As we trot closer to Labor Day weekend which means training camp is right around the corner, I have been spending my Canes hockey thinking cycles thinking about individual players and where they might fit in the scheme of things for this year.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe considers a small group of players that I seem to be higher on than the general consensus.
Victor Rask
No doubt he had a tough 2017-18 season and needs to score at a much higher pace to justify his $4 million salary that is on the high side even for a third line role. But aside from the scoring struggles especially early in the year, one thing that stood out to me about Rask is how remained pretty steady defensively. That is to say the rest of his game did not collapse under the weight of pressure to score more. For the 2018-19 season, I think Rask at a minimum offers a steady veteran center to backstop what will certainly be a young lineup. My best guess is that the team’s centers on opening night will be Sebastian Aho, Jordan Staal, Martin Necas and Victor Rask. In such a scenario, Rask maybe slots as the fourth center, but I think it is an important role. If the lineup shakes out like that, Jordan Staal takes as many of the tough match up minutes as possible, but especially on the road, the team needs a line to slot behind his for when teams steer their scorers away from Staal. The inability of Kruger and company to do exactly that in 2017-18 was one of a few Achilles’ heels that the team had. Rather than a fourth line that sees limited ice time, I think Brind’Amour could deploy a Rask-centered fourth line more as a defensive 2B behind Staal. That would leave Necas’ line very likely with Svechnikov to be sheltered a bit and used opportunistically for scoring. So getting back to the point, I think Rask is pretty well-suited for such a role. Ideally, his scoring rebounds to mid-40s but even if it does not, I still think he serves a useful purpose with how the Hurricanes lineup is likely to be constructed.
Haydn Fleury
Some are down on Fleury because he has yet to meet higher-end expectations the come with being drafted #7 overall. Fleury has taken a step-wise path to reaching the NHL and played a modest role in 2017-18. So the negative side of the coin for Fleury is that at least so far he does not project to be the type of player who drives wins. In addition, his 0 goals and 8 assists in 67 games scream depth defenseman as well. But lost in wishing that Fleury was farther along in his development than he is four years after being drafted #7 overall is the fact that he jumped straight into the NHL with no experience and was at least serviceable in a fairly big role. He spent more time in the top 4 than out of it and maybe did not have the greatest support playing quite a bit next to Justin Faulk whose 2017-18 season was not great defensively. If I skip expectations based on draft pedigree and also do not consider future projections, I would say that Fleury enters the 2018-19 as a player who is physically capable at the NHL level in terms of size and skating ability and who is capable as a third pairing defenseman and even capable of filling in in the top 4 without being a significant liability. Again, that is maybe not what was hoped for, but Fleury is a useful player in terms of filling out the last pairing and even providing capable depth in the event of injuries. On top of that, it is not unreasonable to think that Fleury could improve in only his second season at the NHL level.
Janne Kuokkanen
With a strong 10-game NHL audition by Valentin Zykov after a season in which he led the AHL in scoring and also a short but also impressive NHL audition by Warren Foegele, optimism is legitimately running high on multiple rookies cracking the opening day lineup. The draft lottery luck that landed Andrei Svechnikov and also the strong 2017-18 season by Martin Necas make for two more highly-touted rookies to watch in September. The result of all of the rapid risers is that Janne Kuokkanen has faded into the background. Competing in the same training camp last fall as all of these players except Svechnikov, Kuokkanen emerged as the best rookie forward and earned October NHL ice time for his efforts. (Though I do think Necas has a higher ceiling than Kuokkanen in the long run, I do think Kuokkanen was the better of the two last fall in training camp.) Kuokkanen started a bit slow in the AHL, but just as one would hope he picked up steam as the season wore on. He could enter training camp ranked fifth or lower in terms of forward prospects likely to make the team, but he ultimately emerged as the best last season and should return another year stronger, faster, etc. I view him as competing for the same slots that Zykov and Foegele will be competing for, and I do not view Kuokkanen as a significant underdog in this roster battle.
