Victor Rask is first up in what will hopefully be a May full of individual player report cards that both assess their 2016-17 season and also look forward to 2017-18.
After being a bit late today, my hope is to try to post one ‘report card’ per day in time for lunchtime reading, so please grab a sandwich and stop by, and if I miss a day please remember that it is the off-season. 🙂  I did a late-night writing binge into the wee hours of the morning to get ahead of the schedule, so I should be able to hold schedule for at least 10-12 days. My tentative plan is to work through the forwards first in random order based on what I feel like writing and then follow up with the defensemen and goalies.
Victor Rask’s starting point for the 2016-17 season
Victor Rask had a strong 2015-16 campaign that saw him take a significant step up from 33 points in 2014-15 to 48 points in 2015-16. Along the way, he solidified himself in the slot next to Jeff Skinner and just generally took a step forward in his sophomore season. For his effort, he was rewarded with a 6-year $4 million per season contract that figured to lock him into a top 9 slot with the Hurricanes for the foreseeable future.
Victor Rask’s 2016-17 season with the Carolina Hurricanes
With multiple new forwards joining the team, the lines had the potential to be jumbled, but he found himself in a familiar role centering Jeff Skinner’s line in training camp with newcomer Lee Stempniak on his right side.
The newly-minted trio was good in preseason and started hot in the regular season. Rask scored in all 8 games in October and finished the month with an impressive 4 goals and 6 assists for the month.
In trying to get multiple lines clicking, November saw Coach Bill Peters shuffle lines a bit to try new combinations but Rask still spent most of his time hitched to Jeff Skinner. Rask slowed from his torrid scoring pace but still put up better than hoped for scoring totals of 17 points in the first quarter of the season and then 14 points in second quarter putting him on pace for a 60-point season.
But the winter saw Rask’s game and especially his offensive production trail off. He managed on 6 points in the third quarter of the season before rebounding with a slightly better 8 points in the final quarter of the season. The 28-point full-season pace in the second half of the season was sub-par and looks slightly worse even when one considers that he spent a good portion of that time with Jeff Skinner who was on fire at the end of the season.
More significant than the top line statistics was how Rask faded into the background and played long stretches of hockey seemingly in invisible mode and without making a noticeable impact. He was not horrible, but he was not noticeably good often enough either. When the dust settled on the 2016-17 season, Rask finished with 16 goals and 29 points which was 5 goals and points short of his 2015-16 season.
Not to be underestimated is a subtle but significant positive in terms of his place in the lineup and therefore match ups year over year. In 2015-16, Jeff Skinner and Victor Rask were able to lie in weeds a bit as a third line and saw somewhat easier match ups because of it. With Eric Staal and Kris Versteeg gone, the Skinner/Rask duo were suddenly elevated to be the Hurricanes top scoring line and faced tougher defensive match ups because of it.
I would not classify Rask’s 2016-17 as a disaster, but he did not take another step forward in his third season as many hoped he would, but playing in a higher slot does at least partially offset any disappointment. Another positive is Rask’s ability to stay healthy and in the lineup. He has missed only four games through three full seasons in the NHL.
Grading Victor Rask
Graded as: A top 9 two-way forward, ideally more of a top 6.
Grade: B. He came up slightly short of his 2015-16 season which is disappointing for a third-year player still with upside and room to grow, but he did adequately, even if not spectacularly, fill the role he was in.
Looking forward to 2017-18
Very likely, Victor Rask will continue is his comfortable role as wing man for the Jeff Skinner flying show. Rask’s cerebral two-way play and ability to play comfortably in a support role without the puck on his stick much in the center position fits well with Skinner’s style of play. Though I think it is likely that Rask will stay paired with Skinner what could change is where they slot. If Francis adds a high-end scoring forward and pairs him with Sebastian Aho, it is not impossible that the Skinner/Rask starts to see a few more lesser match ups again depending on which line is hottest. Ideally in 2017-18, Rask continues to play his quiet role as part of Skinner’s scoring leadership. In 2017-18, hopefully Rask also boosts his own scoring total modestly and can find a higher gear compared to the second half of the 2016-17 season in terms of being a more noticeable difference maker on a regular basis.
What say you Caniacs?
Is a B about right, or would you rate Rask slightly lower based on his lackluster second half of the season? Or would you rate him slightly higher based on stepping into a higher slot in 2016-17 and holding his own?
What are reasonable expectations for the 2017-18 season for Victor Rask?
Do you like him in his familiar role next to Jeff Skinner or would you consider trying him somewhere else in the lineup?
Go Canes!
I think in some ways, playing with J. Skinner can be difficult and for Rask, being clipped to Jeff’s hip can be a hindrance. Skinner is in my view, essentially the equivalent of a one on one player in basketball. He scores goals, but he doesn’t really make those around him play better. I wouldn’t say great vision is one of Skinner’s attributes, he’s solely focused on the goalie and net and often doesn’t see teammates with a better opportunity to score. He’s also not a sniper in the true sense (i.e. Stamkos). There are one-timers for sure, but most of his goals result from getting a pass, make 2 – 3 moves and drive the net and score from 10′ in. I’m having trouble coming up with a player with a similar style. Is there a stat that keeps track of no-assist or single assist goals? He has to be up there with the league leaders. So regarding Rask, in 2015-2016 he scored more off of rebounds and dirt laying around the net, Skinner left overs. If he’s going to get back up into the 60 point range, he’ll have to get back to that style of play. I think he can do it but if not, they’ll have to find someone that can have more of a net presence.
