What a difference a week makes! Last Monday, the Coffee Shop had to open its doors to grumbly Canes fans. The All-Star break weekend offered a well-timed break but the mood for me anyway was still fairly ‘blah’ with 5 straight losses. A week later, the team just did well (not perfect) on a 6-point checklist entering the weekend and more significantly went 3-0 for the week and will ride that 3-game winning streak into a new week.
Have to celebrate when you can, so I am cheating and posting the Monday Coffee Shop post early.
If you just want to get to the polls and the chatter, scroll down…but then please come back and read my preamble later. 🙂
Thank you, welcome and please come on in
First, a huge thank you to everyone who chimes in at Canes and Coffee!
There are a couple angles to the “Coffee” theme chosen for the site name, but a primary point was the hope that the site would gradually take on a bit of a neighborhood coffee shop feel over time. I (Matt) obviously yammer much more than my fair share at CandC and have been told that I can be opinionated (passion isn’t a bad thing right? :-)), but in often writing from a stream of consciousness, “here is my random thoughts right now” angle, I very much recognize that most times there are differing viewpoints that are equally smart and valid. As more of those viewpoints are shared and debated (in a friendly and respectful way…like a neighborhood coffee shop) and as my role shrinks some, Canes and Coffee will become better for all of us.
For those who just care to read that is fine too, but for those who are conversation-inclined but just do not feel like they have anything worthwhile to contribute, I encourage you to chime in. Questions are a great way to spur conversation. Alternative viewpoints are valued and needed. And if you are new to the debate, please say so when you start. Hopefully others will help too, but I promise to do my part to make sure we grow as a welcoming group that has a “more the merrier” feeling.
Routine and schedule (Monday and Thursday)
First, to be clear, nothing is changing with the ability for people to comment and for sporadic conversations to pop up on any and all posts. But with the aim of spurring conversation and making it easy for everyone to pop in and see what people are talking about, the short-term (and maybe longer depending on how it goes) plan is to keep a routine and a calendar with a new “Coffee Shop” post on Monday and then again on Thursday(ish) each week. I figure Monday most often follows a couple games over the weekend and also gives us Caniacs something to do to get through the first work or school day of the week. And by Thursday, we will have beaten Monday’s discussion topics to death and need something new. The Coffee Shot is pegged to the top right corner of the main grid, so the most recent is always right there in front of you on the main page.
Polls
Finally getting to the point to the relief of those who hate the long preambles that sometimes precede the meat of my posts, here is a set of polls and also discussion questions for this week’s Coffee Shop (up a day early simply because of the excitement with a winning week and also because 4 hours of football is enough).
Remember to click ‘vote’ for each individual poll question.
What are the chances that Sebastian Aho continues to surge and challenge Toronto rookies Marner and Matthews for the Calder Trophy?
- 21-40% - He has ground to make up which puts the odds low, but it's possible. (54%, 33 Votes)
- 0-20% - He is having a great season but is not quite in that tier for 2016-17. (23%, 14 Votes)
- 41-60% - He is close now and surging giving him a 50/50 shot. (13%, 8 Votes)
- 61-80% - He has ground to make up but is playing as well as anyone with plenty of games left. (10%, 6 Votes)
- 81-100% - He is better than the field and is destined to emerge at the top come mid-April. (0%, 0 Votes)
Total Voters: 61
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With a tough week ahead with road games against the league-leading Capitals and then the Stars on the road, how many points is enough?
- I know it's tough, but the Canes need 3 to keep gaining ground. (43%, 26 Votes)
- A solid 1-1 mark with 2 points is enough this week. (39%, 24 Votes)
- The team needs a winning streak, and the time is now. Must get all 4. (18%, 11 Votes)
- I'd begrudgingly settle for 1. (0%, 0 Votes)
Total Voters: 61
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On a scale of 1-5 (with 1 being bad and 5 being good), how do you feel with the Canes road play heading into a week with 2 road games?
- 2 (45%, 27 Votes)
- 3 (33%, 20 Votes)
- 4 (17%, 10 Votes)
- 1 (not good at all) (5%, 3 Votes)
- 5 (incredibly good) (0%, 0 Votes)
Total Voters: 60
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With Ward playing both halves of the back-to-back this weekend, when now do we next see Eddie Lack?
- Tuesday. Caps on the road is tough anyway, so rest Ward and give Lack a no-pressure start. (45%, 27 Votes)
- Not until the next back-to-back set on February 28 and March 1. (30%, 18 Votes)
- Not until the run of home games in late February. (22%, 13 Votes)
- Never. (3%, 2 Votes)
- Not until sometime in March. (0%, 0 Votes)
Total Voters: 60
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Over coffee discussion questions
1) General topic: Which player(s) have most upside to fuel February-April push: If the Hurricanes are to take the next step up above the playoff cut line, which players have the most to give in terms of finding a higher gear for the last 31 games of the season? And what do you think they are capable of?
