I kicked off this week with an article entitled, “Two Canes assertions.” That article which you can find HERE asserted that Brett Pesce was the key to the blue line and that peak Canes could include Martin Necas moving back to center.
Continuing with the assertion theme and continuing a tour through the Hurricanes lineup, today’s Daily Cup of Joe considers the goaltending situation and the need to figure out a more productive path forward at wing.
1) The Hurricanes do not ‘have’ to do anything at goalie
Spotlight type costly errors in both of the last two games of the series versus the Boston Bruins has some suggesting that the Hurricanes need an upgrade in net to take the next step. Petr Mrazek’s horrid error having Patrice Bergeron shoot off of him and in from an impossible angle behind the goal line with less than five seconds remaining in the second period of a tie game was no doubt a horrible gaffe. And James Reimer coming out to play the puck but instead being beaten to it for an easy goal was nearly as bad. But in total, even in the playoffs, the Hurricanes goaltending was not a problem. Mrazek finished the playoffs with a .929 save percentage and 2.08 goals against average in five starts. Reimer was just as good with a .934 save percentage and 2.36 goals against average in three starts. They fail the eye test only because a single bad play that each made featured so prominently in a playoff loss. Similarly, the duo was good enough or better during the regular season.
Are there better goalies in the NHL? Certainly. But goalies who are elite or close and currently playing at the top of their game are generally not available except via signing a massive, high-risk contract. Going that route did not pan out so well for Florida who won the Sergey Bobrovsky sweepstakes. And the same risks come with whoever wins a bidding war for 30-year old Braden Holtby this summer.
The other angle is that with Alex Nedeljkovic no longer waiver-exempt and needing to stay at the NHL level, that the Hurricanes will need to unload one of the three goalies. Financially, there is no immediate need. Nedeljkovic is on an entry-level contract and Reimer already received most of his 2020-21 pay in the form of a signing bonus. So the out of pocket cost from this point forward for all three goalies is only about $5 million. Having three goalies on the roster can be a bit awkward with only two nets for practice, but at least short-term I think that is manageable while the team hopefully sees if Nedeljkovic is ready but has a plan B if he is not.
I have a half-written article that considers Canes goalie options in more detail. I actually do think that there if a reasonably chance that the team moves opportunistically, but per my thoughts above, I do not think that is a necessity.
2) The Canes need to figure out the wing position
On the other hand, I do think the Hurricanes have some sorting out to do at wing. Andrei Svechnikov made good strides in his sophomore campaign and is on the path to being a top-tier scoring wing if he is not given credit for being there already. Teuvo Teravainen is established as a complementary two-way wing who can slot anywhere in the lineup.
But after that, things become questionable. After being acquired via trade, Nino Niederreiter provided a spark that was integral to the late season run and playoff berth in 2018-19. But since then he has struggled to find that top gear in either of two tries in the playoffs and also for the 2019-20 regular season. Similarly, Ryan Dzingel was acquired as a wing whose greatest strength was being a proven scorer. He never really found his scoring gear in his first season in a Canes uniform. The big issue is that both players are a bit one-dimensional as offense-leaning scorers, so when they are not putting the puck in the net, their contributions can be minimal. The end result was Brind’Amour rotating them in and out of the lineups during the playoffs trying to find a hot hand.
In a different category are Brock McGinn and Warren Foegele. Both do bring a bit more than goal totals as players who can be physical and a key cog in the forechecking engine when it is clicking. But neither is really a scoring line-capable finisher. As such, both are somewhat limited in their ability to be more than a complementary player who is a bit light on production if playing in the top 9.
The one player with seeming upside here is Martin Necas. I am on record in the previous article as suggesting that the peak version of the Hurricanes could be better-served with Necas in a center position. But if Necas does stay at wing, he showed signs of being a capable goal scorer.
Past that, the Hurricanes are light in terms of reinforcements. Trocheck skates well enough that maybe he could play wing. I am not sure that is true for Morgan Geekie. And at the trade deadline, the Hurricanes parted ways with prospects Julien Gauthier and Janne Kuokkanen who could maybe have auditioned.
To be deeper and more balanced scoring-wise across three lines, the Hurricanes need to have at least one and probably two wings find a higher gear. The question is whether the team thinks it can get more from what it already has or if instead General Manager Don Waddell will need to maneuver a bit. The challenge in that regard is that Niederreiter’s contract is inflated relative to his current production and though the one year remaining on Dzingel’s contract makes him low risk, he likely is not in high demand either.
Regardless, I think finding or adding a couple scoring wings will be on the team’s work list for this off-season.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Do you buy my assertion that the Hurricanes do not ‘have’ to do anything at goalie this off-season? Or do you think that the team must upgrade to take a next step?
2) Of the current group of wings not named Svechnikov or Teravainen, which do you think have a role to play in terms of more production in 2020-21? Who, if anyone, would you try to move via trade?
Go Canes!
As for the goalie situation, given the risk to team revenues next season a contract like Riemer’s is worth even more so it’s less likely we move him. Mrazek’s decision to bet on himself paid off and he’s been very good for us these last two years; still, we’d be selling high on him relative to a few years ago. A complicating factor is the Expansion Draft: we have to expose one goalie who’s signed past next season (or an RFA), so if we don’t plan on exposing Ned, then we’ll need to make a trade between now and then.
The bigger issue is Forward. To use a Matt-ism, “I am on record of saying” that we are likely to trade some defensive depth for more offense, and the declining Cap is going to free up even more options for us next season. I think we’ll make improvements even if just at the margins, which might be good enough. We have plenty of Cap space relative to other teams.
