If you missed it yesterday, I recommend checking out the interesting collection of comments in the Monday Coffee Shop. The open forum offers an interesting collection of comments spanning a number of Hurricanes comments from the Canes and Coffee Community.
I will undoubtedly dig into this and other similar topics in more detail as we get closer to the start of training camp and then again after we see preseason action, but in a fit of missing hockey, I took to scribbling out the Hurricanes forward situation over the weekend.
Things can change, but I view nine slots as pretty fixed. Barring an injury, I would be very surprised not to see all of Jeff Skinner, Sebastian Aho, Teuvo Teravainen, Jordan Staal, Victor Rask, Marcus Kruger, Elias Lindholm, Justin Williams and Lee Stempniak in the opening day lineup. That makes nine forwards and at least based on what position the nine played in 2016-17, it leaves one opening for each forward position. In addition, the lineup has a few players with positional flexibility such that they could move to make things work.
The assumed starting point
Despite being the third center nearly assured of a roster spot, I actually view Kruger as being the anchor of a checking-focused line that is one of the bottom two lines (a 3A and 3B if you will) that is used somewhat situationally. So my starting point is that there is a hole at center on a 3A scoring-focused line and that the two openings at wing are on Kruger’s 3B checking-focused line.
So math has the openings as a scoring-capable C3 and defensively sound LW4 and RW4.
Penciled in right now
Entering training camp, I see Derek Ryan as penciled into the C3 slot and Joakim Nordstrom and Josh Jooris penciled into the LW4 and RW4 slots. Ryan had a good 2016-17 season and has enough of an offensive tool bag to be a contributing player on a third line that can provide good depth scoring. Nordstrom and Jooris meet the minimum baseline of being defensively sound and penalty kill capable which I think is the table stakes to be considered for Kruger’s line.
Who is on the outside looking in?
If one tallies up the players in the lineup and players penciled in, it makes a full lineup of 12 forwards.
On the outside looking in right now are Brock McGinn, Phil Di Giuseppe and a list of rookie dark horses with scoring upside that includes Julien Gauthier, Janne Kuokkanen, Aleksi Saarela, Lucas Wallmark, Warren Foegele, Nicolas Roy, Valentin Zykov, Martin Necas and anyone else who can ‘wow’ with scoring upside in training camp.
What does it take for one of the kids to push into the lineup?
The surest path to pushing up the depth chart ahead of schedule and making the 2017-18 NHL roster is to show the potential to provide significant scoring. The Hurricanes finished 20th overall in scoring in 2016-17 and added only Justin Williams in terms of higher-end scoring fire power. If one of the kids can show that he could be ready to post 20+ goals at the NHL level, Coach Bill Peters will take notice, watch closely and consider deviating from the base plan to boost the offense.
In addition to seeking out higher-end scoring, there are a couple players who have the potential to seize a fourth-line roster slot by replacing the defense currently on the wings and adding even a modest scoring boost.
So where are the battles?
I see two different battle grounds for roster slots.
Derek Ryan’s offensively-leaning C3 slot.
Right now, Ryan has a slot because the Hurricanes did not add a scoring center this summer, and he was the best in that role in 2016-17. Two prospects potentially have the skill set to steal this slot with a strong training camp. First is Janne Kuokkanen (Ranked #3 among forward prospects) who I have pegged as a dark horse and rapid riser. (See my article last week that had the gall to compare him to Sebastian Aho.) Another is Nicolas Roy (Ranked #5 among forward prospects) who I think is farther away from NHL-ready but is intriguing because of how he has rounded his game out over the past two seasons in Canadian juniors. Finally, Lucas Wallmark (Ranked #4 among forward prospects) is another player who is rising after a strong second half of 2016-17 in Charlotte. He brings the advantage of a full season of AHL experience and a few NHL games to boot. Similar to Kuokkanen and Roy, the task for him is to show in training camp that he is a better pivot for a third line that will be asked to score.
If either of these players looks capable enough defensively and in transition and can show offensive upside along the way, he immediately garners consideration. If neither looks ready or looks to be an offensive upgrade over Ryan, Ryan keeps the slot as the default and Kuokkanen and Roy take a more step-wise development path up into the AHL to start the 2017-18-season.
Joakim Nordstrom’s fourth-line checking role penalty kill duty
Nordstrom starts as the default at left wing on the fourth line because he is a proven and solid part of the penalty and is reliable and sound defensively in all three zones at even strength. That is a fancy way of saying he has a special teams role and will not kill you otherwise.
But with a ceiling in the neighborhood of 20 points on a team that needs more scoring, I think Nordstrom is the most vulnerable of the three players I have penciled into the last three forward slots. Important to note is that Nordstrom is not so much vulnerable to players who can just provide more raw offense. Rather, to unseat him from the LW4 slot, someone would need to first replace what he brings as a sound checking line forward and penalty killer and THEN add some offense. So I do not see a higher-end offensive player like Gauthier or Saarela being considered here. Rather, I think a player who can match Nordstrom defensively and take his penalty kill time could win out.
