Barely more than a weekend away from Monday’s 2020 NHL trade deadline, today’s Daily Cup of Joe checks in on the market and possibilities from a Hurricanes standpoint.
If you missed it, my original preview is HERE.
Blue line frenzy
The market for top 4-(ish) defensemen that I have as the Canes priority has been both a busy and pricey one.
Marco Scandella who I would consider more to be depth defensemen rather than true top 4 yielded 2nd and 4th round picks.
Andy Greene who is a great veteran but also more of a depth option in my opinion at this stage of his career collected and 2nd round pick and a prospect.
Dylan Dimelo netted a third round pick.
Higher-end options netted even more.
Brenden Dillon garnered a 2nd and a 3rd round pick.
Alec Martinez netted two 2nd round picks.
Just like that, the list of available defensemen is shorter by five already. I liked Martinez as a capable veteran to possibly slot next to Brett Pesce for the remainder of the 2019-20 season but also importantly for the 2020-21 season too. But as I said on Twitter, I am completely fine with the Hurricanes passing at these prices and shopping what is left later or even just skipping it altogether. The type of players being moved so far are capable players but not so much huge difference-makers that I would dig deep to land.
With Martinez and Dillon off the table, two of the four players that I named as targets are still out there. I had Jonas Brodin as the best option who might be available and also consider him a player that I would pay a reasonable premium to nab because of the term of his contract through the 2020-21 season. Whether he is even available with term on his contract and Minnesota still in the playoff hunt is a question mark, but I would at least put in a call.
The other option is Sami Vatanen who is a rental with a contract that expires at the end of the season. I would not bid him up to the levels of the other players, but with the Devils being a definite seller, just maybe they do not have any great options when the deadline approaches and they settle for a mid-round pick.
The case for doing something
Some are saying that the Hurricanes are likely a year or two away from pushing for the Cup and therefore should just roll with the current group versus spending futures to bolster the lineup. While I agree that the Hurricanes are still a team that is rising and could have better chances down the road, I actually disagree with the general premise that tries to handicap which teams have a chance and which do not. Low seeds can and do regularly advance deep into the playoffs. The wild cards won all four first-round series last year, and the Hurricanes pushed all the way to the Eastern Conference Finals before hitting a wall. So once in the playoffs, I think many people underestimate the chance of winning the Cup. Because of that, I would be inclined to use the remaining cap space and getting the best money can buy for only a mid-round draft pick or two.
Strategy from here
With so many teams up against the salary cap ceiling these days, the market can go quickly from the seller’s market that it has been to a buyer’s market late when the big bidders run out of cap space and suddenly supply of players outstrips remaining demand.
I would push for Brodin if he is in fact available. I would pay a reasonable amount (maybe slightly less than other mid-tier defensemen traded so far) for Sami Vatanen. And otherwise, I would opportunistically shop for the best I can get for a third to fifth round pick.
But if the prices stay similar or even higher for someone like Brodin, I would be okay with the team passing.
What say you Canes fans?
1) What are your thoughts on the trades thus far? Which, if any, of the deals would you steal given the chance?
2) Given what has happened so far, what do you think the Canes should do before Monday’s trade deadline?
Go Canes!
1) the prices paid are very high. Unless one of the trading teams wins the cup (at most, only one active trading team will win it), some may look back at these trades regretfully.
On the other hand, all draft picks after the first 5-10 may or may not ever crack the NHL. Does that fact make the individual picks less valuable, or does it indicate that you need a lot of draft picks to improve your chances of getting some difference makers? Based on observation of an analytics fueled approach, it looks like the latter.
2) the canes are in a much different position than say Pittsburgh. The canes top players are young. IMHO they are better off to stand pat and continue building towards a dynasty. Give some young guys a chance.
Very happy to hear that Fleury’s injury isn’t bad, he is finally getting the playing time to find his game at the NHL level. His play is starting to look like his play in the AHL playoffs last year. His breakthrough will be confidence, the skill set is there.
The callup decision (if necessary) will be interesting. Fleury and Edmundson are both left shots, so one approach is to bring up a right shot. McKeown is the safe choice, the Charlotte captain playing top pairing minutes. Oliver Kaski is a fascinating alternative. While new to North America he is a good skater with a cannon of a shot. He looks to have a high ceiling.
If they go with a left shot and keep Eddy on his off side, I think you have to go with McKeown’s linemate Bean. The unreliable statistic +/- has not been on his side, but his offensive game is fun to watch.
As we all know the canes are likely to need reinforcements in a playoff run, so cycling a few players through, get them a look and a clear slate of things to work on is the best long term play.
With the canes likely to announce a callup this morning, I could be completely wrong in record time! Lol.
