On October 23 I wrote an article previewing the Canes stretch of schedule for the front part of November. That stretch that just ended featured 13 straight games against teams that had missed the playoffs for 2018-19. As such, that run of games figured to be favorable for continuing to push farther above .500. The Hurricanes finished only a treading water-ish 7-6 during that run. My target beforehand was 8-4-1.
Right now, the Hurricanes are at the same time good position but also in danger heading into the next stretch of schedule. Adjusted for games played, the Hurricanes have a three-point cushion above the playoff cut line. But what lies ahead is challenging. I think the Hurricanes home match up against Nashville on Friday is a bit one because it is followed quickly by tough road match ups against Tampa Bay and Boston. Only three of the next ten games are at home including a five-game western road trip. The stretch also features a healthy helping of teams that are good or better.
On the one hand, I think playing .500 hockey for a tough stretch of schedule can be acceptable. On the other hand, pushing farther above. .500 is always the goal. I think something like 5-4-1 or 6-4-0 would be decent.
What say you Canes fans?
1) What do you think was a reasonable for points/record for the just-completed stretch of 13 games against a favorable schedule?
2) What would you put as a target for points/schedule in the next 10 games with many on the road or against tough opponents?
Go Canes!
Glad you brought this up Matt. The November performance is concerning.
1) The team should have been 10-3 or 9-4 in the stretch. I believe the Canes were the favorite (I don’t bet so I don’t actually check these things) in 12 of the 13 games. Losing 5 games in which you are favored is not great. An honest assessment would be that the Canes are likely in competition with Philadelphia and Toronto for the two wild-card spots.
2) Your target of 5-4-1 is realistic, maybe a bit optimistic. Unfortunately four of the five teams on the road trip are playing well, so even going 1-3-1 would be respectable. As you mentioned, the game tonight against Nashville is more important because of the upcoming schedule. Being six games above .500 after the Colorado game means the team treaded water for seven weeks. If that is the case, the Canes will have little margin for error.
Of course there are some things that could propel better results. Niederreiter and Staal are going to score more at some point. Even Martinook will put up a few goals. Though Hamilton and Svech are going to score less so it could be a wash. I think the best hope is that Mrazek has a stretch of good hockey. He hasn’t been bad, but he hasn’t been consistently for any stretch.
Well said, I think 8 / 5 was the minimum we needed to get out of the stretch, and there certainly were games that could and should have gone the other way.
At least the Canes have been a second half team for as long as I can remember and typically at this time of year we have been well outside a playoff spot.
This team has not quite put it all together except for portions of games, so collectively the have more to give, the question is whether or coaching staff can squeeze more out of the roster or management can make changes to optimize the roster
If we’re still 6 games over 500 in January I hope the team will trade a pick or two + a Checkers player or one of TVR or Fleury (preferably Gardner, but I don’t see anybody taking is contract) and get one of the top RFAs (I don’t want to jinx it so I have not looked to see who is available).
Our first round picks outside of SVech have been pretty diappoiting so say the least so maybe use one to get an established player to add punch to the offense and who might be willing to sign a new contract if things go well.
All that being said, the focus now must be on avoiding a slide and at least tread water against tough competition.
Breezy. This is not specifically about your idea as much as the general belief that teams need to make a “big move” after the New Year to go deep in the playoffs. The evidence is that this is a 50/50 proposition at best.
Last season St. Louis acquired Del Zotton in late February—he played 7 regular season games and wasn’t in the playoffs. Meanwhile, Vegas, which had been a Cup finalist in 18 landed the biggest fish in Stone and then was out of the playoffs.
In 2018 Washington acquired Kempny—a solid add, but hardly equivalent to the Lightning acquiring McDonagh and Miller or San Jose acquiring Evander Kane. Tampa did win two rounds and San Jose one, but it is hard to argue that the trades were a big reason why.
Think about when the Canes traded Eric Staal to the Rangers. New York didn’t make it out of the first round.
The Canes Cup run was helped by late season additions. So I can understand Canes fans who are a little more fond of the idea. But the truth is that the “big addition” for the playoffs is a widely held belief. The actual results suggest it is not nearly as important as most fans think.
That is a good point, it is hard not to be affected by the Canes’ 2006 addition.
I think what they did right back then was to identify a candidate that really could help the team and bringing that guy on board early, I think in mid-January, giving him time to gel with the team well before the playoff season started.
So I think if the Canes management identifies a player that is a high probability to strengthen the team they should pursue that player in January or early February, not wait, and obviously there is no guarantee there is such a player out there.
You are right that deadline deals have not always panned out, just look at Columbus’s splurge with Duchene and RDZ, I was sure that was going to work, because they were two thirds of a pretty formitible line for the Sens. I think Columbus made a mistake, they barely ever played the two together.
It’s always fun but not always accurate to speculate.
This is the time of year when teams own their record and their results. We are a .500 team – capable of playing strong hockey and winning, capable of playing strong hockey and losing. We have won when we play poorly. But we 7-7 in the past 14 games and there is no reason for us to be saying we should beat PHI or NYR even though we lose to them. Own the record/results.