One thing to keep in mind: we are all at risk of suffering from “recency bias” because we didn’t score enough in the series against BOS; let’s remember that they are the best defensive team in the league. And, if they had beaten WAS in the last “warmup” game, or had won any of those warmup games for that matter, we would have faced WAS and not BOS in Round #1 and might never had faced a team with a defense that good throughout the playoffs. In that alternate universe, our offense depth might have been less of an issue or even a non-issue (like it was against NYR or against NYI last season). We had the 11th best offense in the league this year which is more than good enough to win. Four of the teams above us didn’t make it out of the qualifying round.
Before I write my own response let me say I agree with dmilleravid’s comments. They appear to me to be well thought out and make logical sense.
1) I think the “do nothing” mindset is too focused on 20-21. Eventually the organization needs a goalie to be part of the core. The large majority of successful teams, even more so actual Cup winners, have a goalie they drafted or who has been with the organization for 5 years. Maybe the Canes can be different, but the success of Philly and Vancouver so far this post-season seems to support the “internal” goalie case.
2) I am not a fan of trying every offseason to “find” that one player. It didn’t work this past season with Dzingel, Haula, and Gardiner. The deadline moves didn’t pay dividends in the post-season. An organization built from within almost always has better cohesion (I say this as someone who has hired, managed, and promoted numerous people). The Canes have already shipped out Roy and Kuokkanen. I would love to see Geekie given a shot at 2C—or Necas transition there. Maybe the scoring forward will be Bokk. Given games 4 & 5 against Boston, I would even be ok with Martinook being promoted to one of the top 2 lines. Then a player like Lorentz can be given a shot.
As dmiller points out, the Canes were pretty potent this season. Svech and Necas will likely get more goals, Aho seems capable of 50.
I would try to trade/move Gardiner (Bean needs to play).
ct, sensible comments in my opinion. Between you and dmilleravid you are reading my mind and saving others from having to read a separate blog by me.
Well said. I think trading Gauthier was a mistake for sure. He’s not going to be the next Ovechkin but he was on track to become a decent top 9 winger.
Lawrence aced the AHL last year. As we know that does no necessarily translate to taking the NHL by storm but he’s got potential.
This is a make or break year for Jake Bean. I’d sit Gardner some games if we can’t trade him.
I’d try to trade Gardner back to Tor for one of their forwards, even adding a pick or retaining some salary if the player is of sufficient quality, like Andreas Johnson or possibly Nylander.
But other than trading excess defense for a bit extra support up front I’d just focus on developing players. The Bruins are handling this extremely well.
breezy, some really good original thoughts. If this keeps up (dmiller, ct, and you), I’m done for the day as I can’t come up with much beyond you all have said. Looks like during the lockup Matt and all the contributors have worked on their writing and I’ve got some work to do to get up to speed.
I agree about the goalies. Unless Trader Don (Dundon actually) gets itchy, I say we stick with the goalies we have. I also agree the Canes need to work harder to develop a goalie internally. I’m not convinced Ned is the one.
I think the Canes are OK at wing. They’ll get more production from Necas there. He was just a rookie. I think Suzuki slots there initially as well. Trocheck is an upgrade at center for the Canes. No, he didn’t score a bunch, but lets see what a year under Brind’Amour can do for him. Geekie looks like a perfect 4C for next season. Strong down low and good on draws. Have no idea why you would want to move him to wing. He made the fourth line so much better. Who knows, maybe he moves up over time.
lessthan…, all good points. Your mention of Suzucki is most appropriate IMO. I don’t know enough about Geekie’s strengths and weaknesses, so I will ride with your thoughts here.
1. We are competent at goalie with Mrazek and Reimer, but recognizing we were looking at Lehner it is clear that O/M will look at an upgrade.
I really think the Ned situation is a bigger deal than you make it out to be. We are not going to run 3 goalies for long – you cannot cheat 1A and 1B out of practice time to make sure Ned gets his. Somebody has to move – and Ned may be the one. But if he is moved then we are looking at the 2021-22 season without a goalie in the wings and without a lot of money to attract a high-end one.
2. I truly believe that Necas stays on the wing – certainly for next season. Turbo came in as a center – he is best on the wing. Necas is the new Turbo – a high-end playmaking/scoring wing.
I really like the way Dzingel came alive in the playoffs. He became very noticeable, very active, and very effective. I think he is likely to do a lot better next season.
We now have the same Nino that the Wild traded to us. I do not expect a revival nor do I expect to see him traded unless we offer a sweetener that we do not have (or maybe Bean and Ned to get rid of Nino???).
I agree with you on Foegele and McGinn – and I am actually starting to think that McGinn has already peaked in his career. Just 3 years ago he was banging pucks against posts and that is hardly happening anymore (but can you really say with a straight face that he is not a finisher after last year’s Game 7 against WSH!!! LOL!).
Trocheck is a center – he won’t move to wing. Geekie is a center – he can improve his skating but that is low bar. But he is not a NHL wing.
Someone mentioned Bokk. We also have Suzuki. Both are high-end, but need seasoning in the AHL. But wait, will there even be an AHL next season???
Honestly right now, we are a little bit trapped unless we trade a name player – albatross contracts like Nino and Gardiner are really going to limit us.
raleightj, you sure capped off this topic. Really good ideas IMO. I’m going to have to up my research and polish up my writing skills to be relevant on this site based on reading all the comments so far.
thanks to Matt and all of you for some real good reading.