I originally put this in the “Quick Hitters” for part 4 of my NHL trade deadline preview but figured it better to give this its own home.
Seemingly because of a degrading relationship between Karlsson and the Senators’ ownership and management, he suddenly seems destined to be traded if not during the trade deadline then during the offseason.
If the Senators are willing to accept a massive pile of futures the best time to do the bidding war might be now with teams possibly willing to pay more to have him for the 2018 playoffs. But if instead the Senators would like to receive an actual player or two in return for Erik Karlsson which seems reasonable for a generational talent at his position, then the Senators will be better-served to wait until the offseason when the bidding war could be bigger.
Meanwhile, the Carolina Hurricanes are eight years into a playoff-less desert and though they very much have a chance to end the drought, they are also very much in a dog fight that could end with a call for yet another of patience. But maybe more significantly than the need to become good enough to make the playoffs is an increasing feeling among many that there still needs to be a bigger change that jolts the culture, vibe, attitude or whatever other word you want to the challenge of pushing over the hump psychologically in addition to talent-wise.
Enter Erik Karlsson. Enter the Carolina Hurricanes.
Because of years of spendthrifty ways, budget limitations and then later a rebuilding project, the Hurricanes have to be about last on most people’s list of teams that might be in bidding for and potentially winning Erik Karlsson. But I actual think it makes sense once you consider both sides of the transaction.
From the Ottawa Senators side
Again, I have to think that the Senators would like to get more than a pile of ‘might work out’ draft picks back for a generational talent on the blue line. One issue will be filling the void left by Karlsson’s departure. The other is simply getting enough in return. In terms of filling the void, the Carolina Hurricanes could offer Justin Faulk. Faulk is not Karlsson, but he is a proven top 4 NHL defenseman who brings offensive ability. Faulk’s 55 goals scored since the start of the 2014-15 season are only four fewer than Karlsson’s total. Faulk is under contract for two more years after the 2017-18 season at a very reasonable cap hit of $4.8 million. And Faulk is actually two years younger than Karlsson. The point is not that Faulk is as good as Karlsson or an equal replacement. He is not. But if the Senators want to fill that spot in the lineup, Faulk represents much more than just chucking whoever there.
So that is obviously not a 1-for-1 deal. Then I think the way that the Hurricanes make it interesting is by adding Haydn Fleury. Fleury is a big skating skating defenseman who is only 21 years old and with a high draft pedigree and top 4 potential. And with most of a year of NHL play under his belt, Fleury trumps whatever other list of pure, unproven prospects teams might offer. He might be learning on the job to some degree, but right now Fleury is actually playing with Faulk in the top 4.
I will leave it to someone else to sort out what the other smaller piece are, but if the Senators are not keen on collecting a massive pile of maybes for 2-4 years from now, this starting point has to at least be interesting to Ottawa. There are no guarantees especially Fleury, but at least potentially, the Senators added a top 4 defense pairing which while maybe not equating to Erik Karlsson is a pretty good trade haul.
From the Carolina Hurricanes side
The biggest thing from the Hurricanes side is the increasing sense from many who track the team closely that something significant still needs to happen. The team is theoretically better in 2017-18 and looks it at times. But in terms of results, the team is worse and in terms of the fuzzy stuff mentioned above something just seems to be missing.
In addition, I have been clamoring since last May that the team desperately needed to add an offensive catalyst. The common version of this and the one I called out was a higher-end playmaking center. But because of his elite offensive ability, could Erik Karlsson do the same thing from the back end while also being the change agent that many think the team needs.
No doubt giving up a young top 4 defenseman and another young defenseman who is arguably close to being the same is a lot to give up in any trade. But then Erik Karlsson is not just any trade. At the beginning of the 2017-18 season, if one made a list of the most untouchable players in the NHL, Karlsson would have been high on that list. When strange things happen right now and the door cracks open to add a player like him, I think Francis has to at least take a chance, and what’s more I think he can do better than that.
Some will mention the very real risk that Karlsson flees to free agency after the 2018-19 season. But at a bare minimum, that offers two chances to take the next step and return to the playoffs and a good run of time for Karlsson to adjust to his team mates, the organization and the city of Raleigh before deciding if he wants to up and move again. Worth noting is also the fact that Justin Faulk’s contract runs only one year longer than Karlsson’s, so having to deal with a free agent defenseman in a few years time is not really something that is added versus the current situation. And finally for the two years, the impact is modest for the current year and next with Karlsson costing $1.5 million (actual salary) more than Faulk next year.
Again, I will leave it to someone else to sort out what other pieces make this trade happen, but part of it could be the Hurricanes taking Johnny Oduya simply to add another depth defenseman to fill Fleury’s spot with veteran help for the 2017-18 season before turning to younger players in 2018-19.
Shorter version: 1) The Hurricanes have assets to both fill Karlsson’s slot and add upside in the form of player who is young but a step or two past the pure prospect stage; 2) The Hurricanes need to do something to push over the hump – this could be it.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Once you get past the point that the Carolina Hurricanes have not historically been even in the discussion on deals like this, do you think this could actually have some merit?
