If you missed it, Friday’s Daily Cup of Joe had a ‘state of the Canes’ after 77 games that includes more detailed context relevant for Saturday’s game.
After consecutive losses to the Washington Capitals, the Hurricanes surrendered most of their cushion but still enter the final five games of the season in playoff position. With a step down in competition, the time is now for the team to seize the opportunity in front of it and end the long playoff drought.
That journey starts with a matinee match up against the Philadelphia Flyers on Saturday at PNC Arena.
The Flyers are two points away from being eliminated from playoff contention and are not really in the chase at this point. But by no means are the Flyers a bad hockey team. The team still has a good amount of high-end talent and has beaten the Maple Leafs, Penguins and the Islanders twice in the month of March.
But more than anything, this game is about the Hurricanes digging down deep inside, putting a quick end to their losing streak and seizing the opportunity to control their own destiny down the stretch. If the Hurricanes play an aggressive and solid game, the team will be fine. If instead, they are hesitant and cautious because of the magnitude of Saturday’s game, it could very well bite them.
My watch points follow.
‘What I’m watching’ for the Carolina Hurricanes versus the Philadelphia Flyers
1a) Attacking mentality
Critical for the Hurricanes right now is not to freeze up and try to play a super cautious game. That is not the team’s style nor is it the team’s strength. The Hurricanes are at their best when they are attacking on the forecheck and hounding the puck in all three zones. More than anything, I will be watching to see how the Hurricanes approach this game early on. Do they play aggressive and attack? Or do they look cautious to the point of possibly being tentative?
1b) The forecheck
Part of the Hurricanes challenge against the Capitals was that the Caps largely handled the Hurricanes forecheck. The Hurricanes did have bursts of success (best was probably the second half of the second period on Thursday), but overall the Hurricanes were unable to generate significant offense from its forecheck. Without that catalyst, the Hurricanes offense sometimes struggles to generate enough good scoring chances. So related the the intensity and attacking mentality, I will be watching to see if the Hurricanes can get back to dictating play with its forecheck against a slightly lesser opponent.
2) Goaltending
The Hurricanes netminding has been a strength since the start of the new year. In a game with an extra dose of pressure, the Hurricanes will need the same steady and solid play to help weather the storm if and when a few mistakes are made. I will be watching and hoping for just more of the same in net.
3) Leaders leading
This time of year, a team’s best players need to lead the way in big games. Largely due to Nino Niederreiter being staked out between the face-off circles all game, the first line came really close to having a huge game but had to settle for a goal and a number of near misses. If players like Aho, Teravainen, Staal, Williams and others have one more scoring burst in reserve, now is the time to spend it. The time is also right for the blue line which has been a strength to put forward a couple of its best efforts. On Saturday, I will be watching to see which players rise to the occasion.
As I said on Twitter after the loss to Washington on Thursday, I really think Saturday’s game has the potential to define the 2018-19 season and a crucial first step toward putting a results-based (read playoffs) stake in the ground saying that this team is in fact different from recent years.
I think Saturday's @NHLCanes game is the game that ultimately decides if this team truly is different from recent years.
Win and the playoff push resumes after brief interruption.
Lose and it's more of the same.
I think #Canes take care of business with 4-2 win.#TakeWarning
— Canes and Coffee (@CanesandCoffee) March 29, 2019
The puck drops at 1:30pm at PNC Arena. If you do not have a ticket, find one.
Go Canes!
Off topic: Adam Fox. Harvard lost last night and decision time for Fox is here. This article sheds a new light (at least something I had not heard before) on the consequences of his signing with the Canes now. https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2019/03/snapshots-svechnikov-maatta-fox.html Were Fox to sign and play even one game he would burn one year off his ELC (an incentive to sign) and he would be eligible for the Seattle expansion draft (a disincentive to signing him). This would seem to complicate matters for Waddell and “the committee”. An amateur try out contract for the AHL signed now, with a NHL contract signed in the summer could avoid the exposure to the Seattle expansion draft. Good for the Canes. How that would sound to Fox might be something else. We should know soon.
One correction, surgalt. If Fox signs he burns the first year of the ELC – he doesn’t need to play – ELCs for NCAA playersburn the first year for a partial season. If he plays an NHL game he is subject to the expansion draft.
The former, however, is really important – his ELC expires after the 2020-21 season and he can sign, probably for much bigger money than coming out as a UFA next season. He just has to agree to play in the AHL this season (not that we have room for him in Raleigh now). And playing with the Checkers puts him right in the middle of the Calder Cup playoffs – great for his experience and development. He would be so much better prepared for the NHL next season that I can’t see any reason why he wouldn’t jump on it.
Its the year of the ELC that has the most value for Fox, plus he has nothing to prove in college hockey. He will sign with canes or be traded (to the rangers).
Adam Fox is from Long Island. He graduated from Pioneer HS in Ann Arbor before attending Harvard and then attended USA Hockey development. He followed another Long Islander who went to Pioneer HS and the USA hockey development program. Is he is following the footsteps of Charlie McAvoy of the Bruins? If so, he will sign an amateur tryout contract with the Checkers this weekend and an ELC with the Canes this summer.