Four days after the announcement that Justin Williams would not be returning at least for the start of the 2019-20 season, the Hurricanes spent the $4M-ish available salary cap in signing defenseman Jake Gardiner to a four-year contract with an average salary of $4.05 million per year. My initial Twitter-size comments are way at the bottom for anyone who cares to start with those.
In my article about Justin Williams’ decision, I devoted an entire paragraph to the possibility of targeting Jake Gardiner with the salary cap freed up when I wrote:
Also in a Leafs vein, could Jake Gardiner be a bargain basement add. To be clear, I do not see the Hurricanes adding a higher cost defenseman with term to the mix. The team has decent depth for the third pairing. But if Gardiner suddenly becomes available on a one-year ‘prove it’ type deal for say $2 million, he could help the Hurricanes get back to five top four defenseman like 2018-19 and also add much-needed power play help.
I missed on the fact that the Canes would not be willing to commit to term, but the basic thesis of continuing to opportunistically add players who are discounted for whatever reason came to fruition.
On Jake Gardiner
Gardiner is a proven NHL defenseman who has filled a top 4 role for the Maple Leafs for multiple years. He is a left shot who is capable of playing an offensive game but has at times times been much-maligned for his defensive play. The burning question with Gardiner is whether his defensive play is that problematic or if maybe instead he is just a good but not great second pairing defenseman who suffered from being under the microscope in Toronto as a top and maybe overslotted blue liner on a team that was weak defensively. Gardiner legitimately garnered negative attention at times for being prone to an occasional ‘oops’ and some rough patches defensively, but I also think he suffered from Toronto not having a stalwart defensive partner who could balance his skill set and a media environment that can go full microscope at the drop of a puck.
The hockey world can and will debate the merits of Gardiner, but at a basic level, he is a player who has been at least capable of filling a top 4 role on a team that lacked a ton of help defensively but still made the playoffs each of the past two seasons with Gardiner in a leading role.
Plotting Jake Gardiner into the Canes universe
Plotting him into the Canes blue line universe, I see him level-wise as being similar to Calvin de Haan. Interestingly, his salary is lower but similar too. I view Gardiner as being a capable second pairing defenseman and/or one who could play in the top 4 of a balanced set if paired with a strong complementary player. But I do not view Gardiner as a top guy of the type who carries his pair. Gardiner is on the opposite end of the spectrum from de Haan in terms of skill set. Whereas de Haan leaned safe and sound defense and was light on offense, Gardiner is nearly an opposite who can boost the offense but maybe comes with some defensive issues.
Another interesting comparison is Dougie Hamilton. Hamilton arrived with the same scouting reports as a capable offensive player who was prone to lose it defensively sometimes. A key difference is that Hamilton’s offensive gift is more pure goal scoring whereas Gardiner is more of a puck-carrying skate and create type.
Not to be lost is how perfectly that fits into what the Hurricanes are doing at a broader level roster-wise. The team continued to build a lineup built to play fast and aggressive both on the forecheck and with the puck. Dzingel and Haula actually increase the average speed of a team that was already well above average for fast in the NHL. Necas would do the same. Gardiner is the type of defenseman who skates well enough to step up into the play even on a fast team and also how can carry and distribute the puck from the back end to start up transition offense. At least in terms of skill set on the offensive side of the puck, Gardiner is a perfect fit for what the Hurricanes want to do.
Considering where he fits in the lineup
The team could go a number of different directions with Gardiner in the lineup. Especially if van Riemsdyk is out of the lineup to start the year, simplest might be to not make changes and just let Gardiner acclimate initially as the veteran half of a third pairing that is not subjected to as many of the hard minutes. This would give Gardiner a chance to become familiar with the team, build a base with confidence and balance out the blue line across three pairings. He could also be an interesting complement for Brett Pesce. As I noted above, I think key situational context of Gardiner’s play in Toronto was the fact that the blue line in total was ‘meh’ and devoid of true top end talent. That puts a player like Gardiner who leans offense in a tough spot sometimes. Could Gardiner’s puck-carrying ability with maybe need for a bit of help defensively mesh well with Pesce’s steady defensive play? In terms of slotting Gardiner up into the top 4, that is that match that is most intriguing to me.
