I have in process a somewhat formal preseason preview series that I drafted last week and then shelved temporarily late last week with the news of Justin Williams being named captain and the potential Hurricanes impact of Erik Karlsson being traded.
My hope is to tie up loose ends and have this preview posted before the team takes to the ice for preseason action on Tuesday against Tampa Bay.
On Thursday just before the start of the Carolina Hurricanes first training camp practice, the team announced that Victor Rask would require surgery on his fourth and fifth fingers which were injured in a kitchen accident earlier in the summer.
Then on Sunday Rod Brind’Amour declared that Rask’s injury would keep him out for “months”.
Rask injury will be “months,” Brind’Amour said. It was a major surgery that included repairing tendons.
— Cory Lavalette (@corylav) September 16, 2018
Looking backward
Looking backward to Victor Rask’s 2017-18, his injury might not seem like a big loss for the team on the ice. Rask had a sub-par season. His production and play in general was sluggish out of the gate and well into the season. He did rebound modestly in the second half of the season, but in total the season was not a good one for Victor Rask. His scoring plummeted from 46 points in 2016-17 to a mere 31 in 2017-18 even after a modest push late in the season.
With Sebastian Aho moving to center and Martin Necas hopefully on the way, Rask entered the offseason as a fourth line center if everything else worked out as hoped. As such, he would not seem to be a significant loss nor hard to replace.
Looking forward to the Carolina Hurricanes 2018-19 season
But I think that overly simplistic analysis that slots him as a fourth line center and then jumps to the conclusion that he is easily replaceable fails to consider the more detailed structure of the Carolina Hurricanes projected 2018-19 lineup. In an article on August 29 entitled, “Three players who I am higher on than the consensus”, I talked about Rask’s importance and role despite his challenging 2017-18 season.
Jordan Staal will anchor the center group and take as many of the hard minutes and match ups as Head Coach Rod Brind’Amour can get him on the ice for.
But after that, things quickly become uncertain. Sebastian Aho has two years of NHL experience and an impressive trajectory early in his career. Because of his comfort level in the NHL in general and his hockey IQ, Aho figures to successfully transition to the center position and continue on his current path upward. But having played only a short stint at center late in the 2017-18 season, he is effectively a rookie at the position in the NHL and will inevitably have some growing pains as he adjusts.
Martin Necas enters training camp as the odds on favorite to win the third center slot and center another scoring-capable line. Necas ceiling is incredibly high, and he does project to be a good top 9 center if not more. But he enters the 2018-19 NHL season with exactly one game of NHL experience as a wing.
So that pecking order would, theoretically, slotted Rask as the fourth-line center. But given the inexperience down the middle, I think the utilization would have been much different than a run of the mill fourth line that plays limited minutes and is steered away from tough match ups. I actually think a fourth line centered by Rask and including a couple defensively responsible wings would have been deployed as a second defensive unit behind Staal’s line. Aho’s line will obviously get its minutes and be used in various situations, but utilization would lean offense. And depending somewhat on who else was on the line, I think Necas line at least early in the season would be used opportunistically as well and sheltered to some degree. Especially on the road, that would make a defensively-capable line centered by Rask sort of a 2B line behind Staal’s to take defensive zone draws and the lion’s share of the tough match ups.
What now?
If the team does not make a trade to add another center, training camp is now an open competition for the fourth center slot.
Lucas Wallmark would figure to be the front runner in my book, but Janne Kuokkanen can also play wing or center and could factor in. And with no experienced option on a one-way contract, the door is also wide open for a dark horse like Nicolas Roy to leap frog a couple other players and find himself in the NHL in early October.
