Matt’s editorial note: With the buzz and optimism around Canes hockey this summer, Cory could not help but return from his summer break way early. There are no guarantees in professional sports (Canes fans know that too well lately), but I hope you share his optimism and energy. I do.
A storm is coming. Can you feel it?
Disclaimer: Author is 100% allowed to use cheesy clichés in his ridiculous excitement for the coming of hockey season
The Carolina Hurricanes have had one of the best offseasons in recent memory this summer. The problem is, the offseason means nothing and we all are just bouncing in our seats in anticipation of seeing if the 2017-18 Canes can deliver on the ice. But seeing as that’s two months off, let’s just keep distracting ourselves with the bright situation, shall we?
Yay, Our First Real Post-Cup Identity!
Let’s embrace the fact that, for the first time in years, the Carolina Hurricanes have an identity. For years, it seemed like the team had none, or at the very least, was something like “They Whom Are Beholden to Family Staal.” (There are worse identities.) The truth as we’ve all come to painfully know, is that we coasted on our Cup win for about 8 years. As names like Brind’Amour, Whitney, Cole, and Williams disappeared, so did the identity. For years it was just sitting there hoping Eric Staal and Cam Ward could turn it back to their Cup days and bring us a taste of the playoffs. Then for several more years, it was the painful process of rebuild, a gigantic twisted puzzle that Ron Francis and Bill Peters had to piece together. So many years.
But then, at points throughout and then at the very end of the 2016-17 season, we saw our first glimpses of a new identity. One of a faster, puck dominant team. The pain in the ass, that no team wants to play against. As a future At it’s best, we saw a team that could shut down anybody not named McDavid (8 Hurricanes finished among the Top 50 in the NHL in takeaways), while hoarding the puck for minutes on end, the other team frantically chasing us. At it’s worst, it was one that struggled to score and could be easily doomed by shaky goaltending. Still, for the last month of the regular season, Canes Nation was very intrigued. Then came summer.
All Five Acquisitions Upgrade the Hurricanes Identity
While many (this writer included) had visions of first-line forwards and epic trades racing through our minds, after Ron Francis promised an active offseason following the Canes elimination, the Hurricanes were actively committed to maintaining the current roster, and its burgeoning identity. Every single trade and signing of the offseason enhanced our puck dominant, defensive juggernaut identity:
Scott Darling was brought on to try his hand at solidifying the goalie position. If he plays even remotely close to how he did in Chicago, this is the single biggest upgrade for the team, done with a single 4th round pick.
Trevor van Riemsdyk will likely provide a huge boost to the blueline depth as a massive upgrade to Tennyson, Dahlbeck and Hainsey. Offensively, he outscored all three. Defensively, he was on par with Hainsey, but is far younger, with room to grow.
Justin Williams was the perfect free agent signing for the team identity. A Corsi juggernaut, known league-wide as one of the hardest players to play against, a veteran of multiple Stanley Cup champions…Oh, and he regularly scores around 20 goals a season.
Josh Jooris is overlooked as a signing, but could prove to be a very solid fourth-line player for the team. His value as a purely defensive forward who can score a couple goals is solid. Paired alongside Joakim Nordstrom, and the Hurricanes final offseason acquisition, could form a very potent shutdown fourth line.
Marcus Kruger has terrible scoring numbers. Everyone knows this. Except that he more than doubled Jay McClement’s offensive production last year, while playing far superior defensive hockey (Dude picks up Selke votes). He’s a crucial addition to this team.
So no, we did not get Matt Duchene, Alex Galchenyuk or any of the dozens of scoring forwards we all speculated about. We did get five players who fit perfectly into this new identity, while (on paper) serving as significant upgrades over the players they replaced. These additions (again, on paper) predict that we’ll see a slight increase in goal scoring as well. While many Caniacs may be concerned that we can’t score enough goals, very recent history has proven that this doesn’t matter as much if the other team doesn’t score either. Note to certain hockey fans: If the other team does not have the puck, they CAN NOT score. (Respect, Steve Smith) This is a perfectly valid strategy for winning games. And one that’s won many Cups.
