After a tremendous run of 13 games with at least a point, the Hurricanes hit a bump on Saturday and then again on Sunday. If my math is right, wins by both Toronto and Ottawa on Monday night would eliminate Carolina from playoff contention before they even took the ice for their next game on Tuesday.
There are things to watch and root for in the final 4 games, but it is also a time for starting to look forward to a 2017-18 season which has more potential than any in recent history to push the team over the hump and into the playoffs. And at Canes and Coffee, it is also time to think about (and hopefully generate a small budget for) the site’s coverage over the summer and for the 2017-18 season.
Mostly with the aim of looking forward to a bright future and less about commiserating over the 2016-17 season, here is some stuff to bandy around the coffee shop on this fine Monday.
Carolina Hurricanes Polls
Remember to click ‘vote’ after each individual poll response.
Loading ...
To see game recaps to refresh your memory, click on the ‘Blog’ tab at the top of the page and go to ‘The Drive Home’ where you can scroll through all of the game recaps.
Loading ...
Loading ...
Carolina Hurricanes discussion questions
1) Is anyone concerned that the late-season surge might make GM Ron Francis more content than he should be to just roll into the 2017-18 season with the same roster without any upgrades?
2) What are your thoughts on the top 4 defensemen next season? With Faulk’s strong last quarter of the season and Noah Hanifin stepping into Ron Hainsey’s slot, is this the top 4 you would run with for 2017-18? Would you consider adding a proven #4/#5 to provide veteran depth if you could get him for a reasonable price?
3) What was your favorite part, event, occurrence, etc. for the 2016-17 season?
Go Canes!
1. I think the team is committed to getting better every season while building for the future. That is not the definition of complacency. That being said, I think some fans (and myself some days) want the team to mortgage some of the future immediately. Think of how almost everyone was willing to trade Faulk and/or Lindholm in January. Sure Duchene would be an upgrade, but at one position and with a higher salary. If we seriously think about the future, there are key players who will need new contracts in the next 2-3 years. It doesn’t make sense to trade a top player like Faulk and ALSO risk losing Pesce or Lindholm down the road due to salary just to get a top center in a trade and another goalie in free agency for next year. What RF has done in his trades so far is much preferable–he uses other teams’ need to reduce salary or need to “rent” a player to improve our future. Teraveinen is already an important part of the team’s future. And unless Saarela is experiencing impressive beginner’s luck, he is going to be one of the centers on the Canes at some point next year.
So the answer is that I don’t worry that RF will be complacent–I worry that I will get impatient. The Canes will improve next year and should make the playoffs. Then in 18/19 and 19/20 they will be settling in around 100 points per season. Nothing wrong with that.
2. The top 4 is strong on D. You question posits “at a reasonable price,” so of course the answer is yes. But I think it needs to be a 5, because Hanifin will most likely keeping better. And I hope Fleury will develop into a reliable contributor as well.
3. Seeing Eddie Lack (and Ward to a lesser extent) get back on track. I have more to add on this, and will later.
1. Yes, I am worried most about the goaltending staying the same after Eddie’s late run of good starts. I could see Francis holding off on trading to get a forward with the good results we had in March coupled with all the young guys that are joining the AHL in the fall (Saarela, Roy, Gauthier, etc). I’d be ok with that as I think one of those first three could make the team and we saw some encouraging play from Lindholm and Aho that could make them legit 1st line players if that development continues. However, if he doesn’t go out and get a goalie to replace one of the two we already have, then I will be upset.
2. I think our top four are set unless Ron trades one of them for a 1st line forward. We already have Murphy signed through next year and will most likely sign one of Tennison or Dahlbeck for the expansion draft, so I doubt we then also sign another when the need is almost non-existent.
3. The late push in March for the playoffs, even though not successful, was easily the most fun thing to watch for this season.
Only one thing must change for the goaltending to improve. Think about it. Would you take a 2.30 GAA and .926 Sv%? How about a 2.43 with .918 for 82 games. The former was Khudobin’s first year with the Canes. The latter was Lack’s two seasons combined prior to joining. It is not ability that is keeping Canes’ goaltending performing below average. Even Cam’s career numbers would be acceptable (and more than acceptable if 12/13 and 13/14 are out–I think there were injuries and more importantly, as a parent, I think obvious other concerns those two years). Ward’s career numbers prior to the past 3 years, are very close to Marc-Andre Fleury who many want to bring in.
The problem seems simply to be Marcoux–I was mostly convinced by an article by Eric Cox over at Cardiac Cane. But when I began to look more closely I became completely convinced that Marcoux costs the Canes .010 or more in saves a year. How else to explain it. Add that back into the numbers and Lack and Ward combined can do the job.
Now I realize that both goalies might have long-term confidence issues (thus Lack seeming to improve with the help of a sports psychologist). But I cannot say that just getting a “better” net minder will solve the issue. In fact, there are few options better than 2013 Khudobin or 2015 Lack available at anything like a reasonable cost. The recent good starts by both Lack and Ward are not a concern–they are the answer. Both can be .915 or better if they get a good coach to work with them in the off-season.
If, instead, Carolina gets Darling or Grubauer and keeps Marcoux, then the .905 will continue.
