In what is becoming pure Ron Francis’ form, today, on Friday around or after dinner time when most people are heading into the weekend, the Carolina Hurricanes made a big announcement. The team signed recently-acquired Scott Darling to a 4-year contract at $4.15 million per season.
With the move, the Hurricanes have moved aggressively and early to add one of the best goalies available this summer. And in the process, the move addresses the Hurricanes biggest offseason need on May 5, a full 5 months before the start of the 2017-18 season. As I said on Twitter, there is still work for Francis to do this summer, but acquiring and signing Scott Darling fills the biggest need and very clearly shifts Ron Francis from opportunistically building for some undefined time in the future to playing to win now.
And that my Hurricanes friends is an incredibly good thing!
Scott Darling catch up
I covered most of the angles on Scott Darling when he was acquired from the Chicago Blackhawks for a third-round pick almost exactly one week ago.
My first impressions article profiled Scott Darling and discussed a couple interesting angles on the trade itself.
I followed up with a part two on the Scott Darling trade that considered flight risk, looked at the broader Hurricanes goalie situation that now includes three goalies and came pretty darn close guessing his contract at either three or four years at $4 million per season.
Along the way, the Sunday Canes Chronicle offered four external articles on Scott Darling and the Monday Coffee Shop polls and discussion questions were also dedicated to Darling.
A few new Scott Darling thoughts
The contract
As noted above, I had the contract pegged at either three or four years at $4 million per season, so today’s announcement lined up pretty well. I had a slight preference for three years instead of four simply to reduce risk. This is not commentary on Scott Darling specifically but rather my opinion that there just is no sure thing in any goalie, so shorter contracts are preferred. That said, this is a fair deal, not an unreasonable term and probably what Francis had to do to get a deal one. It is a positive.
Sorting out the goalie position – Darling, Ward, Lack, oh my!
As I said previously, I think the path forward goes like this…Scott Darling obviously gets protected in the expansion draft which therefore exposes Cam Ward and Eddie Lack. If Las Vegas does a few deals NOT to take other goalies from other teams (i.e. Grubauer, Korpisalo, etc.), there is a slight chance that Ward could fit as a solid veteran and early leader as Las Vegas starts to build its culture. But more likely neither Ward or Lack are claimed. I think Francis would then try to include Lack in a trade to Las Vegas (would need to pay in futures to do that) or as part of a broader deal elsewhere. If that does not happen, I think Lack gets bought out before the start of free agency on July 1.
So when I net it out, I think the most likely scenario is that the Hurricanes start the 2017-18 season with Scott Darling and Cam Ward as the team’s goalie tandem.
What’s next?
With the biggest offseason need already addressed, Francis can turn to the other big one which is adding a top 6, scoring forward. The second one is even more challenging. Whereas there actually were a good number of potential goalie options available, adding a top end forward will require some combination of black magic, a pry bar and maybe downright thievery.
Francis spent a little bit more than the original budget I had for the goalie slot, but in the process, he addressed the top priority and spent only a third-round pick to do so. That leaves Francis with plenty of assets to begin working on other needs.
It is important not to expect Francis to suddenly address the forward need in May (though it would be welcomed). As I said above, the forward need could be much tougher to fill.
A clear transition to playing for the 2018 playoffs
It is not as if Francis was not trying during his first two summers as general manager. But his cautious and opportunistic approach to trades and free agency were much more the work of a general manager shopping for value and building for the future. The aggressive move to go get one of the (if not the) best option to address the team’s biggest need is a stark contrast to previous summers. Francis put a stake in the sand and made it clear that he was playing for 2017-18.
There are obviously no guarantees, but this Carolina Hurricanes fan now has a coffee can with a piece of masking tape on it labeled simply “2018 playoff money.”
Go Canes!
