The completion of 42 games of the 2017-18 season has provided a decent volume of information on the viability of the Hurricanes hopes of making the playoffs. I think the return thus far leans positive but also recognize that nothing is decided and that the outcome could tip either way.
The completion of half of a season of hockey also pushes the team closer to the next off-season and provides more input into how that could play out in terms of player costs, team needs, etc.
Today’s Daily Cup of Joe takes a short diversion from the here and now of the 2017-18 season and looks at five situations that General Manager Ron Francis will likely face this summer.
1) Re-signing the current third defense pairing
The big item in this regard is the new contract for Noah Hanifin. I think his new contract is become trickier by the day. On the one hand, he is on pace for a solid 14 goals and 40+ points and as of today added “NHL All-Star” to his resume. On the other hand, he did not stick in the top 4 and right now he is basically a good offense-leaning third pairing defenseman with upside from there because of his young age and experience level.
If he prices as a burgeoning top 4 defenseman who also produces offensively, his price is probably in the same range as Slavin and Pesce. If instead, he gets paid as a young player who has yet to really arrive as evidenced by his third pairing status, then Hanifin probably nets a bridge type second deal for 2-3 years in a $2.5-$3.0 million range somewhat similar to what Lindholm and Teravainen received at a similar point in their careers.
So if you stretch a little bit on the low and high end, the potential range is a huge $3 million spanning $2.5-$5.5 million. On top of that Francis (and Hanifin’s camp) need to decide if now is the time to lock him up long-term with a 6-7-year deal similar to Slavin’s and Pesce’s or if a more step-wise and cautious 2-3-year approach is wiser.
Based on the range of possibilities and the difficulty of the decision and potentially the negotiation because of it, how Francis handles Hanifin’s next contract is significant.
Top billing is for the rising young star, but not to be ignored is Trevor van Riemsdyk. Francis’ Justin Williams deal is significant both on and off the ice, but through 42 games, the best deal in terms of performance relative to cost is probably the acquisition of Trevor van Riemsdyk. He has been solid in his third pairing role and also helped provide a stable situation for young defensemen Haydn Fleury and Noah Hanifin who have benefited from it. Van Riemsdyk is earning a very modest $900,000 in 2017-18 but will be due a raise. The fact that van Riemsdyk is playing in the third pairing and is not really producing offensively (currently on a 16-point pace) should limit the salary for his next contract even with arbitration rights and should make it possible to keep him at a salary that fits into a third pairing slot.
How Francis handles the contract situations of Hanifin and van Riemsdyk will impact the lineup for 2018-19 and both the lineup and salary structure well beyond that.
2) The strange interplay of Scott Darling and Cam Ward’s status
Scott Darling is signed for three more years after the 2017-18 season. He is not going anywhere. Cam Ward, on the other hand, becomes an unrestricted free agent at the end of the 2017-18 season after completing the second year of his two-year $3.3 million per year contract.
Ironically, the probability of Ward being re-signed depends partly on his own play but quite possibly also on the play of Scott Darling. If Ward keeps the starting job, plays well through the end of the season and helps propel the team in the playoffs, there is obviously a very good chance that he is re-signed. If instead, Ward falters a bit in the second half and finds his way to being a capable #2 but not a candidate to be a starter at 34 years old, then I think Ward’s fate actually depends on Darling’s play. If Darling rebounds and looks like the starter that Francis through he acquired, then Ward fits nicely as a veteran #2. But if Ward looks like a #2 and Darling does not rebound to play like a #1, then I think Francis could be forced to use Ward’s slot to shop for a younger, possibly higher-end 1B to hedge the possibility that Darling just is not the answer.
The situation could become an easy one if Darling and Ward both play well in the second half of the season, and the team makes the playoffs. But if the goalie position proves to be a detractor again and the team misses the playoffs, then how Francis addresses this situation and more pointedly Ward’s slot will be near the top of the list of decisions that he will need to make this summer.
