Yesterday was a reminder of how difficult it has been to be a Carolina Hurricanes fan at times during the past eight-ish years. No doubt there have been good times mixed in if you are open-minded enough to appreciate them. But largely, the experience of being a Hurricanes fan has had more than its share of downs to go with the ups recently especially as measured by the standings and NHL playoff goodness. Because of that, I think that based on recent history the Carolina Hurricanes fan base is (probably justifiably) a little sensitive and sometimes bordering on paranoid anytime things take even the slightest turn for the worse.
To be clear, I am not casting stones but rather am personally getting in the boat with other fans who get worked up at this point with every downturn.
With a day to digest Tuesday’s loss, today’s Daily Cup of Joe aims to take an objective and even-handed look at the Carolina Hurricanes 2017-18 season thus far and the outlook for it going forward.
I also recommend checking out the volume of insightful reader comments on yesterday’s game in the recap. Those comments offer a wide set of views that of course span the map of positive to negative.
What to make of Tuesday’s loss specifically
I think a good starting point is to consider Tuesday’s loss by itself. I did finish my notes by recognizing that the match up was a tough one, arguably the toughest in the league right now, but I leaned negative in my recap and notes.
Looking at Tuesday by itself, the Tampa Bay thing is significant. The Lightning are now 8-1-1 and were coming fresh off a 7-1 thumping of the defending champion Penguins. The Hurricanes 2-1 loss not counting two empty-netters and last second garbage goal is not a horrible outcome, and even if the Hurricanes had been shellacked like Penguins, it would easily have been a game that one could write off.
Shorter version: Tuesday by itself is a small negative but is nothing to panic about.
Assessment of production through seven games
The Hurricanes’ 3-3-1 mark is not good, but it is not horrible either. It is short of playoff pace but only by about one point. Maybe most significantly, the Hurricanes have successfully lurched out of the starting gate without anything going horribly wrong. So while it is fair to say that a 3-3-1 start is disappointing, the level of damage done is tiny. This might sound strange, but if given the chance to take the Hurricanes 3-3-1 record or replay the games, I would begrudgingly take the 3-3-1 start and move forward. To be clear, 3-3-1 is not great, but I would accept it and the fact that it means the team did not fall coming out of the starting gate rather than risking acceptable potentially for a couple more points.
But what about the current level of play? Is that a cause for concern?
The lack of an identity and winning formula thus far
In a word, yes. The Hurricanes have yet to settle on any kind of repeatable formula that seems likely to generate consistent winning. Rather, the team rode a handful of offensive outbursts to a couple wins (Minnesota, Edmonton), played a single solid game (Calgary) and has struggled otherwise.
Through seven games, it is hard to picture what the good version of the Hurricanes looks like. The lack of an identity and/or winning formula is a cause for concern. If I had to describe the Hurricanes’ success through seven games, I think it could best be characterized as when things click offensively, the team has some scoring ability. Ironically, two of the three wins (the opener against Minnesota and the 5-3 win in Edmonton) featured exactly that despite the fact that I did not think the team played particularly well on either night. Over the course of a long 82-game season, I think the key to consistency is finding an identity and formula that can be replicated with reasonable consistency. That is what makes it possible to string together an extended run of above .500 hockey versus the one step forward, one step back that comes with winning at random.
More specific flaws
In addition, a few flaws have crept up early in the season and will need to be addressed for the team to improve upon its 2016-17 season.
Even strength offense: Most notable is the team’s inability to consistently generate offense and more pointedly goals at even strength. Through seven games, the Hurricanes have only 12 even strength goals Nine of those goals come from the forwards which means that the team is averaging about 1.2 goals per game at even strength from its forwards. In addition, Jeff Skinner’s four is almost half of the total which means the other 11 forwards in the lineup have combined for a measly five even strength goals in seven games. That is simply not enough. I am mostly taking a day off from trying to get Sebastian Aho into a position to use his natural skill set as a playmaker with the puck on his stick, so I will end there.
The power play: The visual and the math on the power play are interesting. The power play currently ranks 17th out of 31 teams which is not great but is fairly close to average. But the visual is worse. The second unit especially is struggling with zone entries and any generating any kind of cohesive puck movement right now. In a few key few instances when a power play goal could have tilted the scales, it has come up empty.