Regardless of where he slots at even strength, Gardiner figures to jump immediately into the mix on the power play. It is no secret that the power was a sore spot for the 2018-19 team, and I think a significant part of that stems from lacking players with quarter back type abilities and a system that empowers that. Slavin is a great player and competent on the power play, but it just is not his greatest strength. Hamilton has more to give, but he and Faulk are trigger men not really puck distributors. I think ideally the team wanted to run the power play from the side where players like Aho and Teravainen could serve a puck distribution type of role. But teams recognized the lack of a true quarter back up top and therefore adjusted to take away passing options from that spot. Prior to the arrival of Gardiner, I saw Jake Bean as the greatest hope in terms of a point player who could truly orchestrate a power play. But Gardiner has the potential to add more of an element of a quarter back from the point. I could even see the Hurricanes going back to two defenseman on the power play with Faulk or Hamilton as shooters to complement Gardiner’s puck distribution. Regardless, Gardiner is certain to see ice time on the power play and at least brings another option as the team tries to improve in this regard for 2019-20.
The salary cap basics
Some will look at CapFriendly and declare that the Hurricanes are now over the salary cap with a need to make another trade. That actually is not the case. If one adjusts Brian Gibbons and Clark Bishop out of the forward group and removes one of Fleury or Forsling, the roster is then 12 forwards, 7 defenseman and 2 goalies with a salary cap hit of $80.756 million. That actually leaves enough to add one more forward with a $745,000 salary to max out the salary cap. So at a basic level, the math works at the NHL level WITHOUT having to trade an NHL player. In addition, if Trevor van Riemsdyk starts the season on injured reserve, that would immediately start to create a bit more cushion for later.
…But there are little domino effects
But despite the fact that the Hurricanes do not need to make a trade to become salary cap compliant for opening day, there are still significant domino effects from this deal. The Hurricanes now have nine defensemen on one-way NHL contracts all of whom must clear waivers to go to the NHL. With Gardiner, the proven NHL group is now Justin Faulk, Brett Pesce, Jaccob Slavin, Dougie Hamilton and Trevor van Riemsdyk plus Gardiner who makes six. Behind that established group are Haydn Fleury, Gustav Forsling and Roland McKeown. The Hurricanes will need one of those players to be a seventh defenseman and might even be able to hold two short-term if van Riemsdyk is not ready to start the season. But because each of the three players needs to clear waivers, I suspect that the Hurricanes will shop some combination of those three players looking to prune the depth a bit and add a draft pick or two. The return will not be tremendous, but if you can get even a mid/late round draft pick for a player who is #8 or #9 on your blue line depth chart and might be lost on waivers anyway, I think you take it.
…And also potentially bigger dominoes
De Haan’s departure got the Hurricanes back to having four top 4 defensemen in terms of experience/skill level and also salary. Gardiner pushes them back to having an extra a five. The model worked well in 2018-19 with the defense being a strength and the team benefiting from having extra options over the course of a long 82-game season. So this is not a situation that the Hurricanes must immediately resolve. But this move does significantly change the long-term dynamics. First and foremost, the team is back to having five top 4 defenseman for four slots. Also significantly, the Hurricanes again have three top 4 defenseman (Slavin, Pesce and Gardiner) locked in long-term for a grand total of $13.4 million. That at least opens up the possibility of trading a top 4 defenseman. With Justin Faulk scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent next summer and Dougie Hamilton the following summer, adding another defenseman with contract term increases flexibility. The Canes probably need to re-sign one of Faulk or Hamilton but not necessarily both. And with Gardiner in tow, the team does not become short until the 2021-22 season.
Faulk’s situation is most interesting since he is first to become a free agent. Certainly the team has had preliminary talks with Faulk’s agent on what a next contract might look like. After rebounding in 2018-19, could Faulk be on track for $8 million per year for his next contract? That feels high to me, but when you look at the market, it might not be. At that point, is Faulk, who also had a stretch of being good offensively but at times struggling defensively without enough help around him, significantly better than Gardiner who costs half as much?
