Happy Fourth of July to fellow Caniacs in the United States!
If you are checking in to find analysis of Friday’s Calvin de Haan sighting, you can find that interrelated article HERE.
Sometimes when something just makes too much sense (in my opinion anyway), I latch onto it and chirp at it incessantly. (Sorry about the Max Pacioretty thing last winter.) But every so often the annoyance eventually yields fruit.
After beating the ‘why the Canes should sign Calvin de Haan’ thing into the ground for multiple days, the deal actually occurred. Under cover of the night heading into a national holiday, the Carolina Hurricanes announced that they had signed Calvin de Haan to a four-year contract for $4.55 million per year.
I discussed the Calvin de Haan signing in some detail HERE and also retraced the trail of targeting him as an addition.
As I noted in that article, I expected the order to be reversed with Justin Faulk being traded first and then Calvin De Haan being signed either simultaneously or shortly thereafter. Though the order is a bit different, I still fully expect the end game to be the same.
The current Carolina Hurricanes blue line
Top 4-capable (or at least hopeful) right shot defensemen (3): Brett Pesce, Dougie Hamilton, Justin Faulk.
Top 4-capable (or at least hopeful) left shot defensemen (2): Jaccob Slavin, Calvin, de Haan.
Third pairing defensemen (2): Trevor van Riemsdyk (needs to be signed), Haydn Fleury.
When one nets it out, the Hurricanes now have on extra top 4 defensemen on the right side of the blue line. With Hamilton and de Haan just acquired, Justin Faulk figures to be the odd man out.
Some might think that he could just drop down to the third pairing especially with Trevor van Riemsdyk unsigned and at least per reports not seeing eye to eye with team management on his next contract. But even the expensive version of van Riemsdyk at something like $3 million per year is half of the $6 million (salary not cap hit) that Faulk is scheduled to earn in the two years remaining for his current contract.
I will be very surprised if Justin Faulk makes it to training camp still with the Carolina Hurricanes.
Seems simple enough to do a deal then. Right?
As obvious as it is that Justin Faulk is likely to depart, Don Waddell and the Hurricanes brain trust still has its work cut out for it to make it happen. Faulk supposedly has a partial no-trade list that kicked in on July 1. (This was reported by Bob McKenzie from TSN but does not show up on Capfriendly, so who knows what for sure is the real situation.) Regardless, Faulk’s mixed bag for 2017-18 could make some potential suitors disinterested. His cap hit is not astronomical at $4.8 million, but is enough to force calculator work. And then there is the matter of a fair return for an alleged top 4 defenseman who was not great in that role last season.
Adding to the complexity is the fact that the Hurricanes are probably still aggressively shopping Jeff Skinner. There has simply been too much (confirmed) noise about such deals being considered for this not also to be in process. With a full no-trade clause and a contract that expires at the end of the 2018-19 season, Skinner’s situation is even more complex.
In addition, if you assume that Trevor van Riemsdyk is re-signed for $2.5 million per year, the Hurricanes are suddenly about $8 million above the salary cap floor. The team could trade one of Skinner or Faulk for futures and not take significant salary back and still be safely above the salary cap floor by a few million dollars, but trading both without taking back significant salary on at least one would not work.
But the fact that the left shot replacement for Faulk was signed as a free agent does add flexibility. No longer do the Hurricanes need to obtain a defenseman back in one of these two trades. As such, the team has two higher-end players that might be traded but arguably only has one needed return (a scoring-capable top half of the roster player).
So the flexibility could play a significant role in the end result.
What is the ideal outcome?
At a basic level, I stand by the first of two domino scenarios that I proposed in Tuesday’s Daily Cup of Joe before the de Haan signing.
I suggested:
Justin Faulk is traded for a scoring forward => Calvin deHaan is signed as a free agent => Jeff Skinner is traded primarily for high-end futures possibly with a depth forward or defenseman included
By adding de Haan via free agency instead of trade, this version of dealing sees the Hurricanes replace Faulk, replace Skinner and still net a nice pile of futures to boot.
I still think that is the ideal scenario. Because of the no-trade clause and possible requirement that the acquiring team would want to have a contract extension already agreed to, Skinner’s situation could well play out deep into the summer. I think the ideal thing to do would be to trade Faulk to add scoring help. Even if Skinner stays, the team could use more offensive fire power, but the deal could also pave the way to being more flexible with a Skinner trade and taking a haul of futures and/or young players.
