After a surge early in January, a brief setback last week and a strong finish with a 2-0-1 record in three games in Western Canada this week, the Hurricanes will have eight days to rest and recharge during the All-Star break and their bye week before the final 32 games of the 2018-19 season.
The Hurricanes surged to an 8-3-1 mark in January. Unfortunately, that was only the mirror image of the abysmal 4-8-1 record in December. Added together the team is a treading water 12-11-2 through the middle months of the season, but based on the January success is at least close enough that climbing back into the playoff chase is possible.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe asks, “What does it take?” to play games that matter at least in late March and early April.
The current status
Using a games above .500 methodology that adjusts for games played, the cut line for the Eastern Conference playoffs has Pittsburgh, Montreal and Boston all tied for the last three playoff spots at 10 games above .500. The Hurricanes sit at 4 games above .500 which puts them 6 points back of a playoff spot. That gap is significant but not insurmountable.
So what does it take to make up six more points and be at the cut line come late March?
At a general level
At the most basic level, I think it takes three things for the Hurricanes to climb back into the playoff chase.
1) Another big run
I think it will take at least one more big run like the seven wins in eight games in early January or something like a five or six game winning streak. Trying to make up six points with a bunch of 2-1 weeks likely will not do it. The other teams will win too, and too often a point gained is lost a day or two later. The team needs one more streak of some magnitude to close ground in a hurry.
2) No losing streaks
The Hurricanes will not be perfect for two plus months nor do they need to be, but because the team is already in a hold, it will not be able to survive another losing streak. The next time this team loses three straight, four out of five or similar could well spell the end of the season.
3) Consistency across the board without lulls
Critical will be a consistent run of hockey down the stretch that gives the team a chance nearly every night. The benefit of being in every game is immense in the NHL because it brings overtime into play regularly and the OTL points that can make the difference in the end.
Math-wise
Normally, the playoff cut line finds its way to 94 or 95 points, but currently the pace is significantly higher at 98 to 99 points. Though it is possible that teams cool off and push the total back down usually the opposite happens as a few teams go into tank mode and the good teams put it together and surge down the stretch.
If we assume that the playoff cut line will regress a bit closer to the norm, 96 points would be a reasonable target to make the playoffs. For the Hurricanes to reach that number, the team would need a 21-11 record in its final 32 games. That is the equivalent of a 108-point pace over 82 games and just a tiny bit lower than the team’s scorching 116-point pace in January.
In simpler teams, the team needs to do what it did in January for two months to play games in early April withe playoffs still in range. It is possible but also a tall task.
The grass really is greener
If one wants to be jealous, he/she needs look no further than the Western Conference standings. In the other conference, the Hurricanes four games above .500 would have the team in the first wild card slot. Ouch!
What say you Canes fans?
1) Is this team turning the corner and ready to sprint through the last 32 games of the regular season and into the playoffs? Or despite a strong January, do the high point totals in the Eastern Conference make the playoffs realistically out of reach?
2) What is your list of 1-3 things that need to happen for the Hurricanes to be in the playoff chase heading into the last couple games in the first week of April?
Go Canes!
If I’m being optimistic, the thing that’s encouraging is that they’ve pulled even with Sabres in points (although have played 2 more games than Buffalo). If they can push past Sabres soon, they’ll be next in line for the wildcard. If that happens, they only need one of the two wildcard teams to falter (while winning 2/3 games each week).
On the pessimistic side, I believe the remaining schedule is tougher than the first 50 games of the season, so that doesn’t bode well. And the stretch right before the trade deadline is brutal.
I stayed up to watch all three games this week. I saw the team that played hard and outworked opponents during the pre-season and in the first few games in October. Dougie Hamilton is now playing like the player we traded for and our offense is noticeably more dangerous with Nino – that has the early signs of a fantastic trade – I have no idea what MIN was thinking.
The team that played this week is not a team anyone else is going to relish playing down the stretch and it is definitely the type of team that can go on another 7-10 game run. To be a playoff team, we’re going to have to beat a bunch of playoff teams down the stretch. I think it’s going to take both of those things. Possible, but a tall order.
It’s going to get very interesting if/when Staal comes back. And if we keep Ferland.
1. I don’t know. LOL! Because…
2. This team has a Jekyll and Hyde quality. When we play with energy we can compete with anybody and beat most – Dr. Jekyll. We have the talent – even moreso with the Nino-for-Rask trade (does anybody disagree with the premise that Nino has been our best player since the trade – but also his style of play seems to lift everyone else’s – but I digress, except to mention Aho and Nino play off each so very well). We don’t need another top-6 forward, although that would be frosting. If we play with energy and passion we win – and when we don’t win (CGY) we still can outplay the best. It is the low-energy WTF games – NYR and OTT last week, and all those games in December. That’s Mr. Hyde.
In one sense – and I used this in a Facebook quip earlier today – Dr. Jekyll cannot drink the potion! 😀
Losing streaks come to us when we do not play with passion and energy.
So we have to be especially good.
One technical thing to notice is how much better we have been in faceoffs since the OTT game – Aho was abysmal in that game with a something like a 25% win. He is now reversing those numbers. John and Tripp referenced the plane ride to EDM and how RBA brought each center to the front of the cabin to go over film. That made a huge difference, clearly.
Talking about Staal and how he slots in on his eventual return is topic for another conversation. But I think the biggest mistake we can make right now is to trade Ferland too soon. If we are in the position of being buyers, wouldn’t it make more sense to keep Ferland and ride his energy and physicality for a playoff run than to trade him for picks and prospects? Even if we lose him for nothing – while the nothing really isn’t nothing; it’s a long overdue appearance in the playoffs for a team that showed this past week it can compete even without Staal and Ferland on ice.
In the end, I don’t think our playoff position will be determined until March – unless we fall off a cliff. We have a lot of home games that month and that is our biggest end-of-season plus.
Just no more Mr. Hyde please.
In the simplest terms the Canes must overtake the Penguins for 4th place in the Metro. The Canes are 6 points from a tie, the Pens have 2 games in hand and own the tiebreaker. Get good odds if you’re going to make a wager they will make it. Kinda like second marriages.
raleightj, Nino has been absolutely great. I still have no idea what the Wild were thinking. Thank you very much Minny.
When this team plays with passion they can compete with anyone. We could have very easily beat Tampa.
I still hope management can work something our with Ferland. His physically play (yes, we have others who do that) is very high end, and he scores. He may be asking for the world. I really do not want to see him go. Hamilton is playing well. I do not believe we should move a D. If we want a forward, pick him up at the end of the year, UFA. Yes, it would be great to get a supper F, but it would cost and things are not that broke.
I do not know if we make the playoffs but this is a fun team to watch. Even if we did, picking up a F would probably not get us that far. All we need is consistency and passion.
And yes…. Just no more Mr. Hyde please.