Assuming the Hurricanes do not make a trade for an experienced center, the team now figures to enter the 2018-19 season with two rookie centers and Sebastian Aho very early in his transition to the position. As such, Brind’Amour really loses the ability to try to shield inexperience a bit and instead would need to just challenge the young players to make development strides quickly and grow into these roles. The skill level of the players battling for roster spots is high enough that an ahead of schedule transition is possible, but it is also asking a lot for players like Necas, Wallmark, Kuokkanen and/or Roy to line up across from Crosby and Malkin one night and then Matthews and Tavares another and then Bergeron the next and play break even or better hockey.
So as is with the current roster, the situation offers a sink or swim for young players that will either see them find a rapid development path at the NHL level or possibly push the 2018-19 season into one of development, growing pains and more or less rebuilding.
Could the Hurricanes look outside the organization?
I have long been on record as think the last desired deal for the offseason is to trade Justin Faulk for a scoring-capable forward and just revisited this on Friday.
That was the case before the Rask injury, and I believe it to be a high enough priority that the team has already been exploring options available. So while theoretically Rask’s injury could increase the urgency to convert Faulk to a forward, I am not sure that is any different than prior. And as far as targeting a center over a wing now, I am not sure much really changes. In a beggars can’t be choosers vein, I think the team would take any good top 6-capable forward of comparable value right now just to get the deal done and move forward.
So at a basic level, I do not see Rask’s injury much affecting what was already the case. I guess the small change could be that the Hurricanes become just a bit more aggressive in terms of what they would include to get a deal done.
How does it end?
I think the possibility of adding a player from outside the organization in a trade for Justin Faulk is still a possibility but far from a certainty. If there was a good deal to be had, I think it would already have happened regardless of Rask’s injury. From the category of ‘him again?’, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is interesting. He could play center short-term or long-term, but he could also slot at left wing replacing Jeff Skinner with a versatile, proven, offensively-capable left wing who could play on a checking line with Jordan Staal or on a scoring line with Sebastian Aho and Teuvo Teravainen.
My starting point is figuring that Aho continues his transition to center and also that Necas wins an NHL slot. Those two plus Staal still leave a hole where Rask used to be. Barring a trade, I think the internal competition comes down to Lucas Wallmark and Janne Kuokkanen with an edge to Wallmark because of legalese and timing. Though I like Nicolas Roy’s development path, I do not see him as NHL-ready yet. Without consideration for the contract stuff, I would consider Kuokkanen and Wallmark an even battle. But with Wallmark 23 years old (3 years older than Kuokkanen, having done all he can do at the AHL level and maybe most significantly needing to clear waivers to return to the AHL, I think the team will have a significant bias to give Wallmark the first run of games in the open center slot.
So if I had to wager right now, I would bet on Lucas Wallmark stepping into Rask’s slot. Ironically, I see Wallmark’s skill set as somewhat similar to Rask’s but possibly with a bit more upside offensively. Like Rask, Wallmark is good in terms of decision-making and positioning in his two-way play but is below average in terms of mobility therefore making that decision-making/positioning critical.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Do you think the Victor Rask injury increases the urgency to deal Justin Faulk for forward help?
2) If the slot is filled internally, who do you think wins the open center slot for opening night? (Also list the other three centers since there is some potential variation there too.)
3) How significant of a setback do you see the long-term loss of Victor Rask being in terms of icing a competitive hockey team for the 2018-19 season?
Go Canes!
1) It does for me. I don’t think it will for the organization. Staying just above the cap floor appears to be an objective. My guess is that insurance kicks in to cover Rask’s missed games. In effect, if Rask misses 30 games or so, the Canes will be just above the floor in actual salary paid (since Faulk’s salary this year is more than his cap hit).
What I really wonder about is the timing of Rask’s injury. What is “earlier this summer?” I find it hard to believe that damage to tendons was not considered regarding a professional athlete. Was Rask told to wait until returning for training camp to get an opinion about surgery? If this injury occurred 5 weeks ago, Rask could be well on the way to recovery. This has been poorly handled–or maybe perfectly managed from management’s perspective.
