probably both short on optimism and patience. The optimism is about where it should be about Darling, but not sure all but the most obsessed fans realize how much Williams brings. Also, few of us (maybe none) understand if the commitment to analytics will make a significant difference this year, but I am pretty sure that none of us consider it reason for optimism and it definitely is.
As far as patience, again only junkies like us seem to understand that no matter how good the Canes are this year, they have multiple prospects who should/will make them better for each of the next 4-5 years. A lot of the base is hoping for and/or expecting the next Aho. Kuokkanen, Gauthier, Roy, Necas are not likely to deliver on that this year or next. But one of them might be the next Rakell or Granlund who storms into the league 3 years after being drafted.
1. I believe our expectations are where they should be. Young team with lots of potential ready to break out. The time is now to make the jump, but not earth shattering (see #3)
2. I now peg the Canes 3rd in the division behind PIT and CBJ, and ahead of PHI for 4th. Both NY teams are overrated and will likely fall below the line, WAS will take a downward spiral (surprise to some or not), and NJ is going nowhere.
3. New ownership, if it happens during the season, will trump anything on the ice and ease fans minds and their fears of relocation. Excitement will be instilled to even the casual fan thus more home fans will attend games, making the barn more difficult to play in. This would likely help the play on the ice and catapult us into top 3 in the division, proving the pundits wrong (reference points above in question #1).
1/ I think we should be more optimistic. We did a lot of good things this offseason – more than almost all other teams – and our young players have much higher ceilings and still noticeably growing.
2/ National media: bubble to wild-card team. That’s about right but maybe a tad higher. Part of our natural bias should be we are not a playoff team until we’ve made the playoffs.
3/ I like what ctcaniac said.
Im fairly grounded with expectations and believe we need another offensive weapon to get to the playoffs. We improved on paper but we are unsure how it will go on the ice.
Will Darling play like a top 15 goalie?
Will Staal bring his O game up now that Kruger is here to take some D load off?
Will Hanifin and Faulk play well together?
3 big questions that must be answered before I can say there is a definite chance of making the playoffs.
This could be a great season as the team has the potential to be a division top 3 team. They also can bomb and miss the playoffs again. We need to make the playoffs for the fans sake.
I agree on needing another offensive weapon. I think right now we have a decent chance of making the playoffs, but if we want to make it more likely to happen I think we should sign another scoring forward and add a solid top-4 capable defenseman. I think Vanek would be a great addition if we could sign him or Jagr if we can’t get Vanek. We need a top-4 capable defenseman in case Hanifin isn’t ready for everyday top-4 duty or someone gets injured. Same goes for Vanek/Jagr as far as putting us well into the playoff competition and being a safeguard against injuries/regression.
If we really want to be in the playoffs and not just hoping for the playoffs we need these backup plans in case of injuries, regression, or guys like Hanifin/Ryan/Darling aren’t good enough for their expected roles this year. Having said that I don’t think these moves are necessary to make the playoffs, but they would go a long way to making it more of a sure thing. Also, I’m not one of the people that feels like we have to make the playoffs this year or else the world ends. I do think that year is probably next year (18-19). We should definitely be in the playoffs by then barring significant injuries regression. Although there might even be challenges that year if we have several prospects making their NHL debuts. Even though I think they should be ready by then, you just never know how they will adjust to the NHL.
1. I really don’t think anyone has gone overboard in their expectations for the 2017-18 season. Based upon the expected improvements that have been made, it is reasonable to expect at least a move into a wild card playoff spot. Everyone seems to express the opinion that this is not a slam dunk though.
2. ctcaniac is right on in my opinion on this point (you know you are going to have to get up early in the morning if you are going to top him). IMO he’s got it right.
3. Again, ctcaniac hit the nail on the head. Can’t add anything to what he has said.
First and foremost. Ctcaniac, seriously how do you think so clearly, so early in the morning? Your post is absolutely spot-on
Secondly, don’t hate on us over-optimists. It’s been nine years without a playoff spot, so forgive us if we’re excited about the legitimate long-term potential of this team. Some people are ‘see and then believers’ and that’s totally okay. This guy here is a ‘Believe and then see” mainly because I like to stay ahead of the curve. And I’ve seen enough crappy rebuilds to recognize a great one when I see it.
Plus as ctcaniac rightly infers, WE HAVE SOLID PROSPECTS CLOGGING UP OUR SYSTEM. Maybe they’re solid NHLers, maybe they’re trade bait, but regardless of how this season plays out (and I want a playoff birth very very badly and believe it will happen this year), we’re still set up for the long term, so forgive me if I’m a tad bubbly about that.
GMRF be praised
I am “over” optimist as well. I think it is grounded in reality. Y’all know I enjoy looking at analytics. While tj might be correct about Williams influence off the ice, it is on the ice where he is most impressive. I was looking at some charts yesterday and Williams was only player in top quartile of all six metrics related to goal production. By the way Kruger is among the best fourt line centers from data standpoint.
If any of the young guns make significant improvement, the Canes are in the fast lane to May hockey.
1. I am taking the “over” on optimism. Broken record time for me, but I believe we were a wild-card playoff team last year except for the 6 weeks when the wheels came off. We played the “Big 3” in the Metro extremely tightly, again except for those 6 weeks. I cannot explain what happened those 6 weeks, but that is where I am hoping Justin Williams’ presence in the locker room will make a difference.
I expect we will outperform even the improved projections next season.
