This article might have seemed better timed before Thursday’s loss (I wrote it before the game.), but bigger picture I do not think the team’s trajectory significantly changed based on a single road loss.
With a young team whose core is only getting better and that now has consecutive playoff berths to its credit, the Carolina Hurricanes are moving closer to legitimately competing for and possibly winning the Stanley Cup.
The question is what the team needs to do to officially open that window and/or whether that is already in process or maybe even completed. I wrote a bit about that earlier this week in my article entitled, “Are we approaching peak Hurricanes?” Some think that reaching the level of being a true Stanley Cup contender is a building process that happens stepwise over a number of years. While there is usually a build up, rapid changes in player performance coupled with salary cap strain makes it nearly impossible to sustain meaningful improvement long-term (reference the Chicago Blackhawks rise and fall) and just stepwise build toward having a sure thing winner.
That said, I do think there is a level that is reached that puts a team in range. As wild as the NHL playoffs can be for upsets in early rounds, the list of Stanley Cup winners over the past decade or so features very few real surprises. Immediately after the lockout radically changed the financial structure of the NHL before the 2005-06 season, the Carolina Hurricanes came out of nowhere to win the 2006 Stanley Cup. The Anaheim Ducks won in 2007. But since then, I would argue that each and every team that has won the Stanley Cup would have been among the 4-6 teams favored before the season started. Detroit won in 2008 at the end of a strong era. The next nine years featured three Cup wins each by the Penguins and Blackhawks and two by the Kings. The Bruins who also seemed to be in the mix for many of those years won the other. More recently, the Capitals, Blues and Lightning were all reasonably common picks before the season started. Of the 13 Cup winners only St. Louis would maybe have been considered a bit of a surprise, and even that is debatable. So as much as fans want to believe the ‘anything is possible’ joy of the NHL playoffs, the reality is that Cup winners almost always come from a small group of teams that are recognized as the best in the NHL.
That begs the question – Are the Hurricanes already in the top echelon of 4-6 teams with legitimate Stanley Cup aspirations? If not, what does it take to get there?
A quick look at 2021 Stanley Cup champion odds suggests that the betting world thinks that the team is close. Early Stanley Cup odds suggest that the Hurricanes are close if maybe not quite there yet as the ninth-ranked NHL team according to Stanley Cup odds.
But does the Carolina Hurricanes scorching 6-2-0 start including three quality wins over the two 2020 Stanley Cup finalists suggest that those odds are just lagging a bit and that the Hurricanes have entered their Stanley Cup window?
What say you Canes fans?
1) Are the Hurricanes already among the top 4-6 teams in the NHL that seem to have a legitimate chance of hoisting the Cup?
2) If you are optimistic but unsure, what would it take to convince you?
3) If you think the team is still a bit short of the top echelon of the NHL, what do you think is needed to reach it?
Go Canes!
1. Not yet but getting closer.
2. Although some players are playing very well (Staal, Aho, Svechnikov, Pesce, Trocheck, Reimer, McGinn, Niederreiter), others have gotten off to a slower start (Slavin, Teravainen, Martinook) perhaps due to the Covid effect. If the team completely gels and plays a consistent style then that certainly would be reason for optimism.
3. The single biggest factor could be how well Alex Nedeljkovic plays. We should find out soon.
1. Getting closer and could be considered as one of the few dark horse candidates to sneak in and win it all. This is a season unlike any other, and the shear number of variables at play create a more conducive environment for a second tier team to come out on top. I have Tampa, Colorado, Vegas, Boston, Toronto, and St. Louis as my top group. Dallas, Hurricanes, Islanders, Canadians, Columbus and Philly next group with a legitimate shot. I’m anticipating the last two weeks of the regular season being similar to the last ten laps of a NASCAR race at Talladega (for all you race car fans out there). Lots of teams bunched together in the standings, a few teams make a move causing others to crash and all hell breaks loose. The winner(s) will be battered and bruised, only to have to gear up for another couple of months of insanity. Should be fun.
2. I’m pretty optimistic they’ll get in the playoffs and be able to do some damage. They’re pretty consistent and play a style that is typically tough for opponents to out-shoot and out-chance them, so I think it probably will come down to special teams – which has been the issue in previous seasons but becoming less of one with the current group. Especially interested to see Fast in action….he could be the guy to really change things this year.
3. Top tier goalie. No question you can win it all with a good goalie getting hot at the right time and the Canes’ goalies are good enough for a bit of a ride in the playoffs. I’d prefer one stud goalie with a capable backup and I’m afraid when the cream rises to the top of the heap, the lack of a top 10-15 goalie will be difficult to overcome.
1) 4-6 is fairly specific. I would say a tie for 6th with St. Louis and Winnipeg—once they add PLD the Jets could move ahead. I see the top 5 as Tampa, Vegas, Colorado, Boston, and Philly.
2) I think continued improvement from Necas is the biggest key. Thus far he has looked much like Aho in his second season, if he continues with that trajectory, his playmaking makes the Canes dangerous. Also, you mentioned yesterday how Trocheck’s early season is similar to Haula’s in 19-20. Trocheck (and to a lesser degree Sjkei and Gardiner) need to consistently look like players earning $4M+.
3) blinkman is on to something. One commonality the post doesn’t mention about recent cup winners is that the goalies were either drafted by the organization (Chicago, Pittsburgh, LA, Washington, St. Louis) or a longtime member (Thomas in Boston). Mid-career goalies haven’t had success. Could the key to a cup be Ned becoming the #1 goalie? My theory is that while goalies are voodoo, developing within an organization gives one (not just in hockey but in the business world as well) a sense that you can make mistakes and still have trust. I sincerely believe that feeling trusted is almost as important as tracking the puck and rebound control.
The journeyman goalie that looked like he had taken a big step forward was Mrazek, IMO. Nedeljkovic hopefully can give the Canes some decent games. Hard to be high on a guy that can pass through waivers at league minimum.
I disagree that Trocheck’s season looks like Huala’s from last year. Trocheck does so much more than Huala. Trocheck is good defensively, wins faceoffs, and has been handling the puck at another level.
I would compare Trocheck’s start to Dougie Hamilton’s last year. He’s in the zone and doing everything better than he was. Hopefully it lasts the entire season. Also hope Hamilton finds that groove again. It ain’t there right now.
1) No. The Canes are getting better, but still lack the “heft” it takes to survive a Cup run. TB had the skill but needed to add larger, more powerful guys to win the cup. A goalie playing at the top of his game is also necessary. Mrazek looked like he was approaching that level prior to injury.
2) A strong showing vs. Dallas would push me the other direction. They are big and strong and were starting to push the Canes around in the second game. The Canes less than stellar defensive efforts recently plus the soft factor could yield a tough couple games in Dallas.
3) Less soft play. The Canes have some top players that fade when things get rough. The Canes bottom six needs to be tougher to play against. Patrick Maroon and Blake Coleman vs. Jordan Martinook and Warren Foegele. Not close.
1. This team is too Hyde (difficulties with DET; giving up 3 PP goals in 1 period to CHI) and not enough Jekyl (major wins against TBL and DAL) to be seriously described as top 4-6. The Jekyl teams definitely is. The Hyde team is back to NASCAR (the the “Carolina 500”).
2,3) This team needs to play with the hunger and desperation as it did when it was short-handed against TBL and DAL. Everyone was pulling on the rope (even Rempel, Snow, and McCormick). The team looks a lot more complacent if not lazy now that everyone is back.