2) Wallmark. We all kept hearing he was “the single most NHL-ready player in the entire AHL.” He also was serviceable, not terribly productive, but serviceable, during his games last season. He will join Aho/Staal/Necas.
3) I was already getting concerned about the team competitiveness. Despite all the apparent change to the culture, there still seems to be an acceptance for not winning. One of my friends has an uncanny ability to run into Canes’ players, usually at Whole Foods. Her social media often includes photos with players.
A current player responded to a question about losing by saying: “It’s pretty easy for me to shake off a loss or shake off a bad game.”
I am not sure one preseason, even with all the change, is going to turn things 180 degrees. Especially now with even more inexperience. Sorry to be so skeptical before even one preseason game. I am usually overoptimistic about the Canes, but something just seems amiss.
Are we sure about the ‘earlier this summer’ conspiracy theory? By all reports, VR was in town and skating in the pre-skates…..
I would very much like to know when Rask suffered these injuries. If it were earlier in the year then I have to ask if our management is asleep at the wheel. It did not sound like these injuries happened just the other day.
1. Prospects and picks won’t help the Canes, but management prefers them to save cash. I don’t see Faulk being dealt for a quality forward.
The team my explore PTOs. Remaining names include
Nick Shore (I say take a chance on him), Freddie Hamilton (family connection, not a great player),
Jussi Jokinen (nostalgic, was dumped by the organization but brings memories of past glory ). If it were me, I’d try to get Shore onboard. Some potential for a surprise season, reliable underlying stats, experience.
Dominic Moore, the old Canes killer, is still out there, but old is the operative word.
2. Walmark, he’s cheap. He deserves a legitimate shot at the big club, no question.
3. The team is a joke, , 2 goalies hoping for a miracle and 4 or so solid forwards supplemented primarily by kids that failed to dominate in Traverse City. I can’t see anything but tanking here. Reminder, I want to be wrong about this.
Why wasn’t Rask’s injury addressed when it occured? There is more at play here. If I cut my fingers I don’t wait a month to seak help.
I think this is another cost cutting move, clever for the bank account, it adds to the Kaiten savings, not so attractive for improving the team.
Interesting feedback. Do you have a link that reports Rask cut his hand a month ago? The teams official report just reads that he cut his hand and had surgery. The official site also had him skating in informal skates.
Maybe it is another example of the team being cheap like this one-
https://mobile.twitter.com/happykidlets/status/1038431088589385730
Helping improve community hockey rinks to grow hockey for the kids is so Scrooge of the team.
The link is highlighted in Matt’s post. I questioned the timeline. Capfriendly shows Carolina as having the lowest payroll.
I am glad about the community outreach. Good job that I acknowledge. That doesn’t lessen my interest in the injury timeline.
The link is to the official site which does not have when the injury occurred. This is why I wondered if I was missing something.
Earlier in the summer could be from June 21 to last week. Certainly nothing that confirms the injury happened a month ago.
This wasn’t charity from the Canes. They invested with the Polar group to have a practice facility at the new rink in Morrisville. I’m sure part of the deal was to rebrand the local rinks, all run by Polar, for the Hurricanes. Nice move, but not exactly charity. Business.
This is an opportunity for Jordan Martinook to step up into the 4th line center role.
Precisely. I think he went from competing to be healthy extra-12th forward to now being firmly entrenched in the 4th line C role along with probably #1 PK duties.
I am not buying into some conspiracy theory about Rask’s injury. Delaying a surgery in order to cash in on some insurance and tank the team? It’s going to have to be someone more important than the 4th line centerman to tank the team.
Somewhere the idea that this happened earlier this summer was stated. I don’t remember where. If it did happen in Sweden then how can you blame the Canes? Cut could have healed and Rask was trying to play through the pain. Unfortunately, those kind of injuries to the hand have a domino effect. Brind’Amour had a similar injury while in Carolina. Can’t play with it.
If I have an injury in July that may impact my ability to play in September I will do everything I can to have the problem assessed and corrected immediately and expect my employer to support that.
