On Saturday, the Hurricanes mustered a good bounce back win over the Flyers after consecutive losses to the Capitals had upset the team’s prior rhythm.
Setting the stage
Unfortunately, failure to help from the Hurricanes coaches alumni club on Saturday night minimized the gain from Saturday’s win. Columbus beat Peter Laviolette and Nashville. And Montreal beat Paul Maurice and Winnipeg. That puts the Hurricanes one step closer to the finish line but only with the same one point lead over both Columbus and Montreal for the final two playoff slots.
As such, Sunday’s game in Pittsburgh is just as big as Saturday’s home game against Philadelphia and the margin for error continues to be virtually non-existent.
The opponent on Sunday is a Pittsburgh Penguins team that had played its way slightly above the fray but came back to the pack a bit with a loss in Nashville on Friday. With that loss, the Penguins are now up only two points on the Hurricanes and would fall behind on the tiebreaker if the Hurricanes win on Sunday. So by the end of Sunday night, the Hurricanes could be as high as sixth (third in the Metro) or as low as eighth.
Prior to the loss to Nashville, the Penguins had won three straight and picked up points in five straight. But the Hurricanes have won two 2019 meetings first with a 4-0 win on February 5 and more recently with an exhilarating 3-2 shutout win on March 19.
My watch points follow.
‘What I’m watching’ for the Carolina Hurricanes versus the Pittsburgh Penguins
1) The effectiveness of the Hurricanes forecheck
The 4-0 win in early February saw the Hurricanes forecheck drive play for much of the game. Against the Penguins, I really think the tipping point is the Hurricanes forecheck. If the Hurricanes can hem the Pens in their own end, that both generates offense and decreases the amount of defense that the Hurricanes must play. If on the other hand, the Pens can advance the puck, Crosby comes more into play. Olli Maatta is back in the lineup, but at least as of Friday, the Penguins are still without Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang. Against the undermanned Pens blue line, the Hurricanes had been able to attack aggressively and get results for doing so. On Sunday, I will be watching to see if the Hurricanes can get their forecheck going.
2) Goaltending versus seeking ugly goals
The most recent Canes versus Pens match up turned out to be an odd goalie duel. Matt Murray was great stats-wise facing and saving a bunch of shots. But in my opinion, Murray was as much lucky as good as he spit out a number of juicy rebounds. At the other end of the rink, Petr Mrazek was solid and in my opinion a bit more sound. Curtis McElhinney figures to start on Sunday, but the story is the same. If this game ends up being cautious and tightly-played defensively, the scoring chances will be minimal. In such a game, even a single soft goal can be the difference. So on Sunday, I will be watching to see which teams gets and advantage in goal. In addition, I will be watching to see which team can successfully get bodies and pucks to the crease at the same time with the hope of scoring an ugly goal or two.
3) Top to bottom solid play
On the road, the Penguins will have the ability to dictate match ups. That likely means the Penguins are able to find some shifts for Sidney Crosby away from the Canes best defenders. As such, the Hurricanes will need to be sound and solid from top to bottom. With van Riemsdyk and de Haan having a couple tough games, they will need to rebound, but more generally the entire lineup needs to be sound.
4) Special teams
This time of year, special teams advantages can often decide games. On Saturday, the Hurricanes power play rebounded a bit with two goals in only two tries. That less one power play goal against netted the Hurricanes a one-goal advantage which was the difference in the game (not counting empty net goals). On Sunday, I will be watching to see if the Hurricanes special teams play can at least holds own.
The puck drops at 5pm on Fox Sports Carolinas with John, Tripp and Mike.
Go Canes!
Something tells me that it’s all going to come down to the last game of the season in Philly.
You mean the last game will determine are 2nd or 3rd.
Realistically, even if they miss the playoffs this has been a successful season. I’ll still be mad they didn’t but that is the fan in me.
We got 4 games left, Canadiens have 3 (I’m assuming Columbus will breeze thorugh the remainder of their schedule pretty easily, it is way easier than that of both the Canes and Canadiens).
Canadiens play Tampa, the Caps and Tor, none of them easy games, but they did beat the Jets and they got some real desperation in them. I still think they’ll only manage 2 out of the 3 games, which means they’ll only manage 4 more points, if they win all 3 they manage 6.
We got Pens (winnable but difficult), Tor (ditto), Devils (which we should win, though the Devils have been difficult for us this year, in fact we have yet to beat them) and the Flyers (which we could sweep this season, though the games have not been easy).
Assuming we collect 4 points and the Canadiens only 4 we win.
Assuming we collect 4 points and they get 5, I think the tie breaker belongs to the Canes (head to head).
If we get 4 and they win all 3 remaining games we kiss the playoffs bye bye.