Puck Possessing, Defensive Juggernauts Win in Today’s NHL
It’s no accident that the Columbus Blue Jackets had 108 points last year. They are a defensively focused team with a very solid goalie, and a relatively ho-hum offense. They had some bad luck, in the form of a twisted NHL playoff system that matched them up with eventual Cup champs and perpetual ‘Defense Wins Cups’ denier Pittsburgh, in Round 1. Columbus’ identity (and a brutally bad Bobrovsky) failed them. Pittsburgh scored four or more goals in all but one of their 4-1 series win. Still, it doesn’t mean the offensive identity beats the defensive every time. It just means Crosby and Malkin make their own rules.
Carolina Hurricanes fans need to ignore the Pittsburghs, Torontos and Edmontons of the NHL. They somehow lucked their way into multiple transcendent offensive talents. That’s not realistic for this team. The Columbus method is. Just last year, Columbus proved that such an identity can get a team to the playoffs. Here are three recent examples of how a defensive identity can win a team a Stanley Cup.*
*By Order of Completely Biased Opinions of Similarity to the 2017-18 Hurricanes
2013-14 Los Angeles Kings
The prime example of how shutdown teams can win a Cup, the Kings finished 25th in the NHL that season with 206 goals scored (For reference, the 2016-17 Hurricanes scored 210). They won because they led the league with only 174 goals against. FYI, that’s a team GAA of 2.12. They had just four 40-point scorers that season. They won led by an elite defensive forward (Anze Kopitar) and the gritty, veteran play of Justin Williams. Good role model to follow, I’d say.
2010-11 Boston Bruins
Coincidentally, this team was also led by an elite defensive center (Patrice Bergeron), and possessed no elite scorers. What this team had in abundance, was depth. The 2010-11 Bruins boasted eight 40-point scorers, and a dominant starting goalie who took a very long road to the NHL. Yes, it would take a couple years for our players and prospects to develop anywhere close to this level of offensive depth, and yes, it’s likely too much to ask that Scott Darling is the 2nd coming of Tim Thomas, but hey….it could happen.
2014-15 Chicago Blackhawks
So, they did have Toews and Kane, and the Hurricanes have no one near that caliber offensively. Still, their stars had a very down year offensively and the Blackhawks relied on their defensive foundation to drive to another Stanley Cup championship. Oh, and lest we forget this little fact: There are six members of the 2014-15 Hawks set to don the Hurricanes logo in 2017-18.
Counting Down to October in Carolina
Fellow Caniacs, there are rightfully many skeptics among you. It’s been a long time since the club played any meaningful May hockey. But this isn’t some fleeting rush of excitement, built over a single summer. We saw the first indicators last summer, with the arrival of Sebastian Aho and Teuvo Teravainen, following the rise of young defensive stalwarts Jaccob Slavin and Brett Pesce. In 2016-17, we witnessed the resurgence of Jeff Skinner, the second-half breakout of Elias Lindholm, and the first glimpses of Aho’s magic, all of it built around the consistent puck-possessing force that was Jordan Staal. Couple these advances with the aforementioned five major roster upgrades from this summer, a ridiculously loaded prospect pool, and the best salary cap situation in the league, and you will realize that no, this isn’t some afternoon thunderstorm worth of excitement. This has been building; a darkening ominous force slowly forming together, just off the radar. As we count down to that first storm siren blast on October 7, we are excited because we Caniacs know what the rest of the league is about to find out. A storm is coming.
Cory. Thank you for writing this. One, it is a great take on where the Canes are after all the additions. Two, I was trying to write something about the team’s identity based around Giveaway/Takeaway and Penalties, but yours is so much better–seriously.
The only thing I would add is that the Canes are also evolving into an offensive team. Aho, Lindholm, and Teravainen all have potential to increase their scoring. The “ridiculously loaded prospect pool” you mention is full of players who will fit the team’s identity WHILE significantly improving goal production. In fact, over the next few years the Canes’ fourth line might be a shutdown line that scores 30 or more goals (Foegele, Smallman, Lorentz, Mattheos, etc).
Yes, there is reason for all the excitement you displayed and more. Great post!
Thanks ctcaniac, I really really appreciate that! I’m glad you noticed the takeaways as well, I almost missed that. I hadn’t even thought about how good the team was at stealing pucks, until I was looking through defensive stats, looked at the top 50 and saw Cane after Cane.