Stats for all goalies going back three years tell you the story of why we need to go with NEW PEOPLE IN THE POSITION! Wardo and Lacko are good people, but that doesn’t buy wins! They aren’t the only thing needing change, but THE BIGGEST, CHEAPEST, AND MOST IMPORTANT! Between F.A.s and trading picks, prospects, and players… this team could be drastically improved!
We always go on these too little too late runs late in the year and kill our draft stock. We had a top five pick/much higher lottery odds a couple weeks back. Some say it doesn’t matter as much this year with a weaker draft pool, but I argue the opposite. That’s why it really sucks that our first round pick is now basically equivalent to a late first or early second most years if we stay around 12-14 instead of being in the mix for Hischier or N. Patrick. We could really use one of those guys. But hopefully we find another Aho. Also, this team may be on the cusp of a playoff berth (hopefully), but that’s not the goal. I know it’s baby steps, but RF needs to be thinking about how to not only make this team a perennial playoff team, but also how to win once we get in. We’re not winning playoff series against Pittsburgh, Washington, or even Columbus anytime soon. We need a legit number one goalie that can steal games once in a while. Cam doesn’t do that. His best games are the ones he just does his job and doesn’t blow it. And he DOES blow too many for that to be sufficient. The defense needs another year or two, especially Hanifin. At that point I think that group will be as rock solid as any in the league, especially the top four of Faulk, Hanifin, Slavs (name him captain by the way – I know everyone wants Skinner, but your captain doesn’t have to be your best or flashiest player. Slavin plays the game the right way and is a guy that can be followed each and every night), and Pesce. Hopefully Bean and Fleury can be quality contributors by then as well. At forward, there is also a lot of work to be done. Lindholm, Aho, and Skinner are the only top 6 players on the roster, and they’re all probably best suited as very good second liners (for now at least, we’ll see if Lindy can build off this great recent run and if Aho can continue to grow as he acclimates to the NHL). Rask, Teravainen, Staal, and Stempniak (probably going to Vegas next year) are solid depth guys, and it’s obviously still to be determined what guys like Gauthier, Nic Roy, Saarela, and Kuokkanen bring to the table. Maybe one or two of those grows into high end scorers, maybe not. I like Roy a lot but he’s more of a JStaal-Esque middle six, two way guy than an offensive catalyst. Basically, this team is a couple years of maturation, two or three good forwards (one of which needs to be of the Very, very good variety), and a goalie that isn’t a sieve more often than not away from really getting somewhere. But I hold out hope.
As long as RF IGNORES THE PROBLEM… MAKE THAT PROBLEMS… nothing will change! Karmanos has retired, there’s no incentive for change… RF WAKE UP NOW… or team needs to learn FRENCH, real soon…
Puckgod, I love you dude, but I implore you to name me the last time a free agent starred on a Cup champion? Outside of goalie, we are not far away from being playoff caliber, and it will only take one or two moves not a freaking paradigm change.
The points made above on goalies are absolutely valid:
1. ctcaniac is spot on with the stats. We need an upgrade. Probably just to one and not both. Who is that upgrade? No one knows.
2. The pool of potential goalie options this year, both in free agency and trade is VASTLY improved from the goalie market last year. Seeing possibilities like Bishop, Fleury or a superior backup like Darling are significantly better than Andersen, Riemer, or last year’s top backup Chad Johnson. The lack of a goalie upgrade for the 2016-17 season may have just been to hold out for this season when the supply goes way up. If so, kudos to Ron Francis for his foresight.
3. I have looked through this entire season with rose-colored glasses. I think we’re so close to consistent contention and Ron has done a hell of a job building this team. That said, If we do not upgrade the goalie position this summer, I invite you to join me for the picketing of Ron Francis’ parking spot in the fall. I don’t expect this to be necessary.
Fogger. We are really close to being consistent and have the talent to be a 98-100 point team starting next year. However, I must disagree with your points 1 and 2. Let me say it again–it is not the goalies. It is the coaching. The more I think about it the more “proof” there is. During the game last night there was a graph showing fewest goals allowed on the penalty kill the past three seasons and Carolina was the best by a significant margin. Now that number alone could reflect the fact that the Canes take fewer penalties. And the past two seasons obviously reflect the great work done by Pesce and Slavin. But even controlling for all that, how to explain that the “horrible” goalies are consistently well-above average. In fact the past 3 seasons, Carolina is the only team in the top 6 every year for penalty kill percentage, which accounts for the fact that Peters’ teams are disciplined. How is that possible if the goalies are so bad. I can’t explain it.
But I can explain it by realizing that Steve Smith is in charge of the penalty kill–and probably has significant input into how the goalies play, while Marcoux’s role is at least balanced out. The goalies, whether Khudobin or Lack and (I know folks don’t want to hear it) Ward all three years have been better than average at stopping pucks when the team is short-handed.
So Fogger and Puckgod–picket RF’s space if he retains Marcoux. Because if we get Fleury (who as I mentioned has career numbers almost identical to Ward pre Marcoux) or Bishop or Darling (who I was fully in favor of acquiring until I started to really think about the problem) and don’t change the goaltending coaching staff, then what are we all going to complain about when the new, high price goalie’s save percentage drops .020?