3) Sebastian Aho and Teuvo Teravainen
The situation with Aho and Teravainen next summer is very similar to the one for Slavin and Pesce last summer. Both players are already signed through 2018-19 at modest salaries. Aho is on his entry-level deal and earning only $925,000, and Teravainen is on his second deal at a still modest $2.86 million. But like Slavin and Pesce, both players slot near the top of the team’s depth chart. Aho and Teravaine rank first and second respectively in terms of scoring on the Hurricanes, and the duo represents two-thirds of the team’s top line. The expectation is that Francis will move to extend Aho early just like he did with Slavin and Pesce, and he could choose to do similar with Teravainen too. With Aho and Teravainen on target for mid-60s points, the price of each’s next contract seems to be escalating by the day. If one or both pushes up to 70+ points could that push their salaries up into the $7 million or more. It is not an apples to apples comparison, but Leon Draisaitl just re-upped for a big $8.5 million per year coming off a 77-point season.
I think the perfect balance for the Hurricanes could be a modest second half of the season for Aho and Teravainen that sees each finish at about 60 points with that being enough to help boost the team into the playoffs. That could set the stage for next deals in a range comparable to or not wildly higher than Slavin and Pesce’s.
Regardless, just like with Hanifin the potential range of outcomes seems wide right now. Could Aho push up to a Draisaitl type of level and command $8 million or more? Or could he slow just a little and then price out at something similar to Slavin’s salary. Just like with Hanifin’s situation, the swing could be as much as $3 million.
4) The captains
Perhaps the most significant decisions that Francis will need to make this summer will be whether to push forward largely with the same core group or whether he wants to shake things up a bit and retool. If Hanifin, Teravainen, Aho and Lindholm all come in high with their next contracts, Francis could be forced to cut cost elsewhere, but even if that does not happen, I think next summer is the time for him to make long-term decisions on Jeff Skinner and Justin Faulk. Both are signed through the 2018-19 seasons but are scheduled to become unrestricted free agents after that. If Francis wants to keep one or both of these players in the fold long-term, next summer would probably be the best time to re-sign them versus playing a game of chicken approaching their unrestricted free agency. If instead, Francis wants to go a different directly, next summer could be high time to get a good return for one or both in trade.
Whereas some of the other situations above are mostly a matter of negotiating and how the players’ 2017-18 seasons finish up, the situations with Faulk and Skinner are very much either (re-sign) or (trade) them.
5) How much room to leave for Charlotte Checkers
Faced with filling multiple depth forward roles before the 2017-18 season, Francis (probably with some input from Bill Peters) chose to build out a veteran fourth line with a checking focus. With the likely departure of Stempniak, Jooris coming off contract and the potential to swing a trade or two, Francis should have the option to keep the fourth line intact, rebuild it with other veterans or leave room for players rising up from the AHL. By next summer, Lucas Wallmark will have more professional experience, and Warren Foegele whose skill set projects well for a checking line will be one year deep in his professional career. If injuries open up some NHL ice time for the AHLers in the second half of the 2017-18 season, Francis might have a better gauge on those players’ readiness. But regardless, Francis will need to make a decision next summer on how much to keep/add veterans versus how much to leave room for the youth movement.
6) Bill Peters
To be clear, I lean positive on Bill Peters right now, but at the end of the day, the proof is in the results. If the Hurricanes make the playoffs, Peters obviously stays regardless of what happens in the playoffs simply because the team will have taken a significant stride in returning to the playoffs. But if the Hurricanes miss the playoffs, I think Francis must do his first serious review of Peters with consideration for whether Peters is the best options for a head coach to lead the team back to the playoffs.
7) One big addition?
If all of the re-signings come in high, Francis could find his off-season budget for new players somewhat limited. And if the team pushes up into the playoffs, that might be completely okay. But IF the Hurricanes miss the playoffs and if Tom Dundon (assuming he is the new owner by then) is willing to invest in winning now, Francis could have an important decision to make looking for one difference-maker that can finally push the Hurricanes above the playoff cut line.