I think this is accurate and significant. I also think that the ability to make others better and/or have others make him better is what pushes his scoring ceiling even higher.
I also think that this is why Rask is a great fit for Skinner. I’m not sure a pure playmaking center would really boost Skinner that much. And maybe even weirder it might not work at all. That kind player usually likes to play with the puck on his stick and then dish for scoring chances, but except for on the power play that is not generally how Skinner scores.
I think you are being far too generous in your grading curve here, Matt. No higher than a C. He simply wasn’t good in the last half of the season – he wasn’t bad, he just wasn’t good. And you could tell from his exit interview that he knew it and was very disappointed. This is a C, maybe a C+ to recognize his performance early in the season when he was something of a force.
I can see how his year can be termed a disappointment, but statistically Rask didn’t have a bad year. His 45 points was good for 129th in the NHL. If you consider Top 90 to be 1st line quality (3 forwards x 30 teams) then Victor Rask was very much in line with solid 2nd line production.
Was he consistent? No, but neither was Skinner and who’s not going to give Skinner and his 37 goals an ‘A’, show of hands?
The stats don’t lie, Victor Rask took a slight step back from where he was the previous year. He’s not a 1st line player, but was stuck in a 1st line role, playing against the elite defenses. To expect Rask to ever get more than 60 points in a season is probably too much. He is what he is at this point, which (by any reasonable statistical analyis) is a serviceable 2nd liner/extremely good 3rd liner.
The fact of the matter is this. Victor Rask/Jeff Skinner/Lee Stempniak is one of the best 3rd lines in the whole NHL, and if we make the moves to allow them that role, that is a VERY good thing for the Carolina Hurricanes. If we grade him on who we asked him to be, yeah give him a C. If we grade him on who he is, and the role he’ll play game in-game out for the better part of the next decade, then he absolutely deserves a B for a solid overall season.
Fogger. Well said. I think Rask had the season we should have expected. However, expectations were raised by his own play the first 8 games and by the play of Aho and Lindholm, then Skinner the last half/quarter of the season. I am not sure it is fair to say he disappeared so much as his production disappeared. But some of that was being snakebit. For instance, in the March Columbus game he was originally credited with tying goal and when it became apparent it hit the Dman’s skate, he didn’t get a point even though his positioning and physicality were more responsible for the goal than Skinner’s shot. Then a few games later in the Detroit makeup, Howard make the save of the season against Carolina on a Rask shot where he again was well-positioned and aggressive. HIs shot% was done 50% from the year before, so it was more than just the two I mentioned.
And as tenininumee pointed out, Skinner does not produce goals for others at a high rate. In fact, he is only Cane with more goals than assists except for Nordstrom and McClement.
Rask was a solid B.
raleightj…Fair assessment too. I will be curious to see how you grade the other players to see if you are just a harder grader across the board or if we are just different on Rask.
I look forward to that as well – both reading your reviews, which I always respect, and offering my comments. I think I may be a harder grader – but I know who I would give the “A”‘s to – and I think you and I will agree on those for the most part. Victor could have done so much more this season – it was there for him.
This is a tough one for me. I can buy in to all of the previous comments and certainly think they are appropriate. My problem is this. While I would have him graded down a half step or so because of the long dry spell during the latter part of the year, on the other side of the coin this guy went out there every night and played whatever role he was required to play with the net result being he sure did not hurt us on the ice. This IMO is a player who needs to play with players he is familiar with to get the best results offensively from him. In other words with the same line mates. I say this because his effectiveness offensively is “maximized” with him setting up other players with scoring chances and mopping up the rebounds and misplays as a result of the shots of others.
To me Skinner is the perfect line mate for Rask providing Skinner takes a little more time to get the puck to Rask when Rask is open. Rask will find the open areas I feel, and when he gets the puck in these situations he has proved he can put it in the net.
As an afterthought for consideration (in other words the following may have no merit at all), but it was my feeling that for most of the last season Rask played as if he wasn’t completely over whatever shoulder injury he had suffered in the prior season. If that was the case, then if he is now over this then we are in for a great season from him.
I felt that Rask seemed a little slow, or maybe just hesitant, at times… w/o looking at his defensive stats, I just came away with the impression he was less aggressive than before. Did anyone hear about any injuries (a leg maybe)? Maybe I’m being fooled by his smooth skating style…? I can’t remember who it was, but several years ago there was a real good player who skated so effortlessly that it was hard to tell he was really fast…! No doubt that fits a lot of guys, but Rask is pretty smooth. I’d give him a C+, he can do a lot more, me thinks.