I do not think anything is necessary or imminent on the blue line trade front, but I think the core at least until things sort out just became Slavin, Pesce and Gardiner. That would suggest that the Hurricanes would at least take calls and consider deals for Faulk or Hamilton.
Wheeling, dealing and doing math
One of my Twitter comments after the deal was announced suggested that the Hurricanes have a leg up on the rest of the NHL in terms of understanding exploiting salary cap math and understanding the all-important ratio of ‘Level of Play to Salary’. I think it is fair to say that Gardiner is imperfect as a top 4 defenseman. But in a market where the going rate to add a top 4 defenseman is rapidly approaching $8 million, $4 million is a good price for proven defenseman even if maybe he is a #3 or #4 defenseman.
Don Waddell’s willingness and ability to do deals also stands out here. The Hurricanes parted ways with Calvin de Haan and did not get a ton in return. More than anything, I think this deal was risk mitigation getting out of three years of a contract for a player who had significant shoulder surgeries in consecutive years. But if you consider the Hurricanes blue line maneuvering in total and if the team ultimately trades a player from the depth of fringe AHL/NHL defenseman, the result will be that the team traded Calvin de Haan and his injury risk plus Aleksi Saarela for Jake Gardiner who maybe better fits the Canes style, a mid-round draft pick and goalie depth. The deal itself does not look overwhelmingly positive, but I think trading out of injury risk and trading into a player who maybe better fits the Canes style is a positive.
Climbing up by stepping on opponents’ heads
Though the team would not do a deal of this significance solely for this reason, there is an interesting side effect in terms of beating the competition. With training camps starting up, Gardiner needed to sign somewhere. Had the Canes not stepped in, might he have cowered to the Maple Leafs cap issues and signed a cheap one-year deal to stick with what was familiar for one year? I especially like adding to Toronto’s woes. I think that team is destined to ultimately sign Mitch Marner but still fail going forward because it did not allocate enough resources to their blue line which will haunt them each and every playoffs. Or if not Toronto, might Gardiner have signed a one-year Patrick Maroon type deal with another Eastern Conference team? Instead, he is off the market and teams that need help defensively will need to look elsewhere.
Parting thoughts
— I like the signing. What wins the day for mean is the price to value ratio. Even with his issues, I view Gardiner as being a $4.5-6 million defenseman in today’s market. Because it is September and he lost the game of salary cap musical chairs, the Hurricanes got a discount on him.
— Sometime between now and when van Riemsdyk returns to NHL action, I think the Hurricanes will trade a young depth defenseman to prune a bit and collect modest value versus just risking the waiver wire. My wild guess….Roland McKeown for a fourth round draft pick first and possibly a Gustav Forsling deal later.
— I do think this opens up the phone lines for a possible trade of Justin Faulk or Dougie Hamilton (or van Riemsdyk even once he returns and proves to be healthy), but I do not see this as imminent. The team was successful with a deep group of five defensemen last season, and with a goal to win again in 2019-20 it could go the same route.
What say you Canes fans?
1) What are your thoughts on the Hurricanes adding Jake Gardiner today?
2) Where do you see him slotting into the lineup?
3) What and when do you expect a next domino to fall in terms of rebalancing the blue line both short-term and long-term?
Go Canes
2/? This rebalances blue line a bit adding 2nd left D. In addition, this gets @CanesNHL up to 3 signed long-term which is significant with Faulk, Hamilton and van Riemsdyk free agents either this summer or next.
— Canes and Coffee (@CanesandCoffee) September 6, 2019
3/? If you adjust for bumping few players to AHL, Gardiner pushes #Canes to about exactly salary cap ceiling. Next domino does not have to be trading NHL players/salary but rather trying to collect some value for 1 or 2 of depth defenseman (McKeown, Fleury, Forsling, etc.).
— Canes and Coffee (@CanesandCoffee) September 6, 2019
This is a value add. Not sure Donnie Waddell is done either.
Wow! Donnie is off to the races. I knew that he wouldn’t leave that gaping hole on defense.
I agree, though. This is only the first of a few.
My dear belt is fastened. Turbulence ahead.
Seat belt not dear belt.