2) What is the price it takes and would you do it? Is Faulk and Fleury enough or does there still need to be futures too?
3) What are the chances?
Go Canes!
There’s also talk that Ottawa may want to unload the Bobby Ryan contract (4yrs remaining with a $7.25M cap hit) as part of any Erik Karlsson trade. Given our double digit cap space, the Canes are one of a very few teams that could take on Ryan’s contract without needing to unload a contract of our own. Depending on how much value Ottawa places on clearing that albatross contract from its books, the Canes may not have to give up much in terms of players or picks to make the trade for Karlsson and/or another Sens player (*cough*Hoffman*cough*) work.
The question then becomes if the Canes would be willing to take on that massive Bobby Ryan contract. Obviously, north of $7M is a lot to pay a player with Ryan’s recent numbers and injury history…BUT he is still just 30 years old and during last year’s playoffs he had 15 points in 19 games so he still has some game in him. To get a player like Karlsson and/or Hoffman, I would argue it’s worth it to gamble on Ryan and his massive contract. Of course, our new owner would have to be okay with financing that (or be ok with buying out that contract if things go really bad).
Personally, I salivate at the prospect of a blockbuster “Hoffman, Karlsson, and Ryan for Faulk, Di Giuseppe, and a 2nd rounder” trade but unfortunately such a potential franchise-trajectory-altering move is one that would be grossly out of character for our current GM. But I do dream though. I do dream.
It would be out ofcharacter for GMRF, But not out now character for Tom Dundon.
I hear so much criticism of Ronnie. How do we know what set of influences he has been working under? We can assume that Mr. K had him shackled financially, but do we know what else was working to limit his ability to maneuver? Under what kind of conditions does he find himself operating now? We can’t know. And what of other conditions external? Has it occurred to anyone that a player might look at the Canes and see no grit,, no enforcer to protect the scorers and say, “No thanks. Don’t want to go there. “
Asking those who watch way more hockey than me….is Karlsson the same player now than he was prior to his foot injury incurred during last season’s playoffs? I remember reading a number of articles during the off season that intimated his injury was of a certain type that would require him to significantly adjust his skating to accommodate the newly relocated or grafted bones. Not everyone, including Karlsson himself, were confident he would be the same, explosive player post-surgery. I’m sure he’s till great, but is he as good as before the injury?
Both Karlsson and Ryan have No Movement clauses and I doubt CAR is on either player’s list. It is an interesting opportunity for someone and from what I’ve read and heard about trades involving generational players, the team that gets the player always wins the trade – the other team never seems to get enough return even though it may not seem like it at the time.
tenininumee asks the real question: is Karlsson the same player and worth it? I don’t know the answer.
I haven’t watched any Ottawa games, but the statistics show Karlsson is averaging 27 minutes the past five games and has 5 assists to bring him to 41 points in 54 games. He may not be the 75-80 point scorer he was, but as a 65 point D man he would be a big improvement for Carolina.
At first sight, I agreed with all of Matt’s 3 posts about the Canes’ need: a difference-making center or a high-scoring winger. But in looking further at the league, and especially the teams most like Carolina (Columbus and Minnesota, teams where the strength is a young blueline and the forwards lack any elite scorers), I discovered that other teams get significantly more point production from the D. So perhaps Carolina’s biggest need at the deadline is a D-man who can help the forwards produce offense. As good as Pesce and Slavin are, they have not added any real offense this year. Karlsson (even at the cost of Faulk and Fleury) would make Carolina a better offensive team.
Carlson and Ryan for Faulk and one of our forwards *cough, Rask cough) would be a good trade, maybe sweeten it with a second round pick.
For giving up both Fleury and Faulk I’d want Hofman included in the package. He’s been streky, but he brings more grits (the Canes have plenty of shrimp, but are missing the grits).
I’m not sure if Carlson is the answer, at first I thought this was just a bad idea, but Matt does some convincing once you read his articles, so it certainly has me thinking about it.
Karlsson isnt someone I want us to look at. I want Stone and only Stone. If we have to take on Ryan to do it, that might be more than TD wants to do. Ryan’s salary actually goes up next year and he still has 4 years.
If they would be willing to do Faulk, Rask, and Gauthier for Stone and Ryan, I would consider it. We’d be adding Stone’s salary minus 1 million to our total, between 5 and 6 million next season. Even with the consideration, Ryan soaks up an important roster spot for the next 4 years and more importantly makes it harder for us to re-sign players and improve the roster.
No to either Ryan or Karlsson. Go for Stone. Faulk, Gauthier and a pick. Tell them to recoup their offense from whomever they acquire for Karlsson.
