If Tuesday’s game was any kind of preview of what to expect in a playoff series between the Carolina Hurricanes and the Tampa Bay Lightning, such a match up would be an absolute treat. Both teams have the ability to play with pace and pressure an opposing defense and also the ability to finish. The animosity between the two teams has increased immensely over the course of the eight games played. And with the Lightning being the reigning Stanley Cup champions and the Hurricanes on the rise, the series has the potential to be another epic battle just like the 2019 first-round series against the Washington Capitals.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe ponders what it would take to beat the Lightning in a playoff series.
1) Matching Andrei Vasilevskiy
In any series where one team gets significantly better goaltending, that advantage is nearly impossible to overcome in the playoffs. To beat the Lightning, the Hurricanes’ goaltending will need to match or be very close to Vasilevskiy. There are a few interesting angles on that. First, Vasilevskiy is fairly considered among the best in the NHL. His 1.90 goals against average in the 2020 playoffs is similarly stellar. That would suggest a tall task to match him. But at least during the regular season, the Hurricanes netminders generally have. Both Petr Mrazek and Alex Nedeljkovic have better numbers than Vasilevskiy and have similarly performed well in the head to head match ups. The playoffs can be different, but when described as just needing more of the same from the Canes goalies, the task does not seem so daunting.
2) Winning best against best
Versus the Lightning, having to match elite players does not end at the goaltending position. Victor Hedman has a legitimate claim to being the best defenseman in the NHL. Nikita Kucherov who figures to return for the playoffs is a top 5 type forward. And Brayden Point ranks pretty high too. If before a Canes versus Lightning series, you told me that the best three players of the series would be Vasilevskiy, Hedman and Kucherov, I would figure the Canes chance of winning to be very low. Yes, full roster depth is needed to be successful in the playoffs, but that is table stakes that most of the top teams have. Generally, series are decided by which team’s top players are better. In that regard, the Lightning represent arguably the toughest match up in the NHL in that regard. The series could likely come down to if young offensive stars Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov and Martin Necas are ready to take next steps on the big stage and also if Vincent Trocheck can continue what he is doing in the regular season during the playoffs. As evidenced by Tuesday’s physical battle, the ice gets smaller and more dangerous during the playoffs. Tampa Bay’s offensive stars showed an ability to produce and thrive in tighter hockey games during the 2020 NHL Playoffs and that resulted in a Stanley Cup win. Can the Hurricanes young stars similarly navigate the challenges of playoff hockey and be as good or better than the Lightning stars?
3) The ability to find an edge, break or X factor
If the regular season series is indication, the gap between the two teams is small, small enough that a couple small things could be enough to decide the series. We have already seen some back and forth in terms of tactical adjustments coaching-wise. John Cooper seemed to identify a couple changes that made differences. Rod Brind’Amour and his staff seemed to be able to react and also deserve credit for having the Canes in the right mindset to bounce back strong after two sub-par efforts. That ability to rebound quickly can be critical in the playoffs.
More generally than coaching, any kind of X factor that steals a game of two could well be the difference. Against, the Washington Capitals some combination of a Warren Foegele surge and an over the top home crowd and atmosphere propelled the Hurricanes quickly back into the Washington Capital series after losing the first two games. A huge game by a supporting player, a couple consecutive bounces that result in scoring plays or a coach being able to find/exploit a weakness could be the difference. Especially with the teams seeing each other eight times, there is plenty of film to dissect.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Which of the three factors that I listed do you see as most important in deciding a potential playoff series between the Hurricanes and Lightning?
2) What other factors would you add to this list?
Go Canes!
All of that is correct, but the big X factor for the Canes is physicality.
The past two seasons the Bruins have bullied and beaten the Canes out of the playoffs. When McAvoy hurt Jordan Staal last year it was over. Tampa Bay showed that they will follow the same gameplan this week. It worked on Monday, but the Canes did respond on Tuesday.
There are still players in the league who hit to injure. Killorn is one of them and he was trying to take out Necas. I couldn’t say his hit was illegal from what I saw, but the intent was there. The refs this week were allowing a playoff style. If the Canes play like they did in the first two periods Monday they have zero chance.
The reason other teams do that to the Canes is that it works. Aho is not effective, other than the power play, in these games. Makes sense to minimalize the other team’s best player. Other players will have to step up like last night.
The addition of the big defenseman helps, but the Canes are still a bit light up front. We’ll see if they can overcome.
I wonder if getting Tampa Bay Lightning in the first round, while Nikita Kucherov is still rounding into form, would be better than getting them in the second round.
1. One comment that Tripp made in the 2nd game against Tampa that I like (and agree with) is that Ned looks down the ice and fully believes he is better than Vasilevskiy. That is confidence – and well-deserved. I think this season’s performance is a better guide than last year’s playoffs.
Either way, there won’t be a lot of goals scored in any given game.
2. We match up really well with the Bolts. And that is not to say we are better – we just as good at each position. Stamkos and Kucherov may swing things a bit more Tampa’s way, but Slavin and Pesce can match them.
It is going to be a great series of best against best, all the way down the 4 lines.
4. I noticed today that the 4th line played very little against FLA. That may have had to do with all the penalties, but our 4th has to measure up – failure would be an x-factor against us.
We beat WAS in Game 7 two seasons ago with McGinn being at exactly the right place at exactly the right time – that may be the determinant in a CAR-TBL playoff series as well.