When you look at it as deHaan out and Gardiner in, I like it. As you note, he fits what the team is looking for, especially the speed and potential for PP QB. Gardiner and Pesce could be a great fit at 5×5 and Gardiner and Hamilton on PP1 unit would be fun to watch.
One interesting move for me would be TVR. Not sure what Canes could get in return – 2nd or 3rd rd pick? Keep Faulk as an own rental for this season while adding flexibility to make other moves, including signing Williams should he want to return. If season goes south, Faulk becomes big trade deadline asset.
I like this deal a lot. Like Slavic and Pesce, Gardiner is elite at transitioning the puck up the ice. While Toronto fans liked to throw shade, because that’s what they do, he is a fine player.
Dom Luszczyszyn at the Athletic projected Gardiner as the best D free agent available (after Ericsson) with projected contract and value of $6.8M x 7 years.
It is a long season and 5 top four defensemen is a luxury.
I worked so hard spelling Luszczyszyn correctly that I messed up Karlsson lol.
Matt’s “step on Toronto’s head” comment is spot on. This signing was like winning a 4 point game.
liked that Dom tweet comparing Tyler Myers to Jake Gardiner.
Oh, and Toronto fans are the worse or at least as bad Montreal fans.
I found this article a good compliment to Matt’s thorough and insightful analysis. https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2019/09/jake-gardiner-signs-with-carolina-hurricanes.html My only concern is totally irrational. I’m being reminded of the last puck moving ex-Toronto puck moving defensemen picked up the Canes. Tomas Kaberle. Arguably JR’s second worse move ever. That memory is driving chills up and down my spine. The vodka is helping.
Another in depth analysis, highly positive, on the acquisition of Gardiner. https://mynhltraderumors.com/a-look-at-jake-gardiners-new-four-year-deal-with-carolina-hurricanes/2019/09/06/
I can tell you one person who isn’t happy today, Chase Priskie. His path to the NHL just got a lot harder.
This has Tom Dundon written all over it. On the surface it’s a quality signing. Good player, fair price. On the other hand, what is the strategy here? I bet Prislkie thinks he was sold a bill of goods. Don Waddell would not have a backlog of players like this. Now Waddell will be charged with getting rid of one or two. Probably won’t get the return he could. Faulk has a no trade. He could be difficult, and why wouldn’t he be. He may not want to move twice this year. This is a mess.
My guess on the strategy. 1. Build the best, in quality and depth, defense corps in the NHL. 2. In the process, insure our goal tending exceeds the league average statistically. 3. Stockpile expendable assets (players, prospects and draft picks) to improve the offense with the “right” offensive additions/subtractions. 4. Build off last years success to compete for the Stanley Cup, sooner, rather than later. 5. Build fan loyalty, increase ticket sales and advertising revenue, make lots of money on the investment in the Hurricanes Hockey Club and Gale Force Holdings. Expendable in the process. 1. Justin Faulk’s leverage in negotiations here on his next contract. 2. Any perception on the part of Priskie that the Canes represented a short cut into the NHL.
There is a difference in opportunity and a short cut to the NHL. A big difference. Yes, the Canes probably improved themselves signing Gardiner. They made trading Faulk even harder. Faulk isn’t resigning here. That would have already happened if it was going to happen. Other teams know the Canes will be desparate to move defensemen. Faulk has some kind of limited no trade. Don’t be surprised when the Canes get a Skinner-esque deal for Faulk. I don’t think this is a plan. This is an impulsive owner who thinks he just improved his team. He probably did, but there will be repercussions.
Priskie was the best of the lot. The lot being players who were drafted near age 17 and finished 4 years of college w/o signing with the team that drafted them. That group became free agents w/ the ability to sign a shortened 2 year ELC wherever they could strike the best deal. That group, this year, was not a very deep or talented group. (Fox would have had to play one more year at Harvard to be in Priskie’s position.) Priskie got a substantial signing bonus ($92,500), a guaranteed $70,000/year AHL salary and the chance to earn $850,00 in performance bonuses. He signed with a team with the reputation to develop young defensemen and quickly develop them to an NHLer with high earning potential. He signed with a team that was already deep on the blue line. In my world that is chosen opportunity not exploitation.
