With the team’s recent struggles that mercifully ended with a win on Thursday night against the Flyers, I have been thinking about the current roster and where it needs to be better. What has been striking during the Hurricanes’ losing streaks, especially the most recent one, has been the team’s ability to alternate between seemingly playing well but just not being good enough and then throwing in an occasional train wreck. The latter could be attributed to youth or just timing, but the volume of losses where the team seemingly played fairly well and put forward the effort but still lost is in some ways more of a concern. Is the team just not good enough? Quite possibly yes. The team is deeper than it has clearly improved in terms of depth, but it is not clear that it yet has enough talent to slot players correctly.
So today’s Daily Cup of Joe goes through the current roster and attempts to slot players on where they would fit onto a ‘peak’ Canes team defined as a team that is a regular playoff entry with enough talent to potentially go deep into the playoffs.
Carolina Hurricanes goalies
Cam Ward — Backup: He performed admirably in that role early in the season, and also proved capable of taking the reins at least for a short stretch. As a veteran and good locker room presence, Ward brings extra benefits in a limited role. In addition, his success in the playoffs suggests that if forced into action in the postseason, he would not be fazed by the enormity of the situation such that he wilted simply because of the pressure.
Scott Darling — N/A: To be clear, I am basing this specifically on play during the 2017-18 season. As such, if given the choice and no contract situation to retain Scott Darling, I would have to pass. But important to note is that Darling had a strong track record as a backup in Chicago, so if he could regain that level of play, he would at least be a capable backup.
Defensemen
Jaccob Slavin — 1st pairing: To be honest, his 2017-18 season has not matched his 2016-17 season. He started strong and has been strong again of late but had more of a lesser stretch in the middle of this season than he saw in 2016-17. But even still, Slavin is a capable top pairing defenseman who can play against the other teams’ best and at least survive.
Brett Pesce — 1st pairing: Pesce has been a bit steadier than Slavin during the 2017-18 season and rates similarly. I would not put him (or Slavin) in the elite category, but I think Pesce is capable of holding his own against other teams’ top scoring lines.
Justin Faulk — Offensive #5 defenseman: Even with a down year offensively, Justin Faulk is on target for about 35 points. With a decent knack for stepping into the play on the rush to shoot and a big shot on the power play, Faulk has the potential to reach the 15-goal level again. As such, he is a capable offensive defenseman. The downside of Faulk’s game is his defensive play. Dating back to last season, he just is not quite up to par defensively to play regularly in the top 4 of a good team. It shows in his minus 23 for 2017-18 following a team worst minus 18 in 2016-17.
Noah Hanifin — Offensive #5 defenseman: As a young player only in his third year, Noah Hanifin is at a different stage development-wise compared to Faulk, but in terms of slotting him into a good NHL lineup right now, I think he is quite similar. Hanifin’s game has taken a nice step forward offensively in 2017-18, and while not elite his mid-30s pace for scoring is capable of filling an offensive #5 slot with a player physically capable of stepping up into the top 4 as an injury fill in if necessary.
Hanifin makes for a good chance to point out that I am NOT projecting what players might become but rather evaluating what they are right now.
Trevor van Riemsdyk — All-around #5 defenseman: Trevor van Riemsdyk has proven to be a solid addition by Ron Francis. He has been a steady presence in the third pairing all season. First, he helped provide a stable environment for Haydn Fleury to get his skates under him as a rookie. Then van Riemsdyk provided a stable situation for Hanifin to grow offensively. In the case of Hanifin, the situation was a stark contrast to a 2016-17 season that featured a revolving door next to him in the third pairing.
Haydn Fleury — Learning #6 defenseman: Haydn Fleury has proven capable of playing at the NHL level, and on many nights he shows the potential to become more. But on a good NHL team with a solid and deep lineup, players like Fleury are ideally pushed down to the bottom of the depth chart where they learn on the job and are elevated only when they earn it.
Klas Dahlbeck — Serviceable #7 defenseman: In a limited role as a #7 defenseman, I think Klas Dahlbeck has had a reasonably strong 2017-18 campaign. He has proven capable of stepping into the lineup after an extended layoff and being at least capable. That is not an easy task. That is really all one can ask for that role.
Netting it out
When one works through my ratings for goalies and defensemen, it is not hard to find a problem. The team is currently short three top half of the roster players.
I see the team as:
Goalie
Starter: ________
Backup: Ward
Defense
1st pair: Slavin/Pesce
2nd pair: ____/_____
3rd pair: Fleury or Hanifin/Faulk or van Riemsdyk
#7: Dahlbeck
While it is reasonable to project that the Hurricanes do have what it needs for a solid second pairing in-house, just wishing forward into a positive future and then counting on that is one of the problems that has reared its head intermittently during the 2017-18 season. So the positive is that the Hurricanes have depth to the tune of arguably four players who could be good #5 defensemen. That makes for strong depth and balance and also the potential to withstand injuries to key players. The negative is that though all have the potential to be a top 4, I am not sure any really qualify right now.
