In the wee hours of the morning late Sunday night dripping into Monday morning the elves at Canes and Coffee posted a mini-novel on the Hurricanes blue line situation and suggested that at some point adjustments would need to be made to clear the backlog both short-term and long-term.
You can find that article entitled, “Deeper dive into Hurricanes blue line situation both short-term and long-term” HERE if you missed it.
That article became especially timely when about 10 hours later news broke that talks were ongoing for a possible Justin Faulk trade to the Anaheim Ducks.
Something to keep an eye on: there have been ongoing conversations between CAR and ANA about a Justin Faulk trade, but there are still details to be worked out (1/2)…
— Elliotte Friedman (@FriedgeHNIC) September 9, 2019
Elliotte Friedman followed up by noting that Faulk’s no-trade clause could be an obstacle.
Faulk has a partial NTC — which lists the Ducks — and it is believed ANA wishes to pursue an extension. No one will comment on the likelihood of it occurring, but it has been intensely discussed
— Elliotte Friedman (@FriedgeHNIC) September 9, 2019
Maybe a bit late to the party, Luke DeCock chimed in for the local media suggesting a possible return in the trade.
Believe the Hurricanes have a deal in place with Anaheim for Faulk. Anaheim is not listed among his 15 preapproved teams, so it’s in Faulk’s hands now. Hurricanes have had a longstanding interest in Ondrej Kase, would be surprised if he isn’t involved.
— Luke DeCock (@LukeDeCock) September 9, 2019
Carolina Hurricanes blue line situation
Per my article from prior to all of the Twitter festivities, I think this makes sense at a basic level. Short-term, the Hurricanes need to eliminate a defenseman or two to avoid losing one for nothing on waivers. There is the possibility to resolve that with a much smaller deal trading from Gustav Forsling, Roland McKeown or Hadyn Fleury possibly just for futures (especially if it is McKeown or Forsling).
But longer-term, I do not see the Hurricanes keeping more than two of Justin Faulk, Dougie Hamilton and Trevor van Riemsdyk on the right side and it might only be one. Faulk and van Riemsdyk are due for new contracts and possibly sizable raises next summer, and Dougie Hamilton’s contract comes up the following summer. So it follows that the Hurricanes would at least consider calls on any of these three players.
And with Hamilton locked in for one more year and Faulk potentially slated for $7-8 million per year on a long-term deal this summer, the team ideally needs to decide sooner rather than later if Faulk is a $7-8M long-term cornerstone of the blue line or if instead they should at least consider collecting trade value instead.
Considering Justin Faulk
Not surprisingly based on my historical opinion of Faulk, I lean toward collecting a return. I was early on calling out his sub-par play a couple years back when he was still paired with Ron Hainsey. Giving credit where it is due, he rebounded and had a strong 2018-19 season which is why he has the value he does right now. But especially if his next contract clocks in at north of $7 million, I view his downside risk as significantly greater than his upside. That is not a good risk/reward trade off. I attribute a significant amount of Faulk’s struggles for a period of time to being just a hair slow especially in terms of quickness in small spaces. At 27 years old, the potential for that situation to rise again is not a risk I would take for a maximum dollar type contract.
But also as noted in my Monday Daily Cup of Joe, it is not imperative that the Hurricanes trade Faulk now or even necessarily before next summer. The Hurricanes are refreshingly now a team that is trying to win now. As such, if Faulk boosts the team’s prospects for the 2019-20 season but then departs via free agency next summer, that is not a horrible outcome, especially if “boosts” has to do with a shot at a big shiny, silver prize.
Possible return from Anaheim
As far as a possible return from Anaheim, Luke DeCock from the News & Observer named Ondrej Kase. At a basic level, Kase brings higher-end speed and skill and a high ceiling in terms of possible scoring production. His $2.6 million salary for two years is cap-friendly even if Kase just became a top 9 forward who scored at a decent depth level. If instead, he clicked with the Hurricanes and scored more like a top 6 forward, he becomes a significant bargain. But the issue with Kase is how disjointed his production has been. He has had numerous trips to injured reserve including two concussions. Sometimes the term ‘injury prone’ can be overused for players who suffered multiply random luck injuries, but I think with Kase it would be fair to consider him an injury risk.
Past Kase, Hurricanes fans would love Rakell who no way would be available. But might a player for player hockey trade include Jakob Silfverberg or Adam Henrique? I think more likely the trade will include a younger player and/or prospects.