So the stats are on the side of the Canes, manage 1 point between today’s game and the next and then win the two remaining games and playoffs are a certainty.
Better yet, beat the Pens and challenge for the third in the metro (though the Pens schedule is pretty favorable), either way the Canes only need 2 points out of 3 games, two of them winnable if they beat the Pens.
The playoffs are ours to lose.
If we win today we move into Metro-3. If we lose today and CBJ wins we fall back to WC-2.
Every game we have played this season has mattered – and I remember saying back in the 2nd or 3rd week of the season that I was then hoping our inept special teams costing us victories against WPG and TBL wasn’t going to matter one or way or the other by the end of the season.
Welp… 😀
Well, it wasn’t to be today.
I think the guys are feeling the effects of a grooling March schedule, the team looked slow, out of synch and lethargic today.
I am noticing a few players in particular that no longer seem to have it:
FErland – no goal in 13 games. Is he hurt, is he frustrated that the Canes did not consider his asking price, is it both, or is this an example of his famous fading down the stretch? He was a fantastic player up to February but his disappearance has left a gaping hole in the top 6. I would’ve tried to reunite the FAT line for the third period to see if we could get a spark.
Aho – something like a single goal in 10 games, maybe a few more assist. When your #1 center is not at the top of his game the team suffers. Is it an injury (he looks a step slow), is it a coincidence that he does not yet have a deal? I find it weird the two playrs who have had the strongest expectations of being extended are the ones who are showing visible signs of slowing down.
Walmark – just not seeing his top game right now. He needs to put it together, hopefully he will improve as much over the summer as he has improved at lower levels, he’s got potential but as a third line center we need more scoring.
Faulk – slow and out of synch today, could be an injury.
I think saku should’ve been drawn in today, he is rested. I was going to say I think the Canes should have called up one or two Checkers, but the Checkers just played 3 games in 4 days and are probably as gassed as the Canes. I think for Tuesday’s match up they might want to consider calling up Gauthier and sitting Ferland. Ferland isn’t doing his thing right now and maybe he’ll get a message plus two days of extra rest.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see our old friend Fleury play in Toronto.
NOt a bad thing. If he plays well he may be a bargaining chip over the summer to obtain one of the Toronto players.
I wish the Canes had added some scoring at the deadline, their plan of the Ferland rental has not paid off.
But all is not lost, it’s down to the canes and canadiens to fight it out for the last playoff spot,. We are ahead by a point and have a more favorable schedule.
Ferland is not the kind of player to create his own opportunities. He needs some kind of playmaker on his line. There is no playmaker on the Wallmark, Martinook, Ferland line. It’s basically a second fourth line.
Moving Svechnikov has been good for him, but bad for several other forwards.
I generally like Brind’Amour’s approach of leaving lines together versus constantly reshuffling, but I wish he would try some things to get Ferland going. He had a couple decent games and looked like he might get going with Teravainen’s playmaking and Staal’s puck possession.
If Brind’Amour wants to stick with Svechnikov there, then a good plan B would be to play Ferland with McKegg. As much as Wallmark is capable defensively, he just does not generate offense for his line mates. McKegg has at least shown flashes of having some offensive upside but might also be held back a bit flanked by two rookie wings whose strengths are not generating or finishing offense.
Before his injury and the arrival of Niederreiter, Ferland looked like a decent finishing power forward (not significantly different than Niederreiter). I think Brind’Amour should be trying something to see if he can refind that.
Horrible game for a team controlling their own destiny. Flat, uninspired, you name it…pathetic. I hope they are angry and determined Tuesday, otherwise season over.
The team has coughed up a sizeable lead down the stretch. Now CBJ has leapfrogged us. I don’t buy we have a more favorable schedule last 3 games. We shouldn’t even be in this position. MTL has a brutal schedule (yet they just owned the Jets in Winnipeg and took it home) and I’m sure they will win final 2 of 3.
Canes should be asking themselves, what will the Canes do? Otherwise time for Top Golf!
The team controls it’s own destiny. And Columbus is the hottest team in the league right – by golly, they are playing like they actually want to make the playoffs! LOL!
Canes have looked gassed for quite some time. The games they have won in the past couple weeks have been with inconsistent efforts and crazy good goaltending. You can’t win long term like that. The last complete game I remember is the St. Louis game.
Can’t say I disagree with you *grin* I’m getting too good at being diplomatic. No matter the situation, the Canes looked nothing short of pathetic today.
True, the Martinook/Walmark/Ferland line is just not a good line, they don’t make anything happen.
Move Ferland to the top line, Nino down to the third, maybe try Saarella and move Martinook down to the 4th or Poturolski and give Walmark a game off.