The slot is a natural place for what could be the most hotly contested roster slot in training camp with Brock McGinn and Phil Di Giuseppe throwing their hats into the ring and Warren Foegele (Ranked #7 among forward prospects) also entering as a rookie dark horse who has exactly the skill set required to replace what Nordstrom does.
Josh Jooris’ fourth-line checking role and penalty kill duty
Jooris’ situation is somewhat similar to Nordstrom’s. He is penciled in as a safe and sound defensive player who is also expected to be a regular on the penalty kill. He maybe rates a tad higher than Nordstrom because he can also take draws and play center which makes him more flexible in terms of piecing together penalty kill units. In addition, the most-ready competition for fourth line slots leans left wing which puts Nordstrom more in the cross hairs.
That said, Jooris is another player who has modest upside which makes him vulnerable if someone else can fill his role and offer more scoring to boot.
What about the other young guns?
Martin Necas (Ranked #2 among forward prospects): All accounts thus far suggest that he is a talented young player with huge upside but will need time to develop before reaching the NHL. To win a roster spot, he would need to blow the doors off in training camp and make Francis and Peters completely reconsider what they thought of him entering training camp.
Julien Gauthier (Ranked #1 among forward prospects): The path to an NHL roster slot for Gauthier is having a preseason that suggests he could be a 20-25 goal scorer without being a defensive liability. Based on his skill set, that is not that far-fetched. The disadvantage that he has is that the natural opening for a scoring in the top 9 is Ryan’s slot at center. But an injury to a top 9 wing would change the math, and a scoring strong preseason could push Peters to consider shuffling things around to make room for another wing.
Aleksi Saarela (Ranked #6 among forward prospects): His situation is similar to Gauthier’s. The path to the NHL in 2017-18 could be helped by a preseason injury to a top 9 wing; otherwise, it is paved with high-end offense in preseason.
Valentin Zykov (Ranked #9 among forward prospects): Zykov is the third of three that I would consider a possibility for a top 9 wing slot. His skill set as a player who lives in/around the crease is needed in the Hurricanes lineup, but I think it takes a huge preseason to make Peters consider shaking up what he already has on the wings in the top 9.
Depth!
If you count them up, I just pulled in 10 players with at least a dark horse chance of pushing onto the opening day roster and also set up a couple slots that could see three or more players in the mix. The situation is a huge testament to the growing depth and the future ahead at the forward position.
My 2 cents
I think Peters and Francis voted strongly in favor of safe and sound for the fourth line when they added Josh Jooris and Marcus Kruger. In the process, they used up a couple roster slots that might otherwise have been available for the kids. In addition, the forward ranks are pretty full with 13 players on one-way contracts and another with NHL experience and the need to clear waivers to go to the AHL in Phil Di Giuseppe.
But the team needs more scoring relative to the 2016-17 season…
If Kuokkanen can do what he has been doing all summer (prospect camp and World Junior Summer Showcase) at the NHL level, I think he has a reasonable chance of stealing Derek Ryan’s slot.
I also really like Warren Foegele as a deep dark horse largely because I think he can replace what Nordstrom does but possibly bring more offense to boot. The checkpoint for Foegele will be watching to see if he is sound defensively especially in transition and also if he receives and looks well playing shorthanded in preseason. If he does those two things, he mostly replicates Nordstrom’s positives but also brings a bit more size, rugged play and scoring upside too.
I really think its takes a HUGE training camp for any of the other inexperienced wings with high scoring ceilings to push onto the opening day lineup, but I do think they could see NHL ice time if/when top 9 slots open up because of injuries.
What say you Caniacs?
Do you think acquiring Marcus Kruger and Josh Jooris signifies that Peters and Francis prioritize safe and sound over scoring upside for the fourth line such that the kids will be deemed too risky?
Of the slots that I called “penciled in” (or others if you think they are in play), which players do you think are most vulnerable?
Who do you like, if anyone, to surprise from off the depth chart currently?
Go Canes!
Your take is in line with what I have been thinking during this slow period. A huge training camp is likely the only thing to displace a veteran.
The one addition I would have is Roy as 4th line RW. He is outstanding defensively, great on face offs, and could be used on second PP unit. I am not convinced Jooris is safe, his salary is half of Ryan Nordstrom.
1. To start the season, yes. We historically do not have the best starts and need to reverse this. Having key veterans on the team, especially by adding Jooris and Kruger will help this goal. Of course, anything can happen during the season and injuries and trades may occur…but I think Peters game plan is to ride the vets early and allow the kids to step up down the road in the event an opportunity arises.
2. Derek Ryan may be most vulnerable to being unseated. His production is key. If it’s not all there we could see a budding winger step up and a current wing slide to center.
3. At some point during the season, I can see Foegele as 4W, Kuokkanen as 3W, Goat Man as 3W. Not all at once, but these are who I see making at least an appearance.