The goalie situation is complicated and will arguably be Francis’ biggest decision point again next offseason. Ward has been at least as good as expected in transitioning to a backup role, but that is not the same as saying he is a capable starter on a good team now that he is 33 years old. And Darling could well rebound and be a #1 or at least a #1A/#1B, but as of right now, he is very much a dice roll.
What say you Canes fans?
1) Do you agree with my assessment of the blue line that says the team currently has a bunch of players who have the potential to be more but are fairly categorized as solid third pairing defensemen right now?
2) Is it fair to say that the Hurricanes do not currently have a player that you can rightfully count on to be a #1 for the 2018-19 season based on what we have seen thus far in 2017-18?
Go Canes!
I can’t say that I agree with you, Matt. I really liked Bill’s idea of breaking up Pesce and Slavin last night. Slavin and Faulk meshed nicely. Slavin played brilliantly. Konecny had to foul him for the Flyers’ only goal. He later had to literally hold Slavin down to take him out of the play.
Faulk immediately responded to being free of his drudgery of wet nurse duty paired with “not-ready-for-prime-time ” Fleury. Faulk was looking like the Faulk of old.Welcome back, Justin! We missed you!
Paired with van Riemsdyck, Fleury almost looked like an NHL calibre defenseman. I said “almost “. Whatever Ronnie sees in this young man will be ruined if he is forced to continue at this level. He is in danger of going the way of Ryan Murphy. Mark my words.
Klas Dahlbeck fits nicely with TVR. Two defensive minded d-men can be very effective.
We really looked great last night because our forwards decided to back check. It was poetry in motion. More than once I saw a Cane doing one on one or one on two battle for the puck in our end. If the Cane lost the battle, there was a Cane swooping past to grab the puck and start the attack. Heck! It wasn’t more than once, it was constantly! It drove the Flyers crazy. I was on my feet cheering at the TV.
They are playing as a team!
This exercise of evaluation is futile if we only look at each player’s individual performance. We must look at how each player fits into Bill’s system.
Goalkeepers are a part of the team. They are part of Bill’s system. I agree with many of the rest of the guys here. Let’s see how they do now that the team is playing as a team implementing Bill’s very effective system. Remember the axiom, the best defense is a good offense. I believe that if we keep it up, we are the “Overwhelming Underdogs! “
Oh! I would be remiss if I failed to mention how well Pesce and Hanifin work together. They look as if they have been skating together for years. Noah seemed more relaxed exercising his considerable offensive potential. A team with two Justin Faulk type talents? Scary.
Last night I saw something else I haven’t seen from this team in quite a while. Last night, I saw a Cane dive to the ice to push the puck to a teammate for a breakaway to the enemy net. I saw it more than once.
Wow!
The Canes are happenin’.
I disagree with Pesce he is more of a 3rd Dman he has not played as strong this year as last year.
Hanifin is all over the map sometimes he plays like a #1 sometimes a #7. Be interesting to see how he plays next season.
Faulk has been a disaster. Seems very slow footed and positionaly is an absolute mess. He needs to work his ass off in the offseason. Come back with some passion. Plays very complacent.
If you have two Captains it really mean you have none!
Pick a leader.
I went back and forth on Pesce. I think he is the steadiest/most consistent of the Hurricanes defensemen (even over partner) Jaccob Slavin. I think that makes him capable as a solid #2 especially if paired with a more dynamic first pairing partner (basically what Hanifin becomes if he continues his growth offensively but more significantly finds a higher gear on an every night basis defensively). That said, Pesce is probably the least dynamic of the group.
So I called him a #2 and stand by that, but I do also see the argument for instead slotting him as a #3 or possibly really good #4.
I agree that he is very consistent player however he is not a physical player and offensively he disappears most nights. Last year his first pass out of our zone was spot on. This year he has not been as sharp. I think on this team he is a #2 but in NHL terms
he slots more of a #3-4.
1. I disagree in that #1 defensemen need to be scorers. I have mentioned before that Ryan Stimson has done fascinating work about playing styles. D-men who are strong in their own zone but don’t often get on the score sheet are not as valuable as d-men who are merely solid but put up 40+ points. Look at last night’s game–the first three goals all had an assist from a D-man. What I am positive about is that Slavin has the skating to drive offense and Pesce has shown more willingness to attack the past month. If both can get close to 30 points this season, then I would argue they are #1. Other than that, I would argue we have four #4s, two offense minded and two safer but less dangerous.
2. If the team in front of them plays well, then I am fine with Cam and Darling with a 46/36 game split. And yes, I would give Cam the extra 10.
Agree with the goalie assessment.
Defense:
Slavin/______
Hanifin/Pesce
Fleury/TVR
I dont believe we are too far off on D.
I cant wait for the offense. Slight sarcasm since we will have 1 top 3(Aho), 3 top 6 (Staal, TT, Williams), 2 top 9 (Skinner, Lindholm) and a 4 4th liners (Rask, McGinn, Nordy, Stemp), 2 13th forwards (Ryan & PDG), and one prospect with not enough time to grade.
I agree with your statement that “we are not too far off on D.”
