On December 11, the Daily Cup of Joe entitled, “Looking backward, looking forward” broke the upcoming Carolina Hurricanes schedule into two sets of games.
The first set of games featured six out of seven games at home leading up to the Christmas break and theoretically a chance for the Hurricanes to capitalize on home ice and move up in the standings.
The second set of games starting after the break shifted to the road for six out of eight games and figured to be a tougher stretch to move up.
Not according to plan, the Hurricanes just completed the home-heavy stretch of seven games with a 2-4-1 record. The Hurricanes salvaged something from three consecutive weeks by winning the last game of the week but have still been negative in all three weeks and have in the process have fallen to .500. That .500 record is four points fewer than the team’s record at this time in the 2017-18 season and more significantly is six points out of a playoff spot (adjusting for games played).
Put bluntly, the Hurricanes dug themselves a hole in December and again face an uphill climb coming out of the Christmas break.
The positive is that the standings are bunched enough that an extended 8ish-game winning streak does the trick in terms of changing the complexion of things. The negative right now is that the team has done very little to suggest that an eight-game winning streak or something similar is possible.
At the end of the day, winning streaks in the NHL are about finding a rhythm and run of consistently good play coupled with a little bit of timely luck. But favorable schedule can sometimes play a role too. Unfortunately, the Hurricanes just burned through their most favorable stretch of schedule near-term and now face an extended run of road hockey through mid-February.
As noted above, the Hurricanes play six of their next eight on the road and have a good mix of tough opponents in Washington, Columbus and Tampa Bay.
That stretch is followed by a tough home set against Buffalo and then Nashville over the weekend.
Then it is back to the road for four of the next five.
Then again, the team gets two quick games at home over a weekend with tough opponents in Las Vegas and Calgary.
Then the Canes go back on the road for five straight.
That set of schedule sees the Hurricanes play 15 road games to only 7 home games before the schedule tilts back to home ice in mid-February.
When one nets it out, the Hurricanes will need to find a higher level of play and consistency in a hurry to avoid seeing the season die in the winter like it has in recent years. If the team is unable to do that, they will again face long odds trying to make up a ton of ground in two little time with less than a third of the season remaining.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Can this team leverage the good vibe from Saturday’s win and the three-day break to find a higher gear that propels them upward in the standings during the winter months that have been the death of recent seasons? Of was December a missed opportunity that spelled the beginning of the end for playoff hopes in 2018-19?
2) Who has the guts to predict a Hurricanes surge coming out of December and heading into January that charts a different course for the 2018-19 season?
Go Canes!
You can’t win 8 games in a row without winning the first one (or in this case the 2nd one) – let’s just play the Caps tough tonight and see what happens. Our goaltending has to be excellent or we have no chance.
As for a prediction: nothing happens in a vacuum. There are likely to be injuries, poor play, other teams falling out of contention, etc., that will lead to trades. I’m predicting a big trade somewhere and an active trade deadline.
(Having said that, Nylander has 2-pts in 10 games so careful what you wish for.)
1. December was a (bad) miss of a great opportunity. And it wasn’t so much that we lost a few games we also looked ugly in a few of those losses. December also cemented the Jekyll/Hyde nature of this team – while every teams comes out flat or has the occasional bad game we do it too often.
The team tends to come out flat after a 3-day break – let’s start by breaking that pattern and playing a strong game against WSH.
2. We have to be in the one game at a time mode – win one game and move to the next. I really don’t know what it will take for a surge – the team has shown it can be very, very good at times but not since the start of the season for multiple-game stretches.
Certainly too good of a team to crumble and land a top 3 pick, yet not good enough right now for a playoff spot…same as it ever was. Only difference from years past is that Dundon is not a status quo guy.
An entertaining Whalers win aside, not sure there is a January/February surge with the current mix. I see a couple of shake-ups via trade to show signs of confidence in the players and fan base for the second half (possibly sending out someone we like for a ‘game changer’). Worse case, it doesn’t work this year and we land some assets to load up next year and beyond when we are more ready to be contenders in the division/conference.
That said, if we miss the playoffs it’s because of the last 6 weeks.
The grump in me says:
How do we know TD is not a status quo kind of guy? He’s been worse than status quo, he’s downsized the coaching staff and the roster payroll,. He traded away contracts that were too expensive.
The only contract that he took on was to sign Calvin as a UFA (incidentally the best Canes contract of the off-season).
So sadly I doubt that TD is that much of a mover, more of a shaker.
But I hope you turn out to be right and that TD has the combination of insights and commitment to swing a good trade for the team.
Either one of the RHDs for a decent forward or an RHD + Staal for a difference maker forward or forward and a first round pick, or Cliff Pu plus a 2nd, third and 6th round picks for Teresenco.
I see a 10th to 12th place finish looming. The team is behind last year’s pace and if you discount the initial adrenaline W surge out of the gate the team is well below .500.
I can’t see this roster go on a run, as much as I’d like to.
If I were TD I’d start auditioning for spots right now.
Bring up Checkers that are performing well, give them a run of 3 to 4 games, and put them in their natural spot in the line up, not on the 4th line. If you have to sit PDG, McGinn or another member of the two-way players club who haven’t scored since the 80s, so be it.
I think it is important to do the auditions now, while games still matter. If you wait until the games become irrelevant you may not get an accurate read on the players.
This can achieve any of 3 things:
* The players infuse energy into the team and the W percentage increases.
* Management can evaluate what the team has for next year when many of these kids may have to carry the load.
* The players get their rookie mistakes out the way now and the team manages to properly freefall into a good draft lottery position.
The 2019 draft is supposed to be one of the best ever, the RFA/UFA market is unusually promising and there are some players in Clt that may be a season, or even half a season, of development from being able to take on roles and responsibilities with the club.
This summer is perfect if TD truly wants to retool the roster and change things up.
I have given up playoff hope for the season, Canes, please proof me wrong.