If the goaltending does not work out, does he go back to the goalie well trying to add the best 1B he can find for a medium price? Does the team still need one more difference-maker, ideally a playmaking center, to get the offense to where it needs to be? Or…?
It is not certain that Francis will have much for budget given what will be needed short-term and long-term to keep the team’s young core players, but if Francis does have budget and uses it, the move will be an important one.
What say you Caniacs?
1) Which of these situations do you see as being most critical?
2) Of the batch of restricted free agents due significant raises (Aho, Teravainen, Hanifin and potentially Lindholm), how do you think each will shake out in terms of contract term and salary?
3) Of the long-timers noted above (Faulk, Skinner, Ward), do you think any of the three will depart? Which, if any of them, would you consider parting ways with?
Go Canes!
Let me start by saying my optimism has returned–it had dipped along with the “coaster ride” that hit another big drop the past two games. I think the Canes are top 1/3 of the league for the remaining 40 games. They make the playoffs, which puts a different light on many of the 7 decisions.
1)Three are equally important: goalies, Teravainen and Aho, room for a call-up.
If my optimism is warranted, that means both Ward and Darling find a decent form. At that point, I think Ward is re-signed for 2 more years. That allows the young goalies in the system (I expect one of Booth, Helvig, or Makiniemi to become Darling’s back-up in 2 to 3 years) time to develop.
Aho is going to be the center-piece for Carolina for the next decade. He probably gets max years at around 6.5M. TT will be a bit trickier. But the market value might play in RF’s favor. The most recent similar signing, Marchessault, and Arvidsson’s signing before the season could keep Teravainen’s contract around 5M. In any event, both need deals of at least 6 years.
I have two concerns with conventional wisdom about being active buyers. 1) There isn’t a preponderance of evidence that it works. For every Vanek (which really wasn’t even that big of a signing) there is a Shattenkirk or Hanzal where it is questionable if the addition made the team any better. 2) If new ownership only means available money, that will be a small positive. However, if Dundon becomes more hands-on, as some articles have suggested, it is not likely to go well. Activist owners are usually a significant detriment. At that point the only thing Dundon will do is add Dunning to Kruger already on the team.
2) For Aho and TT, see above. Hanifin is signs between Pesce and Slavin. Lindholm should get a contract in the 3.8M range.
3) The problem with Faulk and Skinner is the same thing that happened with Duchene, trade value is much lower for a player in the last year of a contract. So I could see a sign and trade deal. My guess would be Faulk since the D depth is reasonable in the organization. Although, a true hockey trade of Skinner (just for an example Skinner for Pacioretty) is possible. Based on what he has said about the importance of the Triangle to his family, I think Ward stays either as a player of on the coaching staff. I am pretty sure he signs one more contract.
Finally, there needs to be room for the prospects, the ones in Charlotte as well as Necas. Neither Stempniak nor Jooris is re-signed. So there will be some room. My guess is that Nordstrom is the toughest decision. Can Foegele/Wallmark add scoring upside while being the same responsible and active every game player that Nordstrom is? Most of us seem to think so. It will give some insight into BP and RF if Nordstrom is not re-signed.
I posted 10 mins later, didn’t see your post as I was busy writing. Good to see we agree on TT and Aho.
ct you don’t think Nedeljkovic could come up to the NHL sooner than Booth, Helvig, or Makiniemi?
I don’t. He is having a better season in Charlotte, but seems to have poor stretches. I have only seen him in person once—first game of season. He looked a little overwhelmed. While it is only juniors, Helvig seems to play his best in clutch games. Booth is faring better in Florida tha Ned did. But I am far from a goalie guru.
Interesting topic.
1. Been chanting this lately like a mantra: goaltending is the critical one. There will be more data available at the season’s end but as I see it, the team would benefit from acquiring a younger goaltender instead of re-signing Ward. And how that plays out I really don’t know. Darling’s long deal is very limiting money spending -wise.