Outside of Pesce and Slavin, who were forced into duty due to injuries, who have the Canes developed on D? Fluery? McKeown? Carrick? Nope. That doesn’t hold water. The signing of Gardiner, a player very much like Priskie would like to be, is a problem for Priskie. Yeah, it’s the risks of the game, but if Dundon could rescind Priskie’s contract and let him be a FA I’m sure he would. Same for Forsling.
Look, the Canes are better for the signing, but it’s a gongshow. There is no plan. TD: I have $4M in cap space? Let’s sign Gardiner! This may even work out, but for crying out loud. I feel bad for Priskie, Bean, Forsling and Fleury. They were all told they would have a shot. They have ZERO shot.
just gotta say i’m laughing out loud at “outside of [two of the best d-men in the nhl” who have the canes developed? you’re thinking way too hard about this man.
Not really. The Canes top D picks have flopped. They got lucky on some lower round picks. Both were pressed into service due to injuries. That’s not development. Laugh all you want. I’m right here.
Another article. More praise. https://mynhltraderumors.com/nhl-news-the-carolina-hurricanes-sign-free-agent-defenseman-jake-gardiner/2019/09/06/
The challenge for Brind’Amour and the Canes is to get Gardiner and Dzingel to play “the right way.” Both are known to be quite suspect defensively. That won’t play well with their new coach.
To me the biggest issues for the new season are:
1. Find a goalie that will play well.
2. Will the new additions fit into the culture being created.
Time will tell.
2: seems like guys are being added that fit the culture.
1: I believe in Petr, but he canes do have plenty of chips to trade for a goalie. As long as they don’t keep playing a goalie playing poorly like they did with Scott D.
Still would like them to add some size and toughness. Saku?
San Jose not going to sign Marleau. Starting to dislike that trade/buy out and what it did to our Cap this year.
As usual, surgalt, links to pithy articles. Thanks.
It has been said that the league’s other GMs will know that we are desperate to move Faulk. Of course, they might also see it as Donny has 2 right handed offense minded defensemen that he might want to move (Faulk and Dougie). Plus, he might want to move a right handed defense minded defenseman (TVR). Or, he might want to move any of 6 depth defensemen. Or, Donny might not want to move anybody until the trade deadline. And he doesn’t have to do so,even then.
Hmmm!
It has been said on this site that we are in the same position as we were with Skinny.
Really?
Skinny had let it be known that he wanted to leave (and for good reason). He was very angry with our management. He had a no movement clause which weakened our position considerably.
So here we had a player who was a head-case. He could limit our options and did so. Oh! And by the way, he had a background of 4 concussions. A REAL head case who came with injury concerns. We were lucky to get what we got.
I don’t see any similarities. I don’t see the influence of an impulsive owner here. I see what I have come to expect from Donny, Roddy and Tommy. Well planned, calculated moves that promise to improve my fan experience.
Go Donny! Go Roddy! Go Tommy! Yay!
I agree. If the team deals Faulk, it will be for more than what we received for Skinner. Two totally different situations, two different players.
Skinner is a clown defensively, and did not play the right way. Good for him, he scored 40 goals or whatever, but look where the Canes landed after a year without him. Enough said.
Teams crave RHD, especially capable top 4. Faulk is just that. Dougie is just that. Whoever is dealt, if anyone, the team will get value.
Of course, if we kept Faulk for the season I would be excited. That would be some top 6 defensive corp.
A very unpopular opinion of Skinner, or at least it was among Canes fans a year ago. I can’t say that I disagree.
Frankly, Faulk isn’t that far away from Skinner. Faulk is very talented. He can play offense and defense, but doesn’t seem to be able to do both very well together. He probably needs a change of scenery. He holds a lot of cards as it applies to a trade. Unless a team is desperate due to injuries Faulk isn’t going to bring much as a rental.
Both Faulk and Hamilton have the ability to be very good top 4 defensemen. Both also have big holes in their games. If you have paid attention you can plainly see why Hamilton has been traded so often in his young career, and it has nothing to do with museums.