2. I expect we will be discussed as a wild-card team. But we are better than we were last year. I expect – barring major injuries – that the team will finish in the top 3. But we shouldn’t be ranked there until we do it.
3. My view on the fan base is biased! 🙂
BTW, if you haven’t read Chip Alexander’s article in the N&O, you should. Apparently what was a Letter of Intent is now a “draft sales agreement” being reviewed by attorneys. The wheels are turning and I am more optimistic of a sale.
After reading the results of the polls (which are very rational and realistic IMO), and all the well-thought-out POSTS… my opinion is only slightly different than most… BECAUSE of the last umpteen years of disappointment, I’m a little/LOT JADED…ie. my optimistic GENE has withered (or maybe it’s just OLD AGE?)…
Anyway I can see why you can logically be positive…I’m just more in the Missouri frame-of-mind (SHOW ME STATE)!
I look for what can go wrong (much more than eight or ten years ago), and despite a new goalie who should be a sizable improvement, we can only hope Darling stays healthy and can play MOST OF THE GAMES…
Our offense should be improved- by the addition of Willy, and incremental improvements of several younger guys.
Our defense appears to be a long-term VERY BRIGHT LIGHT!
…if it goes (as scripted)…things look good, but MURPHY’S LAW AND ANY BAD HEALTH…
What…me worry??
Great set of comments as always!
Per the terms of service that you all agreed to probably without reading when you registered, next week’s DCoJ will be at least 85% copy and paste from here. 🙂
Please don’t hate me for it. It’s not laziness. It’s August, and there just really isn’t that much to write about.
More seriously, I think the Hurricanes and its fan base are on that bridge where it IS a disappointment if the team misses the playoffs, and that is EXACTLY where we want to be. I just hope that we are not in for one more year of ending up on the wrong side of the bridge because it will hurt more this year because of the (legitimately) higher expectations.
Next week you could give us your opinion on what a successful season looks like for the players/prospects next season as well as pre-training camp lines for Canes and Checkers. I know you’ve covered the players and prospects extensively already, but it’s a thought.
Or we could all argue over what we think the best lines would look like for the Canes and Checkers.
Matt. No need to ever apologize. What you do every day is amazing–not only writing a full length post but coming up with questions that get us going.
I do like bridgeburner’s idea of bandying about our ideas of what the lines should look like in both Raleigh and Charlotte.
Also, I am perfectly fine with a daily open thread and whoever is interested commenting about whatever Canes related topic strikes our fancies. I can’t speak for everyone, but C&C is as necessary for me as morning coffee is for my wife. You don’t need to do all the work. Thanks again.
An open thread is a great idea ctcaniac.
I’m in the camp that the canes should be in the market for a 1 or two-year rental to legitimize the team, and re energize the fanbase by doing everything possible to make the playoffs. I am not sure I the Canes will ever have this quality defense for the bargain price tag again (this year is crazy), and we have a lot of young forwards that may surprise and shine, or may need another year to mature.
We have the financial flexibility (I know we have a lot of contracts so squeezing another one in is getting tricky), but there is every reason we should add a proven scorer, oar at least onemore guy with NHL talent.
The perfect situation would be to get Tavares’s last year with the Islanders (if they decided to head for the bottom, get a top draft pick and build the team again), I know, chances of that are in the astronomical range.
But realistically I am thinking someone like Jagr or Vanek.
jagr doesn’t fit our style of play that well, but the man is a beast, can score, and can teach the young guys a lot about winning culture, character and dedication.
Vanek is an enigma, but I still think he has got more in him, enough to be signed to a one-year try out.
I noticed discussions that Alex Chiasson is still without a contract. I found him an interesting player when he played against the Canes, streaky but the kid’s got some talent.
Then again, we got an over supply of young guys with talent, but I still wonder if this guy might be worth a PTO.
And Franzon is still a free agent, if we want to add some depth to the defense.
Signing the extra player now is more of an insurance policy than a necessity, but signing the right player will, I think, be worth it. I am happy with the team, but I can’t shake the feeling that one more addition is needed.
The obvious plus of getting Vanek or Jagr is that we don’t lose any players to get them. The important thing would be not signing them to too many years. One or two years would be ideal. Anything over that and you’re clogging things up when our prospects start to make the team, but that’s not a terrible problem to have.
Breezy, I’m with you and your suggestions are pretty good IMO.
My thoughts include all of yours, but I wonder (based on the contract situation-49 contracts, I think) if RF might trade someone to acquire another scoring forward? I don’t think that it’s very likely, but because a few teams are not set with their roster or CAP SPACE…S@#T HAPPENS! EH?
I am going to disagree with breezy. I don’t think we need another solid forward to make the playoffs. We will need one to challenge for the cup – but that is not this year and we have candidates coming up.
And with 49 roster spots, I doubt we will sign a FA – regardless of that kills our chance to do anything to “help” a team with cap space issues closer to the season.
As to the named players, RF has already said he hasn’t contacted Jagr and said it in a way, I think, that he wasn’t planning to do so (and they are former teammates and still friends). I think for good reason too – Jagr doesn’t play with the pace that Peters/Francis and I don’t see a place for him. I am a Jagr fan and I hope he finds a spot in the NHL But that spot isn’t with the Canes. Vegas would be perfect, actually.
As to Vanek, I don’t think he is better than anyone on our slated top-9 such that he should bump any of them.
Just my thoughts.