Honorable mention goes to Phil Di Giuseppe who I have generally been higher on than the consensus for some time (and generally been wrong so far). If Di Giuseppe continues to produce almost nothing offensively like he did through most of the 2017-18 season, he is correctly pegged as a #13 type depth forward. But I continue to think that Di Giuseppe possesses enough skill that could have a higher gear. I have given up predicting more from Di Giuseppe offensively, but at the same time I do not view it as an impossibility.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Do you agree or disagree that the Caniac Nation might be discounting these three players a bit too much entering training camp?
2) Do you have other players who fans are maybe down on that you think are better than currently rated? (There’s the opening for someone to pound the gavel for either of the goalies.)
Go Canes!
If you take away what he’s being paid, Rask is a great 4th line center. If RBA organizes the lines with two scoring and two checking, then Rask slotted as the 2nd checking center makes a lot of sense. But, a budget team like Canes can’t really afford to pay their 4th line center $4mil/year so if he doesn’t find more offense to his game, I feel certain that Dundon will move him before next season.
I think there could be a very interesting battle for rookies on the team. I think Kuokkanen and Saarela are definitely being lost in the discussion. People seem certain that Aho will play center – I would say it’s likely, but also not certain. RBA said something this summer that indicated he preferred Aho on the wing. If so, there could be two rookies starting center for Canes on opening night. Necas seems like a lock. Might Saarela make an all Finns top scoring line? But even with Aho at C, it’s possible Saarela or KK outperform him in pre-season.
I also feel Saarela is a forgotten asset. He is a sniper much like Skinner but not a defensive liability as was Skinner. I watched him many times in Charlotte and saw many flashes of greatness. Whether that relates to the NHL is yet to be seen.
I also am high on Wallmark more so than Kuokkanen. I think Kuokkanen needs more seasoning.
It will be interesting and fun to see how things shake out for those trying to make the big club.
I am still concerned about our goal tending as a chink in our armor. Hopefully one of the two will be better than average.
Victor Rask is definitely being discounted by Caniac Nation; many have Wallmark rising up to replace him. We weren’t told this and may never know the answer, but it’s possible that the shoulder injury that ended his season had been negatively affecting him for much longer than anyone let on. That might have led to a falloff in his offense. It would certainly be a bonus if he regained his form and rising trajectory from two seasons ago.
Fleury is still young for a defenseman. He’s never going to have the offensive flash but that doesn’t mean he can’t be a solid middle-pairing guy. I hope he continues to develop his snarl and lays a few people out who try skating across the crease unaware. We need more of that and he can bring it.
Kuokkanen and PDG just seems lost in the shuffle of our impressive depth. There may be far more traffic along I-85 between RDU and CLT for hockey players than there’s been in recent years. Too many hungry players fighting for ice time is a good thing.
Lastly, and assuming he’s still here, I’d say Faulk is dumped on a little too much including by me. Nothing seemed to work on defense last year and he bore the brunt of the criticism, rightly so as a “C”. Given that there’s more NHL experience around him this year and others on D (like Dougie) can carry more of the offensive load from the Blue Line, expectations will be lower and that’s probably a good thing for Faulk. He’ll be better this year.
dmiller…you have hit the nail on the head. I agree 100% with your assessments so won’t just repeat them.
I agree about Fleury. He was a rookie and played as well as a few other defensemen on the team. I think a little less Bill Peters in his ear will help as well.
I’m on the fence about Rask. It’s pretty bad when your coach calls you out publicly on effort. Part of that is on Peters, but it’s on Rask, too. It’s a given the Rask contract is horrible, but he can be a useful player as he is solid defensively and good on draws. I hope he grows up and brings it every day, but if he doesn’t I would eat the contract and put him on the bus in Charlotte and go with Wallmark.
I’ve not seen enough of Kuokkanen to have an opinion. After getting a cup of coffee in the NHL last year I expected a bit more from him in Charlotte. We’ll see how he does in camp.
One player everyone is down on that could do a 180 is Justin Faulk. He may not be here by October, but if he tightens up his defensive game a bit and gets his offensive game going he could be an all-star again. He still has great upside as a NHL player.
