In yesterday’s Daily Cup of Joe, I listed some crazy stats resulting from the Hurricanes 5-1 start. The most improbable of them all might well be the team’s ability to go 5-1 with virtually nothing for scoring from a few of the team’s top offensive players.
In six games Sebastian Aho has zero assists and a lone empty net goal to his credit on the score sheet.
Nino Niederreiter has a few assists but is without a goal.
Teuvo Teravainen is actually off to a strong start offensively with two goals and four assists in six games, but all four of assists are on the power play.
The Hurricanes’ ability to win without production from its top line is a strong testament to the depth of the team at forward and maybe even more so how incredibly good the defense has been in contributing offense. But winning without help from Aho’s line will not be sustainable over the course of the full season.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe explores options to try to jump start Sebastian Aho and the first line that he leads.
Patience
The current trio of Teravainen, Aho and Niederreiter have produced before and the Aho/Niederreiter duo that is sputtering right now was among the team’s best during the winter surge last year. In addition, there have been signs of life of late. Niederreiter’s volume of scoring chances has been higher recently which suggests he could break through and also that Aho is generating some offense even if the results are sparse. And in terms of trying to give Aho and Niederreiter all of the support possible, Teravainen is a good option to add another capable offensive player to that line. So there is a good argument to be made for just being patient and trusting that ability with eventually win out.
The risk: The risk is that shackling two struggling players together in Aho and Niederreiter just makes it worse. As noted, Niederreiter has been unable to finish thus far which maybe just adds to the pressure on Aho. In addition, there is some chance that Teravainen catches the virus.
Andrei Svechnikov
Svechnikov’s scoring line is another early season oddity. His only goal is an empty-netter. For a player who theoretically entered the season as one of the team’s top finishers and with a 30-40 goal potential, his current goal scoring pace is meager. But on the other side of the ledger, Svechnikov has seven assists in only six games with many being of the skilled and pretty variety. In terms of trying to jump start Aho by virtue of changing his line mates, Svechnikov is easily the most intriguing possibility. He is finisher who has not put the puck in the net yet, so perhaps he can get Aho going in the assist column. And his assist total shows that he could also provide a boost in terms of generating scoring chances for his line mates.
The risk: The risk is upsetting Svechnikov’s current trajectory which is very good despite his assist-heavy scoring totals.
Separating Sebastian Aho and Nino Niederreiter
Either with or without pulling Svechnikov into the mix, separating Aho and Niederreiter could help both players who are no doubt pressing and squeezing the stick a little tight. I would not mess with Dzingel/Haula/Necas who are developing into a decent attacking third line. But the potential could be there to bump Niederreiter down to another line and give Aho a different mix on his wings.
The risk: I think the biggest risk with this is that Niederreiter heads deeper into the rut even if it helps Aho. My opinion of Niederreiter is that he is a capable complementary player with finishing ability but not so much the ability to create his own. As such, I think he more than any other player gets a boost from playing with Aho or other playmaking ability. It would be a shame to see Niederreiter continue to struggle and play his way permanently down the depth chart when better is possible.
Where I land
My inclination would be to tinker some with line combinations. Brind’Amour has had success with a style that mostly leans toward patience and riding slumps out, but personally I would be a bit more proactive with this situation. My first try would be to insert Svechnikov into Teravainen’s slot to see if make he can help get Aho and Niederreiter going at once. I like Svechnikov’s potential to be both a finisher for Aho and a scoring chance generator for Niederreiter.
What say you Canes fans?
1) To what degree do you attribute Aho and Niederreiter’s slow starts to simply being a small sample size early in the season versus legitimately being something to be concerned about?
2) Which of the three options above or something else would you try to get Aho and Niedderreiter going?
Go Canes!
1) An offensive slow start can be due to rust or other early season. When defensive play starts to slide, though, that is a bigger problem. While on the fence I am leaning towards “more than rust”.
2) when players are struggling it can be worth it to put them in the best position to be successful. Also, it is more difficult to get two guys going at once than one.
I agree that the third line should be kept together, it is working. The Hippocratic oath comes into play “first do no harm”.
Perhaps exchange Nino and Svechnikov, and put Aho between Turbo and Svechnikov, a new TSA line. Get Aho going on offense and have Nino play a defense first mode with opportunistic offense. Exchange back when ready.
As long as the winning continues I’m for letting them work it out. Nino is an experienced pro. He’s been through this before.
While I am concerned about Aho, I don’t think the panic button should be pushed yet. Yes, he was bad defensively on Saturday. The entire team was a step slow. Being on the road may be the tonic Aho needs. Less pressure than from having the fans at home.
If the Canes start stumbling then I think it’s time to make some changes.
I agree with lessthan … I’m willing to be patient since we’re winning and scoring a lot of goals. And I also agree with lessthan that we looked tired and slow against CBJ – always seemed a half-step behind the puck (except for Foegele, who played his best game so far) so that game has been the outlier of the season.
And looking at it from a different perspective: let’s say we’re 5-1 and Aho/NN and Svetch have been lighting it up; that would mean that the defensive would be contributing far less, and we might be hand-wringing over why are vaulted blue-line hasn’t gotten going. Given the choice between having depth and back-end scoring and having our top guys rolling, I’ll take what we have now all day long.
Aho and NN have had great chances that will eventually start going in. I’m not worried at all – yet.
My concerns with Aho isn’t statistical. It’s the eyeball test. He just doesn’t look the same player as last season.
I think you have to rely on fancy stats here but I don’t know they are saying right now. But is the TAN line getting high-quality 5×5 chances. If the answer is yes then you let them work it out. This is what RBA did last November and December. In spite of the poor record during those months he saw the chances were there – that is when you are patient.
If they are not getting the chances then it is time to make some changes.
But show me the stats first.
Per surgalt’s comment on Aho – the cameras have caught a very frustrated-looking version of him both on the ice and the bench (I saw a clip of Staal trying to calm him down once when Aho was talking under his breath after a shift).
We have heard of the sophomore jinx. Well, there is also the problem some players encounter when they get their first big contract. And the fact that Fishy got his under difficult circumstances, puts all the more pressure on the kid. He is still a kid. I think Roddy is doing what he thinks is right and will continue to do so. Keep in mind, all changes, no matter how slight will be taken very personally.
The expectations Fishy is putting on himself must be enormous. He hears criticism of his every move. Even when it isn’t there.
It is a critical time for him. If anyone can help him through this it is Roddy and the team. I am saying a prayer.