With the conclusion of the Stanley Cup Finals on Sunday night, the off-season officially begins today, and hockey fans are slated for three consecutive weeks of off-season excitement. First up is the expansion draft which officially concludes next Monday. That gives rise to the regular draft and the trading ground that it can sometimes provide. And then there is a week until the start of free agency on Saturday July 1.
Needless to say, the next three weeks are certain to be the busiest ones of the off-season.
The primary subject of today’s Coffee Shop polls and discussion will be the expansion draft. We will recall a couple polls that most already voted on and add a layer of new expansion draft-related polls, and the discussion questions will take on the same theme.
Carolina Hurricanes polls
Please remember to click ‘vote’ after each individual poll response.
Originally from March 30, 2017.
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Originally from March 30, 2017.
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Discussion questions
1) League-wide, what do you expect for the week leading up to the expansion draft? Will it be a busy trade week? Will teams do deals to avoid losing players for nothing or just resign themselves to losing someone and then move forward from there? Will the expansion draft see more or less action than the regular draft weekend?
2) Are there any players likely to be expansion draft selections that you would like to see Francis make a pitch for?
Go Canes!
IMHO, there will be a small number of teams (6 to 8) trying to get something rather than nothing. But as you noted a while ago, this only applies if the second in line to be exposed is of significantly less value than the first. So I expect expansion to be busy, but not a busy as entry draft weekend.
The player who I think checks several boxes in this category is Grabner. If LV selects him, I could see them being willing to flip for maybe a 2nd and 4th as LV needs to build its system. He is one of the few 4th-line types in the league that can add scoring, he is PK specialist, and the contract is extremely reasonable for one year. Because the salary cost is $1.65M, it would allow the Canes to overpay for a UFA–ideally Williams, maybe even Oshie, or as last resort Vanek. Added scoring–check, PK–check, bridge to prospects–check, reasonable cost in terms of futures without losing young D-man–check.
I like Michael Grabner. He reminds me of Viktor Stalberg. He is a depth forward but a very good one. His $1.65M salary fits neatly onto the fourth line, but he will score at a higher clip than that and is capable of playing higher in the lineup if injuries or chemistry require it.
1. I see draft picks, prospects, and current 4th liners flying all over the place involving Vegas so teams can protect certain players. Vegas only can roster or would want to roster 20 players from the draft. The other 10 they would have to do something with. They would want to staff there minor league team with prospects. This means obtaining more draft picks. When Vegas gets the draft list of unprotected players, IMO they will then decide which 20 or so of the 30 they would want to be roster players for this season. They would then, IMO, attempt to set up trades before the draft to unload the other 8-10 players to get prospects and/or draft picks or other current NHL roster players who were protected by their teams.
2. If we see Vegas drafting Stempniak, McGinn, or DiGuiseppe I would think Francis would try to trade a draft pick(s) or Dahlback to keep whichever one Vegas was going to draft. I think all three of these players would be of more value to the Canes than they would be to Vegas. Stempniak surely is an important Cane player who would be hard to replace otherwise knowing our other needs. McGinn and DiGuiseppe are young and provide depth in the case of injuries and I don’t think Vegas would be seeing either as being necessary for this years NHL roster.
I agree with ct (less action) in that there will probably be 6 to 8 teams scrambling. We are one of the teams that can take these guys (D) and protect them. (In my earlier comments, if we did do 2 top 4 D, I realized that would expose Roland McKeown, so probably only want to do one D to potentially flip). I think any of the top 4 D are a target, with the expectation of flipping them after the expansion draft as a way to get a top forward. We have the picks, cap room and protection slots. We could always keep them also.
I could see dealing with Vegas to give them some draft picks but not to ask them to take a specific player from our roster. I think DiGuiseppe and Nordstrom get exposed for the forwards. I would say we do that to get a player. Any trade probably occurs after the expansion draft but with negotiations occurring prior to the expansion draft. I think RR had it right but the trading will probably physically occur after the expansion draft. Its going to be an interesting and crazy ride.
Honestly, with all of the permutations involved with player movement this year; the expansion draft, restricted/unrestricted free agents, trades and the draft, I will be shocked if Francis can top offers from the other 30 (29 not counting LV) teams and acquire the true difference maker we all want and feel the Canes need to move to the next level. We all like to talk about who we would like to see in a Canes uniform, but the discussion is always in a vacume and often does not factor in the competition. Most teams are looking at the same needs but all have different assets to use for bargaining. Quite frankly, for that reason I don’t see the Canes adding the true difference maker up front without giving up one of the players most of us would prefer not to be dealt. Specifically Hanafin, Slavin, Faulk and Pence. There have been many eloquent arguments made regarding the foolishness of trading one of these guys (and I’m not lobbying for it) but I don’t see a scenario where a top 3 forward/center ends up in Raleigh without one of those players, and likely one of the young d-man studs plus a draft pick goes the other way. I tend to look at the glass half empty with these scenarios. I hope I’m wrong.
Good analysis and you really point out how the other teams will effect things when you go to wheel and deal for the player(s) we want.. I just wanted to add that there is one other way to get that forward you want. That is go after Justin Williams who is a free agent (or some similar free agent, Justin is my preference).