Faulk’s say and the tough part of the business
The deciding factor will likely be Justin Faulk. Per Friedman’s report, it sounds like Anaheim was not only Faulk’s approved list which would mean that he would need to agree to be traded there. In addition, he would most certainly need to agree to an extension, as I do not expect that Anaheim will be interested in a short-term rental.
This the brutal part of the hockey business. Faulk spent seven years on losing Hurricanes teams. Then, he finally gets a taste of playoff hockey and seemingly the team is looking to push forward without him. Sure, he has a no-trade clause and can stay another year (maybe if team does not find another deal), but usually players agree to move on once the team decides to.
The possibility of an ulterior motive?
An unlikely but interesting wild card is the possibility that the team is exerting pressure to get a favorable next contract from Faulk. The market price for him could be $7-8 million per year, but the Hurricanes pecking order has Slavin at $5.3 million, Pesce at $4.1 million and now Gardiner at $4.1 million. Is it possible that this is a move to force Faulk to process leaving just when things are getting good in Raleigh and make him consider taking a sizable discount on his next deal to stay? I do not think that is completely out of the question with the team now in a position to exercise leverage with three long-timers signed on the blue line.
What say you Canes fans?
Your thoughts in general on the Justin Faulk speculation that dropped on Monday?
Go Canes!
An advanced stats based article on Ondrej Kase. https://www.anaheimcalling.com/2019/8/5/20750969/ondrej-kase-a-breakout-star-in-the-making-anaheim-ducks-nhl-hockey-athletic-ian-tulloch
I’d still rather get Nick Richie.
Nick Ritchie couldn’t keep up with Lucas Wallmark. He’s got size and he’s got toughness, but man he is SLOW. That has a hard time finding a slot on this Hurricanes team.
Thought it was strange how much specific information was flying around about the Faulk trade yesterday. Unusual for the Canes, especially when local guys (DeCock) are getting info. I suppose it is Waddell trying to put pressure on Faulk to waive his NTC.
I get it, but don’t begrudge Faulk the benefit he earned. A lot of fans here already don’t like him, so why should he care? I think these fans will miss Faulk when they watch his replacement.
There was a lot more buzz emanating from Anaheim than Raleigh yesterday. My guess is the smoke making machine was from the Orange County in CA, not here. My feelings on Faulk are mixed. Last season, playing under RBA, was good medicine for Justin. His previous 2 seasons under Bill Peters were lackluster at best. He has the ability but can at times lack the focus and intensity needed in the NHL. The reality is we have a logjam on defense, and spending that is technically above the cap. Someone has to go. Today Faulk, if for no other reasons than contract realities, is the likely dman to go. While his trade doesn’t worry me much on reduced depth, it does worry me a lot on reduced team toughness.
Maybe so about the smoke coming from Anaheim, but deCock getting a scoop suggested some local info to me.
Faulk had some lackluster play on some lackluster teams. He is still a very high end defenseman. If he wanted to stay here at a friendly number that would already be done. Looks like he wants to get his payday, and pick a new home. He’s earned it. Trading Faulk solves the defense logjam and the cap issues.
FWIW Luke deCock tweeted shortly after his original tweet that he got the info on the Anaheim/Faulk deal from Elliote Freidman. Luke’s contribution to the story seems to be reporting the Canes have had interest in Ondraj Kase for some time.
I tend to think that the simplest explanation is probably the most accurate: that Faulk has been available for a while now and that ANA has decided they want him and are willing to extend him. These talks with ANA have probably been ongoing all summer and now with the Gardiner signing we can trade him from a position of strength with our surplus of talent on defense.
If it’s all true – and there is reason to believe it is true – then getting Kase (or Ritchie) makes us that much better and turns us (at least) +1 in the off-season for Top-9 forwards (lost JW, Ferland; gained Kase, Haula, Dzyngel, plus maybe Necas), which was one of the off-season goals to improve our depth on offense. So on the surface, it’s a trade that makes sense.
Personally, I’d rather NOT trade him and go into the season with a very deep blue line like we did last season and take our chances with our offense as-is (where we also have very good depth and a few players that can “rise up” and over-produce their level of experience); I think we were 2nd in the league in scoring after Jan-1 last season so we can score. Losing Forsling or McKeown to waivers seems like a small price to pay for NOT making a trade.
I sound like a broken record: what a glorious time to be a Canes fan.