Agree with dmiller. I highly doubt Carolina is on Karlsson’s list. That said, if I’m GMRF and Karlsson is interested, for as talented as he is I would smile and say no thank you. While injuries can happen to anyone, his type of injury history is something to be mindful of. Meanwhile, GMRF has done an excellent job building a defensive pipeline. I’d rather see what we have in Hanifin and Bean, even McKeown before we raid the cupboard.
Also agree with dmiller. Agree with live_free as well. Not interested in Karlsson at this point in his career. Not sure he is the same player and that he will hold up over time. If we’re going to spend that kind of money, and money is the only variable, I would much rather pursue Tavares and keep everything else I have. He doesn’t have the injury concern that Karlsson has.
I also don’t think a playmaking D is the answer to our problems. I still agree with you, Matt, that we need finishers. That seems to be our real issue. We get plenty of shots and plenty of high quality scoring chances. We just cant convert them. Karlsson doesnt fix that problem
natural–I would have totally agreed with you, until yesterday. There are just too many teams that are near the top of the standings that are getting points from the D. Tavares is pretty much on a team similar to Carolina–Leddy is providing more scoring than any of our D, but otherwise all the scoring is from forwards. I understand the admiration for Tavares, but in reality he and the Islanders are exactly where the Canes are. He helps others score, but an honest assessment would have to consider that JT has not helped the Islanders become a top 10 team.
When the Islanders have made the playoffs, Tavares has never been out of the second round. Contrast that with Karlsson last season. Now I agree that Karlsson’s injury is a reason for concern. But comparing Karlsson to Tavares based on their impact favors Karlsson. Karlsson was drafted in 2008 but first played in the NHL in 2009, the same year as Tavares. Ottawa has been to the playoffs 5 times, the NYI 3.
Finally, the Canes may have a top 10 center in Aho by 2020, which is when Tavares will be beginning to decline. While the D is young and improving, it is a stretch to think that Hanifin (who is really the only candidate on the roster) or Bean will be a 55+ point producer.
Until yesterday, I totally agreed that the team needed forward help, preferably a center who drives goal-scoring. But after a day of looking at the league-wide statistics, I am not certain. It definitely appears that having a D-man in the top 25 of D scoring is just as important.
What Erik Karlsson are you proposing to get in a trade. This year’s version is no where near what he was before his injury. His goals are way down and his plus/minus has wavered between minus 20 and minus 30. What are trading for? An out of date reputation? Why are we taking our eye off the ball? We need a top scoring forward!!!! There’s only one out there right now. His name is spelled P A C I O R E T T I. None of the other named mentioned will make much of a difference to the Canes when netted against what you al are proposing we give up IMO. RF took his eye off the ball last summer and didn’t get us a scoring forward and we still need A SCORING FORWARD. We don’t need another goalie, Bobby Ryan, Evander Kane, Galenchuk, etc. WE NEED A SCORING FORWARD. If we were willing to look at anyone from Charlotte, we might just already have one or two playing there.
I guess the flip side is which version of Justin Faulk are we giving up to get him?
His hat trick helped, but Faulk still is only on pace for 28 points despite a heavy helping of power play ice time. Faulk is minus 19 which is well below any other defenseman on the team, and has had enough tough nights over 2+ years now to ask whether he is really a top 4 or better slotted on a good team as an offensive #5.
I think there is actually a possibility that Karlsson is destined to play at a lower level and the trade is still a good one.
I don’t see the Hurricanes taking on Ryan’s contract. Four years is just too much term for the team to absorb even if the return is good. The only way it would make sense if if Francis thought Ryan could refind a higher gear scoring-wise. Otherwise, I do not think the Canes could absorb $7.5M X 4 years for another depth scorer.
Depending on the direction Dundon has given Francis, I can see the Canes taking Ryan if there are other pieces included that address some of the Canes weaknesses this season. Ryan would be an expensive 2nd/3rd line winger that can play on the PP and has played in the playoffs in 6 different seasons throughout his career, so in that regard I see him being similar to Williams for this team, but can play either wing and is a little younger with longer, more expensive term. If the right situation arose and Francis had to take Ryan to get some top 6 offensive help (Hoffman or maybe Duchene) or Karlsson which could improve the defensive scoring and PP2 on the team, then I could see this happening and I would be ok with it.
If Francis could somehow steal Karlsson, he would still need to find a way to add another top 6 guy. If he had to take Ryan, he definitely would be an improvement to the bottom 6 and maybe bottom 9, but isn’t going to fill the complete scoring hole. I would argue in a Karlsson deal it makes less sense to take Ryan unless you REALLY want to make a splash with Karlsson and this is the only way to get it done, or you REALLY want to get rid of some contracts on the team like Kruger/Darling/Rask & there are no buyers for them.
Taking Ryan seems to be one of the few scenarios I can picture where Francis can make a significant trade to improve the team while also having enough negotiating power to not have to give up a guy that he wants to hold on to.
I’m not saying I’m 100% for it, but if it yields a top center, a consistent 25+ goal scorer, or Karlsson, I definitely wouldn’t hate it.