I don’t have to play through injuries, , I’m on vacation.
My job is to come into camp in the best physical condition I can be.
Fingers can get broken and they take time to heal, but the seriousness of such an injury can be assessed when it happens, not 6 weeks later.
Maybe you’re a hockey player and a young, inexperienced human being. Maybe you think it will be OK. Maybe you live in Sweden and getting an MRI isn’t easy. All much more likely than some conspiracy theory where Viktor Rask is complicit in not seeking medical care and sitting out a large portion of the season.
The conspiracy theory and the “wait for surgery” line blow me away as a serious discussion.
First, RBA – when announcing that Rask was having surgery said the injury happened earlier in the summer when Rask cut his fingers – including slicing through tendons – while preparing food.
Second, Rask did return to Raleigh and was at multiple informal skates.
Third, prior to any mention of Rask’s surgery RBA said Rask said he was feeling good – referencing his shoulder.
So what happened?
I can speak from personal experience – I ruptured a finger tendon about 15 years ago (a complete or near-complete tear). You can flex your finger without strength, but cannot straighten (that is what the tendon does).
The correct non-surgical treatment is to immobilize the finger in a splint allowing the tendon to reconnect and heal. I cannot remember if it was 4 weeks, 6 weeks, or 8 weeks for me. When the comes off the tendon is (or should be) reconnected but now has no flexibility. I recall having about 10% flexion at that joint. It took several months of physical therapy and exercise before I could even get to 50% flexion (with strength) and it was close to a year before I got near 100%. To this day the finger still doesn’t feel the same.
On the basis of my experience and the evidence of Rask appearing at the informal skates I believe that he came back too early, before the tendons had completely healed and that he re-tore the tendons during one of these skates. Surgical intervention would now be required and, yes, it will take months before he can grip the stick again.
1. I think it changes both the urgency of such a trade, and the dynamics. Under what I think is a reasonable assumption that O/M pulled back from trying to trade Faulk (failing to get a good return) to wait4 for a team that has identified a need for a RHD to approach, allowing us to bargain from a position of strength. Now have a more pressing need to fill – hopefully a win-win comes from it.
2. I am thinking Wallmark, even more so now that I realize he has to pass waivers to return to Charlotte. Wallmark will almost assuredly get picked up in waivers by another team if we send him down. I wouldn’t worry too much about Wallmark in that role, although it is a change from the model of Rask. I think he will be fine, particularly if he has a couple of experienced wingers (like Martinook, who could also take draws). I think it argues more for Martinook having a more significat role than one might have expected.`
3. I think it really is a loss just as you have indicated, Matt. As a 4th line center Rask would have been one of the best in the league and would have thrived there as well as helping cover Aho or Necas. Now we are very young and inexperienced down the center and I think that will have a major impact on how the team plays coming out of the gate.
In reply to your 2) – I actually don’t see Wallmark cracking the roster. We’ve seen a lot of him so far and he hasn’t impressed at the NHL level aside from a potential depth role.
I think the 4 center options starting the year are: Staal, Aho, Necas, Martinook. Limited experience but it is what it is after the Rask injury. A lot of pressure on Aho and Necas but I think they can step up to the plate.
Thumbs up for the community hockey effort, that’s a great thing.
Conspiracy or no conspiracy, the team is awfully inexperienced at forward, especially at center.
I’m worried the kids will get eaten alive by the superstar centers of the NHL in the first 6 weeks and be out of playoff contention by Thanksgiving. It doesn’t mean they won’t be great some day, heck maybe even in a year or two, but we’re asking too much of them thriving in such difficult roles right off the bat. It’s not impossible but I’d give playoffs a 20% chance or less with the current roster.
I think the team should either trade for an experience center )and those are not easy to find) or at least try to sign a UFA with something to prove (see my earlier list), my vote is on Nick Shore. Good at draws, defensively responsible, not flashy but solid 4th line center. He can help Walmark grow and Walmark can be used on other lines based on how Aho and Necas handle their new duties.
