Today’s Daily Cup of Joe offers an honest state of the Canes.
Worth noting is that though I try to consider all information, avoid the despair of recency bias that bad losses bring and be even-handed, the tone of an article like this is no doubt affected by the most recent games which include two bad losses in three games.
Let me start by saying that the current iteration of the Carolina Hurricanes is not a playoff team.
This is not to say that the team will not make the playoffs. Nor is it to say that the team is not talented enough or good enough to make the playoffs. Rather, I think the version of this team that rides ups and downs and maybe lacks a repeatable formula for winning consistently will have a difficult time beating out enough of the teams in the mix in the Eastern Conference. I think the last couple playoff spots will go to teams that can find a level of consistency that mixes very good stretches with still pretty good for lesser stretches. For the Hurricanes to be one of those teams, they will need to find a higher gear than the current one that is full of ups and downs.
But here’s the thing…The 2018-19 Carolina Hurricanes did not look like a playoff team for much of the season either. And this team is in a better position than that team was at this time. But that team did find that higher gear and take a step up. The 2018-19 team became better but maybe more significantly, it became more consistent such that even the lesser efforts still produced winnable games. That transformation did not so much seem to build gradually but rather just happen. As long as the team is still in the pack of teams trying to win the final playoff berths, such a step up by is definitely possible.
Interestingly, I actually think the 2019-20 team is more talented than the 2018-19 team, but there are couple key differences. The 2018-19 team had the blue line as a consistent strength. Especially with Dougie Hamilton’s injury, Brind’Amour is trying to make the defense work, but it just is not the every game strength that it was in 2018-19 both in terms of top end play but also the depth. Further, the late version of the 2018-19 team had an intensity such that the group regularly outworked opponents and had an every shift focus and attention to detail. One of the greatest flaws with the current team is its lack of attention to detail.
So what does it take for this team to chart a different course up and into the playoffs? While I do think adding a defenseman who meshes somewhere in the top 4 could upgrade the defense and decrease the number of break downs, I also think that taking that step up will require the entire roster. Some of the forwards who float around a bit in the defensive zone need to add every second focus defensively. And the team in total needs to become more difficult to play against.
We are nearing crunch time for the playoff chase such that the pressure to find a higher gear is gradually increasing.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Do you think it is possible for the current iteration of the Hurricanes even with the ups and downs have what it takes to make the playoffs?
2) What 1-3 changes do you think are most critical for finding a higher gear and more consistency yet in 2019-20?
3) To what degree do you think a trade of two are a necessary part of the push up into the playoffs?
Go Canes!
1). Yes they have what it takes, but it isn’t clear that players know what it is.
2). They need leadership in the locker room. Most importantly they have to care deeply about the team, more than their next contract or playing time or stats. They need to believe in RBA system and stick with it no matter what. Work with the coaches to make adjustments when necessary that are within the system.
3) A trade will be helpful if it contributes to 1) and 2) More so than replacing one body with another body e.g. who has 5% better shooting accuracy.
1. This team, different than last season, lacks the ability to shut down the opponent in the 3rd period when holding a lead. That absence does not bode well in terms of progressing into the playoffs.
2. The biggest need appears to be better team defense, not just better play from the current blue line. (This was evidenced by St. Louis’ first goal two nights ago when a small rebound from Mrazek was easily handled by the Blues player who was standing alone alongside of our goalie.) However, I still argue that the absence of a Ferland-like player is the bigger need. Toronto was said to have the same problem. Their addition last night of Kyle Clifford was their attempt to address that need. It will be interesting to see what that does for the Leafs.
3. Trades will be necessary to make this team capable of getting into and beyond the first play off round because of the quality of the top 6 teams in the Metro. Something; some combination of players, prospects, picks will have to go to make this team substantially better. I suspect Tulsky has analyzed what we need better than I ever could. Hopefully the cost of whatever that is, can be done without mortgaging the future.
