If you are just getting back into the swing of things for Canes hockey with the start of the playoffs now only five days away, you can always catch up on recent coverage by checking out the chronological list of articles HERE.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe continues on the playoff theme and identifies three players who I think are most critical to the Carolina Hurricanes’ playoff success.
Sebastian Aho
In his first NHL playoffs, Sebastian Aho was productive and good. But in both the Capitals series and the Bruins series that ushered the Canes out of the playoffs, the other teams’ best players were better than Aho and his line. In the NHL, depth and balance matters, but at the same time playoff series are very often decided by which team’s best players are best in the series. Because of that, the playoffs are often players climb the last notch on the ladder going from being very good to elite. In his second playoffs, I think one of the areas for upside for the Canes is if Aho’s line which is currently loaded with talent with Teravainen and Svechnikov joining him can go from being capable of holding its own against the NHL’s best to bettering them. If Aho and his line can make that leap, I think they could carry the team deep into the playoffs.
Petr Mrazek
Goaltending can often be a bit erratic early in the season when goalies are trying to find a rhythm and consistency. With the four-month layoff, the restart could be very much like early season hockey for many players but with much higher stakes. Teams whose goalies can parachute directly into playoff hockey and be up to speed will have a decided advantage in the playoffs, and I fully expect that a team or two will be eliminated largely because their goalie(s) cannot find top gear quickly enough. As such, I think Petr Mrazek and his ability to hit the ground running will play a critical role in the Canes’ playoff success. With James Reimer likely to play one of the games in the back-to-back set for games two and three, he is also eligible to be the hot goalie that the Canes need even though Mrazek will likely get first shot.
Sami Vatanen
In maybe taking Jaccob Slavin for granted a bit because of his steadiness, I think Sami Vatanen could be the key to the blue line. With Pesce on the roster (though not in Toronto yet) but not likely to help until the second half of the playoffs, Vatanen could be key to making the Canes’ second defense pairing steady and reliable. The other players likely to (Brady Skjei and Jake Gardiner) can be a bit erratic. Gardiner struggled early in the season though was better toward the end of the abbreviated 2019-20 season. And my first impression of Skjei was meh or eh. The mobility and physical skill set is clearly there, but his attention to detail can be lacking at times. But either Skjei or Gardiner bring upside offensive and in terms of advancing the puck and helping the Canes attack in transition. So if Vatanen can mesh with one of those two, help them play to their upside potential and maybe help tidy things up a bit defensively, the Canes become a solid and deep team defensively on the back end. If instead he and/or his partner struggle, it becomes difficult for Brind’Amour hide holes against playoff caliber hockey teams.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Do you agree/disagree with any of my three keys for the Canes’ playoff success?
2) If you had to pick three and only three Canes players who are most critical to the team’s playoff success, who would they be and why?
Go Canes!
1) Matt. I disagree, but not with the players you chose. I think you are wrong in the statement that Aho was outplayed in both the Washington and Boston series. A lot of people seem to think this, but it is subjective at best. In the Capitals series Aho was +1. While +/- is often belated as a junk statistic, in a series it clearly shows if a player’s line was winning at even strength. Sure Aho only 5 points, but overall he left the ice with the Canes ahead. You likely remember Ovechkin looking unstoppable at times, but that was mostly him outplaying Hamilton/Slavin more than the forwards. Back to +/-, Ovi was -4 in games 6 and 7 when Aho’s line needed to step up.
Against Boston the series was lost in game 1 due to giving up 2 power play goals in quick succession—in fact the penalty kill was a problem the entire series. Aho was -1, so he didn’t outplay the other lines, but it wasn’t Bergeron schooling him either.
2) Aho—I think we see SAT against Panarin’s line. The +/- for those lines will go a long way to determining the outcome.
Staal—I expect to see him against Zibanejad. If Staal can mostly shut down that line, the Canes have an advantage with lines 3 & 4.
Reimer—he was the Canes best goalie this season.
Appreciate your difference of opinion. The different viewpoints are the best part of the site and discussion.
On Aho, it is not so much that he fell short in specific match ups. He just did not drive the offense or the success. I think what would be interesting (have that as a to-do if I find time tonight) would be checking goals for and goals against for Aho on special teams. Since he is a regular on both power play and penalty kill, average would be an equal number of each. In the Caps series, Aho had 0 power play points, and in the Bruins series where special teams were the difference, he had 1 goal and no assists. In total Aho had 2 goals and no assists in 15 games on the power play.
Matt. Solid points that make your case better.
The point that gets missed is that Aho only took one penalty in the Washington series. He had 2 PIM in 15 games (Teravainen had 2 in 15 games and Svech had 4 in 9 games withstanding the Ovi fight). So while Aho may not have done a great job of shutting down the Caps and Bruins man-advantage, the top line was not responsible for them being short-handed. I have always thought that penalty differential is a greatly under appreciated stat. If you are getting bested by the line you are facing, you will either give up goals or take penalties.
Did some manual digging on Aho on special teams for 2019 playoffs. My hunch was right that we was not productive on the power play but not right on the penalty kill.
In the playoffs, Aho had power play ice time of 52:21 and was on the ice for only 2 goals for (he scored both of them). 2.30 goals for per 60 on the power play obviously does not cut it.
But on the flip side, he was not very much in the middle of Canes’ intermittent penalty kill woes. Aho played 28:53 shorthanded and was on the ice for 4 goals against and 1 shorthanded tally for. Haven’t found any kind of average PPG goals per 60 to compare to. (Anyone else have a basic benchmark for this?)
Mrazek is at the top of this for sure. It will be interesting to see how quickly goalies can mentally be in these games.
I would agree with Vatanen, especially with Dougie now out. Vatanen has a lot to prove, coming off an injury and headed into free agency.
But I think we know what we’ll get from Aho, especially on a line with TT and Svech. I think Trocheck and his linemates are more critical to sustained postseason success.