Here’s what I see happening, boys and girls. We now have a glut of NHL proven players at virtually every position. And, in case nobody has noticed, we have all this and only have to make a couple of internal changes in order to be cap compliant.
As the vagueries of training camps strike, what with injuries and disappointments, desperate GMs will come a-calling.
My beloved Canes will be in a position few teams ever get to enjoy.
Earlier this summer I said that we could go into the next draft with more than the 12 picks we had last draft. I think we just might get there.
As Ron Francis would say, “I like this group.”
1) really good value. Remember how defense was the knock on Hamilton. Roddy makes players accountable, and they all like their coach. I bet Gardiner improves his defense. Particularly if paired with Pesce. I think this is a tremendous add. We now have a potential power play QB. I was bummed about de Hann but I think we are probably even better now. We could have the best defense in the NHL. Very excited for this year. It is things like this which will start to fill the seats. And players want to come here now.
2) I think you start him in the third pairing. I see zero problem with having 5 top 4 D. TVR is not that far from being there also. It will be a big battle for the #7 spot. I do suspect we will see some of Fleury, Forsling or McKoewn traded. We will loose them to waivers. The training camp battle will determine who stays. Maybe two of them stay until TVR gets back. Do not trade Faulk. He is very valuable. He may be willing to take less next year to be part of this. I see no reason to trade any of our top 5 D. We do not ant cap to bring back a Hugh end forward. Why would a trade make sense now.
3) I expect a trade to occur for one or 2 of our waiver wire D some time mid training camp. By that time management will see who is performing after summer training. There will be other teams needing D and they can’t wait around for beginning of the season. There will be takers for the D when we plan on trading and we will get some draft picks.
I meant to say we could loose them to waivers. I do not see that happening. Not every team will wait until they hit the waiver wire. Somebody will pick them up prior to that. These guys are NHL ready.
Matt – I am going to disagree with your assessment of the motivation behind the CdH trade – although effectively this is CdH for Gardiner, but that is opportunistically and not by intent. CdH was moved, as I understand it, to create cap space so that the Canes could match what was expected to be a MTL offer sheet for Aho without knowing what the amount would be. Saarela was the sweetener. I do not believe at all they moved him because of the shoulder injury risk – it was purely cap space and the best deal they could find to clear cap space.
I do think it puts Faulk at risk (and Faulk over Hamiton). Both Faulk and TvR are UFAs at the end of the season – as a one-year (or partial year) rental Faulk holds higher value. And Waddell indicated that initial talks with Faulk in the summer did not go well. We are not going to let him go for nothing – and we are not going to sign him for 7M+. And with Faulk gone, Pesce can move back to his natural right side. Fleury slots in as 3LHD with Bean pushing for that spot, and McKeown is your right-side call up, until he isn’t. Until Faulk is gone, however, Pesce can play on the left which pushes Fleury/Bean back.
I don’t think it necessarily hurts Priskie because it makes it more likely that a RHD will go some time this season.
What it does say to me is that O/M/C wants NHL-experienced d-men even with defined and limited ceilings than taking chances with younger d-men, some of whom may well have exceptional ceilings. If people are complaining about Ned not getting a chance, it is time to raise the roof about opprotunities for Fleury, Bean, Priskie and McKeown being limited by signing a 29-yo d-man to a 4-year term. The Canes – where high-ceilinged, young d-men go to grow old…
Could this be the Canes going all-in on analytics. I will preface it by saying my industry/company are doing something similar and the initial response is that the numbers must be missing something. But the result is usually that a good algorithm doesn’t have our biases so is usually better able to describe reality.
In any case Evolving Hockey has a Wins Above Replacement model. Over the past three seasons Gardiner is #9 for all defensemen in the NHL. Pesce is 3 and Slavin is 18—when they played together in 16-17 Pesce/Slavin was the only pair during the three year period where both ranked in the top 3 for an entire season.
That would suggest (based on one analytic model—I believe the Eloving Hockey folks are close to Tulsky and may even have been collaborators at one point) that the best use for the Canes top 2 defenders is to keep them together.