In somewhat related news, Crawford is dealing with injuries so Ward is going to be the starter for the Blackhawks, behind a pretty depleted defense. I’m sure that’s not what he signed up for, but we wish him well.
Martinook is centering Foegele and Maenalanen on a line at practice, which looks to be a candidate fourth line. Maenalanen played on the Finnish 4th line at worlds and scored a lot of points from there, much like Warren Foegele’s history.
Not sure who the other nominally “4th line” is (on team “Grit” or team “Grind” lol), but would think Wallmark and PDG are likely skating on it.
1) I think there was an urgency ever since they gave Skinner away. We have little scoring. A large portion of this teams scoring potential is from players who have little time in the NHL. Rask’s injury just adds to the issue. 50/50 on Faulk trade but we already back ourselves into a corner.
2) I think Walmark wins the position. He already proved himself.
3) The problem occurred before Rask’s injury. Rask is very sound defensively. We have some great players, just not enough proven talent.
I am quickly loosing respect for this management team. How did they not know this injury would shut down a player. If it happened within the last two weeks, okay, but if not, you have got to be kidding me. The fact they never told us when, makes me feel they knew about it earlier.
We should be good D, questionable goal keeping, and many unproven forwards.
Do they make a move for a forward, I doubt it. This is so opposite of what I expected. Let’s spend zero money.
Last year I felt we would be competitive, then the Darling implosion. This year I think we took all our scoring away and are relying on the young guys. I always wanted them to have a chance. This year I do not believe we will be competitive, which means we will probably lead the division. Why in the world did we not go out and get some serious scoring. We have a owner with deep pockets who told us he wanted to make a winner. Is that what the moves have indicated.
Nothing has changed, it is praying that some players outperform. What will make it fun is routing for the young guns.
I think you are on to it in your last two sentences. The Canes have a lot of young talented players. It’s time to see what they can do. Unless a player like Max Pacioretty would agree to come to Carolina and sign and extension, why would you do it? Carolina isn’t exactly where players are dying to be. Ferland could be a one year rental.
The Canes have four young players I want to see get a shot in the NHL. Svechnikov, Necas, Foegele, and Wallmark. Unless you can get a proven NHL player, why short one of these kids? No one left unsigned is good enough to not give the young guys a shot. Let’s see what they can do. Faulk is still there to trade in a month or two if need be.
I will admit I am not a Victor Rask fan but I do see the merits in his consistent neutral zone and defensive zone play. That being said this loss definitely hurts the Hurricanes in the SHORT term in regards to matchups. However in another way I think it is a mediocrity sheltering move. To explain – think back to LAST year when everyone was excited to see Jordan Staal be the matchup guy and then our saviour 4C Marcus Kruger could be the other shutdown line. I think relying on a 4th line (usually the least skilled players) to eat up a chunk of ice time especially against other teams 2nd lines is a recipe to limiting your offense.
Sure Necas and Aho will get BURNED by Crosby, Malkin, Stamkos… the list goes on. But there will be times where Necas and Aho as centers in turn burn those superstar players. All important experiences in growing these players into ELITE top 6 centers. The future rides on those two anchoring separate scoring lines so I say let them both learn to face tough competition. I would of course see Necas being more sheltered but I think despite Aho being in his first year as full time center he should be ‘thrown into the fire’ so to speak and given every bit of tough matchups that the Staal line will not get.
Also it means Svechnikov also gets thrown into the fire because he will likely start on Jordan’s line and be forced to play against top competition as well. Necas line will probably be the only one getting more sheltered matchups.
I expect this to be a recipe for a lot of losses this season and a lottery pick but for once in a long time this organization has very high-end talent and all they need is some experience to work out the kinks before they help the Canes compete for a cup (:
This team is a train-wreck!
Who thought we’d be missing “The Doctor” so much?