First, you can take Necas out of the equation. Yesterday RF announced he will be returning to Finland next season. The other option was the OHL – suggesting no serious consideration for the NHL this season – but we will see him in Charlotte at the end of the AHL season.
I think Kruger and Jooris represent what BP said at the season-end press conference – a preference for “can play in the NHL” vs. “may be able to play”. I expect that Peters will ride the veterans in this critical season for the team – so I don’t see a rookie breaking into the lineup. Nor do I see much opportunity for the rookies this season, even with injury, at least until much later in the season.
I don’t think Ryan is at all vulnerable starting this season – BP won’t start a rookie over a player he has known for years and who has demonstrated he can be effective – at times very effective – at the NHL level. Plus I think he knows this is a big season for him – I don’t think he can reasonably expect to be with the Canes after this season so he will be playing for notice amongst other teams.
I think McGinn and PDG are the two forwards looking in, and I do expect that PDG will be put on waivers and sent down at the end of training camp. An injury to a center will move Lindy to the center and an adjustment along the wings with McGinn, and an injury on the wings makes McGinn an everyday player.
The 2018-19 season is when our forward depth in Charlotte starts to make a significant contribution.
You can throw this whole perspective out if there is a major injury in the TC or PS (like Staal’s broken leg a few years ago).
I’m going along with what Peters stated in his joint press conference with Ron Francis way back. He stated he was going with NHL tested players and not going with AHLer’s filling out the roster. This means Nordstrom, Jooris, and Kruger on 4th line (barring injury), and Derek Ryan at center on the 3rd line. If later in the year we suffer injuries or are dying in the standings he will make changes and be forced to bring up youngsters from the AHL. Both Peters and Francis have stated what they are going to do, and they have been following through with that game plan throughout the offseason. No reason for me, in all my infinite wisdom, to think they will do anything other than what they have said they will do.
Oooh some respectful disagreement on the message boards, I like it. As it stands, I do agree with live_free_or_die, in that Derek Ryan is absolutely vulnerable. While I agree with raleightj, that Ryan knows this is a big season, what I feel we saw last season was Ryan performing at almost the height of his abilities. If he even slightly regresses, his spot in the lineup becomes tenuous. Further, with the high end offensive talent coming up to challenge for his spot, combined with the Teravainen capability of playing center, I think you bring Gauthier and Saarela into this conversation along with Roy, Wallmark and Kuokkanen as well.
It will take a monster preseason by any of these rookies to knock Ryan out of his spot, but with 5 rookies (not even including Foegele, who is still my top choice of the rookies to grab a roster spot) all trying to do just that? It’s a very plausible scenario. If we see a breakout player in camp, I think Ryan is the first one to lose his lineup spot.
I say all this because I think that defense-centric 4th line is going to be insanely good as a shutdown trio.
I think a “monster preseason” will put them on the radar for BP and let him know what he has if the need arises. But I don’t see the DR’s place at risk unless he is unable to perform at a high level through the course of the season.
Agree with all…. however, if one of the new wings really kill in the preseason, it would not surprise me to see someone take Stemper’s place. This is not a knock on him, however, there were times last year he was not really there. I could see one of the big young wings replace him on a line with Skinny.
The two RWs do seem most at risk. I believe Jooris was seen as cheap right shot option for fourth. However if Roy is strong in camp then Jooris is expendable. Roy is excellent at face offs and that is one thing Kruger is only average at, so having Roy for defensive zone face offs is valuable.
If Gauthier lives up to hype, then I think he gets shot at third and Stempniak slots down to fourth.
So IMO battle is between Roy and Goat.
1) Yes. BP wanted NHL players, not AHL players who might be ready. He made that pretty clear, so any of the prospects will need to be crazy good to replace the NHL players already on the list.
2) I think you nailed it. I would view Nordstrom as most vulnerable. Ryan is pretty good, so I see somebody replacing him as a pretty tall order. I believe he will get even better. He scores, so do not be surprised if he excels.
3) I still think Zykov is much better then he was rated. With his net front presence he very well could be competing for a NHL spot this year.
Just because it’s August and it’s speculation time, I would consider retooling the roster with two trades:
1. Trade Noah for Sam Reinhard (Buffalo really want him http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Michael-Pachla/A-Sam-ReinhartNoah-Hanifin-trade-makes-a-lot-of-sense/209/86981
and I don’t think the Canes can afford him if he plays well and if he plays badly the Canes don’t need him). If I were RF I would try to hold out for a little sweetener in that deal too.
2. Trade either Rask or Kruger to Pit for a solid 4-d man, either Mata or Domoulin. Pit is desperately looking for a third line center with Collen gone.
We have too many #2 and #3 centers right now and this would retool the team to having a potentially good #1 center and a reasonable defense, keeping the slot open for Fleury to rise up and claim a top 4 slot.
I also think we should either put full trust in Ryan or keep the door open for one of the Checkers / prospects to rise up and take a center slot.
I think Reinhard is a very good playmaking center, of the variety that the Canes need.
I am also bored, because it’s August, so I like to entertain wild speculations.