Today kicks off reader and guest week at Canes and Coffee, so rather than pairing the Monday Coffee Shop with the Daily Cup of Joe, today’s polls and discussion questions stem from the two articles posted today.
Reader David Miller offers a detailed three-year straw man projection for the Hurricanes’ salary cap through the 2019-20 season.
Carolina Hurricanes polls
Please remember to click ‘vote’ after each individual poll response.
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Discussion questions
1) Per David Miller’s salary cap projections out to 2019-20 that sees the Hurricanes near the cap in three years, do you think that the team’s budget will grow to that level? What do you think will be the general strategy to keep the core of the team intact as players come off of inexpensive contracts and earn salary increases?
2) In general terms how many roster slots would you allow to free up from veteran departures to be won by rising youth? Which veterans do you see departing over the next few years? Which rising youth do you see seizing those slots?
3) Which comes first, the chicken (salary being increased to win) or the egg (the team winning to justify spending more)?
Go Canes!
(1) In comments to a previous post I expressed my belief that we would not go above upper 60s in salary. That would be contingent to the ownership. I think under PK, that number will be the max – he is a financially constrained owner (speculation has it that the $5M offer price includes acquiring about $2M of debt. A new owner makes the possibility of us getting closer to cap ceiling much more likely.
(2) I think a number of players are short-term – Kruger, Jooris, Ward and probably even Williams.
I think other players – most notably Teuvo – are going to have to prove they belong in the NHL at that level.
I expect there will be a healthy competition in future training camps as the Charlotte forwards, who will have shown what they can do in the AHL and in NHL call-ups for injuries and such, will be fighting to take the spots being cleared or currently held by marginal $3M players.
(3) I think that is a false dichotomy. PK has shown he will pay up as young talent matures (Slavin). There will be inherent inflation as salaries need to climb. Depending on ownership, decisions will be made at what rate that inflation occurs relative to losing assets. So the answer might be both, or neither. 🙂
1/ The salary budget will rise in 2018-19 only if we make the playoffs in 2017-18. I think this will be the year that GMRF will make some hard decisions on some players we view as “core”, like Rask, TT, Lindholm and even Skinner (mostly because of his pending UFA status). I also think that discerning eyes will be on Faulk to get off to a quicker start and Hanifin to pick up where he left off at the end of last season. I’m guessing we’ll see someone get traded to make budget room and roster space available for a prospect.
2/ You didn’t frame the question like this, but from studying this stuff over the last week, I think 2018-19 is the year we’ll be ready to go for it, so I wouldn’t be at all be surprised if that is the year we see a trade for an extra offensive weapon even if it costs us a prospect or two. Under that scenario, I think we’ll see at most 2-3 prospects crack the roster full-time in 2018-19. If we miss the playoffs, all the plans start to crack and it gets very dicey.
3/ I don’t think it’s an either-or question. That question only comes into play in 2018-19 so we have one full season to get into the playoffs and generate the momentum around attendance, etc. – basically to do what TOR, NAS, CBJ, and EDM have done – to re-energize the fanbase – which will make spending more in 2018-19 possible.
Next year is the real key to the plan. We really have to make the playoffs and be a Buyer at the deadline. That’s what I’m expecting. Otherwise, there’s going to be a major re-evaluation of the core group.
1. I think the Canes (and any team that wants to keep talented youngsters to compete) have to be close to the cap to compete for multiple years. I heard a fascinating fact on NHL radio that Detroit has not had an active player for active player trade this decade. Even with home grown talent and moderate-priced FAs the Red Wings are near the cap because you have to pay players once they produce.
2. Stempniak is almost surely going. I would think Ryan will to unless he increases production to more than 50 points, Jooris is a one-year rental. Of the “core,” I think Rask might be the one player at risk of being moved. The potential centers in the next 2-3 years might mean that Rask is expendable. Which leads to who I see making the team in the next two years: one of Roy and Gauthier because another right shot is needed; Kuokkanen and/or Wallmark; Necas; maybe Zykov as he is also right-shot who can play RW. With Stempniak and Williams aging out and Ryan being on the bubble, the team will be short of RWs and right-shots in another 2 years. I think 2 or 3 prospects are brought up to start 18-19 and two more for 19-20.
Finally, as fas as roster construction, I think Cory was on to something last week. The team is being built to be possession monsters. For that reason, I think Kruger is likely to stay beyond the current 2-year contract. Also, a prospect will be brought up for his ability to play with Kruger on a shut-down line. My guess is Foegele or Smallman.
3) I think the chicken (GMRF) has already laid the egg. It hatches next May and the extra income allows for more overall salary as more eggs hatch.
Until the ownership issue is settled it’s my continued opinion that the team needs to be improved. I can’t think of a reason to change, nor do I see why anyone would want to spend as little as this team has, unless winning isn’t a priority… Karmanos lost more money in revenue than what his frugality saved him. This team may be better (on paper) than last year, but more could (and should) be done!