I feel strongly about leaving the 2nd pairing completely empty based on 2017-18 play, but at the same time, I think all of Faulk, Hanifin, Fleury and possibly even van Riemsdyk have the potential to be at least a 2nd pairing defenseman and possibly higher. Faulk actually did it already but has regressed defensively since the departure of Sekera. Hanifin very clearly has top 4 and even top 2 potential, but he just is not there in terms of playing 20 minutes per night against other teams’ best forwards. Fleury is too early to tell, but he has the physical tool set and is having a decent even if not spectacular rookie season. As a slightly older (at 26) player, van Riemsdyk is maybe the most overlooked but just maybe he could be a steady #4 with the right partner.
The gap right now continues to be “what the Hurricanes hope or project to be” and the “actual TODAY reality.” Though there continue to be reasons for hope, they have yet to close that gap on the blue line.
I agree with what you are saying.
I wonder how much Carlson from the Craps will cost. He could be a solid RHD to add actual defense and some offense from the right side.
save some money by trading Faulk and TVR. Replace TVR with McKeown. McK and Fleury have good chemistry. Fleury might even feel comfortable and play better with his old partner back, instead of his current “defensive” partner. If McK doesnt look solid, go get Hjalmarsson at the TD (he’ll be a rental at that point).
I agree with these comments. There are much higher ceilings; the issue has been consistency. After the last few games, I’m starting to think that Hanifin is going to wind up being a very high-end offensive-defenseman that ct talks about.
The one thing we don’t seem to talk about given how the league has changed, is the general concept of toughness and nastiness. I’m thinking about a Phaneuf/Chara/Gudas that would not be afraid (and might even relish the chance) to level someone driving the net or skating between the circles.
Our defense needs a player like that and Fleury of all our players may grow into that more than anyone else on our roster (other than Dahlbeck). I think Hanifin also starting to show more of that from time to time. It’s a good thing. Opponents need to “have their heads more on a swivel” in our end.
Regulars here might remember I think Pesce is underrated. It seems to be happening again.
While his skating isn’t as impressive as Slavin or Hanifin, and he doesn’t have Faulk’s shot, he has equal offensive upside from his combination of skills.
In fact, since February 1 he has 7 points (3 and 4) in 14 games. That 40 points a year pace is where I think he consistently performs. Especially if Carolina adds another dynamic forward. Because I realize it is a chicken/egg issue. Pesce’s assist last night was due to Williams great hands.
On a more productive team it is reasonable to think all of Hanifin, Slavin , and Pesce will produce 8-10 goals and 35-40 points. In fact due to PP time Hanifin might have a 15 goal ceiling.
In any event, Pesce is a top pairing D and I think will become a good scoring D. Keep watching, I think it is happening despite the team’s recent struggles.
Agreed CT. To me, Pesce has had the most consistent year… fewest “oops” moments. He always is strong, confident and looking for his shot… and the defense is there! Like Slavin, I think both of these are fine as a top 2. the scoring will come (maybe is starting now after these two games).
Faulk has had a tough year defensively and offensively. Has had too many games where he seemed disinterested (I say seemed because we really don’t know what is going on with him and I’m hoping he was just struggling with issues we will never know)… all that said, last night he showed a strong and heavy defensive game. IMO, the best all year. There were several times he crushed the guy with the puck to stop the advance and sometimes create a take away. That was nice to see him use his strength because he has that lower body strength that can be a force.
I like the idea for the article but interesting I can’t say I agree with some of the assessments.
For goaltenders your guess is as good as mine to be honest. Ward would seem to be the ideal backup/1B moving forward. Who becomes the #1 guy (jeeze part of me is having some foresight of a 37 year old Cam Ward STILL being our starter) beats me!
As for the defenseman I actually have a little more faith than you in both Faulk and Hanifin. If you are talking about solely this year maybe I agree with your perspective, but thinking about just how good these guys are now (including Slavin and Pesce) and thinking about how much they can learn by the time they are 25-29 in their primes as defenseman I am excited for the future.
I see all of Slavin, Faulk, Hanifin, TVR, Jake Bean (sooner than later), Mckeown and Fleury as NHL calibre dmen. I see Mckeown, Fleury and TVR as potential “elite” 3rd pairing guys that can play up in the lineup. The rest I see as top 4 calibre with only Faulk being the guy i’d say would be better served on a “2nd pair” or on a pairing that doesn’t see a steady dose of the top lines. With Hanifin’s raw talent and hopefully he is still going to put on more strength I gotta say his ceiling is still being a franchise #1 dman. Slavin and Pesce are modern shut down defenseman and even if they never become serious offensive threats overall that top 4 (with Hanifin and Faulk) boasts a lot of scoring potential down the road.
If there is ONE thing missing from the d-corps it is an element of having one really physical mean dman. I think Fleury and Pesce given more development could end up filling those roles.
Overall I am a super pessimist regarding the Canes forward corps, but despite some setbacks this particular season I am a huge optimist regarding the Canes blueline moving forward. Not only do I think the current group features potentially 5 keepers, but I think there are another two potential ones on the way. In a world where the bare minimum of great dman is enough and luxury might be better served traded for assets, it’s possible Carolina has 7 top 6 calibre dman (in 1-2 years) in which they have the potential to trade up to 3 from a position of strength.