I would consider Collin Miller from Buf.
He is an RHD and I believe he is sined through 2021 at a reasonable cap it.
He’s borderline top 4 but has NHL experience. Buf aer going to be in fire sale mode, especially on d, so he could probably be obtained for a couple f mid round picks and a prospect.
I think picks are overvalued. OUtsie of Svvech (and now Fleury) the Canes roster has exactly 0 players from their first round picks in recent memory.
Yes, they used some as trade assets to obtain other players, but but that’s exactly what we’re talking about here.
I’d rather use a first round pick on an established NHL player that fills a need rather than pick a player to over ripen in Charlotte.
Totaly agree on the strategy f waiting until close to trade deadline midnight, prices could come down.
I agree on picks being overvalued. Wasn’t Necas a first round pic?
Indeed he was.
Obviously breezy forgot about Necas.
But I will say that 10 of our last 17 first round picks (going back to 2002) are still playing in the NHL. 2 of the 7 who are not had pretty good careers – Ward and Ladd. And 2 more of the 7 are knocking on the door (Bean and Gauthier). That said, you have to go back to Skinner and before him to Staal to get true superstar selections in our first rounders (excluding Svech and possibly Necas).
But to me the number of later round picks is where things get interesting – we have had some great names in the middle rounds of the draft. I am almost more reluctant to part with those than a first round pick.
Prices are high. Too high. The Canes window has several years or more on it, so it’s no time to be desperate IMO. Unless the Canes can get a defenseman they want to keep for a while I would pass. If the team can play like they did Tuesday they will make the playoffs.
I do value those draft picks. I know there is a portion of luck to them, but the failures in the first round had more to do with the Rutherford/Francis regimes and their scouting than luck. With two first round and two second round picks the Canes could land another high end player and think of the impact that could have long term. That’s how you build a perennial winner.
An interesting exercise is to work backwards from the projected future salary cap and answer the question: How many players on ELCs are required to keep the high end players that you want?
The canes currently get incredible value from Svechnikov and Necas on their ELCs. In previous years a similar value was realized from Slavin and Pesce.
Let’s say for the sake of argument, with more high-end players on the roster who are not on ELCs, the team will need four players on ELCs to keep the roster they want and stay under the cap.
Given the historical performance of draft picks making it to the NHL on ELC, how big does the prospect pool have to be to hit the number? Statistically speaking? Viewed through this lens, the Gauthier trade makes sense, as does getting a player like Bokk in the Faulk trade. And depending on the potential of the current prospect pool, it helps value the future picks.
It is an interesting mental exercise and computer modeling exercise.
OK … I’m going to go a little crazy here and take the other side of this, just for fun … If we play on Friday vs. NYR and on Saturday vs. TOR the way we played against NAS – that is to say, that we seem to have found our formula and then executed it three times in a row, I’d be willing to spend more aggressively.
I’d go hard after Josh Manson in ANA. I realize his name hasn’t come up and he might not be available, but they are going into full rebuild mode and might be tempted by an aggressive offer of, say, a 1st + Bean/Fleury +. He’s got 2-yrs left on an affordable deal, has quite the snarl, and is certainly Top 4. We’d instantly be better and for a while.
If we can’t make that happen, or even if we can make that happen, I would also go after Vinny Trocheck. Affordable for 2 more years and very productive, and fiesty. I’d really be looking for someone feisty. That’d probably cost a 1st + roster player or top prospect but, again, probably worth it.
I haven’t thought through how either of these deals would affect the Expansion Draft calculus – it may not work for that reason – but I would spend on players like these.
There are really only two times during the year when fruit can be shaken from the tree, now and at the draft; I’d try and make the most of it and think bigger.
I like this thinking LOL.
1) For the sake of this discussion, I would steal the Dimelo trade. He is a solid dman that cost little.
2) Likely nothing.
Others mentioned analytics. I would like to see an objective review of trades near the deadline. My guess is that they don’t help nearly as much as conventional wisdom suggests. For instance, last season VGK landed the biggest fish. Considering they had been to the finals the year prior, they looked like favorites in the west.
On the other hand, St. Louis acquired Del Zotto. The key to winning the Cup was a rookie goalie, which was also the key for Pittsburgh a few years prior. In 17-18 Washington did acquire Kempny, which I guess would be equivalent to trading for Vatanen.
My point is that I think the “make the team better” argument might not hold up to objective analysis. If it doesn’t, then why do it. Better to call up Ned because there seems to be more correlation with a rookie goalie winning the Cup (Binnington, Murray, Cam).