Trading Skinner to obtain the scoring help to replace his departure could be hard to do. Any team acquiring Skinner would be doing so with the aim of boosting their offense, so giving up a comparable forward would just be two steps forward and then two steps back. And with the Hurricanes no longer needing top 4 level defensive help, a three-way trade could be possible, but I also think simpler might be to use Faulk to add forward help and then trade Skinner to collect a high-end set of futures possible with a depth NHLer included in the package.
So I think the ideal outcome goes like this:
1) Justin Faulk is traded for a comparable forward who is proven at the NHL level and leans offense.
2) Jeff Skinner is later dealt with the primary return being a high-end package of futures.
So let’s do deals…
Since most of what I predict/suggest is purely from a position of logic and not from the regular batch of rumors making the rounds, some of what I suggest seems to come out of left field. But at the end of the day, deals happen because there is rationale for them from both teams’ perspective. So if one can think through all of the angles for different teams, it is possible (like in the case of the de Haan deal) come up with deals that are viable despite not making the rounds with the NHL media.
In that vein, the deal that I actually thinks makes the most sense is one that I proposed in the Tuesday article, pre-de Haan signing. With the Maple Leafs strong at forward (and now even stronger with John Tavares) and the Hurricanes at least theoretically deep on defense, the two have been bandied around by just about everyone as possible trade partners for two years. The current iteration has the Hurricanes trying to trade Faulk or previously Hanifin for William Nylander. As part of the four-player forward core, I would be shocked if the Leafs would even entertain a deal like this. Then from the Leafs side, I sometimes here people suggest Kasperi Kapanen and AHL goalie prospect Garrett Sparks. I think Sparks being a primary component is just as crazy as Nylander. At best, Sparks is a prospect who has yet to prove he can succeed at the NHL level. Kapanen is a bit more of a sure thing at least as a third-line forward, but he too has yet to really prove what he can do at the NHL level. As such, I count both as high-end prospects and not a great starting point to build a package that entices the Hurricanes. But with the addition of John Tavares, I think the new wild card is Nazem Kadri. Kadri is suddenly a third-line center on a team that should generate a bunch of offense with its top two lines. And with salary cap crunch coming for the Leafs is it possible that Kadri is suddenly expendable? Despite the fact Kadri’s name has not been a regular one in the trade rumor mill, I just think it makes too much sense not to at least be a possiblity.
Past Kadri and the Leafs, Ryan-Nugent Hopkins from the Oilers has long been a regular in trade considerations. Like Kadri, Nugent-Hopkins would add another proven offensive center.
When I get back to Canes hockey after the Fourth of July, my hope is to do a deeper inspection of all of the other 30 NHL teams hoping to identify a couple other targets that could make sense despite not being regulars in the rumor mill.
But at a simple level, the goal would be to unload Faulk to add a comparable level scoring forward.
A wild card
With the Hurricanes adding one higher-end need without giving up trade assets to do so, could it be possible to trade trade either Jeff Skinner or Justin Faulk possibly with Petr Mrazek to add a higher-end goalie?
What say you Canes fans?
1) Is a deal trading Faulk now inevitable?
2) Do you agree that with Calvin de Haan acquired via free agency, that the Hurricanes might now have the flexibility to collect futures instead of a comparable NHL player for Skinner and/or Faulk?
3) Who has potential forward trade targets that are not regulars in the rumor mill but could make sense?
Go Canes!
1) Matt you’ve been on point this summer. Your prediction came true and I do agree now that it has unfolded with De Haan the situation you outline is the ideal one. Faulk for roster player – and IF needed Skinner for futures or w.e really. However I am in the keep Skinner camp – especially if Faulk returns them a forward I agree Skinner + Necas/Svech/Faulk’s return would be enough offense to make the playoffs. And plus if we can keep adding scoring forwards it gives Rod less and less reason to utilize Skinner as anything more than a specialist if he doesn’t dig in defensively.
2) They signed a defensive dman – who is not going to move the needle offensively. Does that mean I think they should now trade two OFFENSIVE minded players (to be honest – before Aho arrived let’s not forget Faulk and Skinner were ACTUALLY our two best offensive players) for futures? On a team that can’t score goals? God no. I mean if the plan is to continue rebuilding then fine – but if Necas and Svech are this good then why not build for this year so that by year 3 of their entry level contracts you can be competing for a cup? No need to waste any time if the team truly believes those two are elite.
