On Sunday, the protected lists were officially announced for the Seattle Kraken expansion draft which will take place on Wednesday, July 21.
The Hurricanes list looked mostly as expected with one minor surprise choosing to protect both Warren Foegele and Jesper Fast and in the process leave Nino Niederreiter unprotected. On defense, the Hurricanes chose to protect Brady Skjei and leave Jake Bean unprotected as I wrote about in Friday’s first article about the expansion draft. And in goal, the Hurricanes protected Alex Nedeljkovic as expected.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe considers the team’s choices and ponders the likely outcome.
Why not protect Nino Niederreiter?
The one minor surprise makes sense in my book. Yes, Niederreiter slots higher than Warren Foegele and Jesper Fast and was more productive on the score sheet in 2020-21, with the Hurricanes now a cap team, it is not about salary. It is about salary related to role. In that regard, the question is whether Niederreiter is worth $5.25 million or if that money could be better redeployed. On the one hand, his 20 goals in 56 games makes for a solid finisher with a 29-goal pace over 82 games. On the other hand, Niederreiter is a bit one-dimensional and has been inconsistent. Also behind the headline numbers but significant is considering where the Hurricanes are in their development as a team. With three straight playoff berths and a finish near the top of the standings in 2020-21, the team has reached a level of success and now faces the challenge of charting a course to a next level in the playoffs. In terms of skill set, Niederreiter’s skill set as a big body who does his work near the net would figure to be a great fit for playoff success. But in three seasons with the Hurricanes, Niederreiter has been ‘meh’ in the playoffs notching only three goals in 29 games for a meager eight-goal and 20-point pace over 82 games. You will never hear about it in the formal coverage because the team will not talk about it openly, but one can bet that behind closed doors the team’s brain trust has had conversations and debates about which players are part of the equation to build a team that can not just succeed in the regular season but more importantly beat top teams in the playoffs to take next steps toward the ultimate goal. That is not to say that Niederreiter cannot be part of the equation, but one can bet that if he was tearing it up as a scoring power forward in the playoffs the last three years that he would not have been exposed. In addition, Niederreiter is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent next summer. As someone who is not part of the core and with Martin Necas next to become a free agent next summer, Niederreiter might have to be let go as part of next summer’s salary cap maneuvering anyway.
Warren Foegele who is a restricted free agent and Jesper Fast both slot lower and produce less than Niederreiter, but assuming Foegele gets only a modest raise, both will have salaries that fit into the bottom half of the forward lines.
This is not to say that the Hurricanes necessarily want to part ways with Niederreiter. More so, it is that in a game where the team cannot keep everyone, losing Niederreiter and gaining $5.25 million in salary cap space is a lesser evil than the alternatives at forward.
Why not protect Jake Bean?
I wrote about this in some detail on Friday, so I will not rehash all of it. The short version is that with Dougie Hamilton’s future questionable, the Hurricanes are currently already down a top 4 defensemen. Exposing Skjei could put the team in a difficult situation needing to add not one but two top 4 defensemen during the off-season which is a tough spot to be in.
As with Niederreiter, by no means do the Hurricanes want to lose Jake Bean, but that possibility is the lesser of two evils.
How does it end?
I said on Friday that I thought whichever defenseman between Skjei and Bean was exposed would be selected. I stand by that assessment and expect that Jake Bean will be headed to Seattle.
The week ahead
The days leading up to Wednesday’s expansion draft will be filled with chatter but no activity as each team’s roster is locked until after the expansion draft.
But even with the quiet, two things of interest jump out for the Hurricanes.
First, are there any players that the Seattle Kraken now have access to that could be of interest to the Hurricanes via trade? With the 30 selections to fill a 20-23-man roster plus depth, the potential is there for Seattle to select and trade a player or two.
Second and maybe more significantly, once the smoke clears on the expansion draft, the window opens for the Hurricanes to re-sign Dougie Hamilton. I said awhile back that it made no sense for the Hurricanes to re-sign Hamilton prior the expansion draft and then have to protect him. The rumblings in the press seem to suggest that Hamilton will hit the open market next week, but then when have the broader NHL media really had a good feel for what the Canes were up to? If instead, the two sides are likely to come to terms, that possibility comes into play after the expansion draft.