For trades, Jason Zucker and Jakob Silfverberg may be available if the expansion protection math in Minnesota and Anaheim respectively works out in a way that their teams may lose them for nothing. Then there’s Matt Duchene or Gabriel Landeskog. Since Colorado got screwed out of a top-3 draft pick in the lottery, maybe they’d like a prospect to help with their rebuild. Free agent-wise, Evgenii Dadonov is reportedly considering coming to North America from the KHL. He didn’t sign with the Canes back when we had his rights, but maybe the prodigal son can be convinced to return. Though we’d certainly have the cap space to accommodate a higher end player, I don’t suppose the Canes would be taking a run at T.J. Oshie…or would they? 😉
Vegas just signed Shipachyov and Dadonov has been his linemate in the KHL. I expect Dadanov will be (correctly) signed by Vegas – giving the expansion team a great start to a first line.
I hope the 4-year term speaks volumes. I agree that signing Darling is about making the playoffs this coming season. In fact, most of the commenters on C&C have made some variant of the point that “with average goaltending” the Canes are a playoff team. So let’s give GMRF the credit he is due without forgetting that the program all along has been building a long-time serious contender.
To that end, I think the top priority should be getting some extensions signed this summer–Slavin and Pesce. Because Carolina could quickly go from tons of cap-space to being cap-constrained in the next 2-3 years. Despite being a small-market team that has been rebuilding, Carolina will have to pay market prices for all the talent that will be either RFAs or UFAs in the next three years (Slavin, Pesce, Lindholm, Hanifin, Aho, Skinner). My concern is that with LV in the mix, even the RFAs could see some serious inflation. And if Skinner has two more good seasons, his price in 2019 will likely be in the $8M range.
So I think the organization needs to spend now on extensions to make sure they avoid getting in a bidding war. Because as much as another scorer is needed for next year, the core is needed for the next 5+ years.
I am in favor of a trade that brings someone who is still on a first contract (I have said I like Hanifin for Ehlers if Winnipeg would be willing). The other option is someone who will accept 2 years. Maybe Williams back in NC for 2 years/$6 to $7M.
Outside of those options, I am not enamored with getting a scoring forward that will likely cost upwards of $5M per year. That would mean making some tough decisions in the not distant future.
If there is another Stempniak-like bargain to be had, I trust RF to find it. He made a big bet on a goalie to lead the team into the playoffs. As fans, we should be mostly satisfied. As I have said there are priorities 1 and 1A.
1) Make the playoffs 1A) Keep the core of the team that has an extremely bright future
I agree. And with the Expansion draft, and the sheer number of picks, we should be able to get someone good, without having to sing a FA contract that handcuffs our ability to sign the core later.
Agree 100 percent. Keep this core together. Don’t overpay for a stud forward now…. keep the core. Think I’ll get a shirt that says that:)
That is the challenge that sits in front of Francis. Trick is finding a team that has a high-end forward who for whatever reason is shopping him (rare) and is in rebuilding mode with a preference for futures not NHL-level players (some but not all).
Agree about keeping core in general. The burning question for the rest of the summer is who is considered the core and does Francis do one deal to upgrade at forward.
In your Part 2, I commented that I didn’t think that Darling would sign for anything less than 4×4. Boom!
I think it is a fair price and a fair term. I think if you are going to make such a bold move to trade a 3rd round pick for negotiating rights you have to followup with an aggressive bid/contract. Done.
And because Darling signed with a partial NMC he cannot be exposed – correct me if I am wrong. Gives us two goalies with NMCs (can we protect both? – or do we have to change out protect model? – although I bet Wardo will waive his NMC for the good of the team) – Lack gets exposed. Vegas may like Lack – popular on and off the ice. He will be better wherever he goes than he was with us. He would be a solid choice for a team trying to build a fanbase.
Cam didn’t get a NTC/NMC with his current contract. We can trade/expose/demote as needed. Although if I was GMRF , I might wait till after the IIHF Worlds, before making my final goalie decision(Seeing if Lack looks strong post injury).
Maybe I am wrong, but I have read multiple times that Wardo has an NMC. And we can only protect one goalie. That will be Darling.
Nice call RaleighTJ! You’ve hit a couple lately. Does your crystal ball show any scoring forwards in our future? 🙂
RF was serious. 3rd round pick and then signs him in 1 week. Gosh, is that refreshing!!! I agree CT, credit where credit is due.