Rask was back skating with other teammates according to a Canes tweet yesterday. If he is healthy he will be in line for a big rebound season. A few problems last year included an injured shoulder, lack of consistent line mates and tough relationship with coach. These are not excuses but just context for a tough year. I like Rask’s game and think it would be unfortunate if he is asked to be a checking line center with 8-10 minutes a night:
Fleury is a very good young defenseman. Slavin and Pesce stepped into the league and made it look easy. That is the exception not the norm. Fleury was 21 last year and would have been better if consistently paired with TVR and allowed to grow into the league. It didn’t happen. I’m really high on Fleury and his future.
I saw Kuokkanen in the world juniors. I didn’t think he looked that good. Perhaps I was comparing him to Necas and that is not fair. I don’t see him on the Canes this year but perhaps I am wrong.
Matt – your narrative on Rask has been narrative on Rask since the end of last season. He also saw a game or two as the 4th line center and, bum shoulder and all, handled it well – even adding offensive park (to Nordy too!). He is worth $4M if he can play that role effectively this season – certainly a cut above other teams’ 4th line centers and that has value.
And I agree with you – mostly – on Fleury. I actually think his offensive game is more underrated than it should be. Having seen play 5 or 6 games in Charlotte (two seasons ago and a playoff game last season) his offensive game is solid and it looked to me more like he was afraid to make a mistake as opposed to be limited. Aspects of his game in Charlotte included great passing, the ability to quickly move the puck out of the D zone, moving the puck and scoring from the point, and joining the rush – all of which was evident last season but muted. I think his game is there – all the stills and video I am seeing of the informal skates show him with a lot more confidence this season than I ever saw in him last season. If he doesn’t get crowded out I expect people will be surprised by what he will do.
As big a fan as I was of Kuokk two seasons ago, I am less so now – I think he is a guy who will be passed. Other players in Charlotte have more of what the Canes need at center and wing. That said I think there is NHL ice in his future but I am not seeing it with the Canes this season.
Matt, I agree with your more optimistic view of Rask and Fleury. I’m still hopeful about Kuokkinen but don’t know how he compares with the other prospects at this point and whether he will get a shot in the NHL anytime soon.
A couple of days ago, in trying to figure out reasonable expectations for current Canes’ prospects, I went back and looked at how Rask looked in the AHL and in his first couple of years with the Canes. There are a couple of interesting things I noticed. First, Rask has scored at the same rate in the NHL (0.50) as he did in the AHL (0.51). I thought that wasn’t supposed to happen with prospects. I don’t know what to make of this in Rask’s case but it’s interesting. Second, I suspect we’d all be pretty happy if each member of the trio of Zykov, Svechnikov and Necas matches Rask’s productivity in his second year in the NHL (21 g, 27 a, 48 pts). A combined 63 g should help make up for the loss of Skinner. Things wouldn’t look so bright if the rookie trio matched Rask’s rookie year (11, 22, 33). I don’t know what to make of all this in terms of forecasts for the rookies but it is a reminder that Rask has been productive in the NHL.
I think it’s striking how much better Rask looked in his first years in the NHL vs. McGinn and diGiuseppe. They look faster and more energetic than Rask and outplay him in some areas, but in terms of scoring, McGinn’s best year (16, 14, 30 in 80 games) is inferior to Rask’s worst year (14, 17, 31 in 71 g), both last season. We’re optimistic about McGinn and down on Rask. Scoring isn’t everything but the Canes need scoring desperately. Also, Rask is a center and the Canes don’t have a lot of proven centers to replace him if he leaves.
So at least for the Canes’ current situation, Rask is undervalued, especially if injuries account for his recent slide from a strong second year in the NHL.
Wallmark led in scoring – 55 TPS,
Zykov – 54, also W – 45 gms,
Z – 63 gms!
Yet you ignore Wallmark? WTF
LET’S SEE HOW THAT WORKS?
I have felt the same way for a long time about Wallmark. He dominated Checkers team stats in points per game, yet is hardly ever mentioned as NHL ready compared to his teammates. Mr. Cellophane for sure.
Every player will have to be re-evaluated in the absence of Bill Peters.
I also find it strange how we are so high on Necas and Andrei, two guys with awesome numbers but coming in with no NHL or AHL experience but barely mention Walmark, who has been tearing it up in the AHL.
