The second set of ‘games’ for the Canes and Coffee Summer Event 2015 will go live late Friday morning. If you missed the kickoff on Monday, the event is basically an NCAA tourney-like bracket that pits Canes greats against each other to determine the greatest or favorites in Hurricanes hockey history. More so than an objective evaluation and ranking, the goal is to celebrate and enjoy Canes history during the slow days of August.
You can sneak preview the 1st round matchups for the Unsung Heroes “regional” HERE.
————————————————————————————————————————————-
With my mini-advertisement aside, I wanted to tackle something a bit fuzzier than the usual individual player analysis and similar.
In today’s digital world teams and their executives are mic’ed up all the time. There are TV interviews, written publication interviews, team events and web site content and even social media. General managers like Ron Francis basically have an assortment of channels to broadcast whatever they want and also sometimes the challenge to be careful how they broadcast information and what not to broadcast at all.
Ron Francis has an early track record as playing things pretty close to the vest. He does his share of interviews, but very often leans heavily on clichés and generalities thereby limiting the ability to read into his strategy or plans. We get a lot of things like (IMPORTANT: THESE ARE EXAMPLES NOT DIRECT QUOTES) “We will do what is best for his long-term development” in a situation like Noah Hanifin. We get things like, “We are happy with our current roster but will consider adding players if they can improve our team” about the possibility of signing more free agents. We get “we are in discussions but there is no required timeframe” on Eric Staal’s contract situation when he is pressed for a status on discussions.
Big news Canes things for which I feel like I have virtually no hint from Ron Francis include:
–Eric Staal’s contract situation.
–Whether the team will look to add another forward or two.
–Whether there is an internal salary budget for 2015-16 and what it is.
Ron Francis’ tight-lipped approach is challenging for media (and “pretend media” as my wife calls me) because in a reporting role, they are left with a bunch of quotes and sound bites that really say very little and few clues for trying to figure out what it really means. Personally, I like Francis’ approach for two reasons. First, I think it puts him in a better position to do deals and build his team. Second, one of my favorite things to do over the years is to play armchair GM both writing up what I would do and also what I think the GM will actually do. So in a world where the reported facts are minimal and fuzzy, what I enjoy doing becomes the best game in town Canes coverage-wise.
But I digress…
I think the interesting dichotomy of Francis’ approach is this. While he seems incredibly tight-lipped about roster and NHL stuff, there seems to be more information coming out of PNC Arena these days in terms of prospects. The team has been raving much of the summer or how thrilled it is with the defensemen in the system. One day there is chatter about how thrilled management is with Trevor Carrick’s play in his first year in the NHL. The next day the team is head over heels about the rapid progress of Jaccob Slavin. There were comments about how improved Haydn Fleury looked in rookie camp. And so on.
So how do you explain this? Does Ron Francis have multiple personalities with one assigned each to NHL stuff and another to prospect stuff? Sort of. In this new digital media world of the NHL, I think the smart teams are using the indirect channels to basically market their players. You never know when. You never know which team. And you never know what they will be shopping for. But at some point as a GM you will be engaged in a trade conversation with another team that involves futures including draft picks but also prospects. A primary source of information when making these deals will be scouting obviously. But scouting is imperfect and does not cover everything at 100%. With the volume of leagues and players within them it is impossible to have a detailed read incorporating every bit of ice time for every player in the league. And in assessing players, there will be an element of how a player ranks and slots for their current team. Like right now, Jaccob Slavin rates as high as #3 on the Carolina Hurricanes depth chart for defenseman despite never playing a game above the college level. Is some of this ranking earned and completely legitimate? Sure. Am I saying that the Hurricanes organization completely controls where independent media sources rank him? No. But with much of the media rankings heavy on research and unable to do the pure version of rankings driven soley by watching games and catching absolutely all of them, is it possible to seed and influence the research with some marketing spin. I think it is. But does this marketing rhetoric actually have any impact on other teams’ rankings of players? I do not mean to say that teams are relying on media analysis for their scouting. But they hear and read things too, and I have to believe there is some influence on their rankings. When they hear repeatedly how the Canes are high on Slavin, that Slavin is progressing well and then see his is put in a first pair in the AHL, I do think that boosts the ‘want’ for that player.
