As noted in previous articles leading up to the start of the 2020-21 season which is now only two days away for the Hurricanes, the upside for the Hurricanes rests not with off-season additions but rather with young players continue to reach higher levels.
In that vein, today’s Daily Cup of Joe asks what the ceiling might be for some of the Canes rising stars.
Sebastian Aho
When the 2019-20 season was cut short, Sebastian Aho was only two goals away from reaching 40 with 14 games remaining, and he was on pace for his second point per game season by the age of 22. The most significant number might be that last one — Aho is still only 23 years old and could still have upside. The next step for him would be to truly join the elite players like McDavid, MacKinnon, Draisaitl and maybe a couple others who are the most dominant players in the NHL. That next level is roughly a 100-point pace over 82 games. The difference between where Aho is now and that level is pretty small and could just come down to a faster start. Aho has traditionally started slow and tallied only six points in the 12 games played in October in 2019-20. A full season of Svechnikov on his wing could also help though that seems unlikely to happen.
Andrei Svechnikov
This might sound crazy, but I actually think Svechnikov’s ceiling is slightly higher than Aho’s. Whatever small amount he gives up in playmaking, he makes up for by having a couple extra options for finishing as a power forward and pure sniper. Despite starting in the NHL a year earlier than Aho age-wise, Svechnikov is tracking similar to Aho in terms of scoring. That trajectory would suggest a point per game pace for Svechnikov in his third NHL season, but I think his ceiling is similar in the rarified air of 100 points in a full 82-game season. How close Svechnikov gets to that in 2020-21 could largely depend on his utilization. He started the 2019-20 season as an offensive booster for Staal’s line. Svechnikov showed the breadth of his skill set being more of a playmaker/puck distributor on that line but it did tamp down his scoring a bit. If he spends significant time trying to be a catalyst for a second scoring line, his role might actually be more important, but his production would be slightly less than playing full-time with Aho and Teravainen. If he does stick with Trocheck, the watch point will be more so if/how much he can make the other players on his line better and more productive and less on a ceiling points total for 2020-21.
Teuvo Teravainen
Teravainen finished 14th in the entire NHL in assists for the 2019-20 season, and that was spending most of the season without another wing on his line who was clicking. Just adding Svechnikov to the first line full time could be enough to boost Teravainen into the top five for assists in the entire NHL. Couple that wish solid two-way play and sometimes underutilized shot, and Teravainen is on the verge of being considered among the league’s elite. I think it just takes either a great or even just couple hot finishers on the opposite side of Aho.
Martin Necas
With 20 goals in only 64 games as a rookie, Necas is the third of three budding stars, and only one season into his NHL career, he has the most room to grow. His ceiling is maybe a little more uncertain at this earlier stage of his development, but it would not surprise if before the 2021-22 season he looks like another player with scoring potential north of a point per game. I really think the cutover for Necas will be when he becomes just a bit more comfortable playing with the puck on his stick for longer stretches and working his way back to the playmaking pedigree he had when drafted. Couple that with the fact that he has already shown decent finishing ability, and his ceiling starts to look not that much different than Aho or Svechnikov. I am on record as believing that reaching his full potential could require a move back to center for Necas, but in only his second season at the NHL level, solid step-wise progress still at wing would be a positive.
Dougie Hamilton
Hamilton’s goal scoring pace for the 2019-20 season would have been tops in the NHL had he stayed healthy and maintained it. Can Hamilton repeat that performance? If so, he could be among the defenseman leaders for both goals and points while also playing tough minutes against the opponents’ best forwards. That level of play puts his ceiling in Norris Trophy range.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Is Sebastian Aho capable of taking one more step to reach the top tier in NHL scoring at a 100ish-point pace (for 82 games)?
2) What do you see for Andrei Svechnikov in 2020-21? Does he continue to make step-wise progress, or is he capable of quickly closing the gap on Aho for the team’s top scorer?
3) Can Dougie Hamilton match his torrid scoring pace from 2019-20, or is it more reasonable to expect a modest slowdown scoring-wise?
4) Do you see Martin Necas as following the trajectory as Aho and Svechnikov? Or is it more reasonable to project him a (still impressive) notch below them even when he catches up?
Go Canes!
1) Aho is extremely talented. So I think 100 points is reasonable. My one concern is that when the Canes were considering Aho at center, I argued that his production was eerily similar to John Tavares’. Tavares has only reached a 90-point pace once in his career.
2) I expect Svech and Aho to be close most seasons. As you mentioned, Svech might score more goals. My guess is both are 75-90 point players for the next 4 years.
3) Definitely expect Hamilton to slow. In reality he already had last season with 12 points in his last 20 games. That correlates to 49 points, which is close to Hamilton’s career high. I don’t expect the 4th best ppg of any D-man, which is where he was last season. In his 7 seasons he has been in the 10-15 range much more often.
4) I think Necas is a 60-65 point producer. I wouldn’t expect multiple ppg seasons as I do from Aho/Svech. I think Ehlers is a good comparable.
5) You didn’t ask, but I think TT’s comparable is Wheeler—one of the top play-making wingers in the game. For that reason, I think TT is as likely as Svech/Aho to have one or more 90-point seasons.
Aho has the best shot of the Canes players to bust up to the 100pt. level. He has all the tools and thinks the game very well. Teravainen doesn’t have that killer scoring instinct to get to that level. Svechnikov is a straight line player, IMO. He’s going to be a top power forward for a long time, but I doubt he’ll approach the 100pt level. Maybe a point per game at his peak.
Necas is the wildcard. To me his game will blossom when he gets strong enough not to get knocked off the puck by a stiff breeze. That said, he’s still a factor. I think he’s kind of like Teravainen in that he’s a pass first winger. The line of Svechnikov, Trocheck, and Necas is intriguing. This is a situation where Necas could blossom offensively and help Trocheck be more effective. I don’t think passing is a strong point in Trocheck’s game. Necas could power that line in the o-zone. Now, can they keep the other team from scoring is the real question with that line.
The whole obsession with having Svechnikov with Aho and Teravainen is so silly. Especially in road games where the other team has last change it can even be detrimental. Aho and Turbo will be a threat no matter who is on their wing. Trocheck and Necas are the guys that the Canes need to get more from and Svechnikov and the attention he brings could be the guy to do it.
Finally, I think Hamilton was having his career year last season before he got hurt. I would be surprised to see him replicate it, but he will be effective and an offensive threat.
As much as I understand the concept of understating the quality of play (Hamilton), I am not expecting LESS from him…quite the opposite! I believe he has grown comfortable HERE, and I believe his DEFENSE AND OFFENSE WIll rise above last year!
The group of Aho, TT, Svech, Necas, are still improving and will continue to make their teammates better, no matter what lines they are on! …STANLEY CUP IS A VERY GOOD POSSIBILITY…SOON!