2. Aho will be signed long term. GMRF would be crazy not to. It is not only about the points: 60+ points vs 70+ points this season doesn’t matter that much. It is the potential, flexibility in his role (moving Aho to center) and on ice leadership that matter more. By on ice leadership I mean his competing level and professional touch he lives day in day out. I don’t think Aho is after money but the contract has to be fair compared to other team’s top players. Eichel’s 10 mil won’t happen but 5 mil per season won’t happen either because he is clearly worth more and the prime years are ahead. I do predict he will hit a 100 point mark a few years from now given good linemates (who can net a goal from his passes) and a winning team. If he plays center a few points less can happen. High value target and a face of the franchise’s future (together with Slavin, Pesce, Hani). His draft pick number I don’t think matters anymore. NSH all-star goalie Pekka Rinne was an 8th rounder, 258. overall, can you imagine?
Teuvo Teräväinen is entering his prime and for him the season’s points matter more in measuring the upside than in the case of Aho. He lacks some characteristics Aho has: a great forward but not THAT competitive of a nature, great hockey IQ but not off the charts like Aho. Better shot for sure. I think Turbo will be re-signed at 4,5-5 mil per year for an extended period of time. Can be 6 mil max. I expect him to be 60-70 points constant producer. Rask is 4 mil so compared to that Turbo is more but not Aho range.
Will skip Hanifin in details but Hanifin I hope gets a long contract and Lindholm is (I am sorry to say) expendable via trade. I don’t think Lindy, as much as I like him, has had a linear development upwards and a general manager of a hockey team might seek to replace him. Charlotte is full of prospects who could fill Lindholm’s slot. Now he is good value but I don’t see him getting a long 5-6 mil/year deal. Number 5 draft pick should have already given better proof point-wise. He has played 5 seasons in NHL including this and never produced 50+ points (now in the pace short of 50).
3 I am being nasty and would trade Skinny and Faulk. Ward to be replaced, too.
Well, I know this won’t be popular but I’m not completely sold on Aho as being as dominant a force as maybe most others are in this group. There is no doubt he’s going to be at least a #2 line center but beyond that, I still think it’s a bit up in the air as to exactly how good he can be. Is he going to be as good/better as Backstrom? To me, that’s the player he reminds me most of and if he equals Backstrom’s talent and success, then yes, he’s a #1 and eventually worth a large contract. But he’s not there now and I still seem him a year or two away of achieving that level – if he’ll get there at all. My question is he destined to be a star and a dominant #1 center, or a very good NHL #1 but not one of the top 10 – 15 centers, or one of those tweeners between a #1 and a really, really good #2. In my mind the jury is still out. Go ahead. Bash away.
The thing is that Aho has to be signed before he is in his prime. Even though Aho, his agent and GMRF would decide to wait one more year Aho’d still be 21 years old or just turned 22 if the signing would be as late as the end of summer 2019 that I see less likely to be the signing point but even in that case predictions has to be made of his ceiling. Raleightj said, and I agree, with Aho it is about signing for his upside.
One thing to console you if and when you are doubtful (every right to be) is that NHL playing style evolution rewards players who play with an instinct and Aho has top 10 talent in that matter. Aho needs to add strength like everyone in his age and work on his shot. He is an excellent skater and forechecker but those things will improve further, too. Pittsburgh game highlight reel material will be a norm. Can be if Necas takes 1C Aho will be 2C but then the Canes have their top 6 center problem solved.
Then there is the reality: Carolina Hurricanes will never let Aho go after his ELC so he’ll get the contract anyway. It will be reasonable to the both parties, the org and the player.
Good to have different points of views on the table here at C&C 🙂 Makes me to try to justify better.
I forgot one important thing: the marketing value of a player. Aho already draws ppl to see the elf play hockey (or outside of the area: e.g. to buy a NHL TV or other broadcasting license) and given the North American “hero” or star culture this thing is considered, too, in contract negotiations.