A more current discussion on Kase, including injury history. Cliff notes: He is young, 23. He is good. History of concussions are a concern. And he is Czech. https://thehockeywriters.com/kase-ducks-2019-20-x-factor/
Seeing all this play out publicly now, I’d be shocked if Faulk isn’t moved before the season starts. It does makes sense that it’s perhaps by design by one or both teams to get Faulk to approve a move.
I’m on the fence about this. This team looks really talented right now, and we’re not better without Faulk. I do worry about how our PK looks without him. Our top PK would be with Slavin and Pesce. Great. What’s the 2nd unit of blueliners on PK? Can’t be Gardiner, who has very little time there. It’s not Hamilton’s strength, but he’ll have to be back there with probably TVR when he’s healthy.
I’m sort of with dmilleravid, kind of hoping a trade doesn’t work out and we get Faulk in a final contract year playing lights out. I also think perhaps we should move TVR instead, get a modest return but still have a really strong blueline.
According to some report on Twitter (Sara Civian?) we did make a major offer to Faulk sometime after July 1, but it was turned down. So it wasn’t like we haven’t tried to extend him – we just didn’t hit the number that would make that happen. I have to think that one of his motivations for not extending now is having a banner contract year and another deep playoff run – makes him extremely valuable next July 1.
The story broke in stages yesterday – from trade talkes to teams were given permission to talk extension to “oh, it’s ANA”, to DeCock speculating that it would include Kase because we have been interested in him.
ANA will have to back up a a truck of cash to get him – I would be surprised that ANA would pay him that type of money to make him a franchise player. But ANA would probably pay the money that it would it take for Faulk if he wants the guaranteed payday.
Something Sara Civian did say on Twitter was Faulk really enjoyed this year – he enjoyed getting up and going to the rink each and every day, something he has never experienced with CAR. Why would he want to give that up? He will still get his payday in July even if he stays.
I see no reason to trade Faulk now. He wants to go to a winning team, either let him be part of the Canes being that winning team, (he stuck with the Canes through the bad times) or, if the Canes do not manage it, let him strengthen a likely cup contender at the trade deadline.
Again, it depends on the return, it needs to be good and immediate, not lottery picks and Pu.
There’s always a risk he will have a down year, but he has all the motivation to play lights out this year to secure a contract, here or elsewhere.
If he goes, our D scoring is badly impacted and our PK as well.
Sure, the hand off to the next generation of d men has to happen but I think it can wait until next year, Injuries will happen this season and we’ll get a better read on the capabilities of that generation during the season as call up players.
Justin probably realizes that his best option, right now, is to try and work out an extension with a team the Hurricanes are hoping to trade him to. If a trade can’t be worked out, Faulk almost assuredly loses PP time to Gardiner and that will impact his scoring. He could potentially end up on the 3rd pairing, again reducing his ice time (and impacting his stats in a contract year).
Personally, I’d be great if the return for Faulk was one of Anaheim’s high end forward prospects (Terry, Steel, Lundestrom, Comtois, or Jones) and something like a 2nd round pick (my preference is actually in 2021). I’m scared of Kase’s concussion history (he’s had 3 verified and reports of up to as many as 5).
I’d be happy to see what we’ve got in Necas with Gauthier and Geekie both waiting in the wings as right shots. Kuokkanen looked pretty good during the prospect tournament too.
While I would love to see Faulk play his contract out as well, how do the Canes solve their cap issue? Someone,two or more have to go. Optimally the Canes need a few million in case they need an addition due to injury later in the season.
Between Forsling, Gibbons, and Bishop we will be sending $2.1M to CLT at the start of the season. But you are right – we have limited cap flexibility.
Agree with rtj, we might be tight but we are not in a unmanageable cap situation.
dmilleravid. Thanks for your perspective. I love your attitude, because I share it. It most certainly is a glorious time to be a Canes fan.
Surgalt. Thanks yet again for the articles. Please keep ’em coming.
I suffer from mixed feelings about Justin Faulk. I agree with surgalt that he provides toughness to our rearguard. He is not an enforcer by any means. But he is big enough and strong enough to push and shove enemy forwards in front of the net and to win battles for the puck in the so-called dirty areas. Like surgalt, I would miss that about Justin. Our present crew doesn’t even come close to that (with the notable exception of Kyle Wood).
Faulk has skated with the Canes through good teams and bad. He has played with a hot scoring hand as well as a cold one. His defensive play has been both good and horrible.
Legendary Toronto coach Punch Imlach once became so frustrated with his star player Frank Mahavolich, he said to the press, “Hockey is a streetcar named desire. The problem with Frank is, sometimes he misses the train.”
That describes Justin Faulk in my book.