I fully agree as well that the team has some impressive offensive potential. If Lindholm blossoms into a 60+ point scorer, Aho keeps being Aho, and Teravainen takes a step forward…..that’s just too awesome to think about right now. I don’t think any rookie, outside of Haydn Fleury, has a good shot at sticking with the team long-term this year, but if anyone can pull it off, my money is on Foegele. Talk about another player who can excel on both sides of the puck.
The expectation to make the playoffs in 2017-18 is very clear, but this team is going to be good for YEARS. (Silent prayer to any deity who has control over player health)
Thrilled that the excitement this summer pulled you back early. Great article! So do you want to take all of August now? 🙂
Thanks Matt!! No 🙂
Cory, you so eloquently state what I feel as well. The improvements we made this summer make us a playoff team this year. What we have in the system will more than fill our holes in the future. If they don’t, we have the Cap space and prospect pool to fill any holes. Throw in new ownership that can spend more money and we are talking about a serious long term run for our team. The misery is over!! Can’t wait for October!!
I am going to take something of an exception to this article – primarily based on the phrase “…and then at the very end of the 2016-17 season, we saw our first glimpses of a new identity.”
I would say we saw our “first glimpse” back in 2014-15, even with the losing record and a mere 71 points. That was the season marked by a large number of one-goal (or one-goal and an empty-netter) losses. In only a few games were we blown out. As I liked to say back then were not “Oiler-awful” or “Buffalo-bad”. We were frequently an out, but we were almost always a tough out. Teams didn’t want to play here – I remember hearing that many times from commentators.
And the story was much the same the following season – the “Canes are better than their record”.
We had a weak roster, overall, but started almost immediately playing the tough-to-beat, high-possession game with Peters.
Interestingly enough, perhaps, 3 of the top 50 TA in 2014-15 and 4 of the top 50 TA in 2015-16 were Canes, so that was building too.
It is easy to get frustrated with the team’s lack of success in terms of won-loss record and lack of playoff experience. I get that. But this isn’t a sudden revival or a new identity that is only now apparent. It is a process and it is a process that has been evident on the ice for the past 3 seasons. I, for one, have been a big fan watching it develop.
As an aside I was actually more disappointed and frustrated with the team’s 6-week collapse this past season than the struggles the previous two seasons – it seemed as though the lessons from the previous two seasons had been completely forgotten. But a good close to the season was a big boost, and our talent level stepped up this off-season.
I am keyed about the season ahead.
tj. The collapse was Feb. 7 through March 3–so actually only four weeks. January was more the earthquake prior to the collapse as the Canes won four in a row, followed by losing 5 (three ugly ones) but with a recovery of three straight victories to end January then begin Feb.
That combined with losing 10 of the first thirteen left too few games for the team to earn enough points for the playoffs.
I don’t see either streak of poor play recurring this season because of the off-season improvements. So even the negatives from 16-17 leave room for optimism.
I start the “collapse” on 1/17:
1/17 CBJ 5 – Car 1
1/20 Pit 7 – Car 1
1/21 CBJ 3 – Car 2
1/23 Was 6 – Car 1
That was one ugly stretch of hockey, ct.
The stock market crash terminology for the three wins on 1/31, 2/3, and 2/4 is a “dead cat bounce”. 🙂
Good points all. Perhaps i should rephrase. “At the end of last season we saw our first glimpse of an identity capable of winning us a lot of hockey games, with the pieces we had in place” lol.
I do agree fully though. This isn’t new at all, this has been growing and as such should not be dismissed as mere enthusiasm. But then, we stuck around through the dark times, so we’re well aware of that long process. Glad its almost over. Thanks for reading!
The three teams you mention Matt were astronomically superior to the Hurricanes at the forward position. All of those teams were not just defensive juggernauts but also offensive ones. I appreciate your optimistic articles Matt, but part of the Hurricanes problem with perpetual mediocrity starts with having higher expectations. Let’s start with the Boston Bruins team you mentioned – their offense was headlined by Bergeron, Kessel, Seguin, Marc Savard, Nathan Horton, David Krejci, even a greybeard Mark Recchi. They had two #1 goalies (Thomas and Rask).
