After a much-needed 1-week rest for everyone except all-star Justin Faulk, the Carolina Hurricanes return to action Wednesday night in Calgary with the first of 3 road games. If the Canes are going to make another push to close the 4-point gap (my math adjusted for games in hand) that now sits between them and the #8 spot in the Eastern Conference, I think February is the time. I wrote a post entitled “What are the chances?” over the break that talked about the Canes prospects and also mentioned the importance of February.
I think February is crucial for 2 reasons:
1) A quick read on whether there is a second wind
With a number of key players trying to make the jump from a much shorter college hockey season to an 82-game NHL grind, early February should tell whether a week lay off was enough to catch a second wind or if the next couple months will just be real hard for the kids. The team in general had some real flat efforts in January that showed symptoms (too many horrible breakdowns) of fatigue. The first week or 2 of February should be fresher. If the second wind shows up and equally importantly if it seems to last could tell us what we get in March.
2) The best time to rise
The February schedule is the most favorable in terms of winning in bunches and making up ground. After 3 winnable road games to start the month, the Canes play 8 of 10 at home including some key weekends and the 10-year Cup anniversary games next weekend that should inject extra energy into the building and the team.
But you have to play the season 1 game at a time and sitting at the front end of it all is a road match up tonight against the Calgary Flames. Coming off a ‘rising up early’ 2014-15 season that saw the young and rebuilding Flames burst into the playoffs and even advance to the second round, the team has come back to Earth. The Flames now sit 11 points out of a playoff spot at 3 games under .500 and look more like a trade deadline seller than a playoff contender. Despite having what seems to be a strong core on the blue line, the Flames are struggling in terms of goals allowed and also on special teams. The Canes pounced on a combination of loose defensive play and mediocre goaltending to the tune of a 5-2 win in Raleigh just before the all-star break.
This is a game that is winnable and needs to be won if the Canes are going to push further up the standings in February.
With that, here is ‘what I’m watching’ for tonight’s game against the Flames:
1) Signs of a second wind
The Canes had multiple games in January in which they were clearly just out of gas. After a week off for everyone, my hope is to see a rejuvenated Canes team skating with pace and cleaning up the high volume of mistakes that plagued the losses in January.
2) Ryan Murphy’s return
We will not know for sure until news from the morning skate (actually mid-afternoon Raleigh time), but the expectation is that the recently recalled Ryan Murphy will be in the lineup for Brett Pesce who was ailing before the break and thought to be the reason for the recall. Murphy looked okay at the NHL level early in the season and found the AHL more because of others rising up than him falling. The hope is that he can quickly get his feet under him and play solid hockey at the NHL level. My guess is that he would slot next to Noah Hanifin on the third pairing which is where he spent the majority of his NHL time earlier, so there should be decent chemistry and familiarity.
Though his recall is clearly driven by current need at the NHL level, I wrote a few days ago about the possibility of his NHL return potentially also showcasing him for trade in this post HERE.
3) Seizing winnable points
As noted above, my adjusted NHL standings math has the Canes 4 points out of a playoff spot right now. Down the stretch, the Canes will see a mix of games against good teams, lesser teams, home, away, travel disadvantages versus travel advantages, etc. Some games fall into categories of winnable games in which the Canes should be the favorite. Against a struggling Flames team with no travel/schedule challenges leading into it, this is clearly 1 of those games that the Canes should win. They MUST win the vast majority of these games to push up the standings, so this game marks a first measure for the team’s ability to methodically crank out wins when it should.
4) Sound play on the blue line
Lost in the Canes mostly finding a way to win was a significant step backwards by the blue line in January in terms of volume and severity of turnovers and defensive breakdowns. The Canes mostly got away with it, but the more repeatable formula for racking up points in the NHL is to be decent in net and sound defensively such that the team is always in games and at least picks up OTL points even on bad nights. I like the Canes chances to continue their strong play, but I think playing much better defensively is required for it to happen.
The puck drops at about 9:30pm Eastern Time on Fox with John, Tripp and Michelle.
Go Canes!