I hope all 3 of them tear it up with the Canes, but I am high on Walmark’s potential and think he could be one of the more exciting playrs to be evaluated during the preseason.
In fact I’d replace Kuokkanen with Walmark on this list, though I hope Kuokkanen is yet another player to step up and prove he belongs in the NHL, it just feels like he is fading rather than rising.
I think Rask and Fleury can have a big year and I think )this= Just in Faulk may get his game back.
The latest rumors claim the Canes did not get good enough offers for him, )and based on what they got for Skinner those offers bad), so he is most likely back in a Canes uniform, and I hope he gets his mojo back.
I’m also curious about some of the college kids forwards, some are older, stronger, and did really well last year. I am convinced we will have at least one major flop in the players we expect to do well but one dark horse candidate rise up from out of nowhere.
That is what makes sports fun to watch, the story is a little predictable but far from certain.
Good calls on Lucas Wallmark and Justin Faulk.
I would put Wallmark a bit in the same category as Kuokkanen. He had an incredibly good season in the AHL in 2017-18 and projects to be on the cusp of NHL-ready. But with more exciting, newer prospects in the mix, he tends to get overlooked. Whereas I think Kuokkanen battles Zykov and Foegele for a wing slot, I think Wallmark could push into the picture if Necas is not ready or if there an injury at center. Wallmark is not really the type who would play center or wing like Kuokkanen.
As for Faulk, I was down on Faulk’s defense early in the 2017-18 season well before it became trendy and now nearly the consensus. He is puzzling in that early in his career, he seemed to be a lock to be a solid, physical top 4 maybe not with a ton of offense. Then Sekera left and the scoring appeared out of nowhere, but his defense swooned. I think it is actually very simple. He lacks the 3-step quickness that players like Slavin and Pesce have and that is nearly required in today’s NHL. I do not think his case is as simple as rebounding or bouncing back mentally. Rather, I think it requires finding another gear in short races. Without that, a defenseman is forced to defend passively and when you do that against good NHL scoring lines they eat you up.
Anyway, great to see additional/different opinions as always. The comments continue to be the best part of the site. Thanks to all of the Coffee Shop regulars for making that the case!
I can’t judge this myself, but I noticed in the discussion of Canes’ prospects at The Athletic that Corey Pronman answered a question about Wallmark. He doesn’t think Wallmark is fast enough. He also says it remains to be seen if Zykov can skate well enough to make it in the NHL. All things considered, his review of Canes’ prospects was sobering. He thinks we have one elite prospect (best 10% of players at his position in the league, Svechnikov) and one high-end prospect (possibly first line, Necas). But Pronman doesn’t think the Canes have any prospects in his Very Good category. He thinks we have a bunch of Legit prospects and Have a Chance prospects. It was that big hole in the Very Good category that knocked the Canes down to 4th in the ratings despite having Svechnikov and Necas. I think in Pronman’s eyes, a bunch of Canes’ prospects have fallen from grace, including Bean and Gauthier.
There’s no doubt we’ve got a bunch of prospects who have done really well in the AHL, led by Wallmark, Zykov and Foegele. The doubt is about whose skill translates to the NHL. I can’t judge. Any opinions?
I have expressed concerns about Wallmarks quickness previously. So far, he hasn’t demonstrated the ability to create or react-and-prevent separation at the NHL level. With all of the starts and stops and changes of direction on elite teams he starts to look stationary.
Since quickness has a lot to do with genetics, it is the guys with quickness that I get excited about, sometimes too soon.
Vision and finishing are also things that a player has a certain band with physical limits, where you either have it or you don’t.
Necas has the amazing quickness and vision, Svechnikov the quickness and finishing.
I’ve seen similar quickness and finishing with Foegele, and quickness and vision with Kuokkanen.
The rest can be taught, and that’s where RBA comes in. Bring in the kids that are in the right ranges for non-teachable things and then teach them the rest.
There are of course other “range” factors – going all out every shift, ability to learn, etc.
I am surprised that Pronman didn’t rate any of our prospects “very good”, I wonder what drove that assessment.