What say you Canes fans?
1) What are your thoughts on the decision to protect Foegele and Fast instead of Niederreiter and Skjei instead of Bean?
2) Do you think there is a chance that the Kraken who will need to take some bigger contracts to reach the $50-ish million minimum select Niederreiter or are the Hurricanes destined to lose Jake Bean?
3) Is there a chance that the Canes and Dougie Hamilton make all of the rumblings over the past month or so look silly by inking a deal shortly after the expansion draft?
4) For those, tracking the expansion draft more broadly than the Canes which 2-5 players available are most intriguing to you?
Go Canes!
I think it’s logical to expose Neiderriter. At his salary the Canes could find a replacement in FA and maybe more. Fast is a solid bottom 6 guy at a fair price. Bean still hasn’t proven he’s a NHL defenseman. Maybe he will do so soon, or maybe not. If the Canes were to lose Skjei and Hamilton they would be in a position of having all of two legitimate NHL defensemen on their roster. That’s scary.
I think the Kraken take Bean. Unless Francis has his eyes on a different offensive defenseman in FA he’s the logical choice. If Francis plans to sign a Hamilton or Barrie, maybe he doesn’t want another defensively suspect player and takes Neiderriter. Plenty of character to go with size and production. I would say 75% Bean, 25% Neiderriter.
If the Canes sign Hamilton it will take a while. If no team to Hamilton’s liking offers big money I think the Canes are back in the game.
Well said.
I think the Canes may pre empt the Hamilton discussion soon by trading for someone like Rasmus Ristolainen from Buf (I think he’s got 3 years left at 5.3 mill), and then sign someone like Sutor or another defensive minded UFA to help fill out the bottom pairing with Gardner or an upcoming D man.
I would see a D with 5 solid guys and Gardner + giving guys like Joey Keen a chance to prove themselves would make sense.
Well, that’s all for trade speculation rumors but I just don’t see our management giving in to salary demands from a pending UFA, they tend not to do that.
I predict Seattle will take Nino (decent value, they need to get off to an impressive start, they can pair him with some pretty powerful forward veterans to get the team going).
Thta will work for the Canes to do some rearranging.
Well, let me addone more detail to my conspiracy theorizing re Rasmus.
He’s not in favor with the Sabres right now and, well, he poses a bit of a risk.
So if perhaps the Canes could trade Gardner with either 1 mill retained or add a lower round draft pick in exchange for RR that might be the way to go.
RR still has potential, a lot of it seems to be culture (and, quite frankly, anyone on the Sabres roster is suspect at this point due to the overall awful results of the squad).
So if DW can pull off anothehr Darling for Reimer trade scenario this would be one that I would be satisfied with.
Yes, this would invest 20 mill in the top 4 D but we’d be able to shed a bad contract in return for one with at least more upside, then we could fill out the third pairing with cheaper options.
Over on WRAL there is a video talking about how it would be a PR disaster for the Canes to let Ned walk after the season he’s had last year, and hints the team is trying to sign him to a bridge 3 or 3.5 mill contract. I think if they could get him to sign a 2 x 3.5 mill it would be a pretty decent outcome.
Your analogy of Darling/Reimer for a potential Gardiner/Ristolainen deal is a good one.
I would not go out of my way to add Ristolainen and do not really care for his $5.3M cap hit. His basic stats, more advanced stats and also eye test suggest he is a bit of a bust as a high draft pedigree player who just really never turned out to be that good.
BUT…The Sabres have been a mess, light on good players and heavy on forwards who do not do enough defensively. So…Is there a chance that a change of scenery and being the lesser half of a D pairing with strong help is just what he needs? I think so. As I said above, I would not go out of my way to add him with his salary terms…would probably even pass on waivers.
But if I could trade Gardiner for Ristolainen straight up, I would do it in a heartbeat. Worst case is that you get out of 2 years of bad contract while adding only 1. The potential upside is that a change of scenery and a better D partner helps Ristolainen find what he was drafted to be.
Have partially-written blog on this exact theme looking for players whose level of play is possibly dragged down by their circumstances and could be interesting additions for Canes.
I realize Ristolainen hasn’t lived up to expectations, but why would Buffalo just give him away?