Once traded to Detroit and playing on a line with Gordy Howe and Alex delVecchio, Frank became an all star for years. Maybe Anaheim could be Justin’s Detroit.
My concerns on team toughness and “nuclear deterrence” are not reduced by Kyle Wood’s presence on the Checkers. He is so far down on our defensive depth chart he’d have to meet Tom Wilson in an alley to defend any of the Canes. Kase, a highly talented offensive sniper, would be one more player who needs the protection the Canes are largely unable to provide as currently assembled. Interestingly, my choice of players on the Ducks would be Nick Richie, who skated on a line with Kase last season. He is the same age and size as Wood, but could slot into the Canes line up immediately. Warning: This proposed Faulk/Richie deal is totally a figment of my imagination.
I’m really on the fence on this one. I like keeping Faulk for all of the positive reasons cited by others above for doing so. Faulk IMO has taken a lot of the heat for some of the mediocre teams and goalies the Canes have put on the ice in years before last year. He has earned the right to play with the Canes on a winning team now IMO.
The only reason I can see for trading him now is if management sees the Canes being placed in a similar position as we had with Skinner. It seems to me we can wait all the way up to the trade deadline this year before having to make any move involving him. Who knows, it is not beyond the realm of possibility for him to be one of our all around top three defensemen and we move someone else at the trade deadline.
My preferred answer based upon everything discussed is we keep Justin and do it because we appreciate the value he brings to the ice. The last thing I would want is for us to trade him right now for anything less than his value which IMO should be very high. It really won’t feel right not seeing Justin out there with a Canes uniform on because him and management can’t get together on a fair salary and term which is in the 5 to 6 million/year range. The 8 million mentioned is IMO reserved for Hedman type talent. No disrespect to Justin because IMO he is a very good defenseman, but he is not a Hedman, Josi, or Burns.
I’m with surgalt on this. If we trade Faulk to ANA then we need to at least get Ritchie back in return. I’d like Faulk to remain but I fear that he and his agent have set a price that the Canes won’t pay. I keep thinking about the playoffs against Washington; Hamilton was not effective neutralizing Ovechkin – Faulk seemed to match up best. The road to the Cup likely goes through Washington and I fear that we will get pushed around unless we get tougher.
The Caps will try to intimidate the Canes. It is their best chance to win and plus they get revenge for the OT loss in Game 7 in DC.
Caps-Canes can be a great rivalry-hope they meet up in round 2.
SILFVERBERG or HENRIQUE are the Ducks I would want. Maybe good ole Patrick Eaves.
Getzlaf …………
I left them off my wish list simply due to the fact the Canes need to dump a little salary w/ whatever move they make.
Amen!
I am not on the fence. I do not want to trade Faulk. Having 5 top 4 D makes us a real threat. We will probably loose some of the young D due to waivers but it is price I would be willing to accept. I can see attempting to trade some of the young D prior to the beginning of the season. We also have 3 more coming behind the 3 fringe guys we have right now.
I am hoping this is an attempt to get Faulk to accept a cheaper long term deal. He is a very good D, those do not grow on trees. We better get serious value if we do trade him. I respect his right to get high dollars and also exercise his clause. He earned it. Money is nice but kind of hard to leave when it is getting fun and going to a place with not great upside. Faulk has to decided what is important to him. I will hold out hope we extend him at a reasonable rate. We do not have a lot of toughness right now. Faulk also provide that. We are under no real pressure to trade him.
I might add, darn near everybody is opened to be traded. GMs are doing that 24 hours a day. The media gets hold of some talks and it get blown up into reality, which not even be that close. It will be interesting to see how things work out. Our brain trust has done well.
but its fun to speculate.
Yup. ????
More on the potential trade. https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2019/09/latest-on-justin-faulk-trade-talks.html#comments
So I’ve mentioned my feelings on the deal a couple of times, but to recap:
I like Faulk the player and think today, all things being equal, we’re a better team with Faulk than without. However, all things aren’t equal. We have no idea if the progression of Fleury, Bean, Forsling, McKeown, or even Lintuniemi or the addition of Priskie can be net positive’s to our defensive corps.
This front office pays attention to value, analytics, speed, and team fit. It is hard to argue that a top 4 of Slavin, Hamilton, Gardiner, and Pesce isn’t one of the better groups in the league. While that won’t be the toughest bunch, from a skill perspective there are very few equals to that group out there. The bottom pairing, likely to get 14-15 minutes a night would be anchored by a very good #5 in Trevor Van Riemsdyk. That leaves a slot open for one of the “youngsters”.