Agree on skepticism on how much deadline deals help. And I also think the question is often at what price. For teams that do advance and ultimately win it all, having more depth almost always proves valuable just because of the war of attrition that the playoffs are, but the concept that one player is going to make a team significantly better seems to be overblown.
Given the randomness of successful outcomes of NHL draft picks, statistically there is great value in having a high volume of picks. While giving up a 2nd and 3rd seems to have virtually no cost, they do reduce your chances of “getting lucky” by 2 lost rolls of the dice. A trade of a player for draft choices is the classic trading of “2 birds in the bush for 1 bird in the hand”. The Capitals trading for UFA Brenden Dillon was a classic over stocking of hard ass defensemen (6’5″, 225 lbs., 83PIMs) for the gauntlet of 4 playoff rounds. The Caps gave up a 2nd and a 3rd for a rental. It is a trade that will have only made sense if they win the Cup.
LeBrun indicated this morning in The Athletic that the Canes are interested in MTL’s Petry – which makes a lot of sense. An offensive-minded D with a year of term (Matt’s bridge year), and his $5.5M is what we can afford at the trade deadline. LeBrun speculates the price will be high – one of our first-rounders and Bean – and that MTL will probably keep him (and the Canes’ proffer may not be enough). But this is the best idea I have heard through all the rumblings and speculation.
raleightj, do you think that is too much to give up for Petry?
This falls into my bucket of “thinking bigger” and worth paying more for. A 1st + Bean for one more year of Petry sounds like a lot to me.
As I said, the price is high. But if you don’t think Bean is going to be a difference-maker at the NHL level and recognizing we have Keane and Sellgren and maybe Priskie who can step up and “be” Bean, then it doesn’t seem that steep a price for a player who will be a difference maker this year and next.
I’m not so high on Petry and him only having one year left could cause an issue at the end of next season. The Canes would have both he and Hamilton up for new deals AND the expansion draft to deal with. Not worth the little bump he would give the Canes.
I actually think Canes management (correctly) views themselves as having a 2-year window because they have salary cap budget for 2020-21 but likely not after that.
That was the crux of my initial article on the trade deadline suggesting the ideal targets were players with 1 1/2 years of term.
It is not that the window closes after 2020-21. Canes will have a young team that is still potentially rises. But with Svechnikov and Hamilton up for new contracts and then Necas the following year, the salary cap math gets much harder.
This might sound odd, but with the salary cap math and hockey being a young man’s game, I actually think 2020-21 could be a peak when you consider both core players and also ability to bolster that by spending some $.
If you buy this reasoning, that is why players like Petry, Brodin, Martinez, etc. with term through 2020-21 make sense.
I think Petry is a big step up for this season with Hamilton out, and he plugs the hole that is Gardiner next season, addressing a critical need with both Edmundson and TvR gone. You have to worry a lot less about the D next season. We sign Hamilton and let Petry walk – no impact cap beyond next season or the expansion draft.
All this speculation is interesting. One thing thing to think of is what to do about Gardiner and his 3 yrs left at 4m.
Also the Canes will be in the market for a 2C next year which is costly. Unless Necas can that which is big risk or Staal rebounds.
Necas is several years away from being ready to play center. Staal is slowing down but he can shift into few minutes as a more typical checking center. Haula is the one who has to be replaced – an offensive minded mid-6 center, and those can be found for reasonable contracts.
15. Matt Duchene 8m
17. Evgeny Kuznetsov 7.8
David Krejc 7.25
20. Kevin Hayes
21. Ryan Kesler
23. Brayden Point 6.75
or Vicktor Rask
Again, I am going to be in the minority.
Matt said:
“I actually think Canes management (correctly) views themselves as having a 2-year window because they have salary cap budget for 2020-21 but likely not after that.”
I think the window is 8 years starting in 21-22. If they can sign Svech for 8 years, then they need $ sign Necas and to re-sign Aho, Teravainen, Pesce, and Slavin in 4 or 5 years. The extra money above their current contracts comes from Staal and Hamilton.
As good as Dougie was playing when he went down, I think a hard look at his numbers (his season high is 50 points; while he was surely surpassing that this season, he was playing at that pace—12 points in 20 games—for the six weeks before he was injured; he also averages less than .5 points in the playoffs) suggests that he is more Trouba than Carlson. He will likely garner at least the same 7 or 8yr/8M contract as those two. That money is better spent long term on signing Aho and Pesce for another 5 years while leaving the team some flexibility during an 8-year window.
Slavin/Pesce is always an option for top pairing. Fleury/Gardiner will be NHLers for at least until 2023 while one or two of Bean/Sellgren/Keane/Priskie/Kaski could provide 2 blue liners with significant offense. I see the organization viewing Hamilton more like Hanifin, Lindholm, Faulk and being willing to move on.