So i’m definitely in the move faulk for a forward. The issue with Skinner is that a team is unlikely to return a forward for him – would be too lateral a move unless someone is downgrading. Skinner seems more likely to be sold for futures – but in that case keep him till at least the trade deadline I say. Use his offense for 60 games then sell off his last 20 games for assets.
3) Mark Stone, Charlie Coyle, Ondrej Palat, Eric Staal, Boone Jenner, Matt Duchene, Derick Brassard, Jason Spezza, Bryan Little. Lots of names and when I browse through other teams almost all of them have at least one forward that I’d like to see in a Canes uniform. So I don’t think it’s for lack of options it’s about finding the right price and fit. Not in order of importance but I think the forward needs to have all or many of these qualities:
1. Plays heavy.
2. Goal scorer and net front presence
3. can play center.
Amazing when I list the things the Canes need from a forward Eric Staal fits the bill SO well – and he still fit the bill when he was a free agent after we traded him. To me that summer screamed big time win to trade staal for assets and then RESIGN him for zero assets other than cap space. I had been on record that summer saying they should go UP to 5 million per season for staal. Of course he signed 3.5 in Minnesota… That was such a personal decision that was made that hurt the franchise because we just HAD to move on right? Classic Canes – need to move on because culture change blah blah captain too much pressure on himself, yet the player was not the issue of course it was the organization…
Goalie is exactly what crossed my mind last night after the signing. Could we possibly trade Skinner and Darling/Mrazek for a good goalie? Then trade Faulk for a forward? We would be set!
Hell, I’d be willing to trade Faulk and Skinner for a solid Goalie if we HAD to.
I am overjoyed to see that we signed Calvin DeHaan. This is a coup on several levels. Of course, it fills a gaping hole in our defensive corps. He also gives us the gritty stay-at-home d-man we desperately need. I am not crazy about the injury history, but this is professional ice hockey after all, not badminton.
There are those who will complain that because he is not offensively inclined that he will not be a contributor to our offense. I do bot agree. I believe that when Cal is paired with an offensive minded player like Dougie, Dougie will learn to trust that he can do his thing confident that Cal will cover for him. That is Cal’s contribution to the offense. And it will be substantial.
But I am also immensely pleased that TD can serve the media (who have been beating him up for being a stingy fool) a steaming s— sandwich. I think that’s why he timed it as he did, and also why he revealed the money and terms in the announcement. Also, we can now deal with the rest of the NHL (teams and players alike) from a position of strength and credibility. A coup.
Yay Tom! Go Canes!
I don’t see us trading Faulk until we come to terms with TVR. The longer it drags on, I see the likelihood that TVR might walk. Faulk would suddenly become untouchable; at least for a while.
But if TVR does sign, then I see Faulk going soon.
I don’t want to see Skinny go anywhere. He has nothing to prove to anyone. He is an elite scorer who, in a bad year for him and a worse year for the team, led the NHL in takeaways. And yet there are those who would single him out as “defensively irresponsible”? It makes no sense to me.
What makes less sense, is to send off our most proven elite scorer. No sense at all. I don’t buy the attitude rumors. He is still the last man off the ice at every pre-game skate.
Do I have a wish list of players to target for trade that don’t show up on every rumor-monger’s list? Yes, I do.
1) Jason Spezza
2) Jeff Carter
3) Ryan Getzlaf
4) Artem Anisimov
5) Eric Staal
6) Claude Giroux
7) Laurent Dauphin
What it might take to obtain one of them would vary. But each would fill a need we have up front.
If you want to know if Dundon is cheap ask a Hurricanes employee.
1) I hope so–because moving a right D is inevitable. Though I think Faulk’s value actually decreased due to the de Haan signing. The Canes have a surplus and according to basic economics that means value diminishes.
2) I agree with you reasoning that one more forward is needed (I still want a sound two-way forward if there is an organizational commitment to starting the season with Necas and Svechnikov on the same line). The organization really needs another proven penalty killer as well. An outside-the-box option would be get another goalie thrown in who can create a 3-way competition in training camp.
3) Given my responses to 1 and 2. I think the best offer the Canes get for Faulk might be Zach Hyman and Calvin Picard from Toronto. Hyman is a sound two-way LW who likes to hit and can be a strong addition to the PK. His offense was reasonable last season 15 goals, 25 assists and he might still have a little more offense. Pickard has experience as a starter. While his one year starting in Colorado wasn’t impressive, it was on a team that was a disaster. Otherwise he has been consistently good in the AHL and international play. Toronto seems to being moving Sparks ahead of him. I don’t see Toronto trading Kadri due to his really good contract. There aren’t any other 30-goal centers making $4.5M. The Leafs need to control costs the next two seasons. Faulk for Kadri actually increases their payroll a little. Also, Kadri hasn’t played any on the PK (am I the only one worried about the penalty killing this season?).