While people fixate on the Tom Wilson’s in the Metro, we flat out outworked, out-skated, and out-conditioned the Caps in the playoffs last year. That’s our jam. We are a hard working, fast, tough to play against team. If we return to one that stays out of the penalty box, we’ll be a very tough out for anybody. That’s what our front office and coaching staff are counting on….at team that out chances, out hustles, and ultimately, out-skills the competition. That’s how this team is built and how this team will win.
Unfortunately, the “feel good” of Justin Faulk staying a Cane until the trade deadline just isn’t going to happen. There’s no way the team would move him, should he still be on the roster, and disrupt any sort of potential post-season run. So if he’s on the roster in January of 2020, we’re almost certainly losing him to free agency next July. That’s flat out poor asset management and his presence on the team isn’t going to significantly improve our chances enough to make up for that loss.
For what it’s worth (and it isn’t much) I disagree with that last sentence, or at least if that sentence included “at any price”.
I think shedding Justin Faulk’s contract for a meager return right now is bad asset management.
This team is built to win, having 5 top 4 D men is the strength the team has right now. We don’t have a superstar forward or bulletproof goaltending. Getting picks for Faulk’s contract isn’t going to help us get into the playoffs this year.
I agree that we have a glot of younger D men and they need to get their audition and eventually take over, but for development and cost reasons, but I think if Faulk can get this team into the playoffs and help the team make a run that keeping him around is the right decision, I’d rather have Faulk score and be good for the Canes and lose him for nothing than collecting a second round pick and an AHL player for him, we have too many of those.
If the team isn’t good enough for the playoffs we can probably get a high return for him at the deadline. If the team is good enough to make the playoffs and make a run, he got the team to that point and he should be part of that run. Then he can decide where to go or even to stick around at a discount.
That being said, I am no expert and I do not claim my thoughts and limited insights to be worth much *grin*.
Do you think that Justin Faulk would be happy if he was relegated to the 3rd line and got 15 to 16 minutes a night? Do you think he would be happy with less or even no PP time? Do you think he’ll be especially bitter about these sorts of things because it is a contract year and he might think there are ulterior motives for such moves? That’s the problem we face with 5 Top 4 defensemen when we only have 4 of those slots.
Do you think a trade for a blue chip prospect, young player with potential and a 2nd round pick would be a bad return? Especially for a guy known for his offensive prowess whose offense has dried up a bit? Or for a guy who has been a defensive black hole for 2 years and has only put 1 recent “good” defensive season on the boards? Give me Troy Terry or Maxime Comtois and a 2nd round pick from Anaheim and I’m fine. Give me Jack Roslovic and a 2nd round pick from Winnipeg and I’m fine. Those are outstanding prospects/young players and a 2nd round pick is pretty valuable.
I’m not a Justin Faulk hater by any stretch and I certainly hope we can get a king’s ransom for him. But if we can get a fair return, then we take it and run, not because it opens up slots for the younger guys (although that’s an added benefit). We do it because it continues to rebalance our salary structure, allowing us to re-sign the guys we want and to make moves in the future. Regardless, we’ll still have guys, tweeners like Forsling, McKeown, Bishop and such that we’re going to have to address over the course of the next 18 months. Replacing guys with high end guys is how we’ll stay competitive long term.
Forgot one other point….you don’t trade Justin Faulk in the middle of a playoff run. The negative impact on the team would be significant. So you either get this deal done sooner rather than later, or you end up biting the bad asset management bullet….and I just don’t like that solution, but that’s my opinion and we all have those and that other noted body part.
I can’t say what would make Faulk happier, being a top 4/top 6 guy on a teem with potential for playoff glory or a top 2 defenseman on a team in full rebuild mode.
The return you suggest would actually made me satisfied with a deal, but the etquivalent of Cliff Pu _+ a 6th rounder would not.
If Faulk got the Canes into the playoffs he wouldn’t be traded, he would be a self rental who could make a decision re his future in the summer.
If the Canes with Faulk onboard failed to be close to the playoff cutline by the trade deadline he would be eager to be traded to a team with cup winning potential, and teams would likely be highly interested in his services and be willng to provide something in return.
As someone said on another thread, we have a pretty amazing D core but it feels the skills are not well distributed there, PK and toughness is an important element In that and it feels like the rest of the D core is only average on those attributes between them, either to their special skills or lack of experience.
Man, it’s fun to be a Canes fan this year!