I also think crafty teams could play some games with this. Let’s take Roland McKeown as an example. The Los Angeles Kings were deep on defense in their system. The team had 3-5 players who were on decent tracks toward the NHL. Obviously the Kings track all of these players very closely and should have the best information out of anyone as to what their prospects are, how they rank amongst each other, etc. For sake of argument, let’s say that somewhere along the way, the team’s scouts become less high on McKeown such that he maybe falls from 2nd to 6th on the team’s internal prospect rankings. Would the team be well-served to put even the tiniest hint of this out publicly? Or would they be better served to keep this information quiet? ……….Or better yet, why not pump McKeown and see if you can get people to buy it – literally. If he is playing completely miserable hockey in the juniors a quick phone call to someone who scouts the league would ferret that out quickly. But most things are more shades of gray than black and white. So if I am the Kings last winter and knowing that I might need to toss in a prospect or two at the trade deadline, I play him up and then protest bitterly (for pretend) when someone puts his name into a deal. And then I chuckle to myself when I pretend to begrudgingly include him instead of four other players that I value more highly. To be clear, I have not seen enough of Roland McKeown to suggest that he is actually a real example. I just used him for illustration.
We have yet to really ramp up discussion here (which IS a goal at some point fairly soon), but I would love to hear others’ thoughts on a couple things related to this:
1) Does anyone else see Francis and the organization as seemingly more open on discussion of prospects relative to other stuff?
2) Does anyone else get the sense that this marketing game is increasingly going on in the NHL?
3) To what degree do you think it is possible to persuade teams whose primary and preferred source of information is their own scouting departments?
4) Who thinks this is crazy conspiracy theory stuff from someone who needs a bit more sleep and is also just fabricating Canes stuff in the middle of a news-less August?
Go Canes!
While I certainly think this might be a possibility, I am not sure it is going to be very successful. For example, last year as the deadline was approaching, we heard many reports of Francis and other scouts and GMs at our games or other teams games, sometimes at the AHL affiliates, and at CHL games with the idea that they were scouting for potential trades. Maybe the hype gets a scout to a game, but I would bet that the evaluation as to whether or not to ask for him in a trade is based on the requesting teams own evaluation at that point, not on talk from the other team. Besides, if one team is doing it, the other teams will also and then they all loose credibility with each other over these pronouncements.
I can’t speak to other teams motives, but my guess is the reason you hear this “openness” surrounding the canes prospects when you don’t hear it in other Cane’s business areas is that it is not for league consumption, but for the fans. The ticket sales are down. Our budget and time scale for rebuild is a few years. You can’t really sell people on the chance for playoffs this year or the next (not specifically talking any calendar year, but generalities) so why not sell hope. Specifically hope in the new players that will be in the system. Sell them on coming out to see them get better as the play some games with the big club before going back to juniors or going back to Charlotte.
Or, it could be number four. 😉
I can’t think of a single reason not to speak openly and positively about your prospects. They’re 18 or 19 year old kids who they’re trying to encourage to keep working hard. If I’m that age, and I hear Ron Francis publicly single me out as doing good, that’s going to feel nice.
Their certainly could be some subterfuge, but, to me, it makes more sense they are primarily just trying to build these kids up. And if there are some secondary effects of fan excitement or increased value from it, so be it.
I do think it would be a weird strategy to openly praise your mediocre prospect while ignoring your better one. That’d probably make the better one feel lousy, and they are the one that the team wants to focus on helping more, I’d think.
Gamesmanship is all part of the GM’s job description. You do play up your prospects, especially those that you would make available for a trade. Personally, I don’t think that Ronnie has to do too much “polishing a turd” with our blueline prospects. From what I’ve seen recently they really are “that good”. I think they fall into 4 distinct tiers/categories:
Top Tier:
1. Hanifin
2. Fleury
3. Pesce
2nd Tier:
1. Carrick
2. Slavin
3. McKeown
4. Biega
3rd Tier:
1. Lowe
2. Rissanen
3. Ganly
4. Robertson
Put Up or Shut Up
1. Murphy
2. Jordan
I believe Francis would entertain a serious trade offer for any of the Tier 2 or Put Up or Shut Up guys. These guys aren’t on the block, but they’ve got varying amounts of value and packaged with another player or pick could yield an NHL ready forward prospect. Also Murphy and Jordan both have something serious to prove this year or they are likely gone one way or another.