I think we need to lock up Aho for a Skinner type deal, if not longer. Turbo really depends on Turbo. Im not sure how many 6 million players we can afford. I believe we go the 2nd year on Turbo to make sure he is growing as a scorer.
The bigger conundrum is Faulk and Rask. Hanifin is a top 4 but he not with Faulk. Faulk needs to go. We need another veteran RHD or McKeown with Fleury. Rask is expendable with Aho getting a shot at center and Wallmark coming up.
The biggest conundrum is the goalie. I can’t imagine a team taking a long term chance on Ward. But if they had a short window before a prospect comes up, he could be their number 1. Edmonton comes to mind, maybe Islanders. I can’t see us spending 8-9 million between 2 goalies. It’ll be interesting.
Lindholm should get a Rask type deal but shorter term. So if Lindholm replaces Rask’s deal and Hanifin replaces Faulk’s deal we’ll be equal in contract numbers.
Wallmark, Foegle, Zykov, Kuokkanen, McKeown/Carrick should get a shot at the squad.
As a correction, Faulk’s contract runs until the 2019-20 season. But that does fit into the discussion on extensions for Aho, Turbo, and Hanifin. With Aho, you are clearly signing for his upside and he should easily go over $7M with term. Turbo is coming off a bridge contract. With a more uncertain and possibly more limited future – $5.5-6.5 with a little less term. His decision to accept the bridge deal is proving to be a smart one that he can build off.
I had heard that Hanifin’s agent did not want to talk extension during the offseason, and an ASG appearance with a scoring burst proved that to be a smart strategy. I don’t want to guess what level he will sign – but he has definitely improved his bargaining position.
These decisions have to be considered of not only what Faulk and Skinner will sign for – but whether they will be signed. Both have played their entire careers on a team that hasn’t made the playoffs. Even if we are on an upwards trajectory, it would not be surprising if they want to upgrade to a team more likely to be regular playoff and SC contenders. I wouldn’t blame them. But if they are not going to re-sign then do we trade them
I trust Ward will re-sign – the level based, as you say, on what happens with Darling the remainder of the season. I remain very hopeful that Scott will find his mojo back.
And that leaves me with Lindholm who may prove to be the odd man out. Lindy is a tough and good player – but he has a position that an up-and-coming Checkers player may be able to fill with more upside (Roy, Foegele, Zykov, even Gauthier if he continues his recent path).
But clearly Peters likes the way Lindholm plays – but is his time coming to an end with the Canes. I have really liked what Peters has done with the team the previous 3 years. But I think Peters’ future is iffy, even if the team reaches the playoffs. The team has to do something in the playoffs.
I previously mentioned Skinner and Faulk possibly being disappointed with their experience on the team – I wonder how disappointed Francis may be with the team. I think he believed last year and again this year that this is a playoff team – in 6 weeks last year he went from planning to be a buyer at the trade deadline to being a seller. That had to wear on him. There are a lot of good coaches out there, and there may be one better suited to taking the Canes, as they are currently constituted, to the next level. And I am not even mentioning Dundon – who truly has to be a results-oriented executive to get to where he is. He may demand more.
Aho, Turbo and Hanifin will likely receive long-term deals. The bottom line is we just can’t keep all of today’s roster (and give them all raises) given the salary constraints.
The value of Aho, Turbo and Hanifin outweighs Skinner, Lindy, Faulk and Ward getting extensions. We also have to financially consider completing the rebuild by adding one or two more key ingredients (players of certain skill we need).
The net result is we have to shed some parts to complete the rebuild.
Dundon strikes me as VERY MUCH HANDS ON… I think it is likely that, barring meteoric rise of the team, he will URGE CHANGES!
I’m talking ASAP! Despite the salaries to be negotiated, high-priced non-performing players could be jettisoned /traded IMO!
If things go no better (or downhill) I forsee a selloff before
seasons end.