The only other trade option I really like is RNH and some picks for both Faulk and Skinner. The mentions of Minnesota are interesting, but both Coyle and Niederreiter are RWs. Though I like Faulk for Coyle–since he can play C, his flexibility would give Carolina options.
I
It seems that Faulk will be traded, but what if there are issues with the demands of VanReimsdyk? I doubt the Canes want to give him more than a couple years and he may want more. The Canes do need room in the next year or two to develop players. If he is demanding more than two years I can see the Canes moving VanReimsdyk and keeping Faulk. Faulk could be a piece to trade at the deadline in a year or two if Fox is knocking at the door ready to play in the NHL.
I think people are overestimating the issue with Trevor van Riemsdyk.
He is a restricted free agent with arbitration rights, so he does not have the ability to leave. Worst case is that it gets a little ugly, he goes to arbitration and gets a 1 or 2-year deal for a bit too much money. That could also set the wheels in motion for him to depart, but the team controls when and how that happens as a no-trade clause would not be part of arbitration. In that worst case scenario, there is bit of work to do to make sure that van Riemsdyk stays heads down (which he must anyway if we wants to keep his value up and get traded), but that’s manageable and on Brind’Amour, the captain(s) and van Riemsdyk himself.
But to be clear, I think there is a good chance that more is being made of this than is really the case. For players with a wide range of possible values, it is quite common for these situations to stretch out right up until an arbitration date late in the summer.
As I said on Twitter, I had van Riemsdyk pegged at $1.8-2 million per year entering the summer, but the run of depth defensemen signing for $2.25-3M on July 1 probably bumped that up and further fueled van Riemsdyk’s push for a bit more coming off a strong season in a limited role. But the positive is that I think that run of consistent pricing will also aid reaching an agreement.
I am on record as saying 2 years at $2.4-2.5 million per year, and I do not think the process should be that complicated to get there given the number of comparables.
I thought the same thing about Lindholm and Hanifin and looked what happened to them … maybe the situations were a little different but …
Good point. Looks like Dundon may have a low tolerance for negotiating tactics from agents. Not long after the press was reporting there was a big gulf between what the Canes offered and what Hanifin wanted he was traded. No way that information was leaked by the Canes.
Haven’t heard any rumors from the VanReimsdyk camp so far, which is a good thing.
I tend to agree with you about TVR, Matt. But he is a right-handed d-man who did a good job in a defensive role. Thus, he could be in demand to some out there. And while the chances are remote, I see the possibility of certain things happening. Now, I am not as knowledgeable of these things as I would like to be, so I will pose the possibilities as questions:
1) Both before and after the arbitration, is TVR free to go to the KHL?
2) in the unlikely scenario that TVR wins the arbitration, if we walk away, is he suddenly a UFA?
3) Can other teams give TVR an offer sheet?
I think the odds of Faulk being traded went up but it might be TvR instead. Does anyone know how Faulk plays with Fleury? I can’t remember.
MIN is another team with a new GM that hasn’t really done anything this offseason and said it was planning to. They have a decent set of RHD so it’s hard to see Faulk landing there, but they may decide to trade Dumba (same RFA issue that we did with Hanifin) which makes room for Faulk in a deal. I’m not sure that would make sense, though. Coyle, Zucker, NN, and even Staal are all guys I would be happy to have.
EDM is short a RHD. Maybe something like Rask+Faulk for RHN+Lucic (1/2 salary retained)+[].
CHI is in real trouble; they are really behind the eight-ball with bad deals so something is possible there, I just don’t know what they could really give up other than Saad.
TBY: Faulk+[] for JT Miller+[]?
OTT is going to need another RHD once they trade Karlsson, so maybe we have a chance to be aggressive with them and go after Mark Stone: something like Faulk+[Rask maybe] for Mark Stone+[].
Canes need to sit back and wait out the Karlsson situation. Once he is moved, the X number of teams who lost out should circle around and then a trade to move Faulk out will happen.
I agree in part, on the other hand speculation was a Skinner move would wait for Tavares…that is still TBD.