The analysis is good, totally understand. Most teams are looking at the same needs as you said and everybody is maneuvering. The things that can put the other teams at a disadvantage is their salary cap and exposures. We have cap space, slots and picks. This is why I think we may be able to pull something off. Doing a top 4 D before the expansion may be a way to get to a top forward. Teams who want these same top players are under constraints. Ours would be self imposed if we refuse to spend money. I would really hate to see us give up one of our D, it would just create a problem in another area to fix a forward issue. I think our present D could be some of the best in the NHL given some time to mature.
I was hoping for Oshie as a UFA but probably a bidding war we could not win. I think Washington wants to resign him.
1st,, I see an extremely busy pre-expansion going past the draft.
A lot of teams have holes in their roster which can be plugged by a trade or two. Most teams could be improved with a judicious move, and Vegas will probably listen to all comers, and have already said that they want more futures… This year’s and future year’s picks will be in play. It would be shocking, and disappointing if it’s not an active trade season!
Another thought or three.. Pre-expansion draft (as Matt pointed out) not many teams will be able to add a player w/o RISK. SOOOO
RF could have minimum competition for adding a Dman. I suppose that RF could also use that advantage to acquire someone (for another team) with the agreement to swap him for WHATEVER, after X-DRAFT!!
Anyway, RF can (if he so desires) get a pretty good player w/o having to outbid EVERYONE!
Vegas needs 23 one way contracts,about the same number of 2 way contracts to staff their AHL team and begin stocking the pipeline with junior, foreign and college players. Little is being said about that reality. My feeling is overlooking those details will make most of the predictions about the expansion draft overly simplistic and as a consequence very inaccurate.
Overly simplistic and inaccurate? If accurate and precise prognostications were a prerequisite for blabbering about, we’d all be doing something else with our free (or not so free) time. It certainly would take the fun out of the effort.
Overly simplistic and inaccurate? It took me hours to dream up some of the tripe…er…astute observations that I have penned. And, accuracy has never been one of my forte’s. I’ve penned so many opinions that under the laws of chance maybe something will happen that corresponds to reality in the end.
All kidding aside (kidding from my point of view, maybe not in the view of those of you who have read my essays), surgalt your comments are correct. Nevertheless, the exercise has been fun, I’ve learned a lot from all the contributors (some say at the intellectual level that I started at, this had to happen), the summer was made a whole lot more bearable, and of all the net sports sites I’ve been involved with the contributors here have been more realistic in their ideas, expressed more interesting thoughts and ideas, and been the most courteous writers.
My comments were not to be meant to critical of anyone specifically. Sorry to have stepped on anyone’s toes. Vegas just has all the power to steer this process for now. This process has little useful precedent to guide analysis. Here’s all we know. There will soon be 23 more jobs in the NHL and 23 more jobs in the AHL. Hockey unemployment stats will improve.
No worries. Good points. I agree totally with RedRyder. Lots of fun having thoughtful, and respectful, conversations with many interesting viewpoints. No politics, no religion and no Taylor Swift vs. Katy Perry. It’s all good. Now CCM vs. Bauer may get a rise…
surgalt, I sure hope you didn’t interpret my comments as being critical of anything you or anyone else wrote. My comments were positive. I stated “surgalt your comments are correct.” Maybe my first sentence of the second paragraph made you get that opinion. In my parenthetical comment I was referring to MY first paragraph where I pointed out how many let’s say not so smart ideas I (Red Ryder) have come up with over the summer, the law of averages may come into play. I might just get lucky and something I(Red Ryder) have proposed might actually happen. I was just adding emphasis to your point in your comments.
Rest assured that I will be the last person to criticize anyone on this site. My expertise is NOT at what you might refer to as RF level. Well, really my friends have said “… you could take a thimble and put my hockey knowledge in it and you would still have plenty of room for a finger tip.” As I have stated previously in another article “I ate so much humble pie during the past season with my predictions my weight has blossomed to 260 pounds.”
To be clear, at Canes and Coffee, passion counts for 5 times as many points as accuracy. 🙂
What about Occam’s Razor?
That’s a pretty sharp comment…!
Occum’s razor suggests Vegas will take roughly the 13 best forwards, 7 best dmen, 2 best goalies from the expansion draft eligible list. They will also take the 8 best players based on overall trade value to obtain the best list of 2 way, junior, college and foreign players. Once their head start on signing UFAs begins they will upgrade their rosters as available and as cap floor minimums and maximums allow. The process won’t really begin until the Knights see the protected lists. 30 fan bases are looking to find how the process can be manipulated to serve their ends. That is the least simplistic solution plausible.
Has anyone heard if Cam Ward was asked to waive his NMC for the expansion draft?
Ward does not need to waive his partial NTC. Only full no-movement clause players must be protected for the expansion draft. Both Ward and Lack will be available when Las Vegas drafts.
Since Fleury waived his NMC for the expansion draft, it’s a safe bet that’s he’s gonna end up as Vegas’ Pittsburgh selection. I won’t be able to make my horribly inaccurate predictions for the Drafts till I see the protected lists for the other 29 teams,