The blue line past the top pairing: As much Canes fans want to just project into the future and declare our blue line to be among the best in the league and an every game strength, it just is not yet. Jaccob Slavin and Brett Pesce continue to do their thing, but just like in 2016-17, the play below them is sporadic at best. I continue to like Haydn Fleury, but understandably, he is still learning and it shows sometimes. Maybe not surprisingly, Klas Dahlbeck struggled on the right side just as he did in 2016-17. And Trevor van Riemsdyk is benefiting from Dahlbeck being the plan B, but in addition to being capable moving the puck, he has found himself in the middle of a few too many mistakes for goals against. The buck ultimately stops or goes with Noah Hanifin and Justin Faulk who must be defensively capable for the top 4 to be balanced. Both have been intermittently good enough but in my mind are trying to stretch upward to be stable on an every game basis defensively.
When I net it out, maybe not surprisingly, the forward group that looks pretty similar to the 2016-17 group that finished 20th overall in goal scoring and did not add a pure catalyst this summer is struggling to produce goals again. As of now, the blue line of the future is still about two-thirds in the future. And while I would not pin the Hurricanes troubles on Scott Darling, he has been adequate but not better overall.
Is there hope that things sort themselves out?
I think there is. When the team did not land a catalyst or playmaker this summer, I figured the offense for being somewhere between the same and a modest step up with intermittent struggles from a lineup full of good complementary depth scorers but lacking ignition switches. That said, I think so far the team has undershot even that.
The key is finding some kind of a hot hand or two and identifying some combinations with chemistry. Out of the entire set of forwards, the only group that seems to be clicking in terms of finding chemistry is the fourth line, and unfortunately it is not built to score. I like Lindholm and Staal as two-thirds of a top-end checking line, but in all honesty, I am not sure there is a single set of two players in the top 9 that I would say must be left together.
Part of it is always on the players who step onto the ice, but I think part of it is also on Bill Peters and his coaching staff to find a spark and/or combinations that work. Despite the deficiency or pure top 6 scorers, the team is underperforming its natural ability right now.
The blue line is trickier. The team is currently hitched to Noah Hanifin and Justin Faulk being capable top 4 defensemen defensively. Except for a good stretch of hockey to finish out the 2016-17 season, I do not think either player has been that for more than a game here or there over the past few years.
The biggest thing is finding more goals. Lack of scoring puts everything else under the microscope and leaves nothing for margin for error for the defense or goalies. With the current group, I do think there is more scoring possible relative to what we have seen thus far.
How critical are the three games this weekend?
The past couple seasons present a strong case for how hard it is to dig out of even modest holes dug early in the season. Even with a decent and extended push later, figuring things out in December is not good enough if a hole has already been dug.
So while I do not think it is critical that the Hurricanes make some kind of statement and run the table in the next three games. The path of falling just a bit farther behind game by game is a slippery slope. That does put some urgency in the next three games. As disappointing as 1-1-1 would be, I think that version of treading water until the team learns to swim could be a minimum level of acceptable. It is not a playoff pace, but it keeps the team from dipping below .500. I would be thrilled if the Hurricanes could pull out 2 wins in three tries right now against pretty good competition.
What say you Caniacs?
Is it time for some calm and patience?
Or is the team teetering on the edge of real trouble?
And are you expecting a rebound, treading water or continued struggles during the quick three-game stretch that starts on Thursday?
Go Canes!
The lack of scoring by anyone not named Jeff Skinner is concerning. I wouldn’t panic yet, but if I was GMRF I’d be looking to see what I could do(Shipachyov or Galcheyuk).
My frustration isn’t that we are teetering on disaster but we continue to see the same problems. We know the issues but we do little to fix them. We need physicality, nothing coming. We need a front line forward, we are unwilling to take the risk / more likely unwilling to spend the money. We go and get the easy fixes: 4th liners, unproven backups, 3rd pairing guys, and an occasional 2nd line winger. The problems are staring us in the face and instead of solving them we plant hopes into inconsistent/rarely productive young guys to become our white knights. Its frustrating to see the same solutions for the same problems and yet see similar results on the ice year after year.
Yet we all are hoping Rask becomes a fringe #1 C and Lindholm can become a scoring threat. That is why we didn’t get a big center, because we have 4 #2 centers already. Yet ill be here watching every game, hoping our offense finds itself.
Excellently put!
I actually started watching hockey because of my wife. My first game to watch, game 7 against the Oilers in 2006. I figured things would only go downhill from there (hockeywise that is).
The 2009 NJ and Bos series are still my favorite. The ability of the team to somehow beat the odds, never give up, and find the clutch performers in every game was astounding.