We needed a top line C, and Rask wasn’t even a solid 4th line center… NOW IT’S WORSE!
Add to THAT…Skins and his scoring-GONE for diddly-squat!
I thought RF was cheap -HE WAS-
The committee has LEARNED NADA from the tightwad mentality.
Do we need Hughes so bad that we have to tank again?
Did i miss the first game already? How did I miss the train launch?
Sorry but even without Rask I will never miss the Doctor. He did some things well but he was probably the definition of mediocre and inconsistent I hope Bill Peters has fun continuing to use him all season long in Calgary.
You don’t get Filet Mignon from puppies, no matter the breed.
puckgod, I’m just going to forgo whatever I was about to say in response, and just keep that under my list of most darkly hilarious quotes ever. Thanks for making my afternoon.
We don’t need filets, this is barbecue country.
Ok, maybe I’m inflating theconspiracy theory regarding Rask’s injury, nevertheless I think the situation has been pourly handled and think there are deeper layers to the story.
I wanted to see a new owner build a winning team in Raleigh. I thought TD wanted that too, but his moves are not consistent with building a 2019 playoff candidate.
Whew! Not one preseason game yet and the season is a tank. Glad everyone is not so angry.
https://mynhltraderumors.com/five-teams-who-missed-the-playoffs-last-season-that-should-make-it-and-five-who-made-it-that-might-not/2018/09/17/
They are, however, consistent with a new owner giving all the young playrs a chance to better evaluate what the team needs.
It almost certainly means another year of April golf courses, but maybe that’s the only way out of he perpetual mediocrity. I can live with that if we get some electrifying performances from young guys eager to impress and do not end up in the 10th place again.
The success of the Canes this season does not depend upon Viktor Rask. He is slotted as a fourth liner. Yes, he would have further responsibilities in the faceoff circle, but he’s still a fourth liner. Canes fans are more obsessed with the bottom three forwards than any team I’ve followed. The top six forwards are far more important. Nothing has changed there.
For this team to succeed they need two things. First, a significant improvement in goaltending, and second, for one or more of the talented youngsters to come of age a little sooner than normal.
Rask is replaceable. Wallmark could be every bit as good. No, he hasn’t wowed me, but neither has Rask. Wallmark needs to be solid, not great. Not a lot to ask from a guy of his experience.
I am going to re-watch “Miracle On Ice” to keep my hopes up.
A lot of doom and gloom/conspiracy theories. Some of you can really use anything to say how cheap and terribly run the Canes are. This is a new impressive step in the quest for positivity.
Victor, get well soon buddy!
I do find it interesting that Vic’s hand slicing tanked our season. Most of the fans were happy he was a healthy scratch last season but now he is a quality asset that we just lost a whole season because he lost some time.
The Canes have traded away 3 guys with proven NHL goal scoring and experience, Skinner, Lindholm and DR. (not counting Kruger). They’ve signed a total of 0 NHL forwards.
This moves Rask up in the NHL experience pecking order, the rest are kids with little to no NHL experience. They may pan out and all is well, but they are more likely to hav growing pains, in which case another season of disappointment awaits.
Rask was the most expensive complementary player on the roster and if insurance pays his salary it was cost effective to not address his injury until now.
The Canes have the lowest payroll in the league and did not do anything to address their goal scoring and goaltending issues.
I just can’t put a positive spin on it. I’m glad others can and I hope you are right.
The test starts tonight.
Well if you insist on using ‘proven’, it is a lot harder to put positive spins on things. Outside of Fleury, Marchessault and Neal was anyone on Vegas proven last year? How about Columbus the year they broke 100 (obviously they have Panarin now so it’s a bit different). ‘Proven’ is nice to have but is not a necessity for playoff hockey. We have a mix of unproven talent and skilled veterans and I for one will love Rod’s cooking process. But I totally understand everyone killing their expectations so as not to be disappointed. Keep that bar low, friends.