2) General topic: Trade deadline if the canes are still in the playoff chase: As a fan who probably desperately wants a return to the playoffs but likely also respects what Francis is doing in building the team from within with an increasingly stocked pool of young players, how much if anything would you be willing to give up in trade if the Hurricanes are still in the playoff hunt at the trade deadline at the end of February? Would you be willing to add a short-term rental player or 2? If so, what position/role/skill set would you target?
3) General topic: Yammer randomly like Matt: 100 words or less (or cheat if you want to) random thought on the Carolina Hurricanes right now. Go!
If anyone has suggested polls or discussion questions, please either email them or put them in the comments below. With a twice per week cycle, we can include some of them next time around, and I could probably use help coming up with enough material.
Go Canes!
As for your first question/discussion point, I’d point to two players I think could step up and add something to the playoff push. The first is Victor Rask. His play of late has been forgettable in most areas. Nothing glaringly bad, but very little contribution over the last month or so of play. He needs to be the second best center on our team as it is now constructed for the Canes to have a chance to make the playoffs. The other player I think has room to get better, surprisingly, is Jacob Slavin. It’s hard to find any fault in his game, but I believe he has more he can give on the offensive side. He has very good stickhandling skills and a pretty good shot, but he is very conservative as to when to jump up on the rush or pinch the zone. I think a little more confidence in his offensive game could translate into more points from him.
I’d love to see this team push their way into the playoffs, but I’d avoid the temptation to trade for a rental at the deadline. And with the expansion draft, I’d also probably avoid making a trade for a forward even with a good amount of term on the contract due to the expansion draft and the need to protect players. If anything, I might target a 4/5 defenseman that can’t be protected on their current team given the expansion rules and our flexibility due to our defensive core’s exempt status. Then, you can either keep that solid player for the next year or two, or flip them over the summer for a forward that doesn’t have to be protected. This year just doesn’t seem like the year that we want to plug our forward holes due to the expansion draft.
I think MinjaBen’s description of Rask is dead on. He hasn’t been bad. He very rarely is. “Not glaringly bad,” “forgettable,” and “very little contribution” describe it pretty well. In his young NHL career, he has historically started strong and then hit a lull in the winter. Here is hoping he can find another gear for the last 1/3 of the season.
On the first point I would agree with minjaben above. Rask needs to be more of a contributor offensively and with faceoffs. Slavin can be more active in the offense also.
In addition, I think the emergence of Eddie Lack as a viable backup (or starter) would be a great help.
I would not like to see the team trade for a RENTAL player just to try to get us into the playoffs. It has taken sometime for us to accumulate some organizational depth in players and I wouldn’t want to squander this depth picking up someone who would not benefit us beyond this season. Again, minijen above has some good comments and I would second his (or her) thoughts.
On Lack, agree that he needs to be viable come March when the schedule gets hectic (18 games in 31 days starting on Feb 28). Something like 4 starts with a 2-2 or 2-1-1 record will hopefully be enough.
Hey Matt could you run a poll on what the Canes should do. I am curious what other Caniacs think.
1) Stand pat
2) Sell ….Trade Hainsey, Stalberg, McClement
3) Buy…..trade for a player such as Duchene and give up some of our high end prospects.
1. I think Faulk appears to finally be playing to his past potential and still has a higher gear he can shift to – and it’s a gear we’ve seen in the past. I’d not only like to see this in the defensive zone, but on the scoring front – either on the power play (how much iron has he hit recently?), or sending his howitzer from the blue line.
2. Not sure if I’d go fishing for any type of short-term rental player, and I’m pretty sure RF would definitely not be in the market for that either. What would intrigue me, and I would hope RF too, is if a younger, talented, forward could be had, along with perhaps a draft pick, in exchange for Hainsey. In other words, we’d provide the rental player. I know if we’re still in the playoff hunt, giving up Hainsey could possibly hurt us in that regard, but let’s face it, RF’s in this rebuild for the long-term – and if the right player is dangled at the deadline, for the right trade price, I could see him pulling the trigger if it fits into those long-term plans.
3. Now that we’ve gotten a pretty good feel for this team, I’d be interested in knowing how RF should actually proceed in his rebuild. What ARE the pieces he feels we are lacking? I think we all feel like we still need a top line scorer if we’re ever going to make the playoffs, and then actually go deep in the marathon that’s the NHL playoffs (it’s almost like a mini-season of its own). I think goaltending, at some point (next season?), is also going to have to be addressed. Cam can’t last forever. So I’d be really curious how our actual General Manager sees his next steps, now that he’s had a good chunk of this season to analyze the current pieces.
I’ll hear hear (here, here?) the Rask comments regarding the need to step it up. I’ll also nominate Jordan Staal as needing to play consistently like the best or second best player on the Canes that he is. He’s been very, very good but if they’re going to make it into the playoffs Jordan is going to have to be even better. As always, the fifth gear for him is the clutch goal and he’ll get his chances, he just needs to finish.