But since then this aspect has been sorely missing, and the team seems to be getting comfortable with mediocre results, while the crowd is slowly evaporating from the P&C Arena stands.
We are asking too much of our young kids early on, and fail to add the talent we need.
JR was too star struck and believed one or two guys would win the game (hence his big contracts for Staal and Ward, and the semin debacle. GMR is going too far the other direction, believing that a collection of bargain guys will find a higher gear and emerge victorious. It has happened, but that is like relying on winning the lottery, it is the exception.
We need a balance.
I would be satisfied with a 1 1 1 record for the week, but a 0 2 1 or 0 3 0 record will put the Canes right back in the 7 years of the insurmountable early season curse.
Go Canes!
On the same note as Breezy and GoCanes0506…I too am looking for a balance between value shopping and making moves to address specific needs.
I have a half-written article to the same effect. My comment while at the game on Tuesday was that I like Francis’ rational, methodical style, but that it needed just a little of Steve Yzerman wheeling and dealing that addresses specific needs even if what we need is not on sale.
I’ve been saying since before the pre-season that the first 10 games were going to be very tough, mostly against playoff teams and with the western roadtrip. In years past, the season was over in late Oct/early Nov before it really began. Also in year’s past, and even when we’ve started slowly, we’ve found a higher gear by December and really turned a lost season into a “maybe we have an outside chance” season.
This season is already a different story. We are not in an insurmountable hole; on the contrary, if we manage to win all three remaining games this week we’ll be leading the division. As uncomfortable a feeling we all have that the season may slip away after these next three games, I’d rather be where we are now than where any of EDM, ANA, MTL, NYR, SJO, or MIN are; those teams are much closer to disaster (relative to expectations).
Our play is certainly not in midseason form, and we clearly have not been consistent enough to form an identity for winning hockey, but it’s still very early in the season. Of our losses, all have essentially been very tight 1-goal games that we could have just as easily won with a break here or there – even after falling behind big in the Dallas game. And if any of those games had swung the other way, we’d be 4-2-1 and feeling very differently about the team, even with our lack of scoring.
It’s not too early to start tinkering with lines, maybe even to promote Wallmark/Zykov or someone to try and spark some offense (and to sit some poor performers), but it’s way too early to panic (even though I’m as close to panicking as anyone). I am quite sure and confident that GMRF is now as always exploring all avenues to make the team better, and will do a deal when it is fair both for the short-term and long-term interests of the team.
In the meantime, BP has the hard work of coaching this team, like he’s had over the last three years, and he’s always found a way to coax a lengthy stretch of great hockey out of it. This year will be no exception. It just hasn’t happened yet.
Three points this week, while low, gives us 10 in the first 10 games, which is just fine and right on my plan given our schedule.
Oh, and 44 comments on the Game Summary yesterday. Wow, that has to be a record. And that was without me (I was out-of-pocket all day). It’s the debate and diversity of opinion here that makes this site such a great read every day. Kudos, Matt.
I think dmilleravid captured a lot of my thoughts. To which I will add something I have said before. It is not just not scoring – it’s also about quality scoring chances. In the previous 2 one-goal games I did not see a lot of good scoring chances – I did against the Bolts, at least in the first and the third. During the close-checking second, not so much. But we were hitting the net, gathering rebounds with net-front presence and second and third chances in close. Interestingly this may be a question of game styles – CBJ and the 2nd period of TB were close-checking; WPG was really a grinding game. Offensively we have issues with those types of games based on the short sample size. If we can get a little space we can use our speed – things open up.
There are definitely things that need to be cleaned up and improved – the PP, neutral zone play, and passing.
But if we are generating good scoring chances – as opposed to just flinging the puck on goal a high number of times – we will start scoring.
I think it’s still time for calm and patience. I don’t believe the team is teetering on disaster if your expectations were managed correctly.
On that note, I think the Canes being the trendy pick by national analysts to sneak into the final playoff spot inflated expectations among the fan base(myself included).
Before the pre season I saw the team as having a 50% chance at making the post season and that’s about where they are sitting now.
I won’t be calling for RF and BP’ s heads until next season but I’m an out of towner so it’s easier to stomach a bad season than it probably is for someone paying to go see the games.
On that note, I’m starting to get a little sick of Rask, he looks slow, baubles pucks and his passing looks bad. He also seems to take extra seconds to figure put where he should be. Then he gets there late due to lack of foot speed.