Perhaps off topic, but one thing that frustrated me about BPs system was how straight-line it was. Players would reverse the puck with a pass but very little with changes of direction.
As we get younger and quicker I look for a transition from a “north-south” game to more of a popcorn machine game.
I think Pronman’s labels are very conservative. Hardly anybody is “elite” and few are “high-end.” “Very good” means top-six forward/top-four defenseman. Legit means will play in the NHL but probably not in a top role but “could get there.” He considers five Canes’ prospects Legit. So the total for the Canes for his top four categories is seven prospects. He thinks ten Canes’ prospects have a chance. Six might be NHL depth, including McKeown. He doesn’t list Luke Martin at all and in answer to a question, said Martin is not an NHL player. It’s kind of hard to accept that out of 23 Canes’ prospects Pronman reviews, only seven are legit or better in his eyes.
Pronman’s opinion is sobering. Here’s a sobering fact. Go back and look at the 2016 draft. Pick 13 Jake Bean, Pick 14 Charlie MacAvoy, Pick 21 Julien Gauthier, Pick 23 Henrik Borgstrom. The jury’s out on all these prospects except MacAvoy. Wish the Canes had gone for him instead of Bean. Borgstrom hasn’t proved anything but he’s gone from late 1st round pick to elite prospect in Pronman’s eyes while Bean and Gauthier have gone the other way. Florida and Boston can miss too but they seem to be really good judges of talent. The Canes have gotten better but Hanifin, Lindholm, Bean and Gauthier don’t look like great picks at this point and Fleury looks like an NHL player but not a top pairing D. It looks as though the Canes’ could have drafted better with a lot of their prime picks in the last several drafts. A lot of pressure is on Svechnikov and Necas because the other five 1st round picks were disappointing in different degrees.
I’ve been a fan of Rask for a long time and remain so. My feeling is that his shoulder was worse than he let on and affected him throughout last season and perhaps even toward the end of the season prior. And to all who think Rask is overpaid, I’d urge you to look for comps. 40 point centers get paid $4 million a year; it’s the going rate. My guess is he’ll start in the middle on the 4th line unless Aho can’t handle 1C duties or Necas isn’t ready for the NHL (both possibilities). He’ll also get a fair amount of PP time, so his offensive numbers might not suffer as much as some would think.
I’ve been a big Janne Kuokkanen fan since he was drafted and remain one. What most don’t realize is that he just turned 20 this past May. He likely still needs to add a bit of muscle if he wants to be NHL ready. He’s shifty and more of a distributor than a shooter (but has a nice shot). Interestingly, Cliff Pu, whom we just got in the Jeff Skinner trade was the beneficiary of some of Kook’s passing largesse. He’ll make the NHL, but I think 2019-20 is a more realistic target year.
Fluery, in my mind, is still developing and will likely surprise this year if, and only if, one of TVR or Faulk gets moved. Otherwise he’ll play big minutes in Charlotte. There’s no sense in having him sit in the press box in Raleigh when he could play 1st line minutes in Charlotte. In either case, patience with him will benefit all. This also brings up the problem of too many defensemen in the system of similar age that we’ll need to address over the next 12 months. I’m not confident of any blueliner prospect in our system not named Luke Martin, Adam Fox, Roland McKeown, Trevor Carrick, Jake Bean and possibly Michael Fora. That’s 6 guys who probably are now or will soon be NHL ready. We currently have 7 NHL blueliners (including the aforementioned Fleury) on our roster. Something’s going to have to give.
I have no doubt that Zykov will be better in the NHL than most anticipate. I also think that one of Rask or Wallmark will be going in the next 12 months. Some combination of Faulk, Rask, Wallmark, Di Giuseppe, defensive prospects, and/or picks will be moved for “ready now” assets or longer term futures. Meantime I expect Foegele to continue his climb to the NHL roster. Matt, you and I can agree to disagree on whether he’s ready for the NHL, including his ability on the PK. Finally, if injuries hit the forward corps, I expect Saarela to get a good look in anybody’s absence. I think he likely steps up as the leading goal scorer in Charlotte this season.