We also grabbed de Haan prior to the Karlsson situation figuring itself out. So while waiting is key, I don’t think Donnie will wait too long. We are in control and that’s advantage ‘Canes.
As I mentioned yesterday, I still think Minny is the place Faulk lands. Makes sense from a standpoint of Faulk waiving his partial NTC to play at home and the Wild having plenty of wing options that we could benefit from. In return a guy like Nino can backfill Skinner’s spot on the 3rd line (if/when we trade Skins).
Toronto and Edmonton are ideal trade partners to land a more ideal center, but I just don’t think those teams serving up Nylander or RNH (though I’d be pleased for sure if that happened).
Matt – good call on deHaan…I had a lesser backfill with trying to obtain Enstrom on that 2nd pair LHD but I give you credit for staying adamant on this one. Needless to say, I am pleased!
In answer to (2) Waddell left that door open by saying just that – they could “fill other needs” or restock with picks/prospects. I do think the latter is far more likely than some of the trades suggested above. The nice thing about picks/prospects is that you can flip those (like when you are a buyer at the trade deadline).
If we get a forward in return for Faulk that backfills Skinner’s spot, ala 2nd/3rd line winger, then I agree best picks/prospects package for Skinner would suit us well. I know some have mentioned upgrading goaltending, but I don’t see that happening this summer. Mrazek is pumped for the opportunity and I’m in the camp of seeing what this guy has in him because he HAS done it before. Then to your point, if we need an upgrade anywhere during the season that quality pick or two will help us get there.
Just out getting ice for the cookout and listened to NHL radio. Which got me thinking about one of Matt’s prior ideas and something dmiller mentioned.
Interest in Pacioretty has lessened according to NHL Radio’s insider. So how about Skinner and Rask, since Montreal needs centers. They would probably throw in a prospect (I like Ylonen). I think Pacioretty would be great with Necas and Svechnikov, in fact playing on that line might convince him to re-sign in Raleigh. If not, it gives the rookies a veteran for their first year.
Wallmark could be brought up to center Martinook and Ferland.
Zykov/Aho/TT
Pacioretty/Necas/Svech
McGinn/Staal/Williams
Ferland/Wallmark/Martinook
Not likely, but those would be competitive lines against just about any team.
If we move both Faulk and Skinner for picks and prospects, we would be under the salary cap floor. From a financial perspective, we need a well paid roster player or two.
There are few situations where a trade of Skinner or Faulk won’t bring back significant salary in a trade.
Canes could trade 1 not both of Skinner or Faulk without taking salary back and still easily be above the floor. If you count van Riemsdyk as $2.5M as an estimate, then even before adding #7 defenseman and possible a depth forward to the roster, the Hurricanes would be $2-3 above the minimum.
It would only become an issue if both players were traded solely for futures which I do not see happening.
First off, repeated thumbs up to TD and the Canes braintrust. I’ve been on record as a fierce critic of their reluctance to invest in roster upgrades and I am officially happy to swallow some of them words, I have plenty of leftover brew to wash ’em down with (4th of July should not be on a Wednesday, but the brew won’t go bad before Friday night).
The Oilers blogger on Hockeybuzz bemoans the two gaping needs of the team
http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Sean-Maloughney/New-Names-Same-Problems/261/93797
they are (you guessed it) an RHD and a talented winger.
They’re pushing RNH to the wing because there’s nobody in the system that can do it, and Ty Raddy is on their top line.
So Skinner + Faulk to Edm for RNH plus a first round pick plus Lucic (if Edm retains half his salary).
That being said, I’m still mystified why the Canes want to trade away their top scorer, especially for picks and prospects.
The team is not in rebuild mode, it is in taking the next step mode, and a season with Skinner, especially a motivated Skinner seeing the upgrades around him, is an asset we can ill afford to lose.
The team traded away Eric “Staal years ago. So far they got no NHL caliber player out of that trade (it might change this year, I hope so, but it is less than 50/50).
In the meantime Staal has scored 70 or so goals for Minnesota.
I was on the trade Eric Staal bandwagon at the time, but seeing how the deal worked out I regret that opinion.
So, sure, Skinner may walk for nothing next year, or may not yield as much at the trade deadline, but we’re not thinking a about next year, just like we are not thinking about a possible NHL extension in two years, we’re thinking about putting together a roster that can bring back hockey to North Carolina starting next season.
If that works and the team makes the playoffs, that is a motivation for Skinner to stay and sign a new deal.