Matt, I believe when it comes to buying out contracts you only get 3 shots. We used 2 already. I would rather see Lack as backup then Ward, only because of future improvement potential but do understand the importance of Ward in the locker room. I do not think we need to buy Lack out if Vegas did not take him. Why not have him go to the AHL? Maybe he puts up big numbers and somebody wants him in a trade come playoff time or we decide to keep him longer. We could even bring him up in case of injuries. His contract cost is not that big (we have plenty of cap room next year) and I am not sure we want to burn our last shot at buying out a contract. You never know what the future holds and I believe in keeping your options open. It may not be that bad to put Lack in the AHL and not buy him out.
I am not that high on Ned (so far). Booth could be the next good one. So, we may be light on goalies for the checkers next year anyhow.
I agree we should get some extensions done for Slavin and Pesce now, rather then waiting for their costs to go up later.
Forwards, I would love to see RF go for T.J. Oshie. He is still young enough. Think of the difference in shootouts. Radulov or Hanzal could work. Williams short term could work also. I am not crazy about trading “any” of our young defense. I think those are harder to find then forwards. If we trade, trade draft picks, not players we are already developing. Also remember that teams will be scrambling and may make deals because of the Vegas expansion draft. It could open up some opportunities we are not thinking about. Potential shakeups in Montreal and Colorado also.
We now have one good goalie. The question is: Now what?
What’s the next move?
I’m not happy with being content, sooooo what makes the most sense?
Do we settle for an average BACKUP? Who is the best choice for a BU? When the Canes decide the next move… we can have a reasonable hope for a satisfactory goalie tandem……or not!
Kudos Ron! Kudos.
Puckgod, I’m not entirely sure there is a backup outside of Marc-Andre Fleury and possibly Mike Condon that I would trust more than Cam Ward, if he’s willing to take the role. Not only would we keep the locker room leadership, but even in the down years Cam has still played his best hockey under the brightest lights and those lights are coming.
And Matt. All I’m saying is that there are Vancouver bloggers lobbying to bring back Lack. All I’m saying.
Fogger. Well said. I have been replaying some of the games from earlier in the season. The November stretch at home had Cam playing at an elite level. In case anyone forgot Cam was in goal and in four games held Capitals to 1 goal, shut out San Jose, beat Canadiens 3-2, then finished off the home stand allowing just 1 agains Winnipeg.
In the season review of coaching Matt stated that one of the areas that was not handled well this year was over-using Ward. He played 22 straight games. While he has never been a backup, he still has the ability to be more than serviceable. And given how important he has acknowledged that being in Raleigh is to his family, I don’t see the “demotion” as being much of a issue.
If Vancouver will make a trade for Lack, then everything is coming up roses.
Boy, you all have really covered this topic and done it well. I’ll just state where I stand on the issues discussed with the understanding that not all of you will be in agreement and that’s okay.
1. Goaltending. Darling is the number 1 goalie. Either Cam or Lack is the backup. No buyouts. Odd man out gets traded (Lack to Vancouver) or gets placed on waivers and if clears goes to Charlotte. Nothing counts in the competition other than on ice performance. In the club house means nothing in this competition.
2. Core signings. RF concentrates on resigning core. Makes no sense to let players who have shown they are some of the best in their positions to go elsewhere and then try to replace them in a smaller market like ours. A lot of star players want to play in a major market (New York, Boston, LA, etc.) and won’t consider a smaller market when they are free agents. Most all teams are resigning their current top end players because it is easier to do than to start all over trying to interest a free agent to come to your franchise.
3. We need another top line scoring forward. I don’t care if he is a one year contract signing, 3-4 year signing or what the terms are as long as the terms reflect the player’s true value to CAROLINA. Winning makes it easier to keep players and easier to attract other players. There is nothing harder than being a general manager in a small market with a losing reputation or record. No one wants to come and most don’t want to stay. If they do stay it is usually because of their contract term or their off ice situation, not their real desire.
Addendum: Based on my reasoning, Ron Francis has done an outstanding job as a general manager working with a small market with a losing record and reputation, on a smaller budget, lack of fan interest, and always drafting in the middle of the pack with no top three draft picks. The Lord would have had a hard time being as successful given these constraints (but if He’s willing to try I’m in and sorry Ron).