1) Of course they have what it takes—but so do the other teams they are competing with for those three playoff spots (3rd in the Metropolitan is still available). What it takes to make the playoffs is at least average talent and better than average goaltending or above average talent and average goaltending. Tactics help some, so coaching is important. Most think RBA is doing the right things—though at some point if he doesn’t give Reimer the biggest load there will be concern.
2) I don’t think “changes” are needed. Adding Niederreiter last season was important, but no more important than Aho/TT on the PK, Faulk/Pesce becoming arguably the best shutdown pairing in the league for the month of February, and both goalies playing above average. If Reimer (or possibly Ned being called up) can steal a game or two and create a 5-wins-in-6-games scenario, then the Canes will be fine.
3) This is getting redundant. The Canes are battling Columbus—they haven’t added any players. The sole reason the Blue Jackets are competing is that they stuck with Merzlikins. The rookie goalie didn’t have a win in his first 7 starts. Now he is almost unbeatable—winning 9 of the last 10. Columbus added at the deadline last year. But lost Panarin and Bobrovsky from the season-long roster and Duchene and Dzingel from the playoff roster. They added one core player in Nyquist. Otherwise they are playing rookies and “AHLers.”
A quick hit here –
I remember Peters’ first two years – “0 for October” and the next season a fall off in November. While neither season was salvaged the bleeding, at least, was stopped…by bringing up hungry players from CLT (Slavin, Pesce, Ryan, PDG). Shake up the roster a bit?
If the ups and downs continue this team will not make the playoffs. Somehow they have to find their identity. Right now their identity is a talented team that doesn’t bring it every night. A trade for a top 4 defender would help. At this point Slavin and Pesce are their only legitimate top 4 guys. Edmundson can work in a pinch, but the other three are not good enough. Goaltending, well Mrazek, is an issues, but I don’t see a solution to that this season.
I think a hungry guy from Charlotte would help. Unfortunately, the guy everyone wants, Gauthier, hasn’t shown a lot of hunger when called up. Gauthier play was more like a guy afraid to make a mistake. While I would like to see more hunger, it’s not like the bottom 6 guys are the problem as it applies to the team’s character. The promlem, IMO, are the young stars. Svechnikov, Necas, and even Aho are more interested in scoring than winning. It’s a normal thing for players, particularly ones that talented, to think their way is best. They have the stats to back it up, right? It never works. Maybe this team just needs to blow it and miss the playoffs so that these guys get back with the program.
Again, recency bias has everyone a little worried right now, especially me, but there is plenty of reason for optimism. The biggest reason for hope is that neither PHI or NYI are playing particularly well right now either and both are “feeling it’ as much as we are, and can CBJ really continue to play this well? I have my doubts. So we really just need to get back to the hockey we’ve played most of the year (and not over the past 3 weeks).
Can we? I’m not sure. We may really be starting to see all of the ripples from losing Dougie, and it’s showing more on defense and in net than on offense. I don’t think we need to do anything major but maybe raleightj is on to something with his idea of calling up some energy from CLT to shake things up a bit and breath new life into what appears to be a listless group right now.
More than likely a trade is coming. LA-TOR just broke the ice. Maybe we’ll get Martinez.
1. Yes this team should make the playoffs.
2. Change #1 – The Canes have to find a way to improve in the first period
of games and get off to better starts (a symptom of a young team? Our
forward group is the second youngest in the NHL). Only 5 teams have given
up more goals in the first period. When we score first we have won 22 and
lost only 3.
Change #2 – Reimer has outplayed Mrazek and deserves to be the #1. If
Reimer stumbles then Ned deserves an opportunity.
Change #3 – Our face-off win percentages are very good except for two
glaring areas that are poor – defensive zone draws and shorthanded draws.
My theory is that is due to not having a good right-handed face-off
forward. This weakness needs to be addressed by adding a player.
All of the above concerns are fixable.
3. I would trade for Detroits’ Luke Glendening. A RH forward that is very good on draws, very sound defensively, plays with grit and has leadership-veteran qualities with a reasonable salary. A trade with Buffalo for RHD Brandon Montour could make sense to fill the void of the Hamilton injury.