The question then becomes how to utilize Gardiner to maximize the strength that the model identifies. Well # 26 out of all NHL defensemen over three seasons is TVR. The analytics would indicate that many of us have underestimated TVR. The “common knowledge” that TVR is not really a 2nd pairing D-man (skating, reaction time, etc.) is strong. What if that is merely our biases.
Could Slavin/Pesce and Gardiner/TVR be the best use of top-4 D-men. According to WAR that would give the Canes two top-10 pairings in the entire league.
Two points: 1) This sounds far-fetched. But as I mentioned, in my business there is often a lot of head-shaking about models not reflecting the “real world.” It lasts until the models outperform the human experts. 2) I am sure Tulsky has multiple other measures. If the majority of those numbers actually support WAR, then the Canes defense could take another step up.
Should WAR be the path to follow, then both Faulk and Hamilton can be moved. Also, Fleury/Forsling/Bean/McKeown/Sellgren can audition for the third pairing.
The acquisition of Gardiner may be simply a good value addition. It could also be the signal that the Canes have fully entered the Brave New World of analytics.
I honestly think they’ve been all in for a while now. I’m sure Tulsky is right up there with Waddell in terms of organizational clout since Dundon came in.
It is a mistake to say analytics do not have biases. Everything has a bias and understanding that is the first step to using any tool to figure things out.
I don’t see why any of this makes it harder to move Faulk. Gardiner is an LHD. We still set up as Slavin-Hamilton / Gardiner-Pesce / LHD-Faulk. A huge return isn’t necessary for Faulk, but that ship sailed when we didn’t trade him a year ago. Guys with one year of term left don’t tend to command much value. At least we’re set up for the aftermath. I truly do not understand how people are managing to find stuff to complain about here.
Tell me how the Canes are any worse off by signing Gardiner than they were before signing Gardiner? The answer, it doesn’t. Too much ado about nothing dreaming up problems before any problems have arisen. Seems like some fans have gone from complaining about how cheap management was in going after players and trying to improve the team to management is doing too good of a job stockpiling excellent NHL level players.
There is no reason IMO for any Canes fan to be pessimistic about the moves the Canes have made in the off season. But, if you insist, you don’t have to dream up all the what if’s I have read above to manufacture a bad season for the Canes. A bad knee injury to Aho or a defenseman, a concussion here or there, a goaltender going down with a groin injury…I could go on with these more likely problems but I think just these few make my point in my opening statement. The signing of Gardiner won’t have a negative impact on this team.
Look, I enjoy reading what all of you contributors have to say, but after 9 seasons of pure hell waiting for a good Canes team to hatch finally last year, I’m ready to ride high and go into this season expecting another playoff run thanks to TD, Donnie, Roddie, and the rest of the gang. My overall assessment is “they seem to know what they are doing.” If we stumble in October and November, then I’ll become a naysayer again.
Totally agree RR, well stated.
Even if things don’t start full throttle, it would be hard to be a naysayer with this lineup or the effort put in by TD/DW/ET, etc. I even think there is another move (or two) left — whether it’s Faulk’s situation, the surplus of young defenseman no longer waiver exempt, and having a 3rd goalie on a 1-way contract. There are still a few things to be sorted out for sure.
Think about how boring and offkey – this place would be if we all held hands and sang “Kumbaya”! 😀
Besides, Matt started it all with his thoughtful comments on this signing! LOL!
Amen Red! I was thinking we had too many d last year. I really like this team and hope we don’t trade faulk or anyone. Let’s let this group go!
Adam Gold is not a fan of the signing (at least not if it means trading Faulk):
https://www.wralsportsfan.com/canes-addition-may-lead-to-subtraction/18620916/
He makes a few good points, the forward core is not noticeably better than last year, not without significant progress from younger players, and the d core with JG in and
Faulk gone would likely be worse.
JG’s one significant strength is quarterbacking the powerplay, which Adam does not talk about but is a huge need for the team.
Just like with Skinner, I don’t see a benefit in giving Faulk away for a pile of Pu to the first bidder, rather. Let him play and either take a hometown discount if the team does well or let teams bid for his services at the deadline come playoffs.
Again, the Marlaux deal continues to make absolutely 0 sense to me.