That Blackhawks team has Toews and Kane who are in a league of their own compared to the Hurricanes forwards. You dismissed their names as if two players do not add a significant gap between the Hurricanes and the Blackhawks. The reason we now have 6 of those Blackhawks players is because their organization knows the value of their TOP players and how the players they’ve given to us were more easily replaceable. We don’t HAVE those top players yet, even if we are gaining nice shiny replacement level and depth players. Let’s not kid ourselves and think that guys like Nordstrom, Kruger, and TVR are the reasons the Blackhawks have won 3 cups recently. Those are the guys who are replaced on a year to year basis due to the cap crunch and they find other guys who fill those same roles admirably.
The LA Kings had a franchise centreman, dman, and goalie. The closest we have to that is franchise dmen. I won’t compare Darling to Quick at this stage yet, even if the gap doesn’t turn out to be that big performance wise. Jordan Staal actually compares very similarly to Anze Kopitar, oh wait, that is Jordan Staal = career worst year from Anze Kopitar. When Kopitar is playing his best, he is a whole line better than our Jordan Staal (being a true #1 centre instead of a pseudo #1 / elite #2).
I don’t naiively believe that the difference makers the Canes need are outside the organization (e.g. Duchenes, galchenyuks etc.), so in that sense I am optimistic like many who post here. The stars we need may very well come from the group of Aho, Necas, Kuokkannen, Gauthier, even Lindholm. MAYBE. What I do know is that the Hurricanes expect to make the playoffs next year, and I do not see any of those listed players becoming a superstar next season, therefore if Francis believes the prospects he has accumulated will be the long term solution for this team, then we need MORE patience and the rebuild will continue, and we will miss the playoffs next year.
Patience while we wait for the next wave? Then we miss playoffs. Or, carefully sacrifice some of the future to make a key trade. Eventually Francis will have to grow the courage to make a deal like the Hall – Larsson or Johanson – Jones swaps.
It wasn’t me. The higher level of writing ability is the biggest clue. 🙂
First off thanks for reading! I can totally understand your skepticism, but I think you’re underestimating our young forwards. We have a lot of young, hungry, talented players that are in prime position to take the next step forward (and are definitely comparable in ability to Columbus forwards at the very least). If they do, along with our defensive upgrades, we have every chance to make the playoffs. If they don’t our cupboard is still full to bursting with tradeable pieces. But I feel like too much focus is put on the lack of starpower on OFFENSE. We didn’t build for offense. We built for DEFENSE. We can win with defense.
It does depend on the pieces gelling together, but there’s every plausible reason to believe they can take the step forward and grab a playoff spot.
If we do not, you’re welcome to come find me in section 320 on the day we’re eliminated and i’ll buy you a beer to help drown the sorrows of another season lost.
That said, just reach me on Twitter at @coryfogg when we do make it, and we’ll share your crow in celebration 🙂
Cory. I share your belief that the Canes will make the playoffs. I actually think both Nashville and Ottawa this past season support your arguments. Neither had a McDavid/Crosby/Malkin type, but won by being disciplined. The Senators took Pittsburgh to 2 OTs in game 7, so one good bounce would have derailed the Penguins. While that does not diminish the definite talent advantage of having Crosby/Malkin/Kessel, it does support your main points.
One of my early comments on C&C suggested that Carolina is similar to the NBA’s Spurs–not necessarily the most exciting or talent-laden team, but committed to a system with very good if not elite talent. That sure sounds like the Canes for the next 5-10 years.
The collapse(s) were BAD, the reason for them has been analyzed to death… my question is who thinks they really know what was wrong, and what move(s) did (or will) fix it?
My take (guess) is a two-fold problem, 1st the goalie didn’t stop the PUCK… but COME ON…a lot of bad things happen before he has to make numerous saves… we notice ALL GOALS, but frequently miss what causes them…SOOOO I HAVE TO THINK THAT THE COACH IS NOT BLAMELESS! He should not let multiple mistakes continue w/o correction… When he criticized Lack, I thought BETTER LATE THAN NEVER…other guys should have been berated several times before.
This year I’m cautiously optimistic (not as euphoric as many here). Besides Darling (should be an upgrade), we have other potential improvements, but until we see guys in action I’m not totally convinced. However, I think our BU (WARD) was the wrong guy to keep…Lack might be a better choice, and maybe they should have got a new BU TOO!!!
One important thing to consider is that Kruger and Jooris were brought in to play on the 4th line. Not play on the second line with Jordan, like in years past. Putting players with actual offensive talent on the 2nd line will net us a few more goals.