Gardiner is not good. Whether it’s because of injuries or not it doesn’t matter. According to Rod Brind’Amour he isn’t good enough to play in front of a guy he only gave 4-6 minutes a night late in the playoffs (Bean,) or some guy who had never played a game for the Canes (Lajoie). Ristolainen still has value. Trading Gardiner is more like the trade the Islanders made with Andrew Ladd. Gardiner plus picks for nothing.
One of the things I’ve been thinking a lot about is why teams exposed some of their better players even though they come at high AAV or lengthy term: Carey Price, Voracek, Tarasenko, etc. It almost seems like teams are daring Seattle to take some of these expensive players.
It’s very risky to me and here’s why: these players are now available through a trade with Seattle and that dramatically expands the market for each player. It’s not about whether Seattle wants that player, it’s about whether any team in the league does at a reasonable trade price. The cost to Seattle is low. The return could be very high.
So I almost wonder whether the Canes shouldn’t try and do a deal with Seattle to obtain one of these exposed players. For instance, I would love to have Eberle at 3×5.5; could we create a deal with Seattle to select him to flip to us? Or how about Yanni Gourde, or Alex Killorn, or Mark Giordano, or even Jonathan Quick as a 1B to Ned as 1A? I think the possibilities are quite large here.
Just imagine how many picks and prospects Seattle could accumulate by flipping all the players like that: Tarasenko, Eberly, Bailey, Voracek, Gourde, Killorn, Palat, Duchene, Johansen JvR, etc. And they have the ability retain salary. Big opportunity for Seattle to become a handsomely paid trade-broker.
Unless I’m missing something important here, we’re about to have another trade-deadline day except it’s going to be this Thursday’s Expansion Draft. I’m expecting quite a bit of movement. We’ll probably have a chance to plug some holes this week. Given our willingness to deal, I am not going to be surprised to see us in the middle of the trade action.
In this vein, it seems like Seattle could do really well stockpiling futures if they select a couple good, but maybe overpriced players, eat some salary cap and then trade them.
Who wouldn’t want Tarasenko for 2 years at $4M per year if Seattle picked him and at $3.5M of salary. How about Niederreiter at $2.5-3M. Price is a bit tougher because he has 5 years remaining on his deal, but if Francis was willing to take on some dead cap space for a couple years, he has the ability basically select players and reprice them. (Trying to remember, but I think a team can only have retained salary on 2-3 contracts, so the question is whether this is best use versus just taking bad contracts like Canes did with Marleau for maximum payment.)
Regardless, the possibilities are intriguing.
Tarasenko is only 29, but has played only 34 games in the past two seasons. The real question is what are his health issues? You would think teams would know more than the public, but the Canes signed Gardiner and obviously didn’t know enough about his back issues. If Tarasenko is ready to play he could be the star for the Kraken to build around for a few years. In that case, why trade him?
Before the qeustions, I agree with dmilleravid about the interesting prospects for trades being routed through SEA. If Francis had a history of “hockey trades” I would be much more intrigued. I am very curious to see how this will end up.
1. There have been a lot of rumblings about Foegele and the team agreeing on a separation. Protecting Foegele allows to trade his his rights at any time. And I think Fast is more valuable at $2M than Nino at $5.25 – I think what he brings can be more cheaply found elsewhere.
Skjei over Bean is a no-brainer that wants to win now.
And I am in the camp that thinks SEA will not pick Bean – particularly if it wants to follow the Vegas keey to inaugural season success because…
2. A veteran and reasonably productive veteran like Nino is more important for initial success than a player, like Bean, who is still working to achieve his potential. And it is not a “reach the minimum cap” thing – but win out of the gate. But then we are talking about Francis who always had a long view of things and picked players for the future. So who knows.
3. I think they are so far apart on numbers ($2?, $3M??) that it is very unlikely we re-sign Hamilton Heiskanen at $8.45??, and Dougie is a Norris finalist??
4. I definitely think Francis picks up Fleury – who remains exactly what he was with us, an excellent 3rd pairing D at a reasonable price. I would pick Fleury over Bean any day of the week that ends with “y”.
I jsut haven’t looked at the other lists to know who would also be tempting – but I do know that Francis will not pick a player making “silly money” – Duchene. And that is why a lot of big dollar players were exposed to the ED.