I’m also growing wary of Rod Brindamour. Perhaps he would be better suited as a trainer or somewhere else on the staff. I’m not seeing anything on our power play or among our forwards in general that indicates he’s well suited for his current position.
Go Canes though!
Team needs a shake up, sit Rask and Faulk. Move Staal and Lindy and TT to 3rd line. Wake there asses up! Let kids play can’t be worse then our sleep walking vets.
Lines I’d like to see Peters try:
1) Remember when Nordy/Staal/Nesty was one of the best lines in the NHL, but failed after Nesty’s return from a broken back? Well, Nordy and Staal are still here. What if we had a player who is as good as Nestrasil was before his injury? Couldn’t Justin Williams match or exceed Nesty? Sounds silly to ask it. Let’s give those three guys a try, Bill.
2) Send Kuokkanen to Charlotte and let him get in the flow. He won’t develop in the NHL press box. Recall Wallmark to center Skinner and Lindholm.
3) Not giving up on Rask yet, but demoting him to third line between TT and Aho. All three are stuck in the mud and can climb out together, or not. Maybe they will, against 3rd line competition.
4) Kruger’s line, flanked by McGinn and Ryan, Jooris standing by to replace whoever doesn’t produce. Zykov standing by as next call-up if anyone else needs to sit.
If Bill can’t find some chemistry between the players he has, then let’s look at offensive coaching.
I wouldn’t trade away any defensemen. They’re good, but not as deep as some might think.
I do not view it as time to panic yet, but if we blow these next three games then it is time for changes and I will believe the team is teetering on the edge of real trouble. We simply cannot dig holes again at the beginning of the season. The scoring is very weak outside of Skinner. I agree with the things dmiller said.
I raised the same question yesterday ericiversen21 said. Our power play stinks and I question who is coaching it. Its been several years now. I view it as even worse then the 5 on 5 goals. If we had even a few PP goals our record would be much different. 17th in the league is not a good stat. Just means other have even more problems then we do, but if you want to make the playoff, this will destroy our chances.
Totally DISAGREE WITH THE UNFOUNDED OPTIMISM…how does THIS TEAM…OUTSCORE ANYONE?
I’m on the side of calm and patience with managed expectations. From what I saw against Tampa Bay, there have probably been a lot of “shoot more” talks going on at practice. McGinn seemed to blast a shot every time he touched a puck in the offensive zone. I think the balance between shooting on goal shots and picking up the trash after, shooting wildly to have pucks bounce out of play or to the neutral zone and barely shooting the puck at all still needs to be found.
As much as I want Carolina to dominate and get recognition, I have yet to see the Carolina Hurricanes that existed at the end of last season. If we could find those guys again, I’d be happy even if we just tread water finding them.
So far I’ve seen a lot of pucks bounce of sticks and too many bad passes and miscommunication/misplays on good passes. Would also like to see a little less dump and chase and more power plays like the first one against Tampa Bay.
I wish I had some insight on what goes on behind the scenes.
Scoring improves tonight. Five out of first seven were against goalies currently in top half of league stats. The two that weren’t the Canes scored nine goals.
I think the team will get four tonight and three or four tomorrow. Against ANA and Gibson a 2-1 score is likely.
If the team plays like they did against TB—giving up only two, tonight is a win.
1) Calm and patient. Per the post-game thread, I liked our game against the Bolts. We played (mostly) solid team defense, were (mostly) good in transition, ran good cycles in the o-zone, and generated good scoring chances. The puck didn’t go in enough, but slapping a rubber disk with a bent stick at somewhere between 40 and 100 miles per hour creates a bit of imprecision on target. If we repeat that formula, some of those pucks go in and we can beat any team in the league, often enough to make the playoffs.
2) Judging from other comments, there may be trouble/teetering with the fan base unless we get some more wins soon. However, the team is not teetering on the edge of real trouble. We can lose the next 3 games and still not be teetering… which leads to #3.
3) The most important 3 games this week imho are TBL, TOR, and STL. All three have 7 or more wins and are playing the best hockey in the league right now. If we exit these three games playing a style that gives us a good chance against the best, that same style will carry us to the playoffs, even if we go 0-3 in those three. I would be disappointed in a loss to the Ducks at home… so
To directly answer the question asked, I would be happy with 1-2 or better in the next 3, as long as we spend the time in these games developing our identity and a repeatable style that will carry us to the playoffs. We achieved that objective against a very good TBL team on Tuesday, and I look for that to continue over the next 3.