I don’t see any rental players coming to Raleigh. The difficulty for RF is going to be that the Canes are likely to be in the hunt for the last playoff spot right up until the end. Not sure you want to jettison starting players like Hainsey unless you’re getting an equal or better player back in the deal, and not just more draft picks.
I agree with the consensus that Rask has the potential (and the Canes have the need) to elevate his game.
I also think Skinner has to both up his game and play smarter. He is trying for too many 1-on-n rushes, where n > 1, and it’s not working for him. He is a streaky goal-scorer and I am sure he has at least one more goal-scoring streak in him this season.
For Slavin – the sky is the limit and he will keep getting better.
Noah has to right the ship and Lack needs the chance.
If we are playoff-contending at the end of February, we should go for a rental if the price is right. And we have enough organizational depth that we shouldn’t be having to giveg up anything that we will miss in the future. It isn’t just for the fans. It is for the players. We have a March-heavy schedule and it is in March that the Canes playoff bid will be won or lost. I think it is best to tell the players – who all want to be there – we believe in you, we are going to make the run, and we are going to go looking for help to try to make this happen. Players don’t want to be on a “we’ll wait until next year” team.
From skimming the comments, I think you are the only 1 who thinks Francis might spend (modestly) at the deadline.
ONLY IF the team is at or very close to the cut line, I actually think Francis might make an upgrade if the right deal is out there.
3 caveats:
1-He will NOT spend big. I think the ceiling for a rental type addition is a late-round draft pick (4th-7th). A 3rd would be a stretch.
2-If Lack actually gets a chance before then and does not look good, it might be possible to add goalie for cheap. If Lack starts and plays decent, that need goes away.
3-I think a veteran forward with some scoring ability could fit really well – someone like another Stempniak.
Again, Francis will not win any bidding wars. The price has to be right and of course the team has to be in the hunt.
1. McGinn and Pesce. McGinn’s point production has been down significantly since his outburst three weeks ago. But watching the Islanders game it is apparent that he brings energy every time he is on the ice. I think he pairs really well with Rask and Teravainen. While both of those players have upside for the remainder of the season, I think it might be McGinn that makes them step it up. Pesce is going to keep getting better–he and Slavin will have to shut down some of the game’s best for the Canes to make the playoffs. Either Cardiac Cane or Canes Country had a statistical analysis earlier this year that Pesce is actually slightly better than Slavin both when they are together and those brief times when they are paired with others. If he can play his A game every night, the Canes can play with every team the rest of the season.
2. Don’t see any trades if team is in contention, which would mean some of the players mentioned in these different posts are in fact stepping up. So keep them as they improve.
3. Randomness. I haven’t read your post about 2018-19 possible lineup yet. But the names of the lines has great potential. The VJs (Rask, Skinner, and Staal). The Finnish Line (Aho, Teravainen, Kuokkanan). Jen Next (Gauthier, LIndholm, Roy). The Old Guys (Ryan, and two others).
Justin Faulk doesn’t necessarily need to step up, as he’s played well on the 3-game streak, but he can’t slip back into the form he showed before the all-star break.
In general, one of our four A’s need to rise up and claim the C through their play and leadership. Honestly, I think any of them could, but none have showed consistency in that leadership – the tendency to step up at the right time night after night, not with scoring, but the plays that win games with timing and smarts. Staal is the closest, but what would we be like if all four of them were truly leading with their play, like they have shown they can, at the same time? Look out!
And Noah – I love you, but pick it up, buddy.
My sense is that Jordan Staal needs to be the guy that steps it up….and really only on the scoring front. He’s been set up multiple times this season only to see those opportunities go a wanting. Sure I’d like to see Rask (and Skinner for that matter) pick it back up, but I think he’s been pushing a little too hard. Speaking of Skins, I’d like to see him focus on the complete game a little more. Not that he’s been falling off on the defensive side of things, but more that he’s just not thinking in a team-first manner. He did that more earlier in the season and was rewarded for it.
As far as acquisitions or sales at the deadline, it all depends on these 10 games in February. If we go something like 8-2, 7-3, or 6-3-1, then Ronnie might tinker a little with the team. I could see him picking up a solid #6 defender or maybe a goalie is Eddie doesn’t step up. But this team is really constructed pretty delicately at the moment and I could see the chemistry rattled with any major moves. I think he and Peters see that too. So I don’t know what moves they could make that wouldn’t alter that (and I’m not saying we’re perfect or anything).
If the team goes 5-5 or worse, then GMRF has to be a seller. We can say that Hainsey, J-Mac, and/or Stalberg won’t bring much, but the value to the franchise of extra picks and prospects cannot be understated. A couple of 3rds and a 5th or a 2nd, 3rd, and a 6th would all add up. There’s not going to be a